Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.384 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 53.6%, and a net profit of 2.347 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [7] - The J6 series has been fully launched, with production and delivery expected to drive long-term growth, supported by partnerships with over 20 OEM brands [7] - The company achieved a strong growth in delivery volume and an increase in gross margin, with product solution revenue rising by 31.2% year-on-year [7] - High R&D investment is strengthening the company's technological advantages, with R&D expenses increasing by 33.4% to 3.16 billion yuan [7] - The company expects to achieve cumulative shipments of over 10 million units for the J series by 2025 [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is adjusted to 3.66 billion yuan, with a projected revenue of 5.364 billion yuan for 2026 and 8.047 billion yuan for 2027 [7] - The company’s net profit for 2025 is expected to be a loss of 2.450 billion yuan, improving to a profit of 338 million yuan by 2027 [1] - The P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 26.1, 17.8, and 11.9 respectively [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4]. Core Views - The company's revenue growth of 107% and net profit growth of 189% are driven by overseas expansion and category diversification. For 2024, the projected revenue is 13.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 106.9%, with net profit expected to reach 3.13 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 188.8% [9][4]. - The company's IP matrix is continuously optimized, with 13 IPs generating over 100 million yuan in revenue. Notably, mature IPs like MOLLY and THE MONSTERS have shown strong growth, with revenue increases of 105.2% and 726.6% respectively [2][14]. - The plush toy category has performed exceptionally well, with revenue from plush toys growing by 1289% year-on-year. The company is also preparing short video content to enrich its IP offerings and attract new users [3][15]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 5.02 billion, 6.30 billion, and 7.88 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 60.7%, 25.3%, and 25.2% [4][19]. - The projected diluted EPS for the same period is 3.74, 4.69, and 5.87 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 35, 28, and 22 times [4][19]. Financial Metrics - The company's gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 66.8%, an increase of 5.5 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a higher proportion of overseas sales and supply chain optimization [12][4]. - The company plans to open 100 new stores in 2025, with existing overseas stores totaling 130. Revenue from overseas markets has seen significant growth, with year-on-year increases of 619% in Southeast Asia and 310% in Europe and Oceania [17][4].

申洲国际 02313.HK 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 业绩超预期，期待 2025 年表现 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据业绩公告，我们调整盈利预测，预计公司 2024-2026 年每股收益分别为 4.15、 4.46 和 5.1 元（原 3.99、4.49 和 5.04 元），DCF 目标估值 93.18 港币（1 人民币 =1.07 港币），维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：经济恢复不及预期，人民币汇率波动、中美贸易摩擦对产业的扰动等 公司主要财务信息 | | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 27,781 | 24,970 | 28,663 | 32,205 | 36,134 | | 同比增长 (%) | 16.5% | -10.1% | 14.8% | 12.4% | 12.2% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 5,262 | 4,996 | 7,164 | 7,706 | 8,825 | | 同比增长 (%) | 37.6% | -5.1% | 43. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 25 HKD [5][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a main revenue of 886.75 billion CNY for 2024, a decrease of 10.09% year-on-year, while operating profit increased by 17.6% to 72.57 billion CNY. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders plummeted by 97.83% to 1.05 billion CNY [2][5]. - The company is focusing on quality and returns, aiming for operational improvements despite external pressures. The operating profit margin (OPM) has exceeded expectations, with a significant increase in profitability across core business segments [4][5]. Financial Performance Summary - For the second half of 2024, the company achieved a main revenue of 440.04 billion CNY, down 7.37% year-on-year, but operating profit rose by 42.88% to 41.37 billion CNY. The net profit attributable to shareholders was -23.41 billion CNY, a decline of 230.89% [2][5]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.509 CNY per share, totaling 19.942 billion CNY, with a dividend payout ratio of 45% after excluding impairment losses [2][5]. Business Segment Performance - Liquid milk revenue for 2024 was 730.7 billion CNY, down 11% year-on-year, while ice cream and cheese segments showed positive growth in the second half of 2024 [5][6]. - The company has successfully controlled inventory levels and maintained operational health, leading to improved