腾讯控股:港股公司信息更新报告:新游戏周期及微信生态商业化有望继续驱动增长
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2024-11-15 14:54
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The new game cycle and the commercialization of the WeChat ecosystem are expected to continue driving growth for the company [1][3] - The company achieved a revenue of 487.8 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7%, with a net profit of 142.7 billion yuan, up 62% year-on-year [3] - The report highlights strong performance in domestic gaming and marketing services, with significant contributions from popular games and advertising demand [3][5] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 167.2 billion yuan (up 8% year-on-year) and a net profit of 53.2 billion yuan (up 47% year-on-year) [3] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 53% (up 4 percentage points year-on-year), driven by high-margin revenue growth from domestic gaming and video services [4] - The Non-IFRS net profit margin reached 35.8% in Q3 2024, an increase of 6.7 percentage points year-on-year [4] Growth Drivers - The company’s new games have shown strong performance, with titles like "DNF Mobile" consistently ranking at the top of the iOS sales charts [5] - The WeChat ecosystem's commercialization efficiency is improving, with the GMV of mini-programs exceeding 2 trillion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth [5] - The report anticipates continued revenue growth from new game launches and the expanding user base of the WeChat platform [5] Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for the company has been revised upwards, with expected net profits of 193 billion yuan, 217 billion yuan, and 236 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3] - Corresponding EPS estimates are 20.8 yuan, 23.4 yuan, and 25.5 yuan for the same years, with current price-to-earnings ratios of 17.9, 15.9, and 14.6 [3][6]
哔哩哔哩-W:港股公司信息更新报告:首次实现单季度盈利,游戏、广告持续驱动盈利提升
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2024-11-15 14:23
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved its first quarterly profit in Q3 2024, driven by continuous growth in gaming and advertising sectors [3][4] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 19.097 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.04%, with Q3 revenue at 7.306 billion, up 25.85% year-on-year and 19.23% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The adjusted net profit for Q3 2024 was 236 million, marking a turnaround from previous losses [3] - The company is optimistic about the growth potential in gaming, membership, advertising, and IP monetization, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2024-2026 [3] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the gross margin was 34.9%, an increase of 9.9 percentage points year-on-year and 5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [4] - The sales expense ratio was 16.5%, management expense ratio was 6.9%, and R&D expense ratio was 12.4%, indicating effective cost control [4] - The company expects net profits of -1.227 billion, 302 million, and 1.359 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of -2.9, 0.7, and 3.2 [3][6] User Engagement and Growth - Daily Active Users (DAU) reached 1.07 million in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4%, while Monthly Active Users (MAU) reached 3.48 million, up 2% year-on-year [5] - The DAU/MAU ratio was 30.75%, indicating improved user engagement [5] - Average daily usage time per user was 106 minutes, a historical high, suggesting increased user retention and potential for enhanced monetization [5]
腾讯控股:广告业务增加份额,经营杠杆持续提效
Guoxin Securities· 2024-11-15 14:06
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4]. Core Views - The company's revenue for Q3 2024 reached 167.1 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, primarily driven by growth in advertising and gaming businesses, while the fintech sector showed weakness due to macroeconomic factors [7][4]. - Adjusted operating profit for Q3 2024 was 61.3 billion RMB, up 19% year-on-year, with Non-IFRS net profit at 59.8 billion RMB, reflecting a 33% increase [7][4]. - The company is expected to continue releasing high-margin business potential as WeChat traffic is optimized, with significant transaction volume facilitated by mini-programs exceeding 2 trillion RMB in Q3 2024 [8][4]. Summary by Sections Advertising Business - In Q3 2024, the company's online advertising revenue was 30 billion RMB, a 17% increase year-on-year, benefiting from enhanced internal transaction capabilities and technological upgrades [13][4]. - Video account marketing services saw revenue growth of over 60%, significantly enhancing WeChat's transaction capabilities [13][4]. Gaming Business - The company's gaming revenue for Q3 2024 was 51.8 billion RMB, a 13% year-on-year increase, with deferred revenue at 106.6 billion RMB, up 20% [11][4]. - Domestic gaming revenue rose 14% to 37.3 billion RMB, with strong performances from titles like "Valorant" and "Honor of Kings" [11][4]. Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Revenue from fintech and enterprise services grew 2% year-on-year to 53.1 billion RMB, with payment revenue decline offset by growth in wealth management services [14][4]. Financial Forecasts - The company maintains its profit forecasts, expecting adjusted net profits of 219.8 billion RMB, 248.2 billion RMB, and 272.9 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4][4].
