| [行Ta业ble_Industry] : | 基础化工 | | --- | --- | | 日期: | 2026年03月03日 shzqdatemark | | [T分ab析le师_Author] : | 于庭泽 | | SAC 编号: | S0870523040001 | | 分析师: | 郭吟冬 | 行 业 周 报 [Table增_R持at（ing维] 持） 证 券 研 究 报 告 化工品价格走势 过去一周涨幅排名前五的产品分别为：液氯（50.00%）、分散黑ECT 300%（22.22%）、碳酸锂（工业级）（20.35%）、碳酸锂（电池 级）（19.62%）、粗酚（13.59%）。过去一周跌幅前五的产品分别 为 ： 纯 MDI （ -10.20% ） 、 NYMEX 天 然 气 （ -6.23% ） 、 电 石 （ - 5.60%）、LDPE（-3.35%）、浓硝酸（-3.33%）。 SAC 编号: S0870525110001 [最Ta近bl一e_年Qu行o业teP指ic数] 与沪深 300 比较 [T相ab关le报_R告e：portInfo] 《国际油价大幅上涨，关注化工涨价行情 ——基础化工行 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [4][5]. Core Insights - The geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran is expected to drive up prices for methanol, ethylene glycol, and urea, with a comprehensive price increase anticipated for chemical products after the holiday [4]. - The report highlights the impact of differentiated electricity pricing in Shaanxi, which may accelerate the exit of outdated production capacities and improve industry dynamics [4]. - The overall capital expenditure in the chemical sector is at its peak, with low inventory levels in the supply chain, suggesting a favorable environment for price increases as downstream production resumes post-holiday [4]. Industry Dynamics - Current macroeconomic judgment indicates that oil prices are expected to remain in a relatively loose range, with Brent crude projected between $60 and $75 per barrel due to delayed OPEC+ production increases and stable demand recovery [5]. - Coal prices are expected to stabilize at a low level in the medium to long term, while natural gas costs may decrease as the US accelerates its export facility construction [5]. - The report notes that the January PPI for industrial products decreased by 1.4% year-on-year but increased by 0.4% month-on-month, indicating a slight recovery in the manufacturing sector [7]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests focusing on four main areas for investment: 1. Textile and apparel chain, benefiting from high demand growth and improved supply dynamics [4]. 2. Agricultural chemicals, with stable fertilizer demand and increasing transgenic penetration supporting long-term pesticide demand [4]. 3. Export-related chemical products, as overseas inventories are at historical lows and interest rates are expected to decline [4]. 4. "Anti-involution" policies leading to accelerated clearance of outdated capacities in various sectors [4]. Key Material Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of self-sufficiency in key materials, particularly in semiconductor and panel materials, as well as in lithium battery and fluorine materials [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the solid cost and efficiency advantages of leading Chinese chemical companies, which are entering a long-term upward performance phase. The recovery in demand is expected to sustain the improvement in the performance of supply-constrained sectors. The carbon emission control measures are likely to lead to a re-evaluation of the Chinese chemical industry, with capacity expansion slowing down significantly. This is expected to enhance free cash flow and potential dividend yields for companies, transforming them from cash-consuming entities to cash-generating ones. The report emphasizes the importance of demand, value, and supply in identifying investment opportunities [2][29] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - As of February 26, 2026, the Guohai Chemical Prosperity Index stands at 94.19, reflecting a slight increase of 0.22 from February 19, 2026 [1] Performance Analysis - The basic chemical sector has shown a performance increase of 6.0% over the past month, 26.1% over the past three months, and 52.2% over the past year, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index [4] Investment Opportunities - **Value-Driven Opportunities**: Companies such as Hualu Hengsheng, Luxi Chemical, and Baofeng Energy are highlighted for their potential dividend rate increases [2] - **Supply-Driven Opportunities**: Companies like Xin Fengming and Tongkun Co. are noted for benefiting from domestic supply constraints and European capacity exits [6] - **Demand-Driven Opportunities**: The report identifies companies in sectors such as gas turbines, refrigerants, and energy storage as key beneficiaries of growing demand [6][7] Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast for various companies, indicating a positive outlook for firms like Dongfang Shenghong, Hubei Yihua, and Baofeng Energy, with expected earnings per share (EPS) growth in the coming years [30] Market Dynamics - The report discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions on oil prices, which are expected to rise, benefiting companies like China Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation. It also notes potential supply shortages in methanol and urea due to disruptions in Iranian production [10][11] Price Trends - Recent price movements include a significant increase in battery-grade lithium carbonate prices, which rose by 19.18% week-on-week, driven by supply constraints and demand recovery [14] Conclusion - The report concludes that the chemical industry is entering a favorable cycle, driven by supply-side constraints and increasing demand, making it an attractive investment area [29]

