[ T able_StockInfo] 2025 年 04 月 01 日 证券研究报告•2024 年年报点评 郑 煤 机（601717）机械设备 目标价：——元（6 个月） 买入 （维持） 当前价：15.39 元 煤机板块利润高增，汽零业务加速转型 | [Table_MainProfit] 指标/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 37052.04 | 39510.44 | 43662.71 | 50148.89 | | 增长率 | 1.73% | 6.63% | 10.51% | 14.86% | | 归属母公司净利润（百万元） | 3933.84 | 4282.83 | 4800.29 | 5525.07 | | 增长率 | 20.16% | 8.87% | 12.08% | 15.10% | | 每股收益 EPS（元） | 2.20 | 2.40 | 2.69 | 3.09 | | 净资产收益率 ROE | 18.55% | 17.08% | 16.57% | 16.46% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zhujiang Beer (002461) with a current price of 10.14 CNY and a target price not specified for the next 6 months [1]. Core Insights - The company achieved a significant increase in both volume and price, leading to a notable improvement in profitability for the year [1]. - The total revenue for 2024 was 57.31 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.56%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 8.10 billion CNY, up 29.95% year-on-year [3][8]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.70 CNY per 10 shares to all shareholders [8]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: - Revenue for 2024 was 57.31 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 6.56%. The net profit was 8.10 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 29.95% [3][8]. - In Q4 2024, revenue was 8.4 billion CNY, up 2.1% year-on-year, and net profit was 0.04 billion CNY, up 118.8% year-on-year [8]. - **Sales Volume and Pricing**: - The company sold 144,000 tons of beer in 2024, a 2.6% increase year-on-year. The average price per ton increased by 4.3% to 3,828 CNY [8]. - High-end product sales grew by 16% year-on-year, driven by the increasing market share of the pure draft series [8]. - **Cost and Margin Analysis**: - The gross margin for 2024 was 46.3%, an increase of 3.5 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin improved by 2.5 percentage points to 14.5% [8]. - The cost per ton decreased by 2.4% to 2,103 CNY, contributing to the overall margin improvement [8]. Future Outlook - The company has a clear "3+N" brand strategy aimed at enhancing the high-end product mix, which is expected to drive further revenue growth [9]. - Forecasts for 2025-2027 predict EPS of 0.43 CNY, 0.48 CNY, and 0.54 CNY, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 23, 21, and 19 [3][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China CRRC (601766) with a target price of 8.46 CNY over the next six months, compared to the current price of 7.06 CNY [1][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 246.46 billion CNY for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 12.39 billion CNY, up 5.8% year-on-year. The significant growth in the high-speed train business, with a revenue increase of 49.3%, was a key driver of this performance [7][12]. - The railway equipment segment led the growth, achieving a revenue of 110.46 billion CNY, a 12.5% increase year-on-year, with an improved gross margin of 24.7% [7][12]. - The company is expected to benefit from the replacement policy for equipment and the increased volume of high-speed train maintenance, which is projected to drive stable growth in performance [7][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2464.57 billion CNY, with a net profit of 123.88 billion CNY. The fourth quarter saw a revenue of 938.7 billion CNY, a 2.9% increase year-on-year, but a net profit decline of 7.5% [2][7]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 21.4%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 6.4%, up 0.1 percentage points [7][12]. Revenue Projections - Revenue is projected to grow to 2668.35 billion CNY in 2025, 2845.91 billion CNY in 2026, and 2976.35 billion CNY in 2027, with respective growth rates of 8.27%, 6.65%, and 4.58% [2][8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 136.04 billion CNY in 2025, 146.20 billion CNY in 2026, and 156.60 billion CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 8% [2][12]. Business Segments - The railway equipment segment is expected to see a revenue increase of 15%, 10%, and 5% from 2025 to 2027, driven by stable bidding for vehicles and maintenance services [8][12]. - The urban rail segment is projected to experience a slight decline in revenue growth, while the new industries segment is expected to grow at a rate of 5% annually [8][12]. Valuation - The report suggests a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 18 for 2025, indicating a target price of 8.46 CNY, reflecting the company's leading position in the rail transportation sector [12][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a current price of 27.16 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth throughout the year, driven by ongoing digital transformation efforts that enhance efficiency [1]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 285.98 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.3% [7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 18.74 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.9% [7]. - The company is focusing on domestic demand through initiatives like the "old-for-new" appliance exchange program, which has positively impacted revenue growth [7]. - The global strategy continues to deepen, with significant growth in emerging markets, particularly in Southeast Asia and South Asia [7]. - Digital transformation is driving cost optimization and improving profitability, with a gross margin of 27.8% in 2024, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2027 are as follows: - 2024: 285.98 billion CNY - 2025: 302.73 billion CNY - 2026: 320.57 billion CNY - 2027: 339.56 billion CNY - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 18.74 billion CNY in 2024 to 28.01 billion CNY in 2027 [2][8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 2.00 CNY in 2024 to 2.99 CNY in 2027 [2][8]. - The company maintains a return on equity (ROE) of approximately 16% over the forecast period [2][8]. Business Performance - Domestic revenue reached 1416.8 