证 券 研 究 报 告 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 即时点评 | | 减重不减肌药研发 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform the Market" rating to the company, with a target market value range of 449-505 billion yuan, corresponding to a stock price of 35.92-40.41 HKD [2][360][369]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing rapid growth in domestic sales, with a significant increase in new model launches and an expansion of its sales channels, particularly through collaboration with Stellantis for international market entry [2][21][88]. - The company has achieved a turnaround in gross profit, with a gross margin of 8.10% in Q3 2024, indicating a positive trend in profitability as sales volumes increase [2][39][342]. - The company is set to launch new models (C10/C16) in 2024, which are expected to drive sales growth, with a cumulative sales increase of 100% year-on-year from January to November 2024 [2][53][54]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 314.13 billion, 561.00 billion, and 814.00 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to shift from losses of -37.21 billion and -5.78 billion in 2024 and 2025 to a profit of 23.72 billion in 2026 [3][342][351]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in sales volume, with domestic retail expected to reach 287,561 units in 2024 and 419,000 units in 2025 [342][345]. Market Dynamics - The global automotive market is segmented into five major regions, with the EU expected to become a significant growth area for Chinese automotive brands due to favorable tariff conditions and a growing preference for low-energy vehicles [2][100][129]. - The EU market for passenger vehicles is approximately 10 million units, with a notable shift towards small, low-energy vehicles, creating opportunities for Chinese brands to penetrate this market [2][105][129]. Competitive Advantages - The company leverages its strong product capabilities, full-stack self-research in electronic and electrical architecture, and international partnerships to enhance its competitive position [2][21][81]. - The "Four-Leaf Clover" architecture, which integrates multiple functionalities into a single system, supports the company's strategy of low-cost, high-intelligence vehicle production [2][82][86]. International Expansion - The establishment of "Leap International" in partnership with Stellantis marks a strategic move to expand into international markets, with plans to open over 500 sales points globally by the end of 2025 [2][88][330]. - The company has already opened 339 stores in 13 European countries, indicating a strong start to its international sales strategy [2][330][331].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Nameson Holdings with a target price of HKD 1.01, indicating an upside potential of 24.7% from the current price of HKD 0.81 [1]. Core Insights - Nameson's 1HFY25 results were largely in line with expectations, with sales and adjusted net profit growing by 2.2% and 3.3% year-on-year, respectively, reaching HKD 2,726 million and HKD 299 million [1][6]. - The blended gross margin improved by 1.6 percentage points year-on-year to 19.9%, attributed to lower raw material prices and enhanced operational efficiency at the Vietnam plant [1][6]. - The company experienced a normalization in order volumes for whole garments, which temporarily affected total sales volume, while traditional knitwear and cashmere products provided volume support [1][6]. - Sales volume for Nameson reached 18 million pieces in 1HFY25, a decrease of 5.7% year-on-year, with cashmere sales volume increasing significantly by 74% year-on-year to 1.6 million pieces [1][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Nameson's 1HFY25 average selling price (ASP) remained stable year-on-year at approximately US$18, with cashmere sales enjoying a higher ASP of around US$40, while traditional knitwear maintained an ASP of US$13-14 [1][6]. - The company expects FY25E sales to decline by approximately 1% year-on-year, primarily due to lower whole garment sales volume, offset by a stable blended ASP due to a better product mix [1][6]. Market Dynamics - Sales in Europe and Southeast Asia outperformed, growing by 23.1% and 37.7% year-on-year, respectively, driven by favorable weather and clients' overseas expansion [1][6]. - Conversely, sales in Japan and China faced challenges, declining by 23% and 3.9% year-on-year, respectively, due to late winter and macroeconomic headwinds [1][6]. Operational Insights - Nameson manufactured 70% of its total sweaters in Vietnam during 1HFY25, with plans to continue expanding capacity in Central Vietnam [3]. - The company has ramped up its cashmere yarn production, achieving over 550 tons in 1HFY25, with a significant increase in revenue from its branded cashmere yarn, M.oro, which rose by 26.8% to approximately HKD 419 million [4][5]. Valuation and Outlook - Nameson is trading at an undemanding