纺织服装行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 美国消费龙头未来指引谨慎，关注关税推 进进度 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 通过观察以上美国消费龙头企业表现，总结来看它们对于未来财年预期大多较为谨 慎，其中关税压力和美国消费客群的消费降级为核心因素。另一方面，沃尔玛、露 露乐檬对于中国市场的表述则更为积极，我们推荐龙头运动服饰品牌公司安踏体育 (02020，买入)，建议关注李宁(02331，买入)、特步国际(01368，买入)和滔搏 (06110，增持)，同时也中长期看好经营韧性较强、具备全球竞争力的龙头制造企业 申洲国际(02313，买入)、伟星股份(002003，买入)、华利集团(300979，买入) 等。 风险提示：关税、全球经济衰退、地缘政治风险 注：沃尔玛 FY26 财报时间为 2025 年 2 月-2026 年 1 月，塔吉特、露露乐檬和达乐 FY25 财报时间为 2025 年 2 月-2026 年 1 月，耐克 FY25Q4 财报时间为 2025 年 3 月-2025 年 5 月。 国家/地区 中国 行业 纺织服装行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 08 日 看好（维持） | 施红梅 | 02 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 13.65 CNY, maintaining the rating from previous assessments [2][4]. Core Insights - The company has shown steady performance with revenue and net profit growth, achieving a revenue of 41.59 billion CNY (up 3.99% year-on-year) and a net profit of 7.12 billion CNY (up 15.04% year-on-year) in the latest report [9]. - The sales structure has been adjusted, and the commercialization and research and development are expected to make progress, particularly with the product Didasyn [7][9]. - The company has successfully entered nearly 600 hospitals with Didasyn and has conducted over 160 academic promotion activities, indicating strong commercial potential [9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 7.81 billion CNY, 8.91 billion CNY, and 10.49 billion CNY respectively, with an upward adjustment in gross margin [2]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 50.0% in 2024 to 52.9% by 2027, while net profit margin is projected to increase from 17.1% to 19.6% over the same period [7][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.83 CNY in 2024 to 1.22 CNY in 2027 [12]. Segment Performance - Finished drug revenue reached 25.22 billion CNY (up 8.42% year-on-year), while raw material drug revenue was 8.76 billion CNY (down 8.37% year-on-year) [9]. - Medical device revenue grew to 6.87 billion CNY (up 7.84% year-on-year), driven by market share gains and international expansion [9]. Market Position and Valuation - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 11.12 billion CNY, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 18.0 for 2023, expected to decrease to 10.6 by 2027 [4][12]. - The company is positioned favorably within the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry in China, with a focus on innovative drug development and commercialization strategies [4][9].

贵州茅台 600519.SH 公司研究 | 年报点评 业绩符合预期，看好中长期发展 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 据 24 年年报、25 年年度目标，略下调 25-26 年收入、毛利率。我们预测公司 2025- 2027 年每股收益分别为 73.20、81.42、91.00 元（原预测 25-26 年为 73.25、81.50 元）。我们维持采用 FCFF 估值法，预测目标价为 1853.36 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示：消费复苏不及预期、飞天批价大幅下跌、1935 增量不及预期、品牌力降 低、环境恶化风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 147,694 | 170,899 | 185,322 | 205,199 | 225,778 | | 同比增长 (%) | 19.0% | 15.7% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 10.0% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 103,709 | 119,689 | 126,970 | ...

