Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][2] Core Views - The company has shown strong medium to long-term growth potential, with a projected increase in copper production capacity to approximately 300,000 tons by 2030, achieving an average annual compound growth rate of about 8% [2][10] - The company is expected to benefit from rising copper prices, which will enhance profit margins due to stable production costs from its own mines [2][10] Financial Performance and Forecast - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company is estimated to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately $314 million, representing a year-on-year increase of about 23% [2][6] - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are $4.177 billion, $4.394 billion, and $4.614 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.8%, 5.2%, and 5.0% [2][10] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same years is projected to be $421 million, $487 million, and $529 million, with growth rates of 51.5%, 15.9%, and 8.5% respectively [2][10] - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be $0.11, $0.12, and $0.14 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 [2][10] Production and Operational Insights - The company produced approximately 95,900 tons of cathode copper in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of about 13%, while its own mines produced about 64,000 tons, an increase of about 3% [2][6] - The total production of sulfuric acid reached approximately 776,300 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 10% [2][6] - The company has four ongoing and planned mining projects that are expected to add an annual production capacity of 130,000 tons of copper once fully operational [2][10]

公司研究·海外公司快评 纺织服饰·服装家纺 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师： 丁诗洁 0755-81981391 dingshijie@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980520040004 证券分析师： 刘佳琪 010-88005446 liujiaqi@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980523070003 特步国际（01368.HK） 第三季度主品牌流水增长中单位数，索康尼增长超 50% 优于大市 事项： 公司公告：2024 年 10 月 23 日，公司发布 2024 年第三季度营运状况，第三季度特步主品牌线上线下全渠 道零售销售流水同比增长中单位数，零售折扣 7.5 折，渠道库销比 4 个月。索康尼品牌线上线下全渠道零 售销售流水同比增长超过 50%。 国信纺服观点： 1、第三季度特步主品牌流水增长中单位数；零售折扣 7.5 折，库销比 4 个月，折扣与库销比环比稳定、 同比改善；索康尼增长超过 50%。 2、风险提示：消费需求复苏不及预期；品牌形象受损；品牌恶性竞争加剧；市场的系统性风险； 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 证券研究报告 | 2024年10 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司深度·汽车(HS) 零跑汽车（09863.HK） 借力海外巨头，实现出海共赢 2024 年 10 月 23 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|------------|------------|------------|----------|----------| | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 12385 | 16747 | 30624 | 56791 | 79807 | | 同比 (%) | 295.41 | 35.23 | 82.86 | 85.45 | 40.53 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | (5,108.89) | (4,216.27) | (3,720.71) | (687.62) | 2,401.31 | | 同比 (%) | - | - | - | - | - | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / 股） | (3.82) ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited (03800.HK) for the first time [1][88]. Core Viewpoints - GCL-Poly is a well-established photovoltaic giant that has innovated through cycles, achieving significant market share and technological advancements in the solar industry [2][24]. - The demand for photovoltaic products continues to grow, although profitability is under pressure due to industry price declines and excess supply [2][60]. - The company is building a green technology matrix to differentiate itself in a competitive market, focusing on cost-effective and high-quality production methods [3][67]. Summary by Sections 1. Established Photovoltaic Giant, Technological Innovation Across Cycles - GCL-Poly was listed in November 2007 and quickly captured a significant market share, becoming a leader in the global photovoltaic market [2][24]. - The company has shifted its strategic focus to granular silicon technology, which has led to a substantial increase in production capacity and market share [2][24]. - R&D investment has been increasing, reaching 5.6% of total revenue in 2023, indicating a commitment to innovation [2][41]. 2. Continuous Growth in Photovoltaic Demand, Profitability Under Pressure - In 2023, the domestic installed capacity surged, with an additional 216.3 GW installed, exceeding expectations [2][60]. - The industry is entering a phase of slower growth, with projected installations of 490 GW in 2024 [2][60]. - The company’s revenue for 2023 was 34.129 billion yuan, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, while net profit fell by 84% to 2.51 billion yuan [1][33]. 3. Building a Green Hard Technology Matrix, Differentiated Competition - GCL-Poly has made significant advancements in granular silicon production, achieving lower costs and higher quality [3][67]. - The company’s granular silicon production capacity is expected to reach 480,000 tons by the end of 2024, with a production volume of nearly 300,000 tons [3][67]. - The company is also advancing in perovskite technology, with significant efficiency improvements and plans for large-scale production [3][85]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The report forecasts total revenue for 2024-2026 to be 17.99 billion, 25.01 billion, and 32.1 billion yuan respectively, driven primarily by volume growth [1][88]. - The projected net profit for 2024-2026 is -2.9 billion, 0.4 billion, and 2.5 billion yuan, reflecting a significant recovery in profitability by 2026 [1][88]. - The report highlights the potential for substantial valuation flexibility due to the company's cost advantages in granular silicon products [3][88].

