Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and profit for 2025, with revenue reaching 27.303 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of approximately 221%, and net profit of 4.868 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 231% [2] - The company anticipates strong performance in Q1 2026, projecting sales revenue of approximately 19-20 billion RMB and net profit of around 3.6-3.8 billion RMB [2] - The brand's market influence and product innovation are driving substantial revenue and profit growth, with the company achieving an annual sales performance of nearly 1 billion RMB per store in 2025 [3] - The company has expanded its loyal customer base to approximately 610,000 members, reflecting a growing overlap with high-end luxury brand consumers [3] - The company has introduced over 2,300 original designs and holds numerous patents, supporting continuous product innovation [3] Financial Performance - In 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 37.6%, which is expected to recover to over 40% following price adjustments due to rising gold prices [5] - The company’s net profit margin improved to 18.4%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [5] - Revenue from gold products in 2025 was 27.3 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 221% [4] - The company plans to achieve revenues of 37.294 billion RMB, 45.471 billion RMB, and 53.776 billion RMB for 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 41.50 RMB, 51.01 RMB, and 60.55 RMB [6][8] Market Position and Strategy - The company is strategically positioned in the high-end gold jewelry market, integrating traditional Chinese culture with modern design concepts [6] - The company has opened 10 new stores and optimized 9 existing stores in 2025, contributing to revenue growth [4] - The company has successfully penetrated the international market with its expansion into Singapore [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's performance for the fiscal year 2025 met expectations, with total revenue reaching 33.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.2%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 5.887 billion yuan, up 32.7% [8] - Store expansion has driven revenue growth, with a stable profit margin. The gross profit margin for the year was 31.14%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in revenue structure and rising raw material costs [8] - The company aims to enhance store operational quality in 2026 while continuing to expand its presence in the domestic market and overseas [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 36.33 billion yuan, 40.52 billion yuan, and 45.44 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 6.25 billion yuan, 7.11 billion yuan, and 8.02 billion yuan [1][9] - The projected P/E ratios for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 18, 16, and 14, respectively [8][9] - The company plans to focus on improving product quality and operational efficiency through digitalization and smart technologies [8]

上 市 公 司 房地产 2026 年 03 月 25 日 中国金茂 (00817) ——销售快增，拿地积极，业绩见底 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2026 年 03 月 24 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 1.34 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8499.53 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 1.82/0.99 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 181.07 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 13,512.47 | | 汇率（港币/人民币） | 0.8802 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -18% 32% 82% HSCEI 中国金茂 资料来源：Bloomberg 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 曹曼 A0230520120003 caoman@swsresearch.com 联系人 曹曼 A0230520120003 caoman@swsresearch.com 投资要点： 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Nongfu Spring (09633.HK) with a target price of HKD 57 [2][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of HKD 52.553 billion for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.5%, and a net profit of HKD 15.868 billion, up 30.9% year-on-year [2][7]. - The second half of 2025 saw a significant recovery in packaging water and an unexpected high growth in tea beverages, with total revenue reaching HKD 26.931 billion, a 30% increase year-on-year [7]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of HKD 0.99 per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 70.2% [2]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2025A Revenue: HKD 52.553 billion - 2026E Revenue: HKD 60.242 billion (14.6% growth) - 2027E Revenue: HKD 67.658 billion (12.3% growth) - 2028E Revenue: HKD 74.896 billion (10.7% growth) - 2025A Net Profit: HKD 15.868 billion - 2026E Net Profit: HKD 17.636 billion (11.1% growth) - 2027E Net Profit: HKD 19.856 billion (12.6% growth) - 2028E Net Profit: HKD 22.320 billion (12.4% growth) [2][11]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2025A EPS: HKD 1.41 - 2026E EPS: HKD 1.57 - 2027E EPS: HKD 1.77 - 2028E EPS: HKD 1.98 [2][11]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - 2026E Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio: 24 - 2027E P/E ratio: 21 - 2028E P/E ratio: 19 - 2026E Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio: 9.6 - 2027E P/B ratio: 8.5 - 2028E P/B ratio: 7.5 [2][11]. Market Performance - The company’s stock price as of March 25, 2026, was HKD 42.44, with a total market capitalization of HKD 477.3 billion [3][7]. - The stock has shown a significant performance compared to the Hang Seng Index, with a 55% increase over the past year [5].