Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xiaomi Group is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 earnings that exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching 111.3 billion yuan (up 47.4% year-on-year) and adjusted net profit of 10.7 billion yuan (up 64.5% year-on-year) [4] - The automotive business's losses have narrowed, with a single-quarter operating loss reduced to 500 million yuan, and the SU7 series deliveries reached 75,869 units [6] - The smartphone high-end strategy is progressing, with a market share in mainland China returning to first place, and ASP for smartphones increased to 1,211 yuan (up 5.8% year-on-year) [6] - The smart home appliance business is growing rapidly, with IoT and consumer goods revenue reaching 32.3 billion yuan (up 58.7% year-on-year) and a gross margin of 25.2% [7] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 41.8 billion, 53.4 billion, and 66.6 billion yuan respectively, reflecting strong growth across multiple business segments [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 111.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 47.4% and adjusted net profit of 10.7 billion yuan, up 64.5% year-on-year [4] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 502.4 billion, 649.6 billion, and 819.2 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 37.3%, 29.3%, and 26.1% [5][11] Automotive Business - The automotive segment generated revenue of 18.1 billion yuan in Q1, with a gross margin of 23.2% and a narrowed operating loss of 500 million yuan [6] - The upcoming YU7 model is expected to be launched in July, featuring significant upgrades compared to the SU7 [6] Smartphone and IoT Business - Smartphone shipments reached 41.8 million units with revenue of 50.6 billion yuan in Q1, and the ASP increased to 1,211 yuan [6] - The IoT and consumer goods segment saw a revenue increase of 58.7% year-on-year, driven by strong sales in smart appliances [7] Profitability and Valuation - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve, with net profit margins expected to reach 8.3% by 2025 [11] - The P/E ratio is forecasted to decrease from 52.1 in 2024 to 29.5 in 2025, indicating improved valuation metrics [11]

证券研究报告 小米集团-W (1810 HK) 维持目标价 71.2 港币，维持"买入"评级 港股通 IoT/汽车业务毛利率超预期 | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 5 月 | 29 日│中国香港 | 消费电子 | 小米 1Q25 收入同比增长 47%至 1113 亿元，创历史新高，调整后营业利润 （毛利-三项费用）同比增长 114%至 99.6 亿元。1Q25 IoT 和汽车业务毛利 率表现出色，手机 ASP 创历史新高，高端化持续推进。5/22，公司正式发布 玄戒 O1/T1 芯片，我们认为自研芯片是品牌厂商构建生态的重要一步，看好 小米高端手机市场份额持续扩大。基于 SOTP 估值法，维持公司目标价 71.2 港币，包含手机 xAIoT（44.9 港币），汽车（26.3 港币）。维持"买入"。 亮点#1：IoT 毛利率超预期，收入创历史新高 1Q25，IoT 与生活消费品业务收入和毛利率再创历史新高，收入同比+58.7% 达到 323 亿元，毛利率达到 25.2%（YoY: +5.4pct；QoQ: +4.7pct）。原因或 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price adjusted from HKD 50.00 to HKD 46.00, indicating a potential upside of 27.6% from the current price of HKD 36.05 [4][2]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 performance was impacted by seasonal factors and increased R&D expenditures, particularly in AI and new game categories. Game revenue saw a quarter-on-quarter decline primarily due to seasonal decreases in monetization updates for "Jian Wang 3," while WPS revenue also fell due to procurement process changes. New game launches are expected to stabilize revenue in the second half of the year [2][8]. - Adjustments to profit forecasts for 2025-2027 were made, reflecting changes in the valuation contribution from Kingsoft Cloud due to its market value decline [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Projections**: - 2025E: RMB 11,184 million (down 4% from previous forecast) - 2026E: RMB 12,189 million (down 5%) - 2027E: RMB 13,486 million (down 5%) [3][12]. - **Game and Other Revenue**: - 2025E: RMB 5,327 million (down 4%) - 2026E: RMB 5,354 million (down 8%) - 2027E: RMB 5,484 million (down 8%) [3]. - **WPS Revenue**: - 2025E: RMB 5,857 million (down 3%) - 2026E: RMB 6,836 million (down 3%) - 2027E: RMB 8,002 million (down 3%) [3]. - **Gross Profit**: - 2025E: RMB 9,281 million (up 6%) - 2026E: RMB 10,098 million (up 3%) - 2027E: RMB 11,204 million (up 14%) [3]. - **Adjusted Net Profit**: - 2025E: RMB 2,724 million (down 1%) - 2026E: RMB 2,957 million (down 4%) - 2027E: RMB 3,461 million (down 3%) [3]. Market Data - The company's market capitalization is approximately HKD 50,233.87 million, with a 52-week high of HKD 46.90 and a low of HKD 20.10. The average daily trading volume is 13.72 million shares, and the year-to-date change is +7.13% [6][12].