网易-S:端游表现强劲,预计为短期增长驱动
浦银国际证券· 2024-11-15 14:06
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price adjusted to HKD 160 / USD 103, reflecting a potential upside of 34% and 22% respectively from current prices [3][6][18]. Core Insights - The company's overall performance in Q3 2024 was slightly below expectations, with revenue of RMB 26.2 billion, a year-on-year decline of 3.9% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.8%. This was 1.4% lower than market expectations. The adjusted net profit was RMB 7.5 billion, also below market expectations by 5.9% [1][3]. - The gaming segment showed mixed results, with total gaming revenue of RMB 20.2 billion, a year-on-year decline of 1% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5%. Mobile game revenue decreased by 10% due to high base effects from last year, while PC game revenue increased by 29% [2][3]. - The company is expected to see short-term growth driven by strong performance in PC games, particularly with upcoming titles and the return of Blizzard games to the Chinese market [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 revenue was RMB 26.2 billion, with a gross margin of 62.9%, up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year. The adjusted net profit margin was 28.6% [1][3]. - Revenue forecasts for FY24E and FY25E have been adjusted to RMB 105.6 billion and RMB 112.4 billion respectively, with adjusted net profit forecasts of RMB 31.9 billion and RMB 33.4 billion [3][4]. - The gaming segment's gross margin slightly decreased to 68.8%, while the overall gross margin improved [2][3]. Market Expectations - The target price reflects a P/E ratio of 14.3x for FY25E, indicating confidence in the company's long-term gaming operations and potential for new game releases [3][4]. - The stock is currently trading at HKD 119.5, with a 52-week range of HKD 116 to HKD 185.7, and a market capitalization of HKD 428.9 billion [5][6].
哔哩哔哩-W:实现首次盈利,游戏和广告增长强劲
浦银国际证券· 2024-11-15 14:05
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price adjusted to HKD 177, indicating a potential upside of 9% from the current price of HKD 162.4 [9][24]. Core Insights - The company achieved its first adjusted profit in Q3 2024, reporting revenue of RMB 7.31 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26%, surpassing market expectations by 2%. The adjusted net profit for the same quarter was RMB 236 million, with an adjusted profit margin of 3.2% [7][8]. - The company announced a share buyback plan worth USD 200 million, approximately 2.3% of its current market capitalization [7]. - Strong growth in gaming and advertising segments was highlighted, with daily active users increasing by 4.4% year-on-year to 107 million and monthly active users rising by 2.1% to 348 million, both reaching new highs [8]. - The advertising business grew by 28% year-on-year, driven by increased traffic and the gradual release of user commercial value, with expectations for a 22% year-on-year growth in Q4 advertising revenue [8]. - Gaming revenue surged by 84% year-on-year to RMB 1.82 billion, supported by the success of the game "Three Kingdoms: Strategize the World," with expectations for a 76% year-on-year growth in Q4 gaming revenue [8]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: FY22 at RMB 21.9 billion, FY23 at RMB 22.5 billion, FY24E at RMB 26.7 billion, FY25E at RMB 29.5 billion, and FY26E at RMB 32.5 billion [6][12]. - The company is expected to achieve an operating profit of RMB 590 million in FY25 and RMB 1.6 billion in FY26, with adjusted net profits projected to reach RMB 2.2 billion in FY25 and RMB 3.2 billion in FY26 [6][12]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was reported at 34.9%, with expectations for further improvement to 36% in Q4 [8]. Market Performance - The company's stock has a 52-week price range of HKD 67.8 to HKD 238.8, with a total market capitalization of HKD 62.05 billion [9][24]. - The report indicates a potential upside of 24% for the US-listed shares, with a target price of USD 23, compared to the current price of USD 18.59 [9][24]. Conclusion - The report emphasizes the company's strong performance in gaming and advertising, alongside its first adjusted profit, as key drivers for maintaining a positive outlook and "Buy" rating [9][24].
