Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve steady growth in the context of a warm winter, with a focus on brand strength and market expansion [3][4] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for FY25-27 have been slightly adjusted to 0.30, 0.35, and 0.40 RMB respectively, reflecting changes in revenue and expense rates [4][5] - The target price is set at 5.26 HKD, based on a 14x PE valuation for FY26 [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for FY23A was 16,774 million RMB, with a projected growth of 10.0% for FY25E, reaching 25,545 million RMB [4][8] - Operating profit for FY23A was 2,826 million RMB, with an expected increase of 8.3% for FY25E, totaling 4,762 million RMB [4][8] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for FY23A was 2,139 million RMB, with a forecasted growth of 14.3% for FY25E, amounting to 3,515 million RMB [4][8] - The company has a gross margin of 59.0% and a net margin of 13.8% for FY25E [4][8] Market Strategy and Initiatives - The company is deepening its collaboration with Harbin to enhance its market presence in Northeast China [4][5] - A new concept store was opened in Beijing to elevate brand visibility and consumer engagement [4][5] - The company is leveraging digital innovations, including AI in product design, to improve operational efficiency [4][5] - The management has shown confidence through active share buybacks, totaling 5,621 million shares since January 15, 2025, amounting to 209 million HKD [4][5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [6] Core Views - The report highlights that oil prices have slightly increased due to supply-side risks, and it remains optimistic about leading companies with strong fundamentals that are less correlated with oil prices, suggesting a bottom-fishing strategy. The report also emphasizes the importance of agricultural and food industry demand, which is more rigid, and recommends focusing on the agricultural chemical sector for performance recovery certainty [11][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Views - The report suggests a focus on leading companies with strong alpha characteristics, particularly in the agricultural chemical sector, due to their resilient demand [11]. - Recommended companies include: - Wanhua Chemical (600309, Buy): Core product MDI shows recent profit improvement, with upcoming petrochemical and new material projects [11]. - Huangma Technology (603181, Buy): A leader in specialty polyether, has entered a growth phase again [12]. - Runfeng Co., Ltd. (301035, Buy): A rare company with global formulation registration and sales channels [12]. - Guoguang Co., Ltd. (002749, Buy): A leader in differentiated formulations in the plant growth regulator industry [13]. 2. Oil and Chemical Price Information - As of March 14, Brent oil price increased by 0.3% to $70.58 per barrel, with U.S. crude oil commercial inventory at 435.2 million barrels, a weekly increase of 1.4 million barrels [14]. - Among 188 monitored chemical products, the top three price increases this week were: - Liquid chlorine (up 36.4%) - Sulfur (up 11.7%) - Sulfuric acid (up 9.7%) [15][16]. - The report notes that sulfur and sulfuric acid prices continue to rise due to strong demand during the traditional peak season, despite some replenishment of sulfur imports [15]. 3. Price and Spread Changes - The report lists the top three price increases for the week: - Liquid chlorine: 36.4% - Sulfur: 11.7% - Sulfuric acid: 9.7% [16]. - The top three price spreads that increased this week were: - Styrene spread (up 60.8%) - Succinic anhydride (benzene method) spread (up 37.7%) - Formic acid spread (up 10.7%) [19].

基础化工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 硫磺-硫酸继续上涨，关注具有长期逻辑的 涨价品种 核心观点 原油相关信息： ⚫ 原油及相关库存：2025 年 3 月 7 日美国原油商业库存 4.352 亿桶，周增加 140 万 桶；汽油库存 2.411 亿桶，周减少 570 万桶；馏分油库存 1.176 亿桶，周减少 160 万桶；丙烷库存 0.45259 亿桶，周减少 339.5 万桶。美国原油产量及钻机数：2025 年 3 月 7 日美国原油产量为 1357.5 万桶/天，周度增加 6.7 万桶/天，较一年前增加 47.5 万桶/天。2025 年 3 月 14 日美国钻机数 592 台，周度不变，年减少 37 台；加 拿大钻机数 199 台，周减少 35 台，年度减少 8 台。其中美国采油钻机 487 台，周度 增加 1 台，年减少 23 台。 价格变化： 价差变化： 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 ⚫ 项目进展不及预期；需求不及预期；海外销售不及预期；原材料价格大幅波动。 国家/地区 中国 行业 基础化工行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 17 日 看好（维持） | 倪吉 | 021-63325888*75 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve steady growth despite a warm winter, with a projected close to 10% growth in its down jacket business for FY25 [4][5] - The target price is set at 5.26 HKD, based on a 14x PE valuation for FY26 [4][5] - The company has actively repurchased shares, reflecting management's confidence, with a total of 56.21 million shares repurchased since January 15, amounting to 209 million HKD [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for FY23A was 16,774 million HKD, with a projected increase to 25,545 million HKD in FY25E, reflecting a 10% year-on-year growth [4][8] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 2,139 million HKD in FY23A to 3,515 million HKD in FY25E, representing a 14.3% increase [4][8] - Earnings per share are forecasted to be 0.30, 0.35, and 0.40 HKD for FY25E, FY26E, and FY27E respectively [4][5] Market Position and Strategy - The company is deepening its strategic cooperation with Harbin to enhance its brand presence in Northeast China [4][5] - A new concept store was opened in Beijing, aimed at boosting brand visibility and consumer engagement [4][5] - The company is leveraging digital innovations such as AI in product design, significantly reducing development time [4][5]