profitability in low-temperature products and fresh milk [5][6]. Future Outlook - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 1.29 CNY, 1.48 CNY, and 1.65 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 14, 12, and 11 [9][5]. - The company is expected to recover from the current challenges, with a target PE of 18 for 2025, aligning with the target price of 25 HKD [8][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Yum China Holdings [5][11]. Core Insights - Yum China Holdings reported a revenue of 11.30 billion USD for 2024, reflecting a 3% year-over-year growth, with an adjusted net profit of 911 million USD, up 8% year-over-year [2][11]. - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.60 billion USD, a 4% increase year-over-year, and an adjusted net profit of 115 million USD, marking an 11% growth year-over-year [2][11]. - The overall system sales for KFC and Pizza Hut grew by 5% and 3% respectively, while same-store sales declined by 1% and 2% [2][11]. - The company plans to add approximately 1,600 to 1,800 new stores in 2025, with capital expenditures estimated between 700 to 800 million USD [3][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, total revenue reached 11.30 billion USD, with a 3% year-over-year increase, and net profit was 911 million USD, up 8% year-over-year [6][11]. - Q4 2024 revenue was 2.60 billion USD, a 4% increase year-over-year, with an adjusted net profit of 115 million USD, reflecting an 11% growth year-over-year [2][11]. - The diluted EPS for Q4 2024 was 0.30 USD, a 30% increase year-over-year [2][11]. Restaurant Expansion and Performance - By the end of 2024, the total number of restaurants reached 16,395, with a net increase of 1,751 restaurants, representing a 12% annual growth [3][11]. - KFC had 11,648 stores, with a net increase of 1,352 stores (+13%), while Pizza Hut had 3,724 stores, with a net increase of 412 stores (+12%) [3][11]. - In Q4 2024, restaurant income was 2.43 billion USD, with a profit margin of 12.3%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points year-over-year [3][11]. Digital and Delivery Growth - By the end of Q4 2024, KFC and Pizza Hut had over 525 million members, with member sales accounting for 65% of total sales [4][11]. - Digital orders for 2024 reached 9.60 billion USD, representing 90% of restaurant income, while delivery sales grew by 14% year-over-year, making up 39% of restaurant income [4][11]. Shareholder Returns - The company returned 1.50 billion USD to shareholders in 2024, which is about 8.5% of its market capitalization [4][11]. - The cash dividend per share is set to increase by 50% to 0.24 USD [4][11]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is 950 million USD, 1.01 billion USD, and 1.07 billion USD, with growth rates of 4.3%, 5.9%, and 6.6% respectively [5][11]. - The target price is set at 431.8 HKD per share based on a 22x PE ratio for 2025 [5][11].

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 03 月 27 日 巨子生物（02367.HK） 公司发布 2024 年业绩，全年收入+57%、归母净利润+42%。明星单品&新品矩 阵&全域营销驱动可复美品牌持续高增，直销渠道在线上精细化运营强化、精准 破圈&线下渠道持续拓展驱动下同样快速增长。但 2024 年毛利率受新品扩充等 影响略有下降，且销售费用率提升较快致净利率下滑。展望 2025 年，公司明星 单品地位稳固、新品扩张放量，渠道稳步拓展，同时肌肤焕活产品储备丰富， 增长驱动力较强。预计 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为 25.11 亿元、29.11 亿 元、32.66 亿元，同比增速分别为 22%、16%、12%，3 月 27 日收盘价对应 25PE25.7X，维持"强烈推荐"评级。 ❑ 公司发布 2024 年业绩，全年收入利润高速增长。2024 年实现营收 55.4 亿元， 同比+57.2%；归母净利润 20.6 亿元，同比+42.1%；经调整净利润 21.5 亿元， 同比+46.5%。公司拟派发末期股息 0.6021 元/股，特别股息 0.5921 元/股。 ❑ 可复美品牌&直销渠道依旧保持 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the company, indicating a strong growth potential driven by its product mix and market strategies [1][3][6] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 2.241 billion, a year-on-year increase of 155.6%, and an adjusted annual profit of RMB 585 million, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 702.1% [1] - The sales revenue from building block toys decreased by 62.9%, indicating a strategic shift towards building character toys, which generated sales of RMB 2.201 billion [1][3] - The company has invested RMB 192 million in R&D, accounting for 8.6% of total revenue, highlighting its commitment to product innovation [1] - The gross profit margin improved to 52.6%, showcasing enhanced supply chain efficiency and product structure optimization [3] Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - The revenue growth is primarily attributed to product mix optimization and channel penetration strategies, effectively reaching consumers across various demographics and price ranges [3][4] - The company plans to introduce 800-1000 new SKUs and over 300 new products in 2025, further enhancing its product offerings [4] Market Expansion - The company is expanding its IP matrix, currently holding nearly 50 licensed IPs and planning to add over 25 more, including popular franchises like Star Wars and Pokémon [4][5] - Domestic market penetration is supported by over 450 distributors, while international expansion is achieved through brand partnerships and localization strategies, with overseas sales revenue increasing by 518.2% [1][4] Future Growth Drivers - The company is focusing on developing female-oriented products to address specific market needs, including ease of assembly and aesthetic appeal [5] - Forecasts indicate net profits of RMB 941 million, RMB 1.381 billion, and RMB 1.991 billion for 2025-2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 30x, 20x, and 14x, reflecting strong market confidence in sustained profitability [6]

