2025 年 4 月 8 日 公司研究 聚焦核心城市，销售保持增长信心 ——越秀地产（0123.HK）动态跟踪 要点 事件：公司发布 2024 年业绩公告和 2025 年 1-3 月销售资料。 点评： 开发业务结算放量，毛利率下滑明显：2024 年，公司实现营业收入 864 亿元， 同比增长 7.7%，营收增长主要受房地产开发业务结算收入增长带动，年内房地 产开发业务实现营收 806 亿元，同比增长 7.2%；公司综合毛利率为 10.5%，同 比下降 4.8pct，主要因计提 22.7 亿元存货减值损失（同比增长 44.4%）及前期 低毛利项目集中结算等影响；公司归母净利润 10.4 亿元，同比下降 67.3%，其 中核心归母净利润为 15.9 亿元，同比下降 54.4%，主要受毛利率下降等影响。 截至 2024 年末，公司已售未结销售额约 1701 亿元，同比下降 14.7%，合同负 债覆盖营收 0.97 倍，预计后续开发业务结算增速或有所放缓。 2024 市场排名提升，2025 销售保持增长信心：2024 年，公司实现销售额 1145 亿元，同比下降 19.4%，年度销售首次进入全国前 10，位列第 8， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 15.098 billion HKD for 2024, a decrease of 55% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -4.75 billion HKD, indicating a shift from profit to loss [5][8]. - The company has optimized its cash cost for granular silicon to 33.52 HKD/kg in 2024, with further improvements expected as the cash cost was reduced to 27.14 HKD/kg in the first two months of 2025 [8]. - The company has a production capacity of 480,000 tons for granular silicon, with an output of 269,200 tons and a shipment volume of 282,000 tons in 2024 [8]. - The company’s silicon wafer sales volume was 33.525 GW in 2024, a decrease of 35.4% year-on-year, primarily due to industry price declines [8]. - The gross margin for the photovoltaic power station segment dropped to 16.9% in 2024 from 46.7% in 2023, impacting overall performance [8]. - Administrative expenses were reduced to 1.855 billion HKD in 2024, down 18.5% year-on-year, due to salary reductions and cost control measures [8]. - The company aims to achieve positive cash flow in Q1 2025 and anticipates a turnaround in performance, supported by cost control and a significant reduction in director salaries [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 was 15.098 billion HKD, a 55% decrease year-on-year [5][8]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was -4.75 billion HKD, indicating a loss [5][8]. Production and Sales - Granular silicon production capacity is 480,000 tons, with 2024 output at 269,200 tons and shipments at 282,000 tons [8]. - Silicon wafer sales volume was 33.525 GW in 2024, down 35.4% year-on-year [8]. Cost Management - Cash cost for granular silicon was 33.52 HKD/kg in 2024, with further optimization to 27.14 HKD/kg in early 2025 [8]. - Administrative expenses decreased to 1.855 billion HKD in 2024, an 18.5% reduction [8]. Future Outlook - The company expects to achieve positive cash flow in Q1 2025 and aims for a performance turnaround [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that short-term factors such as capital market fluctuations and natural disasters do not affect the company's robust fundamentals and profitability. It anticipates a continued upward trend in industry concentration in the medium to long term, supporting the company's asset and liability improvements and valuation upside [8][5]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - In the 2024 annual report, the company achieved insurance service revenue of 485.22 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.1%. The underwriting profitability slightly declined due to natural disasters in the first and third quarters, with the combined cost ratio increasing by 1.0 percentage point to 98.8%. The expense ratio improved by 1.4 percentage points, highlighting the company's cost control advantages. The market share of original premiums reached 31.8%, maintaining the industry's leading position [8][5]. - The company’s investment income was robust, with total investment income of 34.94 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 67.9%. The total investment return rate was 5.5%, up by 2.0 percentage points. The allocation structure saw an increase in stocks from 6% in 2023 to 7.3%, while funds decreased from 7.7% to 5.4% [8][5]. Future Expectations - The company is expected to perform well in the first quarter of 2025, as the natural disaster situation has improved compared to the previous year, which saw significant claims. The capital market performance in early 2025 is also anticipated to be better than the same period last year, contributing to strong asset performance [8][5]. - The company’s solvency ratio was reported at 211.0%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points from 2023, indicating strong solvency and the ability to sustain dividends in the future [8][5]. Market Outlook - The report expresses optimism about the company's future, suggesting that the combination of improved asset and liability management will create significant upside potential. The report also notes that regulatory enhancements in market competition will likely lead to increased industry concentration over the long term [8][5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.446 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.06%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 12.40% to 598 million yuan [1][2]. - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 29.90%, down by 1.65 percentage points, with a significant decline in the second half of 2024 [2]. - The hospital