行 华福证券 基础化工 2026 年 03 月 01 日 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 告 基础化工 行业周报：乐天百万吨级乙烯装置将关停，巴斯 夫再度调高 MDI 报价 投资要点： 本周板块行情：本周，上证综合指数上涨 1.98%，创业板指数上涨 1.05%， 沪深 300 上涨 1.08%，中信基础化工指数上涨 6.21%，申万化工指数上涨 7.15%。 化工各子行业板块涨跌幅：本周，化工板块涨跌幅前五的子行业分别为磷 肥及磷化工(18.51%)、纯碱(14.02%)、复合肥(13.17%)、钛白粉(10.63%)、有机 硅(9.76%)；化工板块涨跌幅后五的子行业分别为印染化学品(1.39%)、涂料油 墨颜料(1.81%)、改性塑料(2.13%)、轮胎(2.63%)、涤纶(2.75%)。 本周行业主要动态： 乐天百万吨级乙烯装置将关停。韩国政府 2 月 25 日宣布提供 2.1 万亿韩 元(约合人民币 100 亿元)的财政和税收支持，用于乐天化学公司和 HD 现代 化学公司在大山工业园区的重组项目。这是韩国石化行业大规模自救计划 中首个获批的重组项目。根据重组计划，乐天化学将把位于韩国忠清南道 的大仙 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights Han Chuang as a prominent fund manager in the public fund industry, known for his unique investment logic of "cyclical + growth" and his successful management of the Dachen Industry Trend Mixed Fund, which has shown significant performance despite market fluctuations [1][22]. Group 1: Fund Manager Profile - Han Chuang has 13 years of experience in the securities industry, including 7 years in fund management, and is recognized for his keen insight into industry trends and abundant resources [2][23]. - He joined Dachen Fund Management in June 2015 and currently serves as the Deputy Director and Managing Director of the Equity Investment Department [2][23]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Han specializes in selecting industries with beta and identifying companies with alpha, while ensuring reasonable valuations, covering sectors such as finance, real estate, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and high-end manufacturing [4][25]. - His investment framework focuses on "hard assets," which are scarce and irreplaceable, emphasizing supply constraints rather than demand [11][31]. Group 3: Fund Performance - The Dachen Industry Trend Fund has achieved a cumulative return of 127.85% since its inception, significantly outperforming its benchmark and the CSI 300 index [7][27]. - The fund ranks in the top 3% of its category over the past four years, demonstrating strong historical performance [27][38]. Group 4: Portfolio Composition - As of the fourth quarter of 2025, the fund's top holdings include companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, such as Xinyi Silver Tin and Shandong Gold, with significant allocations to financial and transportation sectors as well [33][39].

掌握电商运营技能的复合型人才成为传统制造企业和新兴传媒企业争抢的目标。 图片由受访单位提供 本报记者 姜雪 王卢莎 张霖 引子 马年新春刚一开工，我省各地就热闹起来，企业急着招人，求职者忙着寻岗。今年用工有哪些新变化？本报记者在多地采访，发现今年的用工 市场有了新模样：制造业技术工人与技能人才双双紧俏，银发经济催生养老护理新岗位，线上销售带火传媒电商新职业。这些变化里，装着老 沈阳新年首场大型招聘会上，1万多个优质岗位助力人才与企业精准对接。 图片由受访单位提供 百姓的饭碗，也展现着社会发展的新气象。 在沈阳，赛轮（沈阳）轮胎有限公司招聘经理籍元的手机，响得比年前还勤。"3月份扩产，生产线还得加人。"他一边整理简历，一边对记者 说。春节前，新工厂投产在即的赛轮曾遭遇上千人用工缺口，籍元把求助电话打到沈阳市人才与就业服务中心。"沈阳就业"直播带岗团队立马 连续5天"云探厂"，短短几天之内，企业收到简历1000多份，解了燃眉之急。如今扩产再启，企业再次求助，新一轮岗位需求依然集中在生产一 线。 2月25日，沈阳市人社部门与市工信局紧密对接，针对全市17家重点企业521人的缺工需求，打出就业服务"组合拳"：依托"沈 ...

