证券研究报告 印尼意在稳价，节后有望开启 补库行情 ——煤炭行业周报（2月第1周） 行业评级：看好 2026年2月8日 分析师 樊金璐 邮箱 fanjinlu@stocke.com.cn 电话 13466717654 证书编号 S1230525030002 摘要 1.煤炭板块收跌，跑赢沪深300指数：截至2026年2月6日，本周中信煤炭行业收跌0.61%，沪深300指数下跌1.33%，跑赢沪深300指数0.72个百分点。全板块整周9只股价上涨，27 只下跌，1只持平。陕西黑猫涨幅最高，整周涨幅为12.88%。 2.重点煤矿周度数据：中国煤炭运销协会数据，2026年1月30日-2026年2月5日，重点监测企业煤炭日均销量为733万吨，周环比减少3.3%，年同比增加35.9%。其中，动力煤周日 均销量较上周减少2.5%，炼焦煤销量较上周减少8.2%，无烟煤销量较上周减少3.5%。截至2026年2月5日，重点监测企业煤炭日均产量为740万吨，周环比减少1.7%，年同比增加 33.2%；重点监测企业煤炭库存总量（含港存）2273万吨，周环比增加2.2%，年同比减少23.8%。今年以来，供给端，重点监测企业煤炭累计销量 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that coal prices are expected to recover gradually to a reasonable price level of around 750 CNY/ton, influenced by supply constraints and increasing demand due to seasonal factors [3][5] - The report highlights that the price of thermal coal has reached a turning point, with a projected upward trajectory supported by policy adjustments and market dynamics [5][14] - The focus on both cyclical recovery and dividend stability presents a dual investment logic for coal stocks, suggesting that now is an opportune time for investment [6][15] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal prices are expected to rise through a four-step process: repairing central and local long-term contracts, reaching the coal-electricity profit-sharing line, and potentially exceeding the breakeven point for power plants, estimated at 860 CNY [5][14] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by supply-demand fundamentals, with target prices based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices [5][14] Key Market Indicators - As of February 6, the price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal was 695 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 3 CNY from the previous week [3][20] - The report notes a decrease in the production rate of coal mines, with the operating rate for 442 coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia at 82.7% [20][21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests four main lines for selecting coal stocks: 1. Cyclical logic: companies like Jinko Coal and Yanzhou Coal 2. Dividend logic: China Shenhua and Zhongmei Energy 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: Shenhuo Co. and Electric Power Investment 4. Growth logic: Xinjie Energy and Guanghui Energy [6][15] Company Performance - The coal index experienced a slight decline of 0.62%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.71 percentage points [8][24] - Major coal companies showed varied performance, with some experiencing significant gains while others faced declines [24][26]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that coal prices are expected to recover gradually to a reasonable price level of around 750 CNY/ton, influenced by supply constraints and increasing demand due to seasonal factors [3][5] - The report highlights that the price of thermal coal has reached a turning point, with a projected upward trajectory supported by policy adjustments and market dynamics [5][14] - The focus on both cyclical recovery and dividend stability presents a dual investment logic for coal stocks, suggesting that now is an opportune time for investment [6][15] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal prices are expected to rise through a four-step process: repairing central and local long-term contracts, reaching the coal-electricity profit-sharing line, and approaching the breakeven point for power plants, estimated at 860 CNY/ton [5][14] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by supply and demand fundamentals, with target prices based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices [5][14] Market Performance - The coal index experienced a slight decline of 0.62%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.71 percentage points [8][24] - The average PE ratio for the coal sector is 15.71, and the PB ratio is 1.38, indicating relatively low valuations compared to other sectors [8][9] Key Indicators - As of February 6, the price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal was 695 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 3 CNY/ton from the previous week [3][20] - The price of coking coal at Jingtang Port was reported at 1660 CNY/ton, down from 1800 CNY/ton, indicating a significant weekly decline [20][22] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a selection of coal stocks based on two main strategies: cyclical recovery and dividend stability, with specific companies highlighted for potential investment [6][15] - Key stocks recommended include: Jin控煤业, 兖矿能源 for cyclical logic; 中国神华, 中煤能源 for dividend potential; 神火股份, 电投能源 for diversified aluminum elasticity; 新集能源, 广汇能源 for growth logic [15][16]

