2024年血制品行业跟踪报告（附批签发） 全年人白批次增长14%，价格开始调整 西南证券研究发展中心 2025年2月 分析师：杜向阳 执业证号：S1250520030002 电话：021-68416017 邮箱：duxy@swsc.com.cn 分析师：王彦迪 执业证号：S1250524040001 电话：021-68416017 邮箱：wydi@swsc.com.cn 2024年血制品行业跟踪报告 1 分品种来看批签发数据，人血白蛋白：2024年，人血白蛋白批签发5423批(+14%)，其中国产人白获批1708批(+9%) ，占比为31%，进口人白获批3715批(+17%)，占比为69%。2024Q4人血白蛋白批签发批次为1281批（+11%）。免 疫球蛋白：2024年静丙批签发批次为1308批（+3%）；其他品种如狂免148批(+24%)、破免145批(+12%)。2024Q4 静丙批签发批次为329批，同比增长39%。凝血因子类：2024年凝血因子Ⅷ获批568批(+33%)、PCC获批249批(-18%) 、纤原获批263批(-3%)。2024Q4凝血因子Ⅷ获批154批（+48%）、凝血酶原复合物获批5 ...

[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 02 月 03 日 证券研究报告•宏观定期报告 宏观周报（1.28-2.3） 中国 AI 新势力崛起，特朗普关税大棒挥舞 [Table_Summary] 假日大事记 国内：出行和观影数据稳中向好，Deepseek 崭露头角。1 月 27 日，国家统 计局发布数据显示 2024 年全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额比上年下降 3.3%，主要是制造业利润同比下降，随着政策进一步落实，内需进一步扩大， 工业企业效益有望回升向好；31日，英伟达表示 DeepSeek-R1模型现已作为 英伟达 NIM 微服务预览版在 build.nvidia.com 上发布，DeepSeek 的成功不仅 推动了中国 AI企业国际化进程，也为全球 AI产业发展提供了新思路，加之支 持性政策不断助力，中国 AI行业有望在全球竞争中实现从"跟跑"到"领跑" 的转变；2月 1日，中国证监会主席吴清在《求是》杂志发表署名文章《奋力 开创资本市场高质量发展新局面》，明确了当前需重点把握的五方面关系，并 提出丰富稳市政策工具，做好增量政策储备，未来在政策红利持续释放、稳市 政策工具不断丰富下，资本市 ...

公用事业行业2025年投资策略 成长性，高股息，多元化投资机会 西南证券研究发展中心 公用事业&环保研究团队 2025年1月 核 心 观 点 回顾2024年，伴随秦皇岛煤价同比下降115元/吨，火电企业成本持续改善；下半年，在大盘及市场对电价担忧 双重因素影响下，火电板块回撤约20%，12月高股息风格带动水核板块走强。展望2025年，火电在电量、电价、成本 三个核心要素上都有望出现积极因素，显现成长属性；水核板块经营稳健，现金流充裕，高股息价值仍在；结合国 内电改进一步深化，板块有望出现多元投资机会。 风险提示：产业建设不及预期、煤价上升风险、组件价格不及预期、风光等绿电新增装机不及预期、来水不及预期、 政策推进不及预期风险等。 1 火电：2025年展望火电综合电价相对平稳，动力煤煤价中枢同比向下，行业单位盈利进一步修复，火电发电量 同比持平向上，行业利润进一步提升。预计2025年煤价中枢延续2024年趋势向下，短期或有波动，火电成本改 善延续；考虑容量电价及辅助服务需求的提升，长期看火电综合电价水平大概率向上；考虑火电在系统中的需 求刚性及水电发电因素，2025年，预计火电利用小时数稳定向上。 水电：低利率 ...

[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 02 月 05 日 证券研究报告•金融工程动态报告 行业配置报告（2025 年 2 月） 最新配置观点：银行 农林牧渔 基础化工 家电 轻工制造 建材 上月组合收益率表现：2025年 1月，组合月度收益率-2.58%，相较于行业等 权指数超额收益率 0.40%。1月行业配置为：煤炭、银行、电力及公用事业、 汽车、纺织服装、交通运输。其中银行、汽车、纺织服装取得超额收益。 分析师预期边际变化行业轮动模型 最新配置观点：非银行金融 银行 汽车 消费者服务 家电 有色金属 上月组合收益率表现：2025年 1月，组合月度收益率-0.41%，相较于行业等 权指数超额收益率 2.57%。1月行业配置为：非银行金融、银行、汽车、家电、 农林牧渔、有色金属。其中银行、汽车、家电、农林牧渔、有色金属取得超额 收益。 ETF 组合构建 最新 ETF 行业组合配置：银行 家电 汽车 农林牧渔 有色金属 行业配置策略与 ETF 组合构建 摘要 [Table_Summary] 相似预期差行业轮动模型 风险提示 本报告结论完全基于公开的历史数据，若未来市场环境发生变化，因子的实际 表现 ...