Group 1 - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [1] - The core viewpoint of the report highlights a strong rebound in the domestic tea beverage industry, with an upward revision of the target price from 539 HKD to 608 HKD [1] - The report reflects a higher forecast for same-store sales growth due to increased competition from the latest delivery platforms and a rapid pace of new store openings [1] Group 2 - The earnings per share forecast has been adjusted upward by 5-6% [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Anta Sports [1] Core Insights - Anta Sports has continued the stable trend observed in the first quarter of this year, supported by healthy inventory levels and optimistic sales and performance [1] - The target price for Anta Sports has been raised from HKD 140 to HKD 142 [1] - The retail sales guidance for Anta Sports remains unchanged, with expected growth rates of high single digits for Anta, mid single digits for Fila, and over 30% for other brands [1] - The operating profit margin guidance is maintained, with expected margins of 20% to 25% for Anta, approximately 25% for Fila, and 25% to 30% for other brands [1] - Due to increased investment in MaiaActive and the planned acquisition of JackWolfskin to be completed in June, the earnings forecast for Anta Sports for 2025 to 2027 has been raised by 1% to 2% [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group-W (01810) and raises the target price to HKD 62 [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Xiaomi's 1Q25 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue and adjusted net profit reaching RMB 1,113 billion and RMB 107 billion, respectively, surpassing market forecasts [1]. - AIoT revenue grew significantly by 59% year-on-year to RMB 323 billion, with gross margin increasing from 20.5% in 4Q24 to 25.2% [1]. - The gross margin for the automotive segment improved to 23.2%, driven by scale effects from the SU7 model, high management efficiency, and growth in equity income [1]. Summary by Sections - **Revenue Forecasts**: The revenue forecasts for Xiaomi for 2025 and 2026 have been raised to RMB 5,030 billion and RMB 6,159 billion, respectively, with adjusted EPS estimates increased to RMB 1.87 and RMB 2.14 [1]. - **Automotive Business**: The average selling price (ASP) for Xiaomi's automotive segment has been adjusted down to RMB 254,000 for 2026, with a focus on the performance of the YU7 model post-launch and the ramp-up of production capacity [2]. - **Smartphone Market Position**: Xiaomi regained the top position in China's smartphone shipments in 1Q25, with a high-end market share of 25%, despite a global smartphone market growth forecast of less than 1% for 2025 [2]. - **AI Investment**: Management plans to increase investment in AI, expecting it to account for one-quarter of total R&D spending, with an annual R&D budget of RMB 30 billion [2]. - **Home Appliance Growth**: The report is optimistic about Xiaomi's long-term expansion in the home appliance sector, with significant growth in sales and ASP for major appliances, supported by the construction of a smart factory in Wuhan [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Power (02380) and raises the target price by 7.4% from HKD 3.51 to HKD 3.77 [1] Core Insights - The report indicates an increase in the earnings forecast for 2025 and 2026 by 1% and 1.4% respectively, highlighting an attractive dividend yield of 6% and 7% for these years [1] - Total power generation from January to April showed a slight year-on-year increase of 0.3%, with wind and solar power generation rising significantly by 32.1% and 13.6% respectively [1] - The report notes a decline of over 7% in domestic coal prices (both at ports and inland) compared to the end of March this year, suggesting that the company's thermal power price differential for the first half of the year may exceed the analyst's expectations by approximately 2% [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the focus on the upcoming launch of the game "解限机" and the company's emphasis on AI, collaboration, and internationalization in its office software business [1][8] - The company achieved a total revenue of 2.338 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.41% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 16.28% [8] - The gaming segment showed stable operations with expectations for the performance of "解限机" upon its launch, while the office software segment is seeing growth driven by WPS