billion CNY in 2024, a 13.7% increase year-on-year, driven by the "old-for-new" program [7]. - Overseas revenue was 142.9 billion CNY, marking a 5.3% increase, with notable performance in emerging markets [7]. - The company has implemented a share buyback plan and increased its dividend payout ratio to 48.01% of the net profit for 2024 [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a current price of 27.16 CNY [1]. Core Insights - The company has shown steady revenue growth throughout the year, driven by digital transformation initiatives that enhance efficiency [1]. - The company achieved a revenue of 285.98 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 18.74 billion CNY, up 12.9% year-on-year [7]. - The domestic revenue reached 141.68 billion CNY, growing by 13.7% year-on-year, benefiting from the implementation of a home appliance replacement program [7]. - The global strategy continues to deepen, with overseas revenue of 142.9 billion CNY, a 5.3% increase, particularly strong performance in emerging markets [7]. - The company is focusing on digital transformation to optimize costs and improve profitability, with a gross margin of 27.8% in 2024, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2027 are as follows: - 2024: 285.98 billion CNY - 2025: 302.73 billion CNY (growth rate: 5.86%) - 2026: 320.57 billion CNY (growth rate: 5.89%) - 2027: 339.56 billion CNY (growth rate: 5.93%) [2]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to grow from 18.74 billion CNY in 2024 to 28.01 billion CNY in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 12.92%, 14.08%, 14.81%, and 14.13% [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 2.00 CNY in 2024 to 2.99 CNY in 2027 [2]. - The company maintains a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio that decreases from 14 in 2024 to 9 in 2027, indicating improving valuation [2]. Business Performance - The company has successfully implemented a brand matrix strategy, with the Casarte brand experiencing over 30% growth in Q4, and the Leader brand achieving a 26% increase in retail sales [7]. - The digital transformation has led to a reduction in sales expense ratio to 11.7% and management expense ratio to 4.2% [7]. - The company plans to return 48.01% of its net profit to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, with a cash dividend of 8.997 billion CNY planned [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China CNR Corporation (601766) with a target price of 8.46 CNY over the next six months, compared to the current price of 7.06 CNY [1][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 246.46 billion CNY for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 12.39 billion CNY, up 5.8% year-on-year. The significant growth in the high-speed train business, with a revenue increase of 49.3%, was a key driver of this performance [7][12]. - The railway equipment segment led the growth, achieving a revenue of 110.46 billion CNY, a 12.5% increase year-on-year, with an improved gross margin of 24.7% [7][12]. - The company is expected to benefit from the replacement policy for equipment and the increased volume of high-speed train maintenance, which is projected to drive stable growth in performance [7][12]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company anticipates revenues of 266.83 billion CNY in 2025, 284.59 billion CNY in 2026, and 297.63 billion CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 8.27%, 6.65%, and 4.58% respectively [2][8]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: Expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 13.60 billion CNY, 14.62 billion CNY, and 15.66 billion CNY, with compound annual growth of 8% [2][12]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Projected EPS for the next three years is 0.47 CNY in 2025, 0.51 CNY in 2026, and 0.55 CNY in 2027 [2][12]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decrease from 15 in 2025 to 13 in 2027, indicating a favorable valuation trend [2][12]. Business Segment Analysis - **Railway Equipment**: This segment is projected to grow at rates of 15%, 10%, and 5% from 2025 to 2027, with a gross margin improvement expected due to the higher proportion of high-speed train maintenance [8][12]. - **Urban Rail and Infrastructure**: Expected to see slight declines in revenue growth, with projections of -1.0% in 2025, 0.3% in 2026, and 1.4% in 2027 [9][12]. - **New Industries**: This segment is anticipated to grow at a steady rate of 5% annually from 2025 to 2027, benefiting from the company's technological advantages [9][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Weichai Power with a target price of 20.86 CNY over the next six months, compared to the current price of 16.30 CNY [1][13]. Core Insights - Weichai Power has demonstrated a comprehensive improvement in the operational quality of its subsidiaries, leading to enhanced profitability. The company has managed to overcome pressures from a low-performing industry, with a slight increase in revenue and a significant rise in net profit [8][9]. - The heavy truck industry faced a slight decline in sales, but Weichai Power's diversified business strategy has allowed it to maintain stable growth across various segments, including engine sales and exports [8][9]. - The company is expected to benefit from the growing market for natural gas heavy trucks, which have shown a significant increase in sales due to favorable policies and cost advantages [8][9]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, Weichai Power reported a revenue of 2156.91 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 0.81%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 114.03 billion CNY, up 26.51% year-on-year [3][8]. - The company forecasts revenue growth to 2716.13 billion CNY in 2025, with a projected net profit of 129.98 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 13.98% [3][10]. - The gross margin for 2024 was reported at 22.4%, with a net margin of 6.6%, indicating a continuous