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Strong Buy" based on expected revenue growth and strategic developments [5][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.76 billion RMB for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 58%, driven by significant R&D investments [2][8]. - Adjusted operating loss for 2025 was 2.37 billion RMB, with a year-on-year loss increase of 880 million RMB [2]. - The company is positioned as a leading provider in the mid-to-high-end intelligent driving solutions market, with a market share of 14.4% in the NOA segment [8]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2026-2028 are 5.99 billion RMB, 9.32 billion RMB, and 13.87 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 59.3%, 55.6%, and 48.9% respectively [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to improve from a loss of 3.51 billion RMB in 2026 to a profit of 628 million RMB in 2028 [4]. - The gross margin for 2025 was 64.5%, a decrease of 13 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to product mix changes and pricing strategies [8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has successfully launched its HSD solution, with over 22,000 units delivered in 2025, significantly enhancing its market presence [8]. - The penetration rate of NOA in the Chinese passenger car market increased from 21.6% to 42.6% in 2025, particularly in the sub-200,000 RMB market segment [8]. - The company plans to release new products, including an integrated smart vehicle chip and operating system, expected to enhance user experience and reduce costs [8]. International Expansion - The company has established partnerships with 11 OEMs for over 40 export models, aiming to strengthen its international market position [8]. - It has also secured model designations from 9 joint venture brands in China, with over 60% coming from non-Volkswagen Group models [8]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued revenue growth driven by increased R&D investments and the launch of new products, with a target market capitalization of 119.7 billion to 149.7 billion RMB [8]. - The target price is set between 9.27 and 11.59 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 30% to 63% from the current price of 7.12 HKD [5][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 6.5 billion RMB in Q4 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 8.3%, exceeding the guidance of 2% to 6% [7] - The adjusted net profit for Q4 2025 was 1.3 billion RMB, showing a year-over-year increase of 304.5% [7] - The company is focusing on a light-asset management franchise model, which has led to an improvement in gross margin, reaching 39.9% in Q4 2025, up by 9.5 percentage points year-over-year [7] - The company plans to open 2,200 to 2,300 new hotels in 2026 while closing 600 to 700 hotels [7] - The company aims for a revenue growth rate of 2% to 6% for 2026, with a target of 12% to 16% growth in franchise business revenue [7] Financial Performance - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 23.891 billion RMB in 2024, 25.307 billion RMB in 2025, 26.787 billion RMB in 2026, 28.395 billion RMB in 2027, and 29.956 billion RMB in 2028, with growth rates of 9.18%, 5.93%, 5.85%, 6.00%, and 5.50% respectively [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 3.048 billion RMB in 2024, 5.080 billion RMB in 2025, 5.160 billion RMB in 2026, 5.887 billion RMB in 2027, and 6.628 billion RMB in 2028, with growth rates of -25.39%, 66.67%, 1.57%, 14.10%, and 12.59% respectively [6] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.98 RMB in 2024, 1.65 RMB in 2025, 1.66 RMB in 2026, 1.90 RMB in 2027, and 2.13 RMB in 2028 [6] Market Performance - The company’s stock price closed at 39.80 HKD, with a total circulating share capital of 3.105 billion shares [2] - The company’s performance over the last 12 months shows a decline of 17%, compared to the Hang Seng Index [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [12]. Core Insights - In 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 33.56 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 35.2%, and a net profit of 5.89 billion RMB, up 32.7% [2]. - The company is rapidly expanding its store network, with a total of 59,823 stores globally by the end of 2025, representing a 28.7% increase year-on-year. The number of stores in mainland China reached 55,356, up 33.1% [2]. - The company is focusing on optimizing overseas stores, with a reduction of 428 stores in markets like Indonesia and Vietnam, while entering new markets such as Kazakhstan and the USA [2]. - The company has a strong presence in lower-tier cities, with 58.0% of its stores located in third-tier cities and below, indicating a solid advantage in the lower market segments [3]. - The company has implemented a differentiated store opening strategy, targeting transportation hubs, tourist attractions, and industrial parks, which allows for capturing premium locations [3]. - The sales of products and equipment have seen significant growth, with product sales reaching 31.44 billion RMB, up 34.1%, and equipment sales increasing by 75.4% [4]. - The company has a stable gross margin of 31.1%, with effective cost control reflected in stable expense ratios [4]. - The forecast for net profit in 2026, 2027, and 2028 is 7.1 billion RMB, 8.3 billion RMB, and 9.2 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17, 