证券研究报告·海外公司点评·食物饮品(HS) 颐海国际（01579.HK） 笃行不辍，期待修复 2025 年 05 月 22 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 6,156 | 6,540 | 7,191 | 7,907 | 8,680 | | 同比(%) | (0.11) | 6.24 | 9.96 | 9.96 | 9.78 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 852.70 | 739.43 | 849.32 | 945.72 | 1,051.16 | | 同比(%) | 14.92 | (13.28) | 14.86 | 11.35 | 11.15 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.82 | 0.71 | 0.82 | 0.91 | 1.01 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 14.90 | 17.19 | 14.96 | 13.44 | 12.09 | [Table_Tag] ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·食物饮品(HS) 颐海国际（01579.HK） 笃行不辍，期待修复 2025 年 05 月 22 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 6,156 | 6,540 | 7,191 | 7,907 | 8,680 | | 同比(%) | (0.11) | 6.24 | 9.96 | 9.96 | 9.78 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 852.70 | 739.43 | 849.32 | 945.72 | 1,051.16 | | 同比(%) | 14.92 | (13.28) | 14.86 | 11.35 | 11.15 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.82 | 0.71 | 0.82 | 0.91 | 1.01 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 14.90 | 17.19 | 14.96 | 13.44 | 12.09 | [Table_Tag] ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [3][9]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant improvement in its fundamentals, with a strong technological layout and a low-cost strategy, indicating robust momentum under the current circumstances [3]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw the company deliver 94,008 vehicles, with revenue reaching 15.81 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 330.8% and 141.4% respectively [1]. - The gross margin for the automotive business improved to 10.5%, driven by a favorable sales structure and cost management [2]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Deliveries**: In Q1 2025, the company delivered 94,008 vehicles, with revenue of 15.81 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 141.4% [1]. - **Cost Structure**: R&D and SG&A expenses were 1.98 billion yuan and 1.95 billion yuan respectively, with R&D and SG&A expense ratios at 12.5% and 12.3% [1]. - **Profitability**: The gross margin was 15.6%, with a net loss of 660 million yuan in Q1 [1]. The company expects to improve profitability through enhanced vehicle delivery and cost management [2]. - **Future Projections**: Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 94.62 billion yuan, 153.27 billion yuan, and 175.70 billion yuan respectively, with significant growth rates anticipated [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Xpeng Inc. with a target price of US$28.00 for ADR and HK$110.00 for H-shares, indicating an upside potential of 42.2% and 41.8% respectively from current prices [3][7]. Core Views - Xpeng's 1Q25 earnings exceeded expectations due to improved gross profit margin (GPM) and government subsidies, leading to an optimistic outlook for sales volume and profitability [1][7]. - The company is expected to achieve breakeven at the net level by 3Q25, supported by increased R&D investments and new model rollouts [1][7]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in sales volume and GPM for FY25, with a revised forecast of 460,000 units sold, reflecting a 20,000 unit increase from previous estimates [7][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25E are raised to RMB 86,862 million, representing a 112.6% year-over-year growth [2][9]. - Gross profit is expected to reach RMB 13,971 million in FY25E, with a gross margin of 16.1% [9][11]. - The net loss forecast for FY25E has been revised down to RMB 907.2 million, a significant improvement from previous estimates [9][11]. - For FY26E, net profit is projected at RMB 3,683 million, reflecting a positive trajectory