personal and WPS 365 services [8] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 8.547 billion yuan - 2024: 10.318 billion yuan (up 20.91% YoY) - 2025: 11.669 billion yuan (up 13.09% YoY) - 2026: 13.149 billion yuan (up 12.68% YoY) - 2027: 14.721 billion yuan (up 11.96% YoY) [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected as follows: - 2023: 483.46 million yuan - 2024: 1,551.61 million yuan (up 220.94% YoY) - 2025: 1,866.88 million yuan (up 20.32% YoY) - 2026: 2,303.83 million yuan (up 23.41% YoY) - 2027: 2,734.62 million yuan (up 18.70% YoY) [1] - The report maintains previous earnings forecasts, with expected EPS for 2025-2027 being 1.33, 1.65, and 1.95 yuan respectively, corresponding to current P/E ratios of 25, 20, and 17 times [1][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou-W (01024) with a target price of HKD 64, indicating a potential upside of 31% from the current price [1]. Core Insights - Kuaishou's Q1 performance met expectations with total revenue and adjusted net profit of RMB 32.6 billion and RMB 4.6 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 11% and 4% [1]. - The report highlights the impact of increased AI computing power investments offsetting cost optimizations, maintaining the 2025 profit forecast at RMB 20.3 billion, with an adjusted net profit margin of 14%, stable compared to 2024 [1]. - The report emphasizes the commercial potential of Kuaishou's AI capabilities, particularly in video generation, warranting a valuation premium based on a 13x P/E ratio for 2025 [1]. Segment Overview - E-commerce GMV grew by 15% year-on-year, with MAU penetration at 19% and average spending per user also up by 7% [2]. - Online marketing revenue increased by 8% year-on-year, with content consumption and local life sectors showing strong growth [2]. - Live streaming revenue rebounded with a 14% year-on-year increase, alongside significant growth in the number of signed agencies and streamers [2]. - Local life services saw substantial growth in active merchants and product offerings, with monthly paid users increasing by 73% year-on-year [2]. - Internationally, revenue grew by 33% year-on-year, achieving positive operational profit for the first time [2]. - The report anticipates continued growth in Q2, with e-commerce GMV expected to rise by 14% and advertising revenue projected to recover with a double-digit growth rate [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is planning to spin off its renewable energy segment for a listing on the A-share market, which is expected to enhance its valuation significantly [5][10] - The company has demonstrated strong operational capabilities and management mechanisms, which are crucial for navigating through market cycles [10][27] - The company has a solid track record, having never reported a loss since its listing, and has maintained a stable return on equity (ROE) [7][16] Financial Performance and Valuation - The projected revenue for the company is expected to grow from 103,334 million HKD in 2023 to 131,238 million HKD by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6.48% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from 11,003 million HKD in 2023 to 16,635 million HKD in 2027, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [6] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 6.8, 6.6, and 6.3 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [8] Renewable Energy Segment - By the end of 2024, the company's renewable energy capacity is expected to account for nearly 50% of its total installed capacity, with significant investments planned for further expansion [7][27] - The company has a competitive edge in unit profitability for its renewable energy segment, outperforming major competitors in terms of net profit [35] - The planned IPO of the renewable energy segment is anticipated to raise 24.5 billion RMB for new projects, which could lead to a valuation exceeding 150 billion HKD post-listing [38][43] Market Position and Strategy - The company has a unique market position due to its historical roots and strategic focus on both traditional and renewable energy sectors [14][19] - The operational strategy emphasizes a balanced approach to energy generation, with a significant focus on renewable energy development in regions with higher electricity prices [27][32] - The company’s management has effectively navigated market challenges, maintaining a strong performance even during periods of industry downturns [20][24]