Core Viewpoint - Sailun Tire announced that all guarantee objects are within the company's consolidated financial statements, and there have been no overdue guarantees to date. The company has not provided guarantees for its actual controllers or their related parties [2] Group 1 - The company confirmed that there are no overdue guarantees as of now [2] - All guarantee objects fall within the scope of the company's consolidated financial statements [2] - The company has not extended guarantees to its actual controllers or their related parties [2]

Core Insights - In 2025, the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) issued 39 new tire factory identification codes, with Chinese companies securing 26 of these, representing nearly 70% of the total [1][13] - This development marks a significant expansion of China's tire production capacity and reflects a new trend of globalized layout in the tire industry, combining domestic and international strategies [3][15] Group 1: Domestic Expansion - Leading Chinese tire manufacturers are actively expanding their production capabilities. Zhongce Rubber Group received two new codes for its factories in Jintan and Tianjin, focusing on electric vehicle tires and a $400 million transformation after acquiring the Tianli Tire brand [3][15] - Sailun Group has also made significant moves, registering a new company in Shenyang, which involves a $240 million investment to expand a former Bridgestone factory, aiming for an annual production capacity exceeding 3 million tires [5][17] - Other domestic companies like Senqilin, Shuangtuo, Wanjun, and Kubisen have also received new codes, indicating an overall leap in production scale and technical qualifications within China's tire manufacturing sector [19] Group 2: International Expansion - Chinese tire companies are accelerating their overseas expansion, with all five new codes in Cambodia awarded to Chinese firms, demonstrating a clustering effect of Chinese capital in the region [19] - Yongsheng Rubber's factory in Morocco, which received code 09J, is planned to have an annual capacity of 18 million tires, primarily targeting European and African markets, marking a strategic shift from Southeast Asia to North Africa [19] - The global landscape of tire manufacturing is undergoing a "reshuffling," with a focus on active manufacturing bases, as evidenced by the concentration of new codes among dynamic producers [10][22] Group 3: Global Manufacturing Trends - Despite over 2,000 DOT codes issued globally, fewer than 1,000 factories are actively producing, highlighting a trend of "eliminating the obsolete" in tire manufacturing [10][22] - The data indicates a shift in the global supply chain, with new codes also being issued in Mexico and India, reflecting a broader adjustment in manufacturing capabilities [10][22]

证券代码：601058 证券简称：赛轮轮胎 公告编号：临 2026-003 赛轮集团股份有限公司 关于提供担保的进展公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 担保对象及基本情况 | | 被担保人名称 | 赛轮销售 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 本次担保金额 | | | 53,200 | 万元 | | 担保对象 | 实际为其提供的担保余额 | | | 29.16 | 亿元 | | | 是否在前期预计额度内 | ☑是 | □否 | | | | | 本次担保是否有反担保 | □是 | ☑否 | | | | 担保对象 | 被担保人名称 | 赛轮香港 | | | | | | 本次担保金额 | | | 3,000 | 万元 | | | 实际为其提供的担保余额 | | | 47.77 | 亿元 | | | 是否在前期预计额度内 | ☑是 | □否 | | | | | 本次担保是否有反担保 | □是 | ☑否 | | | | | 被担保人名称 | ...

中国轮胎行业"出海"浪潮再添新军。继中策橡胶、赛轮集团在印尼布局并取得显著成效后，国内两轮车轮胎巨头四川远星橡胶有限责任公司（以下简 称"远星橡胶"）正计划加入这一行列。据报道，远星橡胶已对印尼进行考察评估，规划建设新厂，标志着这家深耕行业三十年的川企，正加速从"产品出 口"向"产能出海"战略转型。 两轮车轮胎"隐形冠军"谋变 远星橡胶始创于1996年，历经三十年发展，已成长为中国两轮车轮胎领域的领军企业。数据显示，2025年1至9月，该公司实现产值约27亿元，同比增长 10%，全年产值预计达36亿元，成功跻身四川制造百强企业。 在产能建设上，远星橡胶扩张迅猛。随着年产1000万条高性能轮胎项目达产及年产3000万条子午线轮胎技改项目的推进，预计2026年底全厂轮胎年产能将 达1.48亿条。其客户阵容豪华，涵盖本田、雅马哈、铃木等摩托车巨头，以及雅迪、爱玛、小米、美团等电动车与出行品牌。在巩固两轮市场霸主地位的 同时，远星橡胶亦在积极进军乘用车轮胎领域，其斥资13.2亿元打造的4.0智慧工厂已全面投产，并发布了高端PCR品牌"利语"，剑指新能源汽车后市场。 瞄准全球第三大两轮车市场 远星橡胶选择印尼作为出海首 ...