in profitability [9][11]. Earnings Performance - In 1Q25, Xpeng reported a revenue of RMB 15,811 million, a 141.5% increase year-over-year, with a gross margin of 15.6% [8][11]. - The average selling price (ASP) for vehicles in 1Q25 was RMB 168,184, showing a decline of 44.0% compared to the previous year [8][11]. - The company’s net loss for 1Q25 was RMB 664 million, which was narrower than expected, indicating improving financial health [7][8]. Valuation Metrics - The report highlights a P/S ratio of 1.6 for FY25E, suggesting a favorable valuation compared to peers [2][9]. - The P/B ratio is projected to be 4.4 for FY25E, reflecting investor confidence in the company's growth potential [2][9]. - The report justifies a higher valuation based on Xpeng's leading AI capabilities and clearer profit growth path [7][9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a basic factor and valuation rating of ★★★☆☆ to the company [4] Core Insights - The company is the second-largest online insurance intermediary in mainland China, holding a market share of 2.9% in the overall life insurance intermediary market as of 2023 [2] - Online intermediaries dominate the life insurance intermediary market in mainland China, accounting for 89.1% of total premiums in 2023 [2] - The company collaborates with over 110 insurance companies, including more than 70% of life insurance companies in mainland China, generating revenue primarily from commissions based on the premiums of policies distributed through its platform [2][3] Financial Data Summary - Revenue for the fiscal year ending December 31: - 2022: 8.06 billion RMB - 2023: 16.34 billion RMB - 2024: 13.87 billion RMB - Shareholder profit (loss) for the same period: - 2022: 1.31 billion RMB - 2023: -3.56 billion RMB - 2024: -1.36 billion RMB [4]

三生制药（1530.HK）授权事件点评 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] 授权辉瑞重磅交易落地，看好 707 具有 BIC 潜力 2025 年 05 月 22 日 ➢ SSGJ-707 授权辉瑞，首付款高达 12.5 亿美元。5 月 20 日，三生制药 （01530.HK）宣布，公司及附属子公司沈阳三生、三生国健与辉瑞签署协议，将 向辉瑞独家授予公司自主研发的突破性 PD-1/VEGF 双特异性抗体 SSGJ-707 在 全球（不包括中国内地）的开发、生产、商业化权利。公司及沈阳三生将保留 SSGJ- 707 在中国内地的开发、生产、商业化权利，并基于届时商定的财务条款授予辉 瑞对 SSGJ-707 在中国内地开展商业化的选择权。根据协议，三生制药将获得 12.5 亿美元不可退还且不可抵扣的首付款，以及最高可达 48 亿美元的开发、监 管批准和销售里程碑付款。公司还将根据授权地区的产品销售额收取两位数百分 比的梯度销售分成。此外，辉瑞将于协议生效日认购三生制药价值 1 亿美元的普 通股股份。 ➢ 看好 SSGJ-707 具有 BIC 潜力，创新管线迎来收获期。SSGJ-707 是三生制 药基 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term disruptions due to industry cycles but is focusing on high-quality expansion and internal improvements. The first quarter revenue met expectations, with hotel operating revenue around 22.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, and total revenue of approximately 5.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2.2% [1][11] - The company aims to maintain a balance between expansion and internal strengthening, with a focus on high-quality growth despite uncertainties in the environment [5][19] Summary by Sections Domestic Hotels - In Q1, domestic revenue was 4.481 billion RMB, up 5.5% year-on-year, with direct-operated hotels down 9.4% and franchise hotels up 21.1%. The overall RevPAR decreased by 3.9%, with same-store RevPAR down 8.3% [2][16] - The company opened 694 new hotels and closed 155, with a total of 11,564 hotels by the end of Q1. The target for new openings in 2025 is approximately 2,300 hotels [2][16] Overseas Hotels - Q1 overseas revenue was 918 million RMB, down 11.3%, with direct-operated revenue down 11.2%. The company is transitioning 10 direct-operated hotels to a light-asset franchise model, which has impacted short-term performance [3][17] - The adjusted EBITDA for overseas operations was -77 million RMB, indicating increased losses primarily due to the transition