Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a strong upward trend today, with all three major indices rising, led by the ChiNext Index, while brokerage stocks rebounded strongly and both the new energy and non-ferrous metal sectors surged [5][9]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.90%, the Shenzhen Component increased by 2.05%, and the ChiNext Index climbed by 2.74%. The Shanghai 50 Index was up by 1.09%, the CSI 300 Index increased by 1.54%, the STAR 50 Index rose by 1.35%, and the CSI 1000 Index saw a 1.36% increase. The total market turnover reached 2.18 trillion yuan, with 3,574 stocks rising across the market [9][5]. Sector Performance - On September 29, 2025, the leading sectors in the A-share market included comprehensive finance (+4.65%), metal materials and mining (+3.42%), and power and new energy equipment (+3.12%). Conversely, coal (-0.83%), banking (-0.48%), and social services (-0.14%) saw declines. In terms of concepts, lithium battery electrolyte (+7.69%), stock trading software (+6.77%), lithium battery anode (+5.82%), and lithium iron phosphate batteries (+4.99%) led the gains, while cultivated diamonds, superhard materials, coal mining, and poultry industries faced declines [9][5]. Market Drivers - The market's upward movement was driven by several factors, including the "New Energy Storage Scale Construction Special Action Plan," which aims for over 180 million kilowatts of new energy storage capacity by 2027, potentially driving an investment of approximately 250 billion yuan. Additionally, advancements in solid-state battery polymer electrolytes by Tsinghua University's Zhang Qiang team contributed to the surge in new energy sectors. The central bank's emphasis on utilizing securities, funds, and insurance company swaps, along with stock repurchase loans, also supported market stability [9][5]. Future Outlook - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the Chinese stock market, advocating for holding positions through the holiday and anticipating a favorable October market. The focus remains on technology as a key theme, with expectations for more incremental policies following the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session. The report reiterates the views from the "Source of Living Water - 2025 A-share Annual Investment Strategy" and "China Asset Revaluation Trio - 2025 A-share Mid-term Investment Strategy," suggesting that the key macroeconomic clue for 2025 is "the liquidity of currency," with a gradual recovery in the fundamentals expected to lead to a bull market [9][5]. Investment Direction - The report suggests continued focus on the technology sector and value-oriented investments that are gradually bottoming out. Specific areas of interest include: 1. Technology growth sectors, particularly "Double Innovation" and the Hang Seng Technology Index, as well as lithium batteries, military industry, and Hong Kong internet stocks. 2. Value sectors, focusing on industries with consecutive increases in revenue growth and gross margin over the past two quarters, such as fiberglass, cement, paper, fine chemicals, oil services, and medical services. 3. In the medium to long term, attention should be given to the non-bank sector within the slow bull market context [9][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and is maintained [8] Core Insights - At the 2025 Cloud Summit, Alibaba unveiled flagship models including Qwen3-Max, next-generation foundational model architecture Qwen3-Next, and a series of other models such as Qwen3-VL for visual understanding and Qwen3-Omni for multimodal applications. Additionally, the Qwen3-Coder programming model received significant upgrades [2][5] - The report highlights promising segments within the AI industry, including AI toys and tools, internet giants with advantages in traffic, models, and data, vertical sectors in advertising, e-commerce, and education that have successfully established business models overseas and are expected to replicate domestically, as well as AI+ gaming companies [2][10] Summary by Sections Event Description - Alibaba launched several advanced AI models at the 2025 Cloud Summit, including Qwen3-Max, Qwen3-Next, Qwen3-VL, Qwen3-Omni, and the upgraded Qwen3-Coder [5] Event Commentary - Qwen3-Max ranks among the top three globally, with over one trillion parameters and strong coding and agent tool capabilities. It is available for free experience on QwenChat and through Alibaba Cloud's API [10] - Qwen3-VL significantly enhances visual agent capabilities, allowing for interaction with computer and mobile interfaces, and excels in visual programming and spatial awareness [10] - Alibaba's open-source model matrix is the largest globally, with over 300 models and more than 600 million downloads, showcasing a comprehensive competitive edge across various dimensions [10] - The report suggests focusing on specific AI segments, including interactive AI products, large companies leveraging traffic and data, and gaming companies actively integrating AI [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the advertising industry [7]. Core Insights - In July 2025, the total outdoor advertising expenditure was 22.467 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 4% and a month-on-month decrease of 5%. Excluding scope and list price growth, the net value decreased by 10% year-on-year [2][4]. - Outdoor traditional media continues to gain traction, with July advertising expenditure reaching 7.106 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2% and a month-on-month increase of 4.0%. The net value, excluding scope and list price changes, increased by 3.6% year-on-year [10]. - The website, beverage, and entertainment sectors emerged as the main contributors to outdoor video media expenditure in July, driven by the "takeaway war" and summer effects [10]. Summary by Sections Outdoor Advertising Performance - The total outdoor advertising expenditure in July 2025 was 22.467 billion yuan, down 4% year-on-year and 5% month-on-month. The net value, excluding scope and list price growth, decreased by 10% year-on-year [2][4]. - Outdoor video media advertising expenditure totaled 15.361 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7% [2]. Channel Analysis - The expenditure on building LCD media decreased by 12% year-on-year and 17% month-on-month due to changes in media collection cycles. In contrast, electronic screen media saw a year-on-year increase of 14% and a month-on-month increase of 18% [10]. - High-speed rail video media advertising expenditure increased by 6% month-on-month due to heightened travel demand during the summer [10]. Industry Contributions - The top five industries for outdoor video media expenditure in July were websites (24%), beverages (23%), entertainment (8%), services (8%), and alcohol (5%). The website sector's share increased significantly from 3% in the previous year [10]. - The beverage industry's expenditure share rose to 23% due to high summer temperatures, while the entertainment and service sectors also saw increases in their advertising shares [10]. Outlook for Building Media - Building media maintains a high level of attractiveness due to its frequent exposure and precise targeting of high-consumption demographics. The report anticipates a recovery in advertising expenditure as the domestic economy continues to show signs of cyclical recovery [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the gaming industry [7]. Core Insights - The issuance of game licenses in September, with approvals for companies like Kaiying, Giant Network, and Point Point, indicates a positive trend in the new game cycle and overall industry prosperity. The performance of several new games, such as Giant Network's "Supernatural Action Group" and G-bits' "Staff Sword Legend," is expected to drive the product cycle and industry sentiment upward. The combination of new game cycles, favorable policies, and AI catalysis suggests that the gaming sector still has upward valuation potential, warranting continued attention to investment opportunities in this area [2][4][6]. Summary by Sections Game License Issuance - In September, a total of 156 game licenses were issued, including 145 domestic and 11 imported games. This brings the total number of domestic game licenses issued this year to 1,195, nearing the annual total of 1,306 from 2024 [6][9]. Market Performance - The gaming market in China showed a month-on-month growth, with August revenues reaching 29.263 billion yuan, a 0.61% increase from the previous month. The mobile gaming market accounted for 21.541 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.85% month-on-month growth [9]. New Game Launches - Several new games are set to launch or have recently launched, including Kaiying's "The Legend of the Adventure" and Heartbeat's "Yise," which quickly topped the iOS and TapTap charts. The report highlights a rich pipeline of upcoming games from major developers, indicating potential for revenue growth [6][9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral, maintained [7] Core Insights - The upcoming production of the fifth largest mine, West Simandou, is expected to significantly impact the iron ore supply landscape, potentially leading to a downward adjustment in iron ore prices to $75-$80 per ton [5][4] - Historical data suggests that the major four mining companies are unlikely to reduce production in response to the new supply, as they have previously maintained output despite price declines [5][4] - The four major mining companies are projected to increase supply by 1.1% and 2.9% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, indicating a continued growth trend [5][4] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - Pre-holiday inventory replenishment led to a temporary rise in steel prices, but limited sustainability in demand caused a subsequent decline [4] - Daily average pig iron production reached 2.4236 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.34 thousand tons [4] - Total steel inventory decreased slightly by 0.55% week-on-week, while