improvement in profitability [8][10]. Business Segments Performance - The revenue from complete vehicles and key components is expected to grow significantly, with a forecasted increase of 52.8% in 2025 [10]. - The intelligent logistics segment is projected to maintain steady growth at 5% annually, while agricultural equipment is expected to see a moderate increase in revenue [10]. - The company’s subsidiaries, including Shaanxi Heavy Truck, have shown impressive performance, with net profits increasing significantly [8][9]. Market Position and Future Outlook - Weichai Power is positioned to capitalize on the increasing demand for natural gas engines and the expansion of data center operations, which are expected to drive future growth [8][9]. - The company is anticipated to achieve a net profit of 150.21 billion CNY by 2026, with a corresponding PE ratio of 10 [3][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Weichai Power with a target price of 20.86 CNY over the next six months, compared to the current price of 16.30 CNY [1][13]. Core Insights - Weichai Power has demonstrated a comprehensive improvement in the operational quality of its subsidiaries, leading to enhanced profitability. The company has managed to navigate industry pressures effectively, with a slight increase in revenue and a significant rise in net profit [8][10]. - The heavy truck industry faced a slight decline in sales, yet Weichai Power's various business segments are showing stable upward trends. The company is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for natural gas heavy trucks due to recent policy changes [8][9]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, Weichai Power reported a revenue of 2156.91 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.81%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 114.03 billion CNY, marking a 26.51% increase [3][8]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 22.4%, up by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin reached 6.6%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points [8][10]. - The forecast for the next three years indicates a steady growth in revenue and net profit, with expected net profits of 129.98 billion CNY, 150.21 billion CNY, and 169.97 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][15]. Business Segment Performance - The revenue from complete vehicles and key components is projected to grow significantly, with an estimated increase of 52.8% in 2025. The intelligent logistics segment is expected to maintain a steady growth rate of 5% annually [10][15]. - The natural gas heavy truck segment is anticipated to see increased sales due to favorable policies, with a projected sales volume of 17.8 million units in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.3% [8][9]. Valuation Metrics - The report suggests a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 14 for 2025, which is lower than the average PE of 17 for comparable companies, indicating potential undervaluation [13][14]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the next three years are projected to be 1.49 CNY, 1.72 CNY, and 1.95 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the low-altitude economy industry [1] Core Insights - The low-altitude economy sector is expected to accelerate as policies continue to be implemented at both national and local levels, transitioning from concept incubation to large-scale application [6][22] - The low-altitude economy index has underperformed the market, with a decline of 4.80% during the reporting period, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.81 percentage points [14] - Significant investments and strategic partnerships are being formed, such as a 20 billion RMB credit agreement between EHang and Guangzhou Bank to enhance the competitive edge in the low-altitude economy [27] Summary by Sections Market Review - The low-altitude economy index decreased by 4.80%, underperforming major indices [14] - The national and local policies are increasingly supportive, with initiatives to develop low-altitude logistics and tourism [6][19][21] Policy Dynamics - The Chongqing Development and Reform Commission is soliciting applications for low-altitude economic scenarios, focusing on infrastructure and operational capabilities [19] - Guangdong Province aims to establish a modern comprehensive transportation network by 2027, including low-altitude transportation [20] - The State Council supports the development of international consumption centers, including low-altitude logistics routes [21] Industry Dynamics - Shandong Province issued 11.539 billion RMB in special bonds to support low-altitude economic projects, including a 50 billion RMB investment in the Weihai High-tech Zone [22][24] - Wuhan has launched 24 low-altitude trial routes, enhancing short-distance transport and tourism [22] - The establishment of the Inner Mongolia Low-altitude Economy Innovation Center aims to drive technological innovation in the sector [33] Important Company Announcements - EHang signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Guangzhou Bank to promote the high-quality development of the low-altitude economy [27] - The TD550D unmanned helicopter received the first type certificate in China, showcasing advancements in the industry [29] - The launch of the AI drone CW-20E by Zongheng Technology highlights innovation in low-altitude applications [39]

[Table_IndustryInfo] 2025 年 03 月 30 日 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•机械设备 机器人行业周报（0324-0330） 华辰装备签约 100 台磨床订单，丝杠设备逐步放量 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 投资要点 西南证券研究院 [Table_Author] 分析师：邰桂龙 执业证号：S1250521050002 电话：021-58351893 邮箱：tgl@swsc.com.cn 分析师：周鑫雨 执业证号：S1250523070008 电话：021-58351893 邮箱：zxyu@swsc.com.cn 联系人：杨云杰 电话：021-58351893 邮箱：yyjie@swsc.com.cn [Table_QuotePic] 行业相对指数表现 -18% -8% 2% 12% 22% 32% 24/3 24/5 24/7 24/9 24/11 25/1 25/3 机械设备 沪深300 数据来源：聚源数据 | 基础数据 | | | --- | --- | | [股票家数 Table_BaseData] | 441 | | 行业总市值（亿元） | 37,949.60 ...