14, and 13 times [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of USD 567 million in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.9%, and a net profit of approximately USD 121 million, up 27.4% year-on-year [4] - The company's strong performance is supported by its localized manufacturing capabilities and deep market insights developed over 29 years in the African market, combined with global procurement and long-term price-locking supply chain advantages [4] - The company is expanding its flat distribution model, with only 30% of sales currently under direct control, indicating significant room for improvement in channel penetration and digital operations [4] - The company is expected to continue its growth momentum, particularly in high-margin sanitary napkin and rapidly growing wet wipes categories, with substantial expansion opportunities in low-penetration markets [4] Financial Performance - In 2025, the revenue contribution from baby care products was 78.6%, with a year-on-year growth of 23.1% and a gross margin of 35.5% [5] - The sanitary napkin category's revenue share increased from 13.5% in 2022 to 17.5% in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 27.9% [5] - The wet wipes category saw revenue and volume growth of 53.8% and 52.8% respectively, although its gross margin decreased by 8.3% to 43.7% [5] - East Africa remains the largest market, accounting for 45.1% of revenue with a year-on-year growth of 23.9% [5] Operational Efficiency - The company has demonstrated effective cost control, with a sales expense ratio of 3.5% and a management expense ratio of 6.9% [6] - The average accounts receivable turnover days are only 5 days, showcasing industry-leading cash collection capabilities [6] - Total assets increased from USD 254 million in 2024 to USD 763 million in 2025, with non-current assets rising from USD 78 million to USD 133 million [6] Financial Projections - Projected revenues for 2026 and 2027 are USD 658 million and USD 760 million respectively, with expected net profits of USD 142 million and USD 165 million [7] - The company’s projected P/E ratios for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 19.0, 16.4, and 14.1 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 52.553 billion RMB for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.51%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 15.868 billion RMB, up 30.89% year-on-year [1] - The packaging water segment showed steady growth with a revenue of 18.709 billion RMB in 2025, a 17.28% increase year-on-year, and a profit of 7.001 billion RMB, reflecting a 40.86% increase year-on-year [1] - The tea beverage segment experienced rapid growth, achieving a revenue of 21.596 billion RMB in 2025, up 28.97% year-on-year, with a profit of 10.374 billion RMB, a 37.18% increase year-on-year [1] - The company is expected to continue its long-term growth strategy, with projected net profits of 18.3 billion RMB, 21.1 billion RMB, and 24 billion RMB for 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively, indicating growth rates of 15.3% for 2026 and 2027, and 13.6% for 2028 [3] Financial Performance Summary - In 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 60.53%, an increase of 2.44 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 30.19%, up 1.93 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The revenue from functional beverages, juice, and other drinks in 2025 was 5.762 billion RMB, 5.176 billion RMB, and 1.309 billion RMB respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.83%, 26.72%, and 10.77% [2] - The company’s total revenue is projected to reach 59.917 billion RMB in 2026, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14% [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company experienced a slight revenue decline of 1.7% year-on-year to 37.985 billion RMB in 2025, but benefited from a high-end strategy that improved gross margin by 0.5 percentage points to 43.1% [3] - The EBITDA decreased by 13.7% to 7.701 billion RMB, while the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 28.9% to 3.371 billion RMB. Excluding special items, EBITDA increased by 9.9% to 9.879 billion RMB, and net profit rose by 19.6% to 5.724 billion RMB [3] - Beer sales showed steady growth, with revenue from beer reaching 36.490 billion RMB, remaining stable year-on-year. Beer sales volume increased by 1.4% to 11.03 million kiloliters, with high-end beer products driving growth [3] - The company plans to optimize its beer production capacity, having stopped operations at four breweries and opened a new smart craft brewery in Shenzhen [3] - The white liquor segment faced significant challenges, with revenue declining by 30.4% to 1.496 billion RMB in 2025, leading to a goodwill impairment charge of 2.877 billion RMB [3] - The company expects a total dividend of 1.021 RMB per share in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 34.3% [3] Financial Summary - For the fiscal year 2025, the company reported total revenue of 37.99 billion RMB, with projected revenues of 39.21 billion RMB, 40.86 billion RMB, and 42.58 billion RMB for 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 was 3.37 billion RMB, with forecasts of 5.92 billion RMB, 6.35 billion RMB, and 6.72 billion RMB for the following three years [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 was 1.04 RMB, expected to rise to 1.82 RMB, 1.96 RMB, and 2.07 RMB in the subsequent years [4]