Fund Size Statistics - The top three equity ETF types by fund size change are: Scale Index ETF (¥15.406 billion), Cross-border Industry Index ETF (¥6.624 billion), and Strategy Index ETF (¥5.384 billion) [9] - The bottom three equity ETF types by fund size change are: Theme Index ETF (-¥26.004 billion), Cross-border Scale Index ETF (-¥1.807 billion), and Cross-border Theme Index ETF (¥0.203 billion) [9] - The top three equity ETF products by fund size change are: CSI 500 ETF (¥2.832 billion), Chemical ETF (¥2.386 billion), and HuShen 300 ETF (¥2.229 billion) [9] - The bottom three equity ETF products by fund size change are: Communication ETF (-¥30.885 billion), Non-ferrous Metals ETF (-¥3.932 billion), and Gold Stock ETF (-¥2.963 billion) [13] Market Outlook - The macro timing model for February 2026 has a score of 0, indicating a historical 78.57% probability of the full A index rising in the following month, with an average increase of 3.37% [23] - A-shares are expected to experience a short-term volatile market, influenced by liquidity from overseas markets and the recent AI bubble discussions affecting tech growth stocks [23] - The recommendation is to adopt a balanced ETF allocation strategy due to the anticipated short-term fluctuations in the market [60]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several key companies in the coal industry, including Shanxi Coking Coal, Lu'an Environmental Energy, Yancoal Energy, and China Shenhua [5][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights that supply constraints, particularly from Indonesia, are expected to support coal prices, suggesting a favorable environment for investment in flexible coal stocks [7][8]. - The coal market is anticipated to maintain a weak supply-demand balance as the Chinese New Year approaches, but with expectations of rising global coal prices due to reduced supply from Indonesia [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the potential for coal prices to rise, recommending a focus on companies with strong dividend yields and low valuations, as well as those with significant production capacity growth [8][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry comprises 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 19,855.11 billion [2]. 2. Company Performance - Key companies such as Shanxi Coking Coal and Lu'an Environmental Energy are projected to have strong earnings per share (EPS) growth, with respective estimates for 2026 at 0.40 and 0.76 [5]. - The report tracks the operational performance of listed companies, noting their dividend policies and growth prospects [12][14]. 3. Coal Price Tracking - The report provides insights into coal price trends, indicating that the price of thermal coal at the Qinhuangdao port has seen a slight increase, while coking coal prices have experienced a decline [8][9]. - As of February 6, 2026, the average daily production of thermal coal from sample mines was 5.281 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.90% [8]. 4. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes that supply from Indonesia is tightening due to government-imposed production cuts, which is expected to impact global coal prices positively [7][8]. - Demand for coal is projected to decline as industrial electricity consumption decreases with the approach of the Chinese New Year [7][8]. 5. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies three main investment themes: focusing on high-dividend, low-valuation stocks, companies with significant production growth, and those positioned for recovery in coking coal prices [8][9].

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·煤炭开采 煤炭开采行业跟踪周报 供给现货趋紧，港口煤价小幅上涨 2026 年 02 月 07 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 行业近况 本周（2 月 2 日至 2 月 6 日）港口动力煤现货价环比上涨 3 元/吨，报收 695 元/吨。 供给端，本周环渤海四港区日均调入量 161.80 万吨，环比上周增加 6.6 万吨，增幅 4.27%；本周产地供应来看，临近春节山西、陕西、内蒙因 煤矿停产有所下降，港口供应量略有提升。 需求端，本周环渤海四港区日均调出量 158 万吨，环比上周减少 31 万 吨，跌幅 16.55%；日均锚地船舶共 99 艘，环比降幅 1.5%；环渤海四港 区库存端 2463.40 万吨，环比上周减少 5 万吨，降幅 0.21% 。本周港口 调出量减少，库存略有下降，带动煤价上涨。 我们分析认为：本周港口煤价受到供给略有收缩叠加节前刚需补库影 响略有上涨，电厂日耗仍以刚需为主，工业用电临近过年有所走弱，叠 加新能源水电风电挤压火电份额，预计煤价维持震荡走势。 估值与建议： 仍旧关注保险资金增量；保费收入维持正增长，且向头部 ...