to a light-asset model and restructuring efforts [3][17] Future Outlook - The company expects Q2 revenue growth of 1-5%, with domestic growth of 3-7% and franchise revenue growth of 18-22%. The management anticipates a narrowing decline in RevPAR in Q2, aiming for at least flat or growth for the year [4][18] - The company continues to focus on brand upgrades, member direct sales, and light-asset strategies, with a significant portion of its hotels in lower-tier cities [4][18] Financial Projections - The adjusted net profit estimates for 2025-2027 are 4.66 billion, 5.37 billion, and 6.13 billion RMB, respectively, with a CAGR of 18%. The dynamic PE ratios are projected to be 17, 15, and 13 times for the respective years [5][19][6]

➢ 投资建议：公司核心管线 BD 落地带来业绩弹性，我们上调公司盈利预测， 预计公司 2025-2027 年营业总收入分别为 182.44/127.52/147.31 亿元；归母 净利润分别为 85.75/34.13/41.02 亿元，对应 EPS 分别为 3.57/1.42/1.71 元， 维持"推荐"评级。 ➢ 风险提示：集采风险，市场竞争加剧风险，政策变化风险，产品研发不及预 期风险，仿制药风险。 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] 三生制药（1530.HK）授权事件点评 授权辉瑞重磅交易落地，看好 707 具有 BIC 潜力 2025 年 05 月 22 日 ➢ SSGJ-707 授权辉瑞，首付款高达 12.5 亿美元。5 月 20 日，三生制药 （01530.HK）宣布，公司及附属子公司沈阳三生、三生国健与辉瑞签署协议，将 向辉瑞独家授予公司自主研发的突破性 PD-1/VEGF 双特异性抗体 SSGJ-707 在 全球（不包括中国内地）的开发、生产、商业化权利。公司及沈阳三生将保留 SSGJ- 707 在中国内地的开发、生产、商业化权利，并基于届时商定的财务条款授予辉 瑞对 SSGJ ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term disruptions due to industry cycles but is focusing on high-quality expansion and internal improvements. The first quarter revenue met expectations, with hotel operating revenue around 22.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, and total revenue of approximately 5.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2.2% [1][11] - The company aims for a revenue growth of 1-5% in Q2, with domestic segments expected to grow by 3-7% and franchise revenue by 18-22%. The management anticipates a narrowing decline in RevPAR in Q2, with a goal of at least maintaining or growing throughout the year [4][18] Summary by Sections Domestic Hotels - In Q1, domestic revenue was 4.481 billion RMB, up 5.5% year-on-year. Direct-operated hotels saw a decline of 9.4%, while franchise revenue increased by 21.1%. The overall RevPAR decreased by 3.9%, with same-store RevPAR down by 8.3% [2][16] - The company opened 694 new hotels and closed 155, with a total of 11,564 hotels by the end of Q1. The company plans to open approximately 2,300 new hotels throughout the year [2][16] Overseas Hotels - Q1 overseas revenue was 918 million RMB, down 11.3%. The decline was primarily due to the transition of 10 direct-operated hotels to a light-asset franchise model and the closure of one direct-operated hotel. The adjusted EBITDA for Q1 was -77 million RMB, indicating an increase in losses due to restructuring [3][17] Financial Forecasts - The company maintains adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 4.66 billion, 5.37 billion, and 6.13 billion RMB, respectively, with a three-year CAGR of 18%. The dynamic PE ratios are projected to be 17, 15, and 13 times for the respective years [5][19] - The company has a shareholder return plan of 2 billion USD over three years, which adds marginal appeal to the investment [5][19]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 专业连锁Ⅱ 受益主动库存清理，期末存货 60.0 亿，同比-4.5%，存货周转天数 135 天，同比下降 1 天；经营性现金流 37.6 亿，同比+20.0%，增长与应收账款及存货规模下降有关。末期+ 特别分红 8.68 亿，结合中期分红，全年现金分红比例 135%，显著超预期。 ❑ 合作品牌矩阵竞争力仍然强劲，期待 Nike 在新财年的改善： 作为运动零售商龙头，滔搏是 Nike、Adidas 在中国最重视的合作伙伴之一，Nike 品牌在 10 月更换全球 CEO、原大中华区 CEO 亦升任大中华区董事长兼 CEO&ACG 品牌全球 CEO，体现 Nike 对中国&户外市场的重视，期待新财年新管理团队带来的积极变化。 除了两大主要合作品牌外，滔搏不断丰富包括综合运动、专业运动、休闲运动、IP 文化 类的品牌合作矩阵，在户外、越野跑、登山、IP 文化领域持续拓展版图， 25 年 5 月新增 高端户外品牌 Norrøna 及高端跑步服饰品牌 SPAR 中国独家代理合作，其中： ❑ 发布 25/2/28 财年年报：震荡程度符合预期、门店调整到位 25/2/28 财年公司全年收入 2 ...