京东集团-SW:2024Q3点评:利润表现亮眼,零售业务将加大用户投入
Guoxin Securities· 2024-11-15 13:21
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for JD Group [5][12][3] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 260.4 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.1%. Retail revenue was 225 billion yuan, up 6.1% year-on-year, with active user numbers and daily active users (DAU) showing double-digit growth [1][6] - Non-GAAP net profit reached 13.2 billion yuan, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 5.1%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The adjusted EBITDA margin improved from 5.2% to 5.8% [2][7] - The management indicated that the performance during the Double 11 shopping festival exceeded internal expectations, with both user numbers and purchase frequency achieving double-digit growth [1][6] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 1,135.6 billion yuan, 1,202.9 billion yuan, and 1,282.3 billion yuan, with slight adjustments of +0.1% for each year. Adjusted net profits are forecasted at 44.8 billion yuan, 50.1 billion yuan, and 55.4 billion yuan, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11% [3][12] - The company is expected to maintain a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 9x for 2024, with a target price range of 162-194 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 20%-44% from the current price [3][12] Shareholder Returns - In Q3 2024, the company repurchased 31 million shares for approximately 390 million USD, representing 1.1% of the shares outstanding as of June 30, 2024. A new buyback plan was approved in August 2024, allowing for the repurchase of up to 5 billion USD worth of shares by August 2027 [2][7]
阿里健康:FY2025H1财报点评:收入利润稳健增长,平台业务发展良好
Guoxin Securities· 2024-11-15 11:17
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][10][3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 14.3 billion HKD for FY2025H1, representing a year-on-year growth of 10%, primarily driven by the rapid growth of its pharmaceutical platform business [1][7] - The adjusted net profit margin increased from 5.0% to 6.8% year-on-year, and the gross profit margin improved from 22.1% to 24.8%, attributed to a shift in product mix towards higher-margin health equipment and supply chain efficiency [2][7] - The company expects continued growth in online health consumption, with online growth rates significantly outpacing offline [8] Revenue Summary - The company's pharmaceutical self-operated revenue reached 12.1 billion HKD, a 6% increase year-on-year, with a focus on optimizing the self-operated product category structure [1][7] - E-commerce platform service revenue surged to 1.7 billion HKD, marking a 68% increase, mainly due to the integration of health category advertising and improved advertising-platform synergy [1][7] - Revenue from healthcare and digital services declined to 440 million HKD, a 9% decrease year-on-year [1][7] Profit Summary - The adjusted net profit for FY2025 is projected to be 2.035 billion HKD, with a significant increase of 47% from previous estimates, driven by the acquisition of Alibaba's advertising business [3][10] - The company aims to maintain a disciplined approach to investment while gradually increasing its market share in platform business [2][7] - The forecasted adjusted net profit for FY2026 is 2.495 billion HKD, and for FY2027, it is expected to reach 3.242 billion HKD [6][10] Financial Metrics - The company’s current stock price corresponds to a FY2025 price-to-earnings ratio of 31x, with a target price range of 5.52 to 5.78 HKD, indicating an upside potential of 32% to 39% from the current price [3][10] - The projected revenue for FY2025 is 31.052 billion HKD, with a year-on-year growth of 14.9% [6][10] - The adjusted net profit margin is expected to reach 6.6% in FY2025, increasing to 8.5% by FY2027 [6][10]
华润燃气:气润中华,优质区域为基,主业持续增长+“双综”业务快速布局
Soochow Securities· 2024-11-15 11:17
Investment Rating - Buy (First Coverage) [1] Core Views - The company is the largest city gas operator in China, with stable cash flow matching capital expenditures and steadily increasing dividends [1] - The gas sales business benefits from high-quality projects and improved profitability due to market-oriented reforms [1] - The company is rapidly expanding its comprehensive service and comprehensive energy businesses, creating new growth points [1] - The company's city gas projects are of high quality, with price adjustments driving profit recovery, and the dual-comprehensive business growing faster than the industry [1] Business Overview City Gas Operations - The company is the largest city gas operator in China, with 276 city gas projects across 25 provinces as of 2024H1 [1] - Retail gas sales reached 387.80 billion cubic meters in 2023, accounting for 10% of national consumption [1] - The company's retail gas volume grew at a CAGR of 9.8% from 2018 to 2023, with a 5.3% YoY increase in 2024H1 [1] - The company's gas sales gross margin improved to 0.54 yuan/cubic meter in 2024H1, up 0.04 yuan/cubic meter YoY [1] Comprehensive Services - The company has 55.808 million urban residential users as of 2023, with 72.9% located in tier 1-3 cities [1] - Comprehensive service segment profit grew 18.99% YoY to 1.37 billion HKD in 2023, and further increased 22.12% YoY to 760 million HKD in 2024H1 [1] - The company's market share in kitchen