行 业 研 究 4022 煤炭 2026 年 02 月 07 日 印尼出口现扰动，煤炭低位可配置 投资要点： 动力煤 行 业 定 期 报 告 截至 2 月 6 日，秦港 5500K 动力末煤平仓价 695 元/吨，周环比 +3 元/吨，内蒙古产地价持平、山西产地价小跌、陕西产地价持平。 截至 2 月 6 日，动力煤 462 家样本矿山日均产量 528.1 万吨，环比-4.8 万吨，年同比+8.8%。本周电厂日耗大跌，电厂库存小涨，动力煤库 存指数小跌，秦港库存小跌，截至 2 月 2 日，动力煤库存指数为 174.2（-6.2）。非电方面，甲醇、尿素开工率分别为 92.3%（+1.1pct） 和 89.1%（+0.9pct），仍处于历史同期偏高水平。 焦煤 截至 2 月 6 日，京唐港主焦煤库提价 1660 元/吨，周环比-140 元/ 吨，山西产地价大跌，河南产地价小跌、安徽产地价格持平。截至 2 月 6 日，523 家样本矿山精煤日均产量 75.5 万吨（-1.6 万吨），年同比 +60.7%，523 家样本矿山精煤库存 264.7 万吨（-2.5 万吨），年同比- 30.6%；截至 2 月 6 日，中国日 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2][26]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Indonesia's coal production is expected to decline significantly in 2026 due to the revision of the RKAB quota, with production set at approximately 600 million tons, a notable decrease from 740 million tons in 2025 [6][7]. - The reduction in coal production is anticipated to lead to a tightening of coal supply, which may drive up global coal prices, particularly for thermal coal [7]. - The Indonesian government is implementing policies to control coal production and exports, aiming to enhance domestic energy security and increase fiscal revenue through coal export taxes [7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The total number of listed companies in the coal industry is 37, with a total market capitalization of approximately 198.55 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of about 194.41 billion yuan [2]. Regulatory Changes - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is reviewing the RKAB quotas, which are crucial for coal mining operations. The approval rate for the first batch of RKAB in 2026 was only 71.49%, with significant reductions in approved quotas for many companies [6][7]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the domestic market obligation (DMO) will be adjusted to ensure local demand is met before allowing coal exports. The DMO demand is expected to remain above 250 million tons [7]. - The report predicts that Indonesia's coal exports will face substantial declines starting in Q2 2026, which will further constrain global coal supply and potentially elevate prices [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-elasticity stocks in the thermal coal sector, including companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Huayang Co., and others, as they are expected to benefit from rising coal prices [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the oil and petrochemical industry [3] Core Insights - As of January 30, 2026, domestic LNG ex-factory prices increased by 5.0% month-on-month, while U.S. natural gas futures prices rose by 19.0% month-on-month [2][8] - China's natural gas production in January 2026 increased by 11.67% month-on-month, indicating a positive trend in supply [2][16] - European natural gas inventories decreased by 22.75% month-on-month, reflecting tightening supply conditions [2][19] Price Summary - Domestic LNG ex-factory price reached 4045.00 CNY/ton, up 186.00 CNY/ton from the previous month [8] - LNG import price in China was 12.10 USD/MMBtu, a month-on-month increase of 26.62% [8] - U.S. NYMEX natural gas futures closed at 4.42 USD/MMBtu, reflecting a 19.00% month-on-month increase [8][11] Supply and Demand - China's natural gas production in January 2026 was 549,920 tons, an increase of 11.67% month-on-month [16] - China's apparent natural gas consumption rose to 40.812 billion cubic meters, an increase of 8.69% month-on-month [16] Inventory - U.S. LNG/LPG inventory as of January 23, 2026, was 164,365 thousand barrels, down 6.66% month-on-month [19] - European natural gas inventory was 47.514 billion kWh, a decrease of 32.89% month-on-month [19][23] Import and Export - European natural gas imports for the first three weeks of January 2026 totaled 18,278 million cubic meters, a decrease of 24.82% month-on-month [24] - Imports of natural gas from Russia to Europe also declined, with a month-on-month decrease of 26.10% [24][29]

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "synchronous with the market" [3] Core Insights - The coal market has shown a mixed performance, with supply constraints in thermal coal and limited downstream demand. The price of thermal coal has seen slight increases, while metallurgical coal prices remain stable [4][5][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring downstream replenishment demand and market supply conditions as the industry approaches the Spring Festival [6] Summary by Sections 1. Coal Industry Market Performance - The coal market has experienced a contraction in supply, particularly in thermal coal, with limited increases in downstream consumption. As of January 30, the spot price for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim was 695 RMB/ton, reflecting a weekly change of +0.58% [4] - The inventory of coal at nine ports in the Bohai Rim was reported at 24.686 million tons, a decrease of 5.07% week-on-week [4] 2. Thermal Coal - Supply has contracted due to some private mines halting production for the Spring Festival, leading to reduced thermal coal output. The demand from power plants has not significantly increased, and the cement market remains weak [4] 3. Metallurgical Coal - Production levels for metallurgical coal remain stable, with prices showing slight increases. As of January 30, the price for main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,800 RMB/ton, unchanged from the previous week [5] - The total inventory of coking coal at independent coking plants and sample steel mills was reported at 10.361 million tons and 8.141 million tons, respectively, with week-on-week changes of +4.09% and +1.38% [5] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the loosening of the US dollar credit system may lead to a revaluation of physical assets, enhancing pricing power in the commodity sector. However, geopolitical tensions and changes in the Federal Reserve leadership could lead to short-term volatility [6] - Specific companies to watch include Guohui Energy for oil and gas, and for coking coal, focus on Panjiang Coal, Shanxi Coking Coal, Huabei Mining, and others. For thermal coal, attention is drawn to Yanzhou Coal, Shanxi Coal International, and others [6]