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 基本面改善已有呈现，供需两端均有亮点 ——2 月经济数据点评 研究结论 风险提示 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 17 日 | 陈至奕 | 021-63325888*6044 | | --- | --- | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 曹靖楠 | 021-63325888*3046 | | | caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860520010001 | | 孙国翔 | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | 结构上的积极变化有待政策进一步巩固— —2025 年 2 月通胀数据点评 2025-03-12 是否真的有"抢出口"？——1-2 月进出口 点 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the paper and light industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The light manufacturing industry index increased by 1.76%, outperforming the market by 0.18 percentage points, while the paper sub-sector rose by 0.21%, underperforming the market by 1.38 percentage points [1][13] - The report highlights that the prices of double-sided paper have slightly increased, while packaging paper prices have decreased [39] Summary by Sections Market Review - The light manufacturing industry index rose by 1.76%, ranking 13th among 28 first-level industries, with the paper sub-sector increasing by 0.21% [1][13] - The four major sub-sectors of light manufacturing, ranked by growth, are furniture, packaging printing, cultural products, and paper, with respective increases of 2.66%, 2.30%, 0.55%, and 0.21% [1][13] Industry Chain Data Tracking - The national waste price increased by 27 CNY/ton, while foreign waste prices remained stable [25] - The average market price for double-sided paper rose by 5 CNY/ton to 5450 CNY/ton, while white cardboard prices fell by 8 CNY/ton to 4310 CNY/ton [39] - The report notes a mixed profitability among finished paper products, with double-sided paper profitability increasing by 1-18 CNY/ton, while white cardboard profitability decreased by 3-9 CNY/ton [49][51] Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report recommends investing in leading companies in the integrated pulp and paper industry, such as Sun Paper (002078, Buy), and suggests that special paper companies typically experience profit expansion within six months after pulp price increases [3] - It also recommends companies like Xianhe Shares (603733, Buy) and Huawang Technology (605377, Buy) in the specialty paper sector, as well as Wuzhou Special Paper (605007, Hold) in the food packaging paper segment [3]

本周双胶纸价格小幅上涨，包装纸价格下 跌 ——造纸产业链数据每周速递（2025/03/15） 核心观点 ⚫ 本周轻工制造行业指数上涨 1.76%，跑赢大盘 0.18pct；造纸子板块上涨 0.21%， 跑输大盘 1.38pct。本周沪深 300 指数上涨 1.59%，轻工制造(申万)指数上涨 1.76%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.18pct，在 28 个申万一级行业中位列第 13 位；二级行 业中，造纸子板块上涨 0.21%，跑输大盘 1.38pct。本周轻工四大子板块按涨幅由大 到小分别家具、包装印刷、文娱用品和造纸板块，分别上涨 2.66%、2.30%、 0.55%、0.21%。 产业链数据跟踪 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 近期 Suzano 宣布 2025 年 3 月阔叶浆报价环比提涨 20 美元/吨，成本支撑下文化 纸、白卡纸有望延续价格修复态势，推荐林浆纸一体化行业龙头太阳纸业(002078， 买入)。同时回溯历史来看，特种纸企业在浆价上行之后的半年内通常会呈现出盈利 扩张，推荐特种纸领军企业仙鹤股份(603733，买入)，中高端装饰原纸龙头华旺科 技(605377，买入)以及食品包装纸细分龙头五洲特 ...