business generated 4.322 billion yuan in revenue, up 11.11%, with outpatient services growing by 20.84% and inpatient services by 5.93% [3]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its oncology specialty and exploring AI integration in medical services [3]. Financial Summary - The company expects revenues of 4.885 billion yuan in 2025, 5.343 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.818 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 671 million yuan, 777 million yuan, and 884 million yuan respectively [4][10]. - The projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 10.66, 9.20, and 8.08 respectively [4][10]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 11.850 billion yuan in 2025 to 14.030 billion yuan in 2027 [10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of 15% to 35% [4][13]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of RMB 85 billion to 100 billion in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 86.04% to 118.88% [8]. - The company sold 1 million vehicles from January to March 2025, marking a 59.8% increase year-on-year, setting a new record for the same period [8]. - The launch of new models, Han L and Tang L, is anticipated to enhance the company's competitiveness in the 200,000 RMB price range [10]. - The company is projected to have net profits of RMB 516 billion, 653 billion, and 788 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 28%, 26%, and 21% [10][12]. Company Overview - The company operates primarily in the automotive industry, with 79.5% of its business coming from automotive sales and 20.5% from mobile components and assembly [5]. - As of April 7, 2025, the company's H-share price was 315.20 HKD, with a market capitalization of 95.79 billion RMB [3]. Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of RMB 30.041 billion in 2023, with projections of RMB 40.254 billion in 2024 and RMB 51.629 billion in 2025, reflecting significant growth [12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from RMB 10.319 in 2023 to RMB 17.746 in 2025, indicating a strong upward trend [12]. - The company's H-share price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 30.54 in 2023 to 17.76 in 2025, suggesting a more attractive valuation over time [12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of 15% to 35% [4][13]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of RMB 85 billion to 100 billion in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 86.04% to 118.88% [8]. - The automotive sales for the first three months of 2025 reached 1 million units, a year-on-year increase of 59.8%, setting a historical record for the same period [8]. - The launch of new models, Han L and Tang L, is anticipated to enhance the company's competitiveness in the 200,000 RMB price range [10]. Company Overview - The company operates primarily in the automotive industry, with 79.5% of its business derived from automotive sales and 20.5% from mobile components and assembly [5]. - As of April 7, 2025, the company's H-share price was 315.20 HKD, with a market capitalization of 95.79 billion RMB [3]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of RMB 516 billion, 653 billion, and 788 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 28%, 26%, and 21% [8][12]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be RMB 17.8, 22.4, and 27.1 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [8][12]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for H-shares are estimated at 17.8, 14.1, and 11.6 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, indicating a reasonable valuation [8][12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [5][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit growth of 42% in 2024, driven by significant growth in online channels [5]. - The company reported a revenue of RMB 55.4 billion for 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 57.2%, with a net profit of RMB 21.5 billion, up 42.1% year-over-year [7]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of RMB 0.6021 per share, with a special dividend of RMB 0.5921, resulting in a dividend yield of approximately 2.1% based on the latest closing price [7]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to be RMB 30.0 billion for the second half, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 56.3%, with a net profit of RMB 10.8 billion, up 37.5% [7]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 is reported at 82.1%, a slight decrease of 1.5 percentage points year-over-year, attributed to product category expansion and increased costs [7]. - The total revenue for the company is forecasted to reach RMB 72.9 billion by 2025, with net profits expected to grow to RMB 26.5 billion [9][12]. Product and Sales Performance - The company’s main brand, 可复美, achieved revenue of RMB 45.4 billion in 2024, marking a year-over-year increase of 62.9%, with strong sales during major promotional events [7]. - Online sales channels have become a significant growth driver, with the company reporting over 60% and 100% growth