Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Polyolefins face significant upward pressure and are expected to trade within a range. The PE main contract is expected to oscillate within a range, with support at 6,700, while the PP main contract is expected to be weakly oscillating, with support at 6,400. The LP spread is expected to widen [8][9]. - Plastics still have supply - demand contradictions and are expected to trade in an oscillatory manner [10]. - PP faces high trend pressure and is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short - term [50]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Plastic Section Market Review - On November 28, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6,789 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.28%. The average price of LDPE was 9,000 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.37%. The average price of HDPE was 7,387.90 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7,188.33 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.00%. The LLDPE South China basis was 399.33 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 18.60%, and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 68 yuan/ton (-7) [12]. Key Data Tracking - **Month - spread**: On November 28, 2025, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 68 yuan/ton (-7), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 25 yuan/ton (+21), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 93 yuan/ton (-14) [18]. - **Spot Price**: Different regions and varieties of plastics had various price changes on November 28, 2025, with some showing increases and others decreases [19][20]. - **Cost**: WTI crude oil closed at $58.48 per barrel, an increase of $0.50 per barrel from the previous week. Brent crude oil closed at $62.32 per barrel, a decrease of $0.43 per barrel from the previous week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,110 yuan/ton (unchanged) [22]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was - 337 yuan/ton, an increase of 78 yuan/ton from the previous week. The profit of coal - based PE was - 237 yuan/ton, a decrease of 129 yuan/ton from the previous week [27]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of polyethylene production in China this week was 84.51%, an increase of 1.79 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly output of polyethylene was 68.48 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.16%. The maintenance loss this week was 8.68 tons, a decrease of 1.27 tons from the previous week [32]. - **2025 Production Plan**: A total of 5.43 million tons of new polyethylene production capacity is planned to be put into operation in 2025, with some already in operation and some scheduled for December 2025 [35]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Multiple enterprises' polyethylene production lines are under maintenance, with some having undetermined restart times [36]. - **Demand**: The overall operating rate of domestic agricultural film this week was 49.04%, a decrease of 0.87% from the previous week. The operating rate of PE packaging film was 50.70%, a decrease of 0.23% from the previous weekend. The operating rate of PE pipes was 31.83%, a decrease of 0.17% from the previous weekend [38]. - **Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 39.1%, with a difference of 3.8% from the annual average level. The difference between the low - pressure film and the annual average data is significant, currently accounting for 10%, with a difference of 3.2% from the annual average level [41]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of plastic enterprises this week was 47.11 tons, a decrease of 1.48 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 3.05% [43]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 11,546 lots, a decrease of 289 lots from the previous week [47]. PP Section Market Review - On November 28, the closing price of the PP main contract was 6,357 yuan/ton, a decrease of 117 yuan/ton from the previous weekend, a month - on - month decrease of 1.81% [51]. Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Price**: Different PP products and related products had various price changes on November 28, 2025 [52][55]. - **Basis**: On November 28, the spot price of PP reported by Shengyi.com was 6,363.33 yuan/ton (-43.34). The PP basis was - 46 yuan/ton (-95), and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 81 yuan/ton (+36) [57]. - **Month - spread**: On November 28, 2025, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 81 yuan/ton (+36), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 14 yuan/ton (+29), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 95 yuan/ton (-65) [60]. - **Cost**: WTI crude oil closed at $58.48 per barrel, an increase of $0.50 per barrel from the previous week. Brent crude oil closed at $62.32 per barrel, a decrease of $0.43 per barrel from the previous week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,110 yuan/ton (unchanged) [65]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was - 598.26 yuan/ton, an increase of 77.39 yuan/ton from the previous weekend. The profit of coal - based PP was - 579.80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34.13 yuan/ton from the previous weekend [70]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises this week was 78.14%, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly output of PP pellets was 80.68 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.18%. The weekly output of PP powder was 7.65 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.01% [75]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Multiple enterprises' PP production lines are under maintenance, with some having undetermined restart times [78]. - **Demand**: The average downstream operating rate this week was 53.83% (+0.26). The operating rate of plastic weaving was 44.10% (-0.14%), the operating rate of BOPP was 62.60% (unchanged), the operating rate of injection molding was 58.87% (-0.19%), and the operating rate of pipes was 42.17% (+2.04%) [80]. - **Production Ratio**: Different PP product production ratios had various changes from November 24 - 28, 2025 [86]. - **Import and Export Profit**: This week, the PP import profit was - 246.96 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.50 US dollars/ton compared to the previous week. The export profit was - 12.31 US dollars/ton, an increase of 8.10 US dollars/ton compared to the previous week [87]. - **Inventory**: The domestic PP inventory this week was 54.63 tons (-8.00%); the inventory of the two major oil companies decreased by 7.88% month - on - month, the inventory of traders decreased by 6.04% month - on - month, and the port inventory decreased by 0.76% month - on - month [90]. - **Finished Product and Raw Material Inventory**: The finished product inventory of large - scale plastic - weaving enterprises this week was 990.01 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.08%. The BOPP raw material inventory was 10.25 days, a month - on - month increase of 3.64% [98]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of PP warehouse receipts was 15,866 lots, an increase of 133 lots from the previous week [103].

氯碱周报 S H ：供需仍存压力累库持续 ， 预计价格偏弱运行 V ：供应压力增长 ， 价格难有持续向上驱动 广发期货研究所 蒋诗语 投资咨询资格：Z0017002 本报告及路演当中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读此报告倒数第二页的免责声明 观点及策略建议 ◼ 烧碱主要观点：烧碱行业供需仍存一定压力，山东氯碱企业开工高位，主力下游企业押车情况仍存，企业库存偏高，短期暂无利好显现。华东地区下周供应仍宽裕，传统需求 淡季延续，出口没有明显提振，预估华东价格延续趋弱表现。整体看需求端支撑较弱，长期看供需仍有压力。预计烧碱价格偏弱运行。 ◼ PVC主要观点：本周PVC盘面底部震荡，预计下周仍延续震荡格局，供应端下周压力不减，开工率仍有提升空间。需求端维持低迷，软制品支撑较好，整体下游开工维持低位。 11月-次年1月处于传统需求淡季，北方进入冬季室外施工逐渐减少，整体地产需求减量仍形成利空影响。出口方面，国内货源有价格优势，出口签单表现较好，前期印度官方取消 2024年发布的进口PVC BIS认证政策，有利于国内PVC进入印度市场，虽然印度取消BIS认证，但是反倾销税预期执行，预期外需难以大幅提升。整体需求端对PVC支撑乏 ...

专题报告 2025-12-01 聚烯烃：聚乙烯能否上演 2020 年 3 月的急跌行情？ 报告要点： xushaozu@wkqh.cn 本文综合对比宏观及基本面信息后，得出 2020 年的行情是全球需求由于疫情爆发瞬间"冰封" + 原油成本坍塌（沙特与俄罗斯价格战，WTI 原油跌至负值），形成了"需求崩溃"与"成本 崩溃"的双杀，这是一种宏观系统性风险驱动的单边策略。而当前市场的核心矛盾是"高库 存"与"弱现实"下的结构性矛盾，在低估值背景下单边做空聚乙烯性价比已不高。两者在驱 动逻辑、市场环境和行情烈度上均有天壤之别。 因此结合基本面及季节性因素建议参与 LL2601-2605 反套策略，收益将主要来源于近远月合约 的相对强弱变化。 徐绍祖 能化分析师 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 0755-23982459 能源化工研究 | 聚烯烃 1. 从期现结构看 2025 年 PE 期现结构已由水平转为 Backwardation（Back），通常反映的是远月压力更大，但 市场对远期抱有修复预期。在这种结构下，近月更容易阴跌或滞涨，但极少出现因近月带动而 引发的整体性崩盘。崩盘通常发 ...