传媒行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 快手加速 AI 布局，关注国内大模型发布动 态 ——AI 周度跟踪 2025 年第 4 期 核心观点 国家/地区 中国 行业 传媒行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 08 日 | 项雯倩 | 021-63325888*6128 | | --- | --- | | | xiangwenqian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517020003 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQP120 | | 李雨琪 | 021-63325888-3023 | | | liyuqi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860520050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQP135 | | 金沐阳 | jinmuyang@orientsec.com.cn | 执业证书编号：S0860525030001 | | | | 阿里发布多款大模型，AI 产业链持续景 | 2025-03-31 | | --- | --- | | 气：——人工智能动态跟踪 2025 年 3 月第 | | | 3 期 | | | GTC 大会重磅发布 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 24.38 CNY based on a PE valuation method, reflecting a 23x earnings multiple for 2025 [3][12]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 12.276 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.793 billion CNY, up 12.0% year-on-year [12]. - The company has shown resilience with stable growth in its core segments, particularly in laboratory services, which generated 7.047 billion CNY in revenue, a 5.8% increase [12]. - New order signings have rebounded significantly, with a year-on-year growth exceeding 20%, indicating strong future revenue potential [12]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 13.809 billion CNY in 2025, 15.721 billion CNY in 2026, and 17.988 billion CNY in 2027, with respective growth rates of 12.5%, 13.8%, and 14.4% [9]. - The company's net profit is expected to reach 1.893 billion CNY in 2025, 2.287 billion CNY in 2026, and 2.719 billion CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 5.6%, 20.8%, and 18.8% respectively [9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast is 1.06 CNY for 2025, 1.29 CNY for 2026, and 1.53 CNY for 2027 [9]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company operates in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry, facing increasing competition but also benefiting from a recovering investment environment in the sector [12]. - The integrated platform model of the company is expected to enhance its ability to meet global pharmaceutical innovation demands, supporting long-term growth [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 1853.36 CNY per share [3][5]. Core Views - The company's performance aligns with expectations, and there is optimism regarding its medium to long-term development [2]. - The company has slightly adjusted its revenue and gross margin forecasts for 2025-2026, predicting earnings per share of 73.20 CNY, 81.42 CNY, and 91.00 CNY for 2025-2027 [3][9]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported a revenue of 147,694 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 19.0%. The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 170,899 million CNY, 185,322 million CNY, 205,199 million CNY, and 225,778 million CNY, respectively, with growth rates of 15.7%, 8.4%, 10.7%, and 10.0% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 74,734 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 19.2%. The projected net profits for the following years are 86,228 million CNY, 91,960 million CNY, 102,276 million CNY, and 114,314 million CNY, with growth rates of 15.4%, 6.6%, 11.2%, and 11.8% [4]. - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 91.9%, remaining stable over the forecast period [8]. Revenue Breakdown - The company expects stable pricing for its flagship products while anticipating growth from non-standard and series products. The revenue from Moutai liquor is projected at 1,459.28 million CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 15.3%, while series liquor revenue is expected to reach 246.84 million CNY, growing by 19.7% [8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on dual drivers of product sales through Moutai liquor and series liquor, alongside channel collaboration between wholesale and direct sales, which is expected to support stable performance amid a challenging consumption environment [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve an EPS of 1.06/1.17 CNY for 2025-26, with a new forecast of 1.42 CNY for 2027. The target price is set at 56.18 CNY based on a PE ratio of 53 for 2025 [2] - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 22.63% year-on-year for 2024, reaching 27.985 billion CNY, and a net profit increase of 47.28%, totaling 6.337 billion CNY [9] - The company is actively advancing its internationalization efforts, with several products receiving FDA approval and significant licensing agreements contributing to revenue growth [9] Financial Information Summary - Revenue (in million CNY): - 2023A: 22,820 - 2024A: 27,985 (22.6% YoY growth) - 2025E: 31,684 (13.2% YoY growth) - 2026E: 35,553 (12.2% YoY growth) - 2027E: 40,900 (15.0% YoY growth) [4] - Net Profit (in million CNY): - 2023A: 4,302 - 2024A: 6,337 (47.3% YoY growth) - 2025E: 6,759 (6.7% YoY growth) - 2026E: 7,477 (10.6% YoY growth) - 2027E: 9,060 (21.2% YoY growth) [4] - EPS (in CNY): - 2023A: 0.67 - 2024A: 0.99 - 2025E: 1.06 - 2026E: 1.17 - 2027E: 1.42 [4] - Gross Margin: - 2023A: 84.6% - 2024A: 86.2% - 2025E: 84.5% - 2026E: 84.9% - 2027E: 85.4% [4] - Net Margin: - 2023A: 18.9% - 2024A: 22.6% - 2025E: 21.3% - 2026E: 21.0% - 2027E: 22.2% [4]

固定收益 | 专题报告 转债市场 25 年一季度回顾及展望 研究结论 风险提示 可转债风险暴露超预期；可转债强赎风险；数据统计可能存在遗误 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 08 日 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | 继续做波段，把握利率下行机会：2025 年 3 月小品种月报 2025-04-04 二季度债市或可乐观一点：固定收益市场 周观察 2025-03-31 央行多投放流动性了吗？：固定收益市场 2025-03-25 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 周观察 ⚫ 一季度权益市场，在政策和产业热点带动下，以科技成长为代表的中小盘显著占 优，而传统蓝筹板块则略显乏力。中小盘行情使得转债在一季度同样量价齐升，但 因估值偏高，表现相对较弱，除科技成长板块行情带动外， ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The report indicates that major US consumer companies are cautious about future fiscal year expectations, primarily due to tariff pressures and consumer downgrading trends in the US market. However, companies like Walmart and Lululemon express a more optimistic outlook for the Chinese market [3][23] - Recommendations include buying leading sportswear brand Anta Sports (02020), and considering Li Ning (02331), Xtep International (01368), and Tabo (06110) for buying or holding. Additionally, long-term prospects are favorable for resilient leading manufacturers such as Shenzhou International (02313), Weixing Co., Ltd. (002003), and Huali Group (300979) [3][23] Summary by Sections US Consumer Giants Performance - Walmart's FY26 revenue growth guidance is 3-4%, with a same-store sales increase of 23.1% in FY25Q4, driven by strong e-commerce and new store openings [10][13] - Target expects FY25 revenue growth of about 1%, with same-store sales remaining flat, facing pressure from tariffs and operational costs [14][15] - Dollar General anticipates FY25 revenue growth of 3.4-4.4%, with core consumers facing economic challenges and a notable trend of consumer downgrading [17][18] - Nike projects a mid-double-digit revenue decline for FY25Q4, with significant inventory issues and a 15% revenue drop in the Greater China region [19][20] - Lululemon expects FY25 revenue growth of 5-7%, with a strong growth forecast of 25-30% in the Greater China region [21][22] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a cautious approach towards US consumer giants due to tariff pressures and consumer behavior changes, while highlighting positive growth prospects in China for certain brands [3][23]

——AI 周度跟踪 2025 年第 4 期 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 看好 AI 新周期带动算力-算法-应用生态三端依次持续推进，我们建议增加港股互联 网板块配置仓位，核心推荐处于产业链前端，云消费弹性明显+算法具备优势的阿 里巴巴-W(09988，买入)，多模态视频生成模型技术全球领先的快手-W(01024，买 入)，以及卡位最佳社交场景，具备数据+应用生态优势的腾讯控股(00700，买 入)。 风险提示 传媒行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 快手加速 AI 布局，关注国内大模型发布动 态 行业发展及 AI 应用落地不及预期，假设条件变化影响测算结果，宏观经济风险，海外政 策风险。 国家/地区 中国 行业 传媒行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 08 日 | 项雯倩 | 021-63325888*6128 | | --- | --- | | | xiangwenqian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517020003 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQP120 | | 李雨琪 | 021-63325888-3023 | | | liyuqi@orients ...