year-on-year it increased by 9.24% [4] Price Trends - Shanghai rebar prices fell to 3,240 yuan per ton, down 40 yuan, while hot-rolled steel prices dropped to 3,360 yuan per ton, down 80 yuan [4] - The immediate profit for rebar steel is estimated at -37 yuan per ton, with a lagging cost profit of -42 yuan per ton [4] Future Projections - The West Simandou project is expected to reach full production capacity of 60 million tons per year within 30 months of its anticipated October 2025 launch [5] - The cash cost of iron ore from the West Simandou project is projected to be around $50 per ton, positioning it favorably within the global cost curve [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an investment rating of "Positive" for the traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) industry, indicating an optimistic outlook for the sector over the next 12 months [6]. Core Insights - The TCM industry is experiencing a resurgence due to supportive government policies aimed at promoting its development and modernization. The report highlights the importance of innovation in TCM as a key driver for high-quality growth [24][61]. - The industry is characterized by a comprehensive supply chain, from raw material production to manufacturing and distribution, with significant opportunities for growth in both domestic and international markets [19][28]. Summary by Sections 1. TCM Industry Overview - TCM is defined as medicines guided by traditional Chinese medical theories, primarily sourced from natural products, including plant, animal, and mineral-based drugs. It is categorized into five main types: raw materials, decoction pieces, formula granules, proprietary Chinese medicines, and injectable TCM [12][13]. - The historical development of TCM has undergone three major phases, including skepticism during the introduction of Western medicine, a resurgence in the 21st century, and recent government initiatives to modernize and industrialize TCM [15][16]. 2. TCM Policy Analysis - The overall policy direction is supportive, with multiple government documents issued to encourage the high-quality development of the TCM industry. Key policies include the "Opinions on Promoting the Inheritance and Innovation of TCM" and various local measures [24][28]. - Policies cover supply-side improvements, such as optimizing TCM registration and approval processes, enhancing talent training, and building TCM hospitals [28][32]. - Payment reforms are also underway, exploring payment methods that align with TCM characteristics, which could enhance the financial viability of TCM services [45][46]. 3. Future Development Trends - Innovation in TCM is identified as a critical factor for future growth, with a focus on developing new formulations and improving the sustainability of TCM resources [61][63]. - TCM is positioned to become a significant player in the broader health and wellness market, emphasizing preventive care and holistic health approaches [66].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the recommended stocks in the consumer sector, indicating a positive outlook for their performance over the next 12 months [10][11][12][13][16][21][22]. Core Insights - The report highlights nine advantageous sectors within the consumer industry, including agriculture, retail, social services, automotive, textiles and apparel, light industry, food, home appliances, and pharmaceuticals, with specific stock recommendations for each sector [3][6]. - The recommended stocks are expected to benefit from various growth drivers, including market expansion, product innovation, and operational efficiency improvements [10][11][12][13][16][21][22]. Summary by Sector Agriculture - Recommended Stock: Muyuan Foods (牧原股份) - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected at 227.9 billion, 413.8 billion, and 447.7 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 13, 7, and 6 [10][25]. Retail - Recommended Stock: Shangmei Co., Ltd. (上美股份) - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected at 10.9 billion, 13.6 billion, and 16.4 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 33, 27, and 22 [11][25]. Social Services - Recommended Stock: Core International (科锐国际) - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected at 2.95 billion, 3.68 billion, and 4.60 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 20, 16, and 13 [12][25]. Automotive - Recommended Stock: Xusheng Group (旭升集团) - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected at 4.6 billion, 6.2 billion, and 7.7 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 39, 29, and 23 [13][25]. Textiles and Apparel - Recommended Stock: Bosideng (波司登) - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected at 39.3 billion, 43.5 billion, and 47.5 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 12, 11, and 10 [16][25]. Light Industry - Recommended Stock: Pop Mart (泡泡玛特) - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected at 2.35 billion, 8.38 billion, and 12.19 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 