Core Insights - The China Petroleum Industry Index rose by 0.64% as of November 28, 2025, with leading stocks including Hengyi Petrochemical, Guangdong Hongda, Kuncai Technology, Xingfa Group, and Tongkun Co. [1] - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) increased by 0.49%, reaching a latest price of 0.82 yuan, and has seen a total net inflow of 18.82 million yuan over the past six days [1]. - The Petrochemical ETF's latest scale reached 193 million yuan, marking a one-year high, with a total share count of 234 million, also a one-year high [1]. Performance Metrics - The Petrochemical ETF's net value increased by 25.88% over the past six months [1]. - The highest single-month return since inception was 15.86%, with the longest consecutive monthly gain being seven months and a maximum cumulative increase of 27.01% [1]. - The average monthly return during the rising months was 4.96%, and the ETF outperformed the benchmark with an annualized excess return of 4.95% over the past six months [1]. Index Composition - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Petroleum Industry Index accounted for 56.67% of the index, including Wanhua Chemical, China Petroleum, and Yilong Mining [1]. - The weightings of the top stocks are as follows: Wanhua Chemical at 10.47%, China Petroleum at 7.63%, and Salt Lake Potash at 6.44% [3].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Market Outlook**: The Chinese market remains optimistic despite recent adjustments in major indices such as the Shanghai Composite, ChiNext, and STAR 50. The adjustments are comparable to historical bull market corrections, and panic selling risks have been sufficiently released. Policy catalysts are expected to increase [1][3][4] - **Investment Style Shift**: The market investment style is shifting from a barbell strategy or pure valuation expansion to a quality strategy and urgent investment strategy, driven by a decline in domestic risk-free interest rates and an increase in global liquidity [1][5] Transportation Industry - **Airline Sector**: The airline industry is expected to enter a super cycle of profitability, with rising ticket prices and profit margins over the next two years. This is driven by supply-demand recovery and increasing passenger traffic, with historical highs in passenger load factors and ticket prices observed [1][7][8][11] - **Oil Shipping Sector**: The oil shipping market is benefiting from increased crude oil production and sanctions, leading to rising freight rates. Current rates have reached over $130,000 per day, with strong demand expected to continue into 2026 [1][12][13][14] Chemical Industry - **Market Conditions**: The chemical market is currently in a bottoming phase, with some products like sulfur and PMA seeing significant price increases. The overall chemical price index is at a historical low, indicating potential for future price increases [1][15][16] - **Recommended Companies**: Companies with cost advantages and stable earnings, such as Hualu Hengsheng and Boryung Chemical, are recommended for investment [1][16] Metals Market - **Copper and Aluminum**: The copper and aluminum markets are expected to experience supply-demand mismatches, with emerging technologies driving demand. This is likely to support price increases in the long term [1][19] Gold and Lithium Carbonate - **Gold Market**: The gold market is currently volatile, but there are opportunities to invest in leading gold companies due to recent price corrections. The lithium carbonate market is expected to balance out supply and demand by 2026-2027, driven by increased storage demand [1][20] Steel Industry - **Future Trends**: The steel industry is seeing demand bottoming out, with supply-side reductions due to anti-involution policies. Capital expenditures are expected to decrease significantly in 2026, presenting opportunities for investment in leading steel companies [1][21] Coal Industry - **Long-term Contracts**: The reform of long-term coal contract pricing mechanisms is expected to enhance profitability for coal companies at the bottom of the cycle. The demand for coal is driven by emerging industries such as AI and new energy vehicles [1][24][25][26] Real Estate and Construction - **Market Movements**: The real estate sector is experiencing fluctuations due to policy changes and negative sentiment from declining data. However, there is potential for recovery in 2026-2027, particularly for leading companies [1][29][30][31] Power Generation - **Electricity Demand**: Electricity demand is expected to perform well in 2026, supported by economic growth. However, coal prices are currently high, and long-term contracts will help stabilize prices for northern power plants [1][34] Public Utilities - **Investment Opportunities**: Large state-owned enterprises in northern regions are recommended for investment due to favorable supply-demand dynamics and valuation advantages. The renewable energy sector also presents investment opportunities, although further policy support is needed [1][37]

