Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the beer industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [1]. Core Insights - The beer industry experienced a recovery in Q1 2025 after a challenging 2024, with revenue and profit showing signs of growth. Specifically, the beer sector's revenue for 2024 was CNY 68.038 billion, down 1.67% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 6.05% to CNY 7.290 billion. In Q1 2025, revenue reached CNY 20.043 billion, up 3.68% year-on-year, and net profit rose by 10.62% to CNY 2.519 billion [11][22][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Q1 Performance and Cost Elasticity - The beer sector faced pressure in 2024, but Q1 2025 showed recovery with revenue and profit growth. The revenue for 2024 was CNY 68.038 billion, with a net profit of CNY 7.290 billion. In Q1 2025, revenue was CNY 20.043 billion, and net profit was CNY 2.519 billion, indicating a recovery trend [11][22]. - Cost elasticity has been a key factor in maintaining profit margins, with a steady increase in gross profit margins throughout 2024 and into Q1 2025 [19][20][55]. 2. Future Growth Potential - The report anticipates a positive trend in volume and price in the upcoming quarters, particularly as the industry enters a low base period in Q2 and Q3 2025. The recovery in the restaurant sector is expected to support beer sales [48][50]. - The focus on mid-to-high-end beer products continues to drive growth, with brands like Qingdao Beer and Yanjing Beer expected to perform well due to their strong market positions and product upgrades [53][54]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests increasing exposure to quality leaders such as Qingdao Beer and Yanjing Beer, which are positioned well for growth in the upcoming consumption peak season. The recommendation is based on their strong cash flow and dividend yield potential [6][24]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the recovery of the restaurant sector and the impact of consumption stimulus policies on beer sales [50][52].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the liquor industry, indicating a positive outlook for the mid-term [1]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing continued pressure, with a focus on quality over speed in growth. The recovery in demand is showing signs of being uneven, leading companies to prioritize prudent growth strategies [12][18]. - The high-end liquor segment is seeing stable pricing control, while the mid-range segment is under pressure, indicating a divergence in performance across different price tiers [1][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Demand Recovery and Quality Focus - The liquor sector's revenue for FY 2024 grew by 8.2% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 7.2%. For Q1 2025, revenue growth slowed to 2.3% and net profit to 2.6% [12][18]. - Consumer confidence remains weak, particularly in the mid to low-end segments, while high-end banquet consumption is showing signs of recovery from a low base [12][18]. 2. Revenue Trends - Revenue growth is gradually bottoming out, with increasing differentiation among companies. The high-end segment remains relatively stable, while the mid-range segment faces significant challenges [18][27]. - The report highlights that many liquor companies are tightening control over distributors and focusing on core products to drive sales [18][27]. 3. Profitability Analysis - The gross profit margin for the liquor sector in FY 2024 was 82.93%, a slight increase from the previous year. However, many companies are facing pressure on their gross margins due to pricing and product mix challenges [2][3]. - Sales and management expense ratios have seen slight increases, indicating a cautious approach to spending amid a challenging market environment [2][3]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that leading liquor companies are expected to show resilient growth, supported by effective channel management and digital tracking strategies. Companies like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu are recommended for their solid performance and valuation safety margins [3][12].

Quantitative Factors and Construction Factor Name: UTR2.0 (Upgraded Turnover Rate 2.0) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The UTR2.0 factor is an upgraded version of the original UTR factor. It combines the "Turn20" (small turnover factor) and "STR" (stable turnover factor) using a refined methodology. The key improvement involves transitioning from ordinal scale to ratio scale for factor values, and introducing a coefficient for the small turnover factor based on the stable turnover factor. This adjustment accounts for the varying impact of the small turnover factor across different subgroups [6][7] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the "Turn20" (small turnover factor) and "STR" (stable turnover factor) for all stocks at the end of each month [6] 2. Combine the two factors using the following formula: $$ \mathrm{UTR2.0} = \mathrm{STR} + \text{softsign}(\mathrm{STR}) \cdot \mathrm{Turn20} $$ where: $$ \text{softsign}(x) = \frac{x}{1 + |x|} $$ - `STR` represents the stable turnover factor - `Turn20` represents the small turnover factor - `softsign` is a mathematical function that adjusts the impact of `Turn20` based on the stability of `STR` [7] - **Factor Evaluation**: The UTR2.0 factor demonstrates improved performance metrics compared to the original UTR factor. While the absolute returns are slightly lower, the volatility, information ratio (IR), and monthly win rate are significantly better, making it a more robust factor for stock selection [6][7] --- Factor Backtesting Results UTR2.0 Factor - **Annualized Return**: 40.30% [8][12] - **Annualized Volatility**: 15.04% [8][12] - **Information Ratio (IR)**: 2.68 [8][12] - **Monthly Win Rate**: 75.32% [8][12] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 11.03% [8][12] April 2025 Performance - **Long Portfolio Return**: 1.20% [10] - **Short Portfolio Return**: -4.90% [10] - **Long-Short Portfolio Return**: 6.10% [10]

证券研究报告·金融工程·金工定期报告 金工定期报告 20250507 信息分布均匀度 UID 选股因子绩效月报 20250430 东吴证券研究所 1 / 7 2025 年 05 月 07 日 证券分析师 高子剑 执业证书：S0600518010001 021-60199793 gaozj@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 凌志杰 执业证书：S0600525040007 lingzhj@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 庞格致 执业证书：S0600524090003 panggz@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《"波动率选股因子"系列研究（二）： 换手率分布均匀度，基于高频波动率 的选股因子》 2020-09-01 《信息分布均匀度 UID 选股因子绩效 月报 20250331》 2025-04-03 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 信息分布均匀度 UID 因子多空对冲绩效（全市场）： 2014 年 1 月至 2025 年 4 月，信息分布均匀度 UID 因子在全体 A 股中，10 分组多空对 冲的年化收益率为 26.99%，年化波动为 9. ...

Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Turnover Distribution Uniformity (UTD) - **Construction Idea**: The UTD factor is constructed based on minute-level trading volume data to improve the traditional turnover factor by reducing the misjudgment rate of stock samples and enhancing stock selection performance[1][7] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the daily turnover rate for each stock over the past 20 trading days at the end of each month - Neutralize the turnover rate by market capitalization - Use minute-level trading volume data to construct the UTD factor, which measures the uniformity of turnover distribution[6][7] - **Evaluation**: The UTD factor significantly reduces the misjudgment rate of stock samples and performs better in stock selection compared to traditional factors[1][7] Factor Backtesting Results - **Turnover Distribution Uniformity (UTD) Factor**: - Annualized Return: 19.94%[1][7][12] - Annualized Volatility: 7.40%[1][7][12] - Information Ratio (IR): 2.69[1][7][12] - Monthly Win Rate: 77.04%[1][7][12] - Maximum Drawdown: 5.51%[1][7][12] Monthly Performance of UTD Factor (April 2025) - **Long Portfolio Return**: -0.72%[1][11] - **Short Portfolio Return**: -3.36%[1][11] - **Long-Short Portfolio Return**: 2.64%[1][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the non-bank financial industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the next six months [1]. Core Insights - In April 2025, the average daily trading volume of funds increased by 90 billion yuan, reaching 2,626 billion yuan, which is a 115.4% year-on-year increase and a 3.6% month-on-month increase [19][22]. - The net inflow of stock ETFs in April 2025 was 197.6 billion yuan, with a total existing scale of 2,341.6 billion yuan [13][19]. - The issuance of new public funds significantly decreased in April 2025, with a total of 58.1 billion shares issued, a 38.7% month-on-month decline and a 54.1% year-on-year decline [25][22]. - The overall ETF market size reached 40,565 billion yuan in April 2025, reflecting a 63.5% year-on-year increase and a 6.8% month-on-month increase [44][43]. - The average turnover rate of funds in April 2025 was 10.7%, which is a 4.8 percentage point increase year-on-year and a 3.0 percentage point increase month-on-month [20][19]. Summary by Sections Fund Market Review - The overall fund index value fluctuated upward in April 2025, with bond fund indices showing slight increases compared to stock indices [10][11]. - The average daily turnover rate of funds increased, indicating heightened trading activity [20][19]. Fund Market Trading Situation - The average daily trading volume of funds rose significantly, with ETFs also showing strong trading activity [19][22]. - Stock ETFs experienced a net inflow, particularly in broad-based ETFs, while financial sector ETFs saw outflows [17][13]. Fund Market Scale Situation - The issuance of new public funds saw a notable decline, while the overall scale and holdings of ETFs increased [22][43]. - The total public fund holdings slightly decreased, with open-end funds experiencing a more significant decline compared to closed-end funds [28][31]. Private Fund Situation - The number of newly registered private funds increased significantly in March 2025, indicating a growing interest in private investment vehicles [57][59]. - The total scale of existing private funds showed a slight increase, with a notable rise in the number of new registrations [59][57].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electric equipment industry [1]. Core Views - The report highlights the resonance of humanoid robots domestically and internationally, indicating a significant growth potential in this sector. It also notes that leading companies in lithium battery storage are currently undervalued [1][6]. - The investment strategy emphasizes the strong growth prospects in humanoid robotics, energy storage, and electric vehicles, with specific recommendations for key companies in these sectors [6][10]. Industry Trends - The humanoid robot sector is expected to see substantial growth, with projections of over 100 million units in the long term, corresponding to a market space exceeding 15 trillion yuan. The year 2025 is identified as a pivotal year for mass production [10]. - In the energy storage sector, the report notes a significant increase in demand, particularly in the U.S. market, with expectations of a doubling in installed capacity in 2025 compared to previous years [9][10]. - The electric vehicle market is also highlighted, with a projected 25% growth in sales for 2025, driven by competitive pricing and new model releases [6][10]. Company Summaries - **CATL (宁德时代)**: Expected to maintain strong performance with a projected EPS growth from 10.02 yuan in 2023 to 14.02 yuan in 2025, with a "Buy" rating [8]. - **BYD (比亚迪)**: Anticipated to see continued sales growth and structural upgrades, with an EPS forecast of 