35.7, 31.6, and 21.9 [17][25]. Food - Recommended Stock: Qianhe Flavoring (千禾味业) - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected at 0.50 billion, 0.42 billion, and 0.53 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 24.1, 26.9, and 21.4 [18][25]. Home Appliances - Recommended Stock: Roborock (石头科技) - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected at 20.47 billion, 28.87 billion, and 34.24 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 26, 19, and 16 [21][25]. Pharmaceuticals - Recommended Stock: Junshi Biosciences (君实生物) - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected at -1.30 billion, -0.91 billion, and -0.34 billion respectively, with a PE ratio of 66.3 for 2027 [22][25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the wind power industry [3] Core Viewpoints - The wind power industry is entering a new cycle of prosperity, with significant growth expected in both offshore and onshore wind projects, driven by domestic and international factors [10][12] - The second half of 2025 is anticipated to see a comprehensive release of performance, with three major catalysts identified: the initiation of deep-sea offshore wind projects, accelerated exports, and recovery in wind turbine profitability [19][102] Summary by Sections Medium to Long Term: New Cycle of Prosperity - Domestic wind power economics are significantly improving, with a positive trend in installed capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan [12] - The report highlights that overseas offshore wind power has vast potential, with countries in Europe and Asia-Pacific setting ambitious installation targets for 2030 [16][17] Short Term: Performance Release in H2 2025 - The report forecasts that wind power installations in 2025 could reach 110 GW, with onshore installations expected to hit 100 GW and offshore installations potentially doubling to 10 GW [22] - The industry is expected to enter a phase of accelerated prosperity, supported by the seasonal increase in project initiations [23] Catalysts for Growth - **Catalyst 1**: Acceleration of deep-sea offshore projects, with significant capacity planned across various provinces, totaling approximately 128.3 GW [28][32] - **Catalyst 2**: A turning point in offshore wind installations is expected in 2026, with domestic companies actively pursuing international orders [60] - **Catalyst 3**: Recovery in profitability for wind turbines is anticipated, driven by stable pricing and reduced competition [67][93]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] AI 产业跟踪：通义 Qwen3-Max 正式发布，引领 "参数革命"，持续关注大模型商业化进展 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 9 月 24 日云栖大会上通义千问重磅发布一揽子模型。其中 Qwen3-Max 正式发布， 系通义迄今为止规模最大、能力最强的模型。模型包含三个主要版本：Base（基础版本）、Instruct （指令优化版本）和 Thinking（推理增强版本）。 Qwen3-Max 正式发布定位旗舰，总参数超 万亿，主推 Coding 能力和 Agent 工具调用能力，综合性能宣布超过 GPT-5、Claude Opus 4 等国际顶尖模型，正式跻身全球大模型前三阵营。持续关注国内 AI Infra 厂商业务进展与投入， 看好 Agent 商业化元年及其投资机遇。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 宗建树 刘思缘 SAC：S0490520030004 SFC：BUX668 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 软件与服务 cj ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [8] Core Insights - The 25th China International Industry Fair highlighted the need to cultivate emerging industries and create new growth drivers, focusing on technology innovation, large-scale development, and application scenario construction [2][5] - Key areas of investment opportunity include the entire quantum technology industry chain, particularly quantum system platforms and applications, as well as the brain-computer interface industry chain and its downstream applications [2][10] Summary by Sections Event Description - The report discusses the opening of the 25th China International Industry Fair in Shanghai, emphasizing the importance of nurturing emerging industries and establishing a growth mechanism for future industries [5] Industry Evolution - The report notes that quantum technology and brain-computer interfaces are transitioning from laboratory research to practical applications, with significant advancements in hardware materials [10] - In the medical field, brain-computer interfaces can assist paralyzed patients in controlling exoskeletons through thought, while in consumer technology, they may change interactions with electronic devices [10] Policy Support - The report indicates that supportive policies are being implemented to promote future industries, with a focus on systematic layout at the national strategic level [10] - The report cites a joint opinion issued by multiple government departments aimed at fostering innovation and development in future industries [10] Future Industry Potential - The report highlights that future industries such as humanoid robots, brain-computer interfaces, the metaverse, and quantum information are still in their early stages, presenting significant growth potential [10] - It suggests that with strong policy support, these industries are expected to accelerate their development and become important components of China's economy [10]