Summary of Conference Call on Chemical Industry Investment Opportunities Industry Overview - The chemical industry is currently experiencing historically low gross margins per ton due to rapid domestic capacity expansion leading to oversupply, while demand has not significantly decreased, indicating potential improvement in supply-demand dynamics in the future [1][2][3] - Companies are proactively reducing capital expenditures, with expectations of continued negative growth in capital expenditures for chemical listed companies from 2024 to 2026 [1][2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Both domestic and international supply sides are showing signs of contraction. Domestically, companies are reducing capital expenditures due to poor profitability, while internationally, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has increased energy costs in Europe and led to operational difficulties for global chemical leaders, accelerating the shutdown of production lines [1][3] - The demand side is expected to recover, with the U.S. entering a rate-cutting cycle, followed by China and the UK, which may lead to a resonance in demand between China and the U.S. [1][3] Emerging Opportunities - New industries such as renewable energy, energy storage, photovoltaics, and AI are expected to drive incremental demand for chemical products, with the industry projected to enter an upward cycle from 2026 to 2027 [1][3] - Recommended sectors include: - **Bottom Elastic Products**: Organic silicon and industrial silicon benefiting from high energy consumption characteristics and energy-saving trends (e.g., Hengsheng Silicon, Xin'an Chemical, Xingfa Group) [1][4] - **Soda Ash**: Benefiting from anti-dumping policies despite expansion (e.g., Boyuan Chemical) [1][4] - **PTA and Polyester Filament**: Stable growth in end-user demand (e.g., Tongkun, Xinfengming) [1][4] Investment Recommendations - Focus on quality stocks with bottom valuations and potential volume growth, such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Longbai Group, and Huahong New Materials [2][4][7] - Growth companies in tires and new materials are also worth attention, such as Sailun Tire, Xin Nuobang, and Shengquan Group, which benefit from AI, new energy development, and domestic substitution [5] Strategic Outlook for 2026 - The strategy for the petrochemical industry in 2026 will adopt a top-down framework due to prolonged low margins (10%-20%) and the completion of capital expenditures in 2023 and 2024 [6][7] - Anticipation of three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, reducing rates to around 3%, is expected to support a soft landing for the global economy [6] Key Focus Areas in Petrochemical Sector - The PTA sector is highlighted as a key area of focus, with optimism regarding market corrections and support from national policies [7][8] - Attention should also be given to cyclical sectors, including private refining companies like Satellite Chemical, Baofeng Energy, and Hengli Petrochemical, which are expected to experience reversals [8] Additional Investment Opportunities - Other notable investment opportunities include the POE market and Xinjiang coal chemical stocks, which are expected to perform well due to stable operations and significant profit margin potential [11] - Companies like Aerospace Engineering and 3D Chemical are highlighted for their safety margins and potential valuation recovery due to supportive policies [11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [6] Core Insights - The unexpected shutdown of Huntsman’s MDI facility in Europe is expected to drive a rebound in MDI prices, with European and Middle Eastern prices already increasing [9] - The report highlights a recovery in the chemical industry, particularly in MDI, PVC, and phosphate chemicals, driven by