[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 02 月 04 日 证券研究报告•市场投资策略 假期重要动态信息回顾点评 西南观点 [Table_Summary] 1. 宏观：假期全球重大事件与国内数据解析 叶凡 S1250520060001 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 1 国内假日数据：春运前 20 日出行保持稳健增长，观影热度超市场预期。春运前 20 日人员流动 量同比增长 7.2%，相较 2024 年同期（同口径增长 14%）增速有所下滑，但仍保持了稳健增长 态势。从出行方式来看，水路客运量较去年同期增长最快，其次是公路和民航，大部分居民选择 自驾返乡或出游。出游方面，国内长线游是 2025年春节旅游消费的热门选择，出游人次占比接 近 40％，出境短线游同样保持了较高的热度，出游人次占比接近 30％。80后仍是春节旅游消费 的"主心骨"，出游人次占比达 48％，展现了中青年用户更为强劲的文旅消费需求。观影方面， 据灯塔专业版，截至 2月 2日 22 时 48分，2025 年春节档（1月 28日-2月 4日）总票房（含 预售）突破 74亿元，2024年春节档则带来了超过 80亿元的票房，今年春节档 ...

医疗器械-生命信息与支持设备专题 论高国产化率赛道增长点在何方？ 西南证券研究发展中心 2025年2月 首席分析师：杜向阳 执业证号：S1250520030002 电话：021-68416017 邮箱：duxy@swsc.com.cn 分析师：陈辰 执业证号：S1250524120002 电话：021-68416017 邮箱：chch@swsc.com.cn 核心观点 1 前言：在中国人口老龄化日益加深的背景下，与急重症患者救治相关的生命支持医疗设备的需求日益增长。亦得益于生物医学工程和 信息技术的突破，生命监测与支持技术正逐步实现集成化、精准化、和智能化。从简单的心电监护到较为复杂的体外生命支持系统， 这些医疗设备在临床应用中扮演着越来越重要的角色，成为现代医学不可或缺的一部分。随着术式的不断革新和产品线的扩围发展， 我们不禁要问"高国产化率的生命支持设备未来增长点在何方？"本篇报告将重点围绕生命支持医疗设备行业三大核心问题来做解读 ： 1）市场需求层面，各子行业的市场规模及年复合增长几何？2）格局层面，各子行业目前的竞争格局以及行业核心技术发展趋势 ？3）潜在增长层面，论高国产化率赛道增长点在何方？ 需求 ...