中国有色矿业（1258.HK）2024 年三季度生产经营报告点评 业绩稳健增长，产量有所下滑 2024 年 10 月 23 日 ➢ 公司发布前三季度生产经营报告。2024 前三季度，公司实现归母净利润 3.14 亿美元，同比增长约 23%，单 Q3 公司实现归母净利润 0.95 亿美元，同比增长 38%，环比下滑 30%。 ➢ 铜价的同比上涨是利润增长的主要原因，受限电紧张等因素铜产品生产受到 影响。（1）价：24Q3 铜价为 7.52 万元/吨，同比增长 9.5%，环比增长 6.1%。 铜价的同比上涨是利润增长的主要原因。（2）量：受电力紧张等，产品生产受到 影响，前三季度铜产品未完成年度产量指引 75%，Q3 自有矿山产量同比下滑。 前三季度，公司累计生产阴极铜 9.59 万吨，同比减少约 13%，年度计划完成度 约 69%；累计生产粗铜和阳极铜约 28.7 万吨，同比增长 3%，年度计划完成度 约 70%。自有矿山方面，公司前三季度生产阴极铜 6.39 万吨，同比增长 3%， 其中 Q3 生产 2.05 万吨，同比减少 5%；生产粗铜和阳极铜 5.78 万吨，同比减 少 13%，其中 Q3 生产 2.5 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the company for the first time [1] Core Views - The company is a global leader in automotive exterior parts, with a diversified product portfolio including plastic, metal, and aluminum components, as well as battery boxes [2] - The company has a strong market position in traditional businesses such as metal trim, aluminum parts, and plastic parts, ranking first domestically and globally in certain segments [2] - The battery box business has become a major growth driver, with global market share increasing from 2.1% in 2021 to 13.3% in 2023 [2] - The company is actively developing intelligent exterior products, including smart front faces, tailgates, and side doors, with significant breakthroughs in the intelligent B-pillar and electric side door systems [2] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company's revenue is expected to grow from RMB 25.115 billion in 2024 to RMB 34.032 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 13.13% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from RMB 2.342 billion in 2024 to RMB 3.143 billion in 2026 [3] - The PE ratio is expected to decline from 6.78x in 2024 to 5.05x in 2026, indicating an attractive valuation [3] Business Segments - **Metal and Trim**: Revenue is expected to grow steadily, with a CAGR of 4-6% from 2024 to 2026, driven by recovery in domestic and overseas markets [48] - **Aluminum Parts**: Revenue is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 15% from 2024 to 2026, supported by strong demand in both domestic and international markets [48] - **Plastic Parts**: Revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of 18-20% from 2024 to 2026, benefiting from the recovery in demand in China and overseas markets [48] - **Battery Box**: Revenue is expected to grow significantly, with a CAGR of 40% from 2024 to 2026, driven by the rapid expansion of the new energy vehicle market [48] Industry and Market Position - The company is a leading global supplier of automotive exterior parts, with a strong presence in the battery box market, ranking second domestically in 2020 [2] - The battery box market is expected to grow significantly, with global market size projected to reach RMB 44.4 billion by 2026, driven by the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle market [34] - The company has a competitive advantage in the battery box market due to its global production layout and "local supply" strategy, which reduces transportation costs for large components [2] Innovation and Future Growth - The company is actively developing intelligent exterior products, including smart front faces, tailgates, and side doors, with significant breakthroughs in the intelligent B-pillar and electric side door systems [2] - The company is also focusing on lightweight and integrated chassis solutions for battery boxes, which are expected to be key growth areas in the future [41] Valuation and Peer Comparison - The company's PE ratio is lower than its peers, with a 2024 PE of 6.78x compared to the median PE of 12.83x for comparable companies, indicating an attractive valuation [52] - The company's revenue growth and profitability are among the top in its peer group, with a strong focus on R&D and innovation, which supports its future growth potential [51]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 78.9, indicating a potential upside of 24.3% from the current price of HKD 63.5 [4][10]. Core Insights - The company achieved a significant revenue growth of 120%-125% year-on-year in Q3 2024, surpassing market expectations, and demonstrating strong operational capabilities in IP management and global expansion potential [2][3]. - The report highlights a robust performance in the Chinese market, with revenue growth of 55%-60% in Q3 2024, compared to 32% in the first half of the year, showcasing the company's resilience in a challenging economic environment [2][7]. - Internationally, the company reported an impressive 440%-445% revenue growth in Q3 2024, further validating its global expansion strategy and the effectiveness of its IP monetization efforts [2][7]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 have been revised upwards by 20%-31%, with net profit estimates increased by 24%-36% [2][8]. - The company is expected to generate revenues