in GMV during the "618" and "Double Eleven" promotions, respectively [7]. - The company’s online direct sales revenue accounted for 72% of total revenue, an increase of 6 percentage points year-over-year [7]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of RMB 32.9 billion and RMB 40.2 billion in 2026 and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 3.20 and RMB 3.91 [9][12]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 22X in 2025 to 15X in 2027, indicating a potentially undervalued stock [7][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 2.13 billion in 2024, a decrease of 53.1%, primarily due to a reduction in licensing revenue, while commercial sales revenue increased by 24.9% to RMB 2.00 billion [3][16]. - The company has effectively managed costs, with a significant decline in expense ratios, leading to a narrowed operating net loss of RMB 660 million, down 16.7% year-over-year [4][18]. - The clinical pipeline is advancing steadily, with key programs such as Cadonilimab and Ivonescimab making progress in various clinical trials [5][19]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are RMB 3.41 billion, RMB 5.45 billion, and RMB 7.31 billion, reflecting year-over-year growth of 60% and 34% in subsequent years [11][34]. - The company is expected to turn a profit in 2025, achieving a net profit of RMB 50 million [11][34]. - The gross profit margin is projected to remain high, with estimates of 92.3% in 2025 and 92.9% in 2027 [15]. Clinical Pipeline Progress - Cadonilimab is involved in multiple clinical trials, including adjuvant treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma and combination therapies for non-small cell lung cancer [5][19]. - Ivonescimab is also progressing in various trials, including first-line treatments for biliary tract cancer and head and neck squamous cell carcinoma [20][23]. - The company has several NDA/sNDA approvals expected in 2025, which could significantly impact revenue and market position [9][25]. Cost Management - The company has demonstrated excellent cost management, with R&D expenses decreasing by 5.3% due to the transition of certain clinical research services to in-house execution [4][18]. - Selling expenses grew at a lower rate than commercial sales revenue, resulting in a decline in the selling expense ratio by 5.5 percentage points [4][18]. Valuation - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 96.6 per share based on a DCF model, reflecting a WACC of 10.0% and a perpetual growth rate of 3.0% [11][34].

2025 年 04 月 08 日 王睿哲 C0062@capital.com.tw 目标价(HKD) 75 公司基本资讯 | 产业别 | 美容护理 | | --- | --- | | H 股价(2025/04/07) | 60.90 | | 恒生指数(2025/04/07) | 19,828.3 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | 72.8/35.7 | | 总发行股数(百万) | 1,035.90 | | H 股数(百万) | 1,035.90 | | H 市值(亿元) | 630.87 | | 主要股东 | 范代娣 (57.32%) | | 每股净值(元) | 6.91 | | 股价/账面净值 | 8.81 | | 一个月 三个月 | 一年 | | 股价涨跌(%) -12.12% 26.88% 46.25% | | 近期评等 | 出刊日期 | 前日收盘 | 评等 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2024-09-26 | 39.95 | 买进 | | 产品组合 | | | --- | --- | | 功效性护肤品 | 78.6% | | 医用敷料 | 23.3% | | 保健品及其他 | 0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in stock price compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [14]. Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 14,024 million HKD in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1,511 million HKD, up by 12.5% [3][5]. - The improvement in profitability is attributed to an increase in property management area and enhanced value-added services, with the gross profit margin rising from 15.9% to 16.6% [5][9]. - The company proposed a dividend of 0.095 HKD per share, an increase from 0.085 HKD in 2023, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [3][5]. Revenue Performance - The company reported a main business revenue of 14,024 million HKD for 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7% projected for 2025 [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from 1,511 million HKD in 2024 to 1,870 million HKD by 2026, reflecting a steady growth trajectory [2][9]. Business Segments - The property management area increased to 431 million square meters, a 7.4% growth year-on-year, with third-party project area contributing 39.4% [7]. - The revenue from property management services rose to 76.1% of total revenue, up from 72.1% in 2023, indicating a strategic focus on core business [7]. Value-Added Services - The non-residential value-added services revenue decreased by 14.7% year-on-year to 1,829 million HKD, while residential value-added services revenue grew by 7.2% to 1,385 million HKD, maintaining its share of total revenue [8][9]. - The company is actively optimizing its service structure in response to the downturn in the real estate sector [8]. Financial Projections - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.46 HKD in 2024 to 0.63 HKD by 2027, reflecting a consistent growth outlook [2][9]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decline from 9.9 in 2025 to 7.2 by 2027, indicating potential undervaluation [2][9].