2025 年 3 月 27 日 公司研究 潮玩景气度延续高增，加速拓展海外市场 分海内外渠道来看：1、中国内地实现收入 79.7 亿元，同比增长 52%，占 比总收入比重为 61%：1）线下渠道收入 45.3 亿元，同比增长 40.8%。其 中，零售店收入 38.3 亿元，同比增长 43.9%；机器人商店收入 7.0 亿元， 同比增长 26.4%。截至 24 年底，中国内地零售店合计开设 401 家，净增 38 家；机器人商店合计开设 2300 间，净增 110 间。2）线上渠道收入 27.0 亿元，同比增长 76.9%。其中，泡泡玛特抽盒机收入 11.1 亿元，同比增 长 52.7%；天猫旗舰店收入 6.3 亿元，同比增长 95.0%；抖音平台收入 6.0亿元，同比增长112.2%。3）批发及其他收入7.5亿元，同比增长50.7%， 主要由于泡泡玛特城市乐园的收入增加。2、港澳台及海外实现收入 50.7 亿元，同比增长 375%，占比总收入比重为 39%：1）线下渠道收入 30.7 亿元，同比增长 379.6%。其中，零售店销售收入 29.4 亿元，同比增长 404.0%；机器人商店收入 1.3 亿元，同比 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking it as the first recommendation [9]. Core Insights - The company's overall performance in 2024 is stable, with slight impacts on profitability due to promotional activities and rising raw material costs. Revenue and net profit for 2024 are projected at 42.896 billion and 12.123 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 0.54% and 0.36% [5]. - The bottled water segment faces short-term pressure but is gradually recovering market share, while tea beverages are experiencing significant growth. Revenue from bottled water in 2024 is expected to be 15.952 billion yuan, down 21.27% year-on-year, while tea beverage revenue is projected at 16.745 billion yuan, up 32.27% year-on-year [6]. - Cost improvements are anticipated, with the company starting to produce its own tea to reduce reliance on third-party suppliers. The company expects a decrease in PET prices in 2025, which will aid in cost management [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's revenue and net profit for 2024 are 42.896 billion and 12.123 billion yuan, with growth rates of 0.5% and 0.4% respectively. For 2025, revenue is projected to increase to 48.617 billion yuan, representing a growth rate of 13.3% [11]. - The gross margin for 2024 is 58.08%, slightly down from the previous year, while the net profit margin is 28.26% [5]. Market Segments - Bottled water sales are under pressure, with a revenue forecast of 15.952 billion yuan for 2024, down 21.27% year-on-year. However, the company maintains the leading market share in this segment [6]. - Tea beverage revenue is expected to reach 16.745 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 32.27%, driven by strong performance in both sugar-free and sugar-added tea products [6]. Cost and Capacity Management - The company is implementing strategies to improve cost efficiency, including in-house tea production and targeted procurement of raw materials. The production capacity utilization rate is expected to decline in 2024 due to lower bottled water sales [8]. - Capital expenditures are projected to remain at current levels, focusing on new plant construction and equipment investments [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][8]. Core Views - The company's 4Q24 performance met expectations, with stable dividend amounts. The report anticipates growth potential for 2025 [3][8]. - The company reported a revenue of 21.372 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.9 billion RMB, a decrease of 24.2% year-on-year [8]. - The average net electricity price for 2024 was 0.43 RMB per kWh, showing a slight decrease of 0.01 RMB per kWh compared to the previous year [8]. Financial Summary - Revenue and profit figures for the company from 2021 to 2027 are as follows: - Revenue: 15,985 million RMB (2021), 18,561 million RMB (2022), 20,282 million RMB (2023), 21,372 million RMB (2024), with estimates of 26,662 million RMB (2025E), 29,684 million RMB (2026E), and 30,341 million RMB (2027E) [7]. - Net Profit: 2,712 million RMB (2021), 2,819 million RMB (2022), 2,734 million RMB (2023), 1,900 million RMB (2024), with estimates of 3,150 million RMB (2025E), 3,429 million RMB (2026E), and 3,656 million RMB (2027E) [7]. - The company’s PE ratio for 2024 is 8.96, with projections of 5.41 (2025E), 4.97 (2026E), and 4.66 (2027E) [7]. Operational Insights - The company’s wind power capacity reached 6.6 GW by the end of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%. In February 2025, the electricity generation was 1.42 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 35.2% [8]. - The report suggests that the company’s performance in 2025 is expected to improve due to the resolution of weather-related disruptions and the ramp-up of LNG terminal capacity [8].