投资策略 | 定期报告 A 股延续强势，建议关注科技产业趋势的反 弹行情 ——策略周报 0316 研究结论 风险提示 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 16 日 | 张书铭 | 021-63325888*5152 | | --- | --- | | 17 | zhangshuming@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517080001 | | 薛俊 | 021-63325888*6005 | | | xuejun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515100002 | | 段怡芊 | duanyiqian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524010001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BVI649 | | 赵越峰 | 021-63325888*7507 | | | zhaoyuefeng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860513060001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BPU173 | | 港股表现强势，继续关注科技股中长期行 | 2025-03-09 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the automotive and components industry [5] Core Insights - February saw impressive year-on-year growth in overall passenger car sales, with a significant increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs). According to the China Passenger Car Association, wholesale/retail sales of narrow-sense passenger cars reached 1.767 million/1.386 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.8%/26.0%. However, there was a month-on-month decrease of 16.0%/22.8%. NEV wholesale/retail sales were 830,000/686,000 units, with year-on-year growth of 79.6%/79.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 6.7%/7.8%. The penetration rates for NEVs reached 47.0%/49.5%, up 12.0/15.0 percentage points year-on-year and 4.7/8.0 percentage points month-on-month [10][29][35]. Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report suggests continued focus on investment opportunities in the humanoid robot supply chain, with related companies expected to see both profit and valuation increases. By 2025, competitive domestic brands and new forces in intelligent driving technology are anticipated to expand their market share. Some central state-owned enterprises are expected to reverse their difficulties through reforms and enhanced external cooperation. Recommended companies include SAIC Motor, JAC Motors, BYD, Changan Automobile, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, GAC Group, Yutong Bus, and several others in the humanoid robot and technology supply chains [2][13][14][15]. Market Trends - The automotive sector's performance this week showed a 0.7% increase, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.6%. Among the secondary industries, the automotive sales and service sector (+1.98%), passenger vehicle sector (+1.69%), and motorcycle sector (+1.26%) performed well, while the automotive parts sector (+0.31%) yielded positive returns. The commercial vehicle sector saw a decline of 0.84% [17]. Sales Tracking - Preliminary statistics from the China Passenger Car Association indicate that from March 1-9, wholesale sales of passenger cars reached 403,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 26% and an 84% increase compared to the previous month. Cumulatively, wholesale sales for the year reached 4.268 million units, up 14% year-on-year. Retail sales during the same period were 364,000 units, a 14% year-on-year increase and a 52% increase month-on-month, with cumulative retail sales of 3.539 million units, up 2% year-on-year [27]. Industry Developments - Figure AI launched its humanoid robot factory BotQ, with an initial production capacity of 12,000 units per year, expected to expand to 100,000 units over the next four years. The factory's automation level will increase as the number of humanoid robots on the production line grows, laying the foundation for large-scale production. Additionally, the report highlights the launch of new models from various companies, including the Wanjie M8 and M9, which have received strong pre-order interest [11][12][38].

Figure 发布人形机器人生产线，继续关注 机器人及华为产业链公司 ——汽车行业周报（0310-0316） 核心观点 ⚫ 2 月乘用车整体销量同比表现亮眼，新能源乘用车渗透率快速提升。据乘联会，2 月 全国狭义乘用车批发/零售销量 176.7/138.6 万辆，同比增长 33.8%/26.0%，环比 1 月减少 16.0%/22.8%，2 月乘用车批发和出口销量创历史新高。全国新能源乘用车 批发/零售销量 83.0/68.6 万辆，同比增长 79.6%/79.7%，环比 1 月减少 6.7%/7.8%；2 月新能源乘用车批发/零售渗透率 47.0%/49.5%，同比提升 12.0/15.0 个百分点，环比提升 4.7/8.0 个百分点。受益于报废更新政策及置换更新补贴政策支 持、智驾平权拉动需求等因素，2 月乘用车市场同比表现较好，新能源渗透率快速 提升。出口市场同比稳步增长，2 月乘用车出口（含整车与 CKD）34.9 万辆，同比 增长 11%，环比下降 8%。 投资建议与投资标的 从投资策略上看，继续关注人形机器人链汽零投资机会，相关公司有望盈利和估值双 升；2025 年具备竞争力的自主品牌及在智驾技术 ...