9.89 yuan in 2023 rising to 15.84 yuan in 2025, also rated as "Buy" [8]. - **LONGi Green Energy (隆基绿能)**: Despite a projected decline in revenue, it remains a key player with a "Buy" rating [8]. - **Sungrow Power Supply (阳光电源)**: Expected to benefit from global inverter demand, with a strong growth outlook and a "Buy" rating [8]. - **GCL-Poly Energy (通威股份)**: Positioned to benefit from supply-side reforms, with a projected EPS growth from 3.02 yuan in 2023 to 0.85 yuan in 2025, rated as "Buy" [8]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends a focus on leading companies in the humanoid robotics, energy storage, and electric vehicle sectors, highlighting specific firms such as CATL, BYD, and others as strong investment opportunities [6][10]. - It emphasizes the importance of technological advancements and market dynamics in shaping the future of these industries, particularly in the context of rising demand and competitive pressures [6][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from industry recovery and is seizing market opportunities, leading to an upward adjustment in revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 from 799 million to 801 million and from 959 million to 970 million respectively. However, net profit forecasts for the same period have been slightly lowered due to ongoing R&D and sales investments [3] - The company achieved a revenue of 645 million in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.65%, while the net profit was 124 million, down 19.38%. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a significant revenue increase of 38.50% and a net profit increase of 58.63% [8][3] - The company is focusing on enhancing its product offerings and global presence, with over 5000 products available and a significant portion of revenue coming from overseas markets, which accounted for 66% of total revenue in 2024 [8][3] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 645 million in 2024 to 800.72 million in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.14% [3] - The net profit is expected to recover from 123.83 million in 2024 to 161.18 million in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 30.16% [3] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 1.03 in 2024 to 1.34 in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 35.65 at the current price [3]

TPS 与 SPS 选股因子绩效月报 20250430 2025 年 05 月 07 日 证券研究报告·金融工程·金工定期报告 金工定期报告 20250507 证券分析师 凌志杰 执业证书：S0600525040007 lingzhj@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《成交价改进换手率因子》 2022-08-16 《 TPS 与 SPS 选股因子绩效月报 20250331》 2025-04-03 东吴证券研究所 1 / 9 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] 证券分析师 高子剑 执业证书：S0600518010001 021-60199793 gaozj@dwzq.com.cn [Table_Summary] ◼ TPS 因子多空对冲绩效（全市场）： 2006 年 1 月至 2025 年 4 月，TPS 因子在全体 A 股中，10 分组多空对冲的年化收益率为 39.50%，年化波 动为 15.79%，信息比率为 2.50，月度胜率为 77.39%，月度最大回撤为 18.19%。 ◼ SPS 因子多空对冲绩效（全市场）： 2006 年 1 月至 2025 年 4 月，SPS 因子在全体 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The report indicates that the company has passed the turning point in Q4 2024, with revenue and profit improving sequentially and year-over-year [3][8] - The company is expected to benefit from industry recovery and is seizing market opportunities, leading to an upward adjustment in revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 [3] - The company is still in a phase of R&D and sales investment, resulting in a downward adjustment of net profit forecasts for the same period [3] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to reach 645.02 million in 2024, with a year-over-year growth of 18.65%, and is expected to grow to 800.72 million in 2025, reflecting a 24.14% increase [3][9] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 123.83 million in 2024, down 19.38% year-over-year, but is expected to rebound to 161.18 million in 2025, a growth of 30.16% [3][9] - The latest diluted EPS is expected to be 1.03 in 2024 and is projected to increase to 1.34 in 2025 [3][9] Revenue and Profit Trends - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 6.45 billion, representing an 18.65% increase year-over-year, while the net profit was 1.24 billion, down 19.38% [8] - The company reported a significant increase in Q4 2024 revenue of 1.82 billion, up 38.50% year-over-year, and a net profit of 403.4 million, up 58.63% [8] - The first quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 1.86 billion, a 27.73% increase, with a net profit of 405.8 million, up 32.31% [8] Market Position and Strategy - The company is enhancing its global presence, with overseas revenue accounting for 66% of total revenue in 2024, and plans to establish more overseas subsidiaries [8] - The company has developed over 5000 products and is focusing on clinical and research needs, with nearly 50 GMP-grade products successfully developed [8] - The application of AI technology in product development is seen as a positive long-term growth factor for the company [8]