[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 01 月 27 日 证券研究报告•宏观简评报告 数据点评 季节性叠加需求前置，景气度表现偏弱 ——2025 年 1 月 PMI 数据点评 点评 西南证券研究发展中心 [Table_Author] 分析师：叶凡 执业证号：S1250520060001 电话：010-57631106 邮箱：yefan@swsc.com.cn 分析师：刘彦宏 执业证号：S1250523030002 电话：010-57631106 邮箱：liuyanhong@swsc.com.cn 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 1 50468 [Table_Summary] 制造业 PMI：景气度季节性走低，但企业预期较为乐观。由于春节假期临近， 企业开工季节性放缓，加之部分消费品备货需求提前释放，2025 年 1 月制造 业 PMI 较 2024年 12月回落 1个百分点至 49.1%，低于市场预期。从季节性 表现来看，2015-2024年 1月制造业 PMI 平均约为 50.2%，2025年 1月制造 业 PMI较历史同期均值偏低。从需求端看，内外需均边际走低，新订单指数下 滑 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the computer industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector over the next six months [210]. Core Insights - The report highlights three major trends in the AI sector: domestic companies focusing on AI computing power and ecosystem competition, overseas companies shifting towards model optimization on the inference side, and the increasing release of AI Agents driving application deployment [30][44][63]. - The report emphasizes the positive impact of government policies and macroeconomic conditions on the recovery of related sectors, particularly in the context of the "信创" (Xinchuang) initiative, which aims to enhance domestic technology capabilities [79][126]. Summary by Sections 1. 2024 Market Review - The computer industry index increased by 4.4% in 2024, underperforming the broader market index by approximately 10.3% [14]. - The top three gainers in the sector were 汇金科技 (+367.5%), 赢时胜 (+258.0%), and 荣科科技 (+234.2%) [14]. 2. Domestic and International Competition - Domestic major players like 字节, 阿里, and 腾讯 are significantly investing in AI computing power, while overseas firms are optimizing models for inference tasks [30][31]. - The report notes that the demand for ASIC chips is expected to rise due to their cost-effectiveness in inference tasks compared to traditional GPUs [58]. 3. Continuous Catalysts in the Sector - The report indicates that the Xinchuang initiative is gaining momentum, with increased efficiency in bidding processes and a clearer direction for technology adoption [79]. - The financial recovery of local governments, aided by a 10 trillion yuan debt relief plan, is expected to benefit companies in the Xinchuang sector [80]. 4. Policy and Industry Trends - The report discusses the issuance of long-term special bonds to support key strategic projects, including AI and low-altitude economy initiatives [126]. - It highlights the expected growth in the AI Agent market, projected to reach 852 billion yuan by 2028, driven by advancements in LLM algorithms [63]. 5. Key Companies - 海光信息 is noted for its strong performance in AI computing power, with significant product launches expected to enhance its market position [175]. - 神州数码 is recognized for its expanding AI server offerings and robust growth in its core business [180]. - 金山办公's WPS AI 2.0 is anticipated to drive revenue growth through enhanced user engagement and product offerings [186]. - 金蝶国际 is positioned to benefit from the accelerating digital transformation of enterprises, particularly in the ERP market [192]. - 同花顺 is expected to maintain stable growth due to its strong correlation with market activity and investor participation [198].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of —— yuan over the next six months [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant profit growth in 2024, with net profit forecasted to be between 2.1 billion to 2.36 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 53.45% to 72.45% [7]. - The Moroccan factory is anticipated to ramp up production significantly in 2025, with an expected output of 6 to 8 million tires, contributing positively to the company's performance [7]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023A: 7.842 billion yuan - 2024E: 8.964 billion yuan (growth rate: 14.31%) - 2025E: 11.543 billion yuan (growth rate: 28.77%) - 2026E: 13.209 billion yuan (growth rate: 14.43%) [2][8] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023A: 1.369 billion yuan - 2024E: 2.281 billion yuan (growth rate: 66.65%) - 2025E: 2.575 billion yuan (growth rate: 12.88%) - 2026E: 2.910 billion yuan (growth rate: 13.03%) [2][8] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: 1.33 yuan - 2024E: 2.22 yuan - 2025E: 2.50 yuan - 2026E: 2.83 yuan [2][8] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2023A: 11.61% - 2024E: 17.09% - 2025E: 16.17% - 2026E: 15.45% [2][8] - **Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio**: - 2023A: 18.79 - 2024E: 11.27 - 2025E: 9.99 - 2026E: 8.83 [2][8] Market Dynamics - The tire market is experiencing growth, with China's tire export volume expected to reach 7.95 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5% [7]. - The company is focusing on high-end automotive manufacturers and has received certifications from major global automakers, enhancing its brand influence [7]. Production Capacity Expansion - The Moroccan factory is set to begin large-scale production in 2025, with customer orders exceeding planned capacity, which is expected to significantly boost the company's performance in the coming years [7].

Core Insights - The overall performance of the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) was strong during the reporting period, with a closing market value of 560.94 billion yuan on January 24, 2025, representing a 5.4% increase from the opening market value on January 13, 2025 [5][14]. - Among the 263 stocks listed on the BSE, 187 stocks increased in value, 1 remained unchanged, and 75 declined. Notably, Vision Intelligence saw a significant increase of 34.6%, while Tiangang Co. experienced a decline of 25.0% [5][17]. - The BSE's trading volume for the period was 153.92 billion yuan, with an average weekly trading amount of 5.85 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 53.9%, indicating improved liquidity compared to the previous period [9][10]. Market Review - The BSE's performance lagged behind the ChiNext by approximately 2.1 percentage points, as the ChiNext index rose by about 7.4% during the same period [14]. - The average market capitalization of BSE companies was 2.13 billion yuan, significantly lower than the average market capitalization of 9.23 billion yuan for ChiNext stocks and 11.75 billion yuan for Sci-Tech Innovation Board stocks [9][10]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio (TTM, median) for the BSE was 34.4 times, which is an increase of 1.5 times compared to the previous period [9][10]. Industry Performance - The computer sector performed relatively well, with a median increase of 0.3% in the industry, a significant improvement from a decline of 3.6% in the previous period [22]. - The environmental protection sector showed weaker performance, with a median decrease of 7.3%, down 6.0 percentage points from the previous period [22]. - The media industry had an exceptionally high P/E ratio (TTM, median) of 1474.6 times, reflecting a substantial increase of 114.8 times from the previous period [22]. Fund Performance - The overall performance of BSE-related theme funds was weak, with the Invesco Great Wall BSE Selected Mixed Fund A showing a slight decline of approximately 1.1%, underperforming the overall fund performance [25][26]. - The BSE index funds also exhibited weak performance, with the Chuangjin North BSE 50 Index Enhanced A declining by about 3.3% [25][26]. Company Announcements - A total of 40 companies updated their listing project review dynamics during the reporting period, with 32 companies inquired, 1 company approved by the listing committee, 6 terminated, and 1 accepted [54]. - Notable announcements included the release of the "Sustainable Development Report Preparation Guidelines" by the BSE, aimed at promoting high-quality development among listed companies [56].