of RMB 12,395 million in 2024, RMB 17,733 million in 2025, and RMB 22,156 million in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 96.7%, 43.1%, and 24.9% respectively [3][5]. - The net profit for 2024 is projected at RMB 2,599 million, with a significant year-on-year increase of 140.1% [3][5]. Market Position and Valuation - The current valuation stands at 18.8 times the estimated P/E for 2025, with a PEG ratio of approximately 0.3, indicating that the stock remains attractive compared to other consumer stocks in China [2][3]. - The company’s strong IP incubation capabilities and optimistic outlook for international markets contribute to a strong long-term growth trajectory [2][3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Pop Mart (9992 HK) is not explicitly mentioned in the report, but the analysis suggests a positive outlook due to strong revenue growth and upward revisions in profit forecasts [1][2] Core Viewpoints - Pop Mart's Q3 2024 revenue growth exceeded expectations, with overall revenue increasing by 120%-125% YoY, driven by strong performance in both domestic and overseas markets [1] - Domestic revenue grew by 55%-60% YoY, while overseas revenue surged by 440%-445% YoY, significantly outperforming the company's initial guidance [1] - The company's IP commercialization capabilities have been validated, with overseas markets contributing 29 7% of total revenue in H1 2024, surpassing the full-year 2023 overseas revenue [1] - Pop Mart's diversified business model, including IP incubation, retail, theme parks, and digital entertainment, is expected to drive future growth [2] Revenue Breakdown - Domestic revenue growth was supported by multiple channels: retail stores (+30-35% YoY), robot stores (+20-25% YoY), Pop Mart's online box-drawing machine (+55-60% YoY), and e-commerce platforms (+135-140% YoY) [1] - Overseas revenue growth was driven by the opening of flagship stores and key locations, with notable performances in Thailand, where a Labubu-themed store achieved over RMB 10 million in sales on its opening day [1] Business Expansion - Pop Mart is actively exploring new business models, including theme parks, games, and PTS toy exhibitions, which have already shown profitability [2] - The company plans to open 30-40 new overseas stores in H2 2024, with Q4 expected to contribute over 40% of annual sales due to the holiday season [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be RMB 12 1 billion, RMB 17 1 billion, and RMB 22 2 billion, representing YoY growth of 92%, 41%, and 30%, respectively [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 2 68 billion, RMB 4 14 billion, and RMB 5 70 billion for 2024-2026, with YoY growth of 148%, 54%, and 38% [2] - EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be RMB 1 99, RMB 3 08, and RMB 4 24, with corresponding P/E ratios of 29X, 19X, and 14X as of October 22, 2024 [2] Key Financial Metrics - Gross margin is expected to improve from 61 32% in 2023 to 66 08% in 2026, driven by higher overseas revenue and economies of scale [6] - Net profit margin is projected to increase from 17 18% in 2023 to 25 65% in 2026, reflecting the company's improved profitability [6]

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Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][3] Core Insights - The company is expected to see stable monetization rates and continued investment in core businesses, with a focus on international digital commerce and cloud services [1][3] - For FY2025Q2, the overall revenue is projected to grow by 7% year-on-year to 2,396 billion RMB, with adjusted EBITA expected to decline by 7% to 398 billion RMB [2][3] - The international digital commerce group is anticipated to achieve a revenue of 313 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28% [2][3] Financial Performance Forecast - The company forecasts total revenue for FY2025E at 1,010,044 million RMB, with a growth rate of 7% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 101,934 million RMB for FY2025E, representing a growth rate of 28% [4] - The adjusted EBITA margin for the Taobao group is projected to be 44% for FY2025Q2, with revenue expected to reach 1,013 billion RMB, a 4% increase year-on-year [2][4] Segment Performance - The Taobao group's revenue is expected to grow by 4% year-on-year to 1,013 billion RMB, driven by stable consumer recovery and improved monetization tools [2][3] - The cloud intelligent group is projected to achieve a revenue of 299 billion RMB for FY2025Q2, with an 8% year-on-year growth, primarily driven by AI product revenue [3][4] Valuation Metrics - The company is expected to have a diluted EPS of 5.10 RMB for FY2025E, with a P/E ratio of 17x [4][6] - The target market capitalization for FY2025 is estimated at 20,708 billion RMB, corresponding to a target price of 108 RMB [3][4]