appliances and insurance businesses reached 8.6% and 23.0% respectively in 2023 [1] Comprehensive Energy Business - The company focuses on distributed photovoltaic, distributed energy, and transportation energy sectors [1] - Energy sales volume increased 84.9% YoY to 2.94 billion kWh in 2023, with a gross profit of 270 million HKD, up 125% YoY [1] - In 2024H1, energy sales volume grew 54.6% YoY to 1.49 billion kWh, with a gross profit of 160 million HKD, up 84.3% YoY [1] Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue is expected to reach 98.882 billion HKD in 2024, with a YoY decrease of 2.83% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 5.722 billion HKD in 2024, with a YoY increase of 9.5% [1] - EPS is expected to be 2.47 HKD in 2024, with a P/E ratio of 11.5x [1] Valuation and Peer Comparison - The company's net profit is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.1% from 2023 to 2026, faster than its peers [87] - The company's P/E ratio is 12.6x for 2023, 11.5x for 2024, 10.5x for 2025, and 9.7x for 2026, lower than the industry average [87]
澳博控股:2024年三季报点评:盈利略超预期,物业市占率持续攀升
Soochow Securities international· 2024-11-15 09:14
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 3.0 [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with net revenue reaching HKD 7.5 billion, recovering to 91% of Q3 2019 levels [1] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2024 was HKD 1.04 billion, surpassing the expected HKD 1.0 billion and recovering to 109.2% of Q3 2019 levels [1] - The company's market share in the gaming sector increased by 1.3 percentage points to 13.9% in Q3 2024 [1] - The new property, Grand Lisboa Palace, turned profitable in Q3 2024, contributing HKD 1.42 billion in gaming revenue, a 17.2% increase quarter-over-quarter [1] Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2023A was HKD 21,623.2 million, with a projected increase to HKD 28,921.2 million in 2024E, HKD 31,408.8 million in 2025E, and HKD 33,521.4 million in 2026E [1] - Adjusted property EBITDA for 2023A was HKD 1,928.0 million, expected to rise to HKD 3,786.5 million in 2024E, HKD 4,712.1 million in 2025E, and HKD 5,427.4 million in 2026E [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2023A was -HKD 0.28, projected to improve to HKD 0.03 in 2024E, HKD 0.18 in 2025E, and HKD 0.31 in 2026E [1] Market Share and Operational Improvements - The company's market share in the VIP segment recovered to 26.9% of 2019 levels, while the mass market segment (including slot machines) recovered to 101.8% of 2019 levels [1] - Grand Lisboa Palace's adjusted property EBITDA reached HKD 165 million in Q3 2024, marking a turnaround from losses [1] - The company plans to enhance service quality by introducing new VIP programs, opening more leisure restaurants, and renovating the Sky Phoenix VIP area [1] Operational Costs - Daily operating expenses in Q3 2024 were approximately HKD 20.9 million, a 5.2% increase quarter-over-quarter, primarily due to higher summer traffic [1] - Grand Lisboa Palace's daily operating expenses were HKD 7.6 million, up 8.4% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting its growth phase and increased marketing personnel [1] Valuation Metrics - The company's EV/Adjusted EBITDA for 2024E is 11.7x, expected to decrease to 9.4x in 2025E and 8.2x in 2026E [1] - The current price-to-book (P/B) ratio is 1.41x, with a market capitalization of HKD 19.46 billion [2][3]
百度集团-SW:24Q3前瞻:广告业务阶段性承压,文心一言砥砺前行
Tianfeng Securities· 2024-11-15 09:13
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu Group with a target price of 137 HKD, indicating an expected upside of over 20% within the next six months [1]. Core Insights - Baidu's total revenue for Q3 2024 is projected to be 33.6 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%. The Non-GAAP net profit is expected to be 6.2 billion CNY, down 14% year-on-year [1]. - The report anticipates that Baidu Core revenue will be 26.3 billion CNY, a decline of 1.2% year-on-year, with online marketing revenue at 18.7 billion CNY, down 5% [1]. - The AI cloud business is expected to grow, with revenue projected at 5 billion CNY, reflecting a 14% year-on-year increase. The user base for Wenxin Yiyan is expected to reach 430 million, with daily usage hitting 1.5 billion [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q3 2024 is expected to be 33.6 billion CNY, down 2.5% year-on-year. Non-GAAP net profit is projected at 6.2 billion CNY, a decrease of 14% [1]. - Baidu Core revenue is anticipated to be 26.3 billion CNY, with online marketing revenue at 18.7 billion CNY, down 5% year-on-year [1]. Business Segments - Non-online marketing revenue is expected to grow by 10% year-on-year, reaching 7.5 billion CNY. iQIYI's revenue is projected to be 7.6 billion CNY, down 5% [1]. - The AI cloud business is projected to achieve 5 billion CNY in revenue, marking a 14% increase year-on-year [1]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that while advertising recovery may be slower than expected, there could be a turning point next year. The application of large language models is expected to drive growth in Baidu's cloud business [1]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing development of AI applications and the establishment of an intelligent agent platform, which has attracted 150,000 enterprises and 800,000 developers [1].