FY25E/26E PE of 4.4x/4.0x, which is approximately a 46% discount to peers' average [7]. - The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with a low net gearing ratio of 14.3% in 1HFY25, allowing for a sustainable payout ratio of around 75% [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2]. Core Views - The company is undergoing a restructuring of its hydropower assets, positioning itself as a flagship in clean energy [2]. - The total electricity sales volume for the first ten months of the year reached 108,220,668 MWh, representing a significant increase of 30.56% year-on-year [2]. - The company plans to sell its hydropower assets (5.9 GW) to its parent company's subsidiary, Yuanda Environmental Protection, in exchange for newly issued shares, which will enhance its position in the clean energy sector [2]. - The company aims to integrate approximately 20 GW of remaining hydropower assets into Yuanda Environmental Protection over the next three years [2]. - The company has accelerated the construction of wind and solar projects, with a total of 3.3 GW of new clean energy capacity added in the first half of the year [2]. - The company targets a clean energy installed capacity ratio of 90% by 2025, with expected new installations of about 7 GW for the year [2]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The company reported a year-on-year increase in wind power sales volume of 57.05% and solar power sales volume of 79.55% [2]. - Hydropower sales volume increased by 62.62% due to improved water conditions in the first half of the year [2]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenue growth from 44,262 million in 2023 to 50,228 million in 2024, representing a 13.5% increase [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to rise from 2,660 million in 2023 to 5,109 million in 2024, indicating a 92.1% growth [4]. - The company expects to achieve a basic earnings per share of 0.41 in 2024, up from 0.22 in 2023 [4]. Asset Management - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 305,807 million in 2023 to 329,340 million in 2024 [4]. - The debt ratio is expected to increase from 68.9% in 2023 to 70.7% in 2024, indicating a rising leverage [4]. Market Position - The company aims to solidify its status as a comprehensive clean energy flagship platform, leveraging its control over Yuanda Environmental Protection [2]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 4.73 HKD, reflecting a potential upside of 52% from the current price of 3.11 HKD [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a maintained rating over the next six months [1]. Core Views - The company has shown a positive growth trend in its manufacturing business, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 17% in November 2024 and a cumulative increase of 10.9% [1]. - The overall revenue for the listed companies in November 2024 reached 680 million USD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.5% and a cumulative growth of 3.4% [1]. - The company is optimistic about the long-term prospects of the sports industry and aims to diversify its manufacturing capacity [1]. - The company maintains a strong focus on shareholder returns, with a dividend payout ratio of approximately 70% in 2023 and a mid-year dividend of 0.40 HKD in 2024 [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Projected revenues for FY24-26 are 8.65 billion USD, 9.65 billion USD, and 10.94 billion USD respectively, with corresponding net profits of 460 million USD, 540 million USD, and 620 million USD [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.28 USD, 0.33 USD, and 0.38 USD for FY24, FY25, and FY26 respectively, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 8x, 7x, and 6x [2]. Market Position - The company is positioned to capture excess growth opportunities in a relatively stable market, benefiting from a strong customer base and improved supply chain capabilities [1]. - The company’s strategy includes targeting labor supply and infrastructure in Indonesia and India to support sustainable growth [1].

Company Overview - Current price: HKD 3 23 with a total market cap of HKD 29 323 38 million [2] - 52-week price range: HKD 2 73 - 6 82 [2] - 3-month average daily turnover: HKD 410 95 million [2] - Major shareholders: Li Xianyi and related parties (26 50%), Xinyi Glass (868 HK) (23 68%) [8] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2022: HKD 20 544 million, with a growth rate of 27 9% YoY [3] - Revenue for 2023: HKD 26 629 million, with a growth rate of 29 6% YoY [3] - Forecasted revenue for 2024: HKD 24 771 million, a decline of 7 0% YoY [3] - Forecasted revenue for 2025: HKD 27 534 million, with a growth rate of 11 2% YoY [3] - Forecasted revenue for 2026: HKD 30 583 million, with a growth rate of 11 1% YoY [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2022: HKD 3 820 million, with a decline of 22 4% YoY [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023: HKD 4 187 million, with a growth rate of 9 6% YoY [3] - Forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024: HKD 2 977 million, a decline of 28 9% YoY [3] - Forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025: HKD 3 243 million, with a growth rate of 8 9% YoY [3] - Forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2026: HKD 3 584 million, with a growth rate of 10 5% YoY [3] Operational Highlights - Cumulative cold repair of nine photovoltaic glass production lines by November, with a total daily capacity of 7 000 tons [4] - Six new photovoltaic glass production lines completed in 2024, with two 1 200-ton lines in Malaysia and two 1 000-ton lines in Wuhu, Anhui [4] - Expected daily capacity at the end of FY24: 23 200 tons, a 10 1% decline from FY23 [4] - Effective annual melting volume for FY24 expected to decrease by 3 1% to 7 6 million tons [4] - Effective annual melting volume for FY25 and FY26 expected to rebound by 15 5% and 3 0% respectively [4] Market and Pricing Trends - Photovoltaic glass (3 2mm coated) market average price as of December 11: RMB 19 25 per square meter, down 27 4% from the beginning of the year and 9 4% from the end of September [5] - Recent declines in raw material prices (soda ash and natural gas) have helped mitigate the impact of glass price reductions on profit margins [5] Analyst Ratings and Target Price - Current rating: Neutral [5] - Target price: HKD 3 22, representing a 0 5% downside from the current price [5] - FY25 target P/E ratio adjusted from 8 0x to 9 0x to reflect stabilizing macroeconomic risks [5] Historical Recommendations - On February 29, 2024: Buy rating maintained with a target price of HKD 7 22 [25] - On July 31, 2024: Downgraded to Neutral with a target price of HKD 3 98 [25] - On October 25, 2024: Neutral rating maintained with a target price of HKD 3 85 [25] - On December 11, 2024: Neutral rating maintained with a target price of HKD 3 22 [25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 2.6% year-on-year to HKD 35.11 billion in the first half of the 2024/25 fiscal year, while gross profit increased by 2.3% to HKD 5.86 billion. The attributable profit decreased by 3.8% to HKD 1.76 billion [3][6] - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of HKD 0.15 per share, unchanged from the previous year, resulting in a dividend yield of 7.8% based on the closing price on December 6, 2024 [4][10] - Natural gas retail volume grew by 1.4% year-on-year, with a gross margin increase to HKD 0.59 per cubic meter. The full-year gross margin guidance remains at HKD 0.53 per cubic meter, while the retail gas growth forecast has been adjusted down to 2% [3][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of the 2024/25 fiscal year, the company reported a revenue of HKD 35.11 billion, a decrease of 2.6% year-on-year, and a gross profit of HKD 5.86 billion, an increase of 2.3%. The attributable profit was HKD 1.76 billion, down 3.8% [3][6] - The natural gas sales segment saw a revenue decline of 9.6% to HKD 19.64 billion, while segment profit increased by 6.3% to HKD 1.66 billion [4][7] Business Segments - The LPG business segment reported a revenue increase of 13.5% to HKD 9.558 billion, but segment profit decreased to HKD 2.01 million. The value-added services segment's revenue rose by 1.0% to HKD 2.57 billion, with segment profit increasing by 11.0% to HKD 1.24 billion [4][10] - The company achieved 904,000 new residential connections in the first half of the fiscal year, with a full-year target of 1.2 to 1.4 million connections [8] Future Outlook - The company expects attributable net profits for the fiscal years 2024/25, 2025/26, and 2026/27 to reach HKD 3.763 billion, HKD 3.992 billion, and HKD 4.423 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 18.1%, 6.1%, and 10.8% respectively [4][10]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HK$ 32.80, up from a previous target of HK$ 19.90 [2]. Core Insights - The company has shown robust shipment growth and continuous improvement in gross margins, leading to a revaluation of its stock. The gross margin for the third quarter reached 17.5%, marking three consecutive quarters of increase, while the net profit margin significantly narrowed from -37.4% in the second quarter to -20.4% in the third quarter [2]. - The sales volume of LiDAR for Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) is expected to grow predictably, with third-quarter sales reaching 131,400 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 87.1% [2]. - The company is making significant progress in the high-level autonomous driving sector, securing partnerships with leading L4+ autonomous driving companies, which is a crucial step for its autonomous driving business [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved total revenue of RMB 410 million, with RMB 380 million coming from LiDAR sales. The gross profit margin improved to 17.5%, and the net profit margin narrowed to -20.4% [2]. - The projected revenue for the upcoming years is as follows: RMB 1,120.1 million in 2024, RMB 1,706.6 million in 2025, RMB 2,591.2 million in 2026, and RMB 3,337.5 million in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [8]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company is targeting the RMB 150,000 to 200,000 automotive market, with established partnerships with seven automakers. The MX product line is expected to contribute significantly to future sales, potentially accounting for 30-40% of total sales by 2025 [2]. - The report highlights the strong demand for LiDAR in robotics, with sales reaching approximately 7,200 units in Q3, driven by the Helios and BPearl series [2]. Operational Efficiency - Continuous improvement in gross margins is attributed to scale effects and reduced procurement costs. The gross margins for ADAS and robotics applications reached 14.1% and 34.6%, respectively [2]. - The report anticipates that the company will continue to enhance its gross profit levels due to increased penetration of MX products and growth in autonomous driving business revenues [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 55.72 HKD per share, compared to the current price of 50.85 HKD [4]. Core Insights - The company has received priority approval for its injectable recombinant collagen filler, which is part of a key national R&D program in medical devices. This product specifically targets neck wrinkles [1]. - The company has a diverse pipeline in the medical aesthetics sector, with four products under development, including liquid and solid formulations of recombinant collagen for various skin concerns [1]. - The brand's performance on social media platforms like Douyin shows significant growth, with year-on-year increases of 57% and 615% for its key products in November [1]. - The company's current market capitalization corresponds to a PE ratio of 23x for 2024 and 18x for 2025, with expectations for steady growth in its cosmetics business and additional upside from its medical aesthetics segment [1]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected revenue for 2024 is 5,398 million RMB, with a growth rate of 53.2%. By 2026, revenue is expected to reach 8,348 million RMB, with a growth rate of 20.1% [2]. - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is 2,120 million RMB, with a growth rate of 46.0%, increasing to 3,174 million RMB by 2026 [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 2.06 RMB in 2024, rising to 3.09 RMB by 2026 [2]. - The company maintains a strong return on equity (ROE) of 39.0% in 2024, slightly decreasing to 38.0% by 2026 [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Mobvista (1860 HK) with a 6-month target price of HKD 12 8 [1][4] Core Views - Mobvista's Q3 2024 revenue reached $416 million, a 54 6% YoY increase, with adjusted net profit of $11 million, up 162 4% YoY [1] - The company's programmatic advertising platform, Mintegral, contributed $402 million in revenue, a 57 6% YoY increase, driven by its smart bidding capabilities and expansion into new verticals [2] - Mintegral's game category revenue grew 46 5% YoY to $295 million, accounting for 73 2% of its total revenue, while non-game categories surged 98 5% YoY to $108 million, with e-commerce being a key driver [2] - The company's gross margin improved by 0 5pp YoY to 21 1%, supported by a 0 9pp increase in ad tech gross margin to 20 6% [2] - Mobvista has achieved consecutive quarters of profitability since Q4 2022, demonstrating strong scale effects [2] Financial and Valuation Summary - Revenue is expected to grow from $894 4 million in 2024E to $2,084 9 million in 2026E, with a CAGR of 23 9% [3] - Adjusted net profit is projected to increase from $9 7 million in 2024E to $82 9 million in 2026E, with a CAGR of 71 4% [3] - EPS is forecasted to rise from $0 02 in 2024E to $0 05 in 2026E [3] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decline from 49 3x in 2024E to 22 2x in 2026E, reflecting strong earnings growth [3] Business Performance and Strategy - Mintegral's smart bidding system has gained market validation, with ROAS (Return on Ad Spend) becoming a mainstream choice for developers [2] - The platform has expanded into mid-to-hardcore games and non-game verticals such as e-commerce and social, driving diversification [2] - Non-programmatic ad revenue declined slightly by 0 5% YoY to $9 94 million, while marketing tech revenue grew 1% YoY to $4 million, supported by overseas expansion and cost optimization [2] Financial Metrics - Gross margin for ad tech improved to 20 6%, while marketing tech gross margin declined by 13 5pp to 68 9% [2] - Sales expenses increased by 32 7% YoY due to rising bidding costs, and R&D expenses surged 59 7% YoY due to investments in the smart bidding system [2] - The company's ROE is expected to rise from 7 6% in 2024E to 13 0% in 2026E, reflecting improved profitability [10]