high growth expectations in energy storage [8] - The report suggests that the supply contraction in MDI could lead to a price rebound, despite current demand not being at its peak [9] Summary by Sections MDI Market - Huntsman's MDI production facility in the Netherlands, with a capacity of 280,000 tons/year, is undergoing unexpected maintenance, which is likely to last at least a month, leading to price increases in MDI [9] - The report notes that MDI prices have already returned to last year's high points, and the supply situation is more favorable compared to TDI [9] Chemical Industry Outlook - The report identifies several companies with potential for recovery in the PVC sector, including Zhongtai Chemical, Xinjiang Tianye, Chlor-alkali Chemical, and Tianyuan Co., with Wanhua Chemical being highlighted as a leading MDI player [3] - The report also emphasizes the potential for price increases in oxalic acid, driven by demand from the new energy sector, with prices rising to 3,180 yuan/ton [9]

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证券分析师 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 任杰 A0230522070003 renjie@swsresearch.com 赵文琪 A0230523060003 zhaowq@swsresearch.com 邵靖宇 A0230524080001 shaojy@swsresearch.com 周超 A0230525090001 zhouchao@swsresearch.com 李绍程 A0230525070002 lisc@swsresearch.com 联系人 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 2025 年 11 月 30 日 发改委持续推进"反内卷"进程， 多地 MDI 停车检修致价格上涨， 钾肥进口大合同同比持稳 看好 ——《化工周报 25/11/24-25/11/28》 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Views - The chemical sector has shown positive performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.4%, the ChiNext Index by 4.54%, and the CSI 300 by 1.64% during the week. The CITIC Basic Chemical Index increased by 3.49%, and the Shenwan Chemical Index rose by 2.98% [2][14] - Key sub-industries within the chemical sector have experienced varied performance, with membrane materials leading at 7.48% growth, followed by titanium dioxide at 5.85% and chlor-alkali at 4.57% [2][17] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Wanhua Chemical announced a price increase of $200/ton for MDI products in Southeast Asia and South Asia starting December 1, 2025, due to market conditions and supply stability [3] - South Korea raised anti-dumping duties on PET film imports from China, significantly increasing the tax rate on Tianjin Wanhua's products from 3.84% to 36.98% [3] Investment Themes - **Tire Sector**: Domestic tire companies are becoming increasingly competitive, with a focus on scarce growth targets. Recommended companies include Sailun Tire, Senqcia, General Motors, and Linglong Tire [4] - **Consumer Electronics**: A gradual recovery in consumer electronics is anticipated, benefiting upstream material companies. Key players in the panel supply chain include Dongcai Technology, Stik, Light Optoelectronics, and Ruile New Materials [4] - **Phosphate Chemicals**: Supply constraints due to environmental policies and increasing demand from the new energy sector are tightening the supply-demand balance. Recommended companies include Yuntianhua, Chuanheng Co., Xingfa Group, and Batian Co. [5] - **Fluorochemicals**: The reduction of production quotas for second-generation refrigerants is stabilizing profitability, with a focus on companies like Jinshi Resources and Juhua Co. [5] - **Economic Recovery**: As the economy improves, leading chemical companies are expected to benefit significantly from price and demand recovery. Recommended companies include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Baofeng Energy [9] - **Vitamin Supply Disruptions**: BASF's supply issues with vitamins A and E are expected to create market imbalances, with companies like Zhejiang Medicine and New Hecheng recommended for attention [9] Sub-Industry Reviews - **Polyurethane**: Pure MDI prices in East China rose to 19,700 RMB/ton, a 1.55% increase week-on-week, with operating rates stable at 68% [30] - **Tire Industry**: Full steel tire operating rates increased to 63.91%, while semi-steel tire rates decreased to 72.37% [54] - **Fertilizers**: Urea prices rose to 1,679.1 RMB/ton, with operating rates for urea at 86.4% [67][68] - **Vitamins**: Vitamin A prices remained stable at 63 RMB/kg, while Vitamin E prices fell by 2.88% to 50.5 RMB/kg [86][87] - **Fluorochemicals**: Fluorspar prices decreased to 3,350 RMB/ton, with a decline in operating rates to 34.12% [91]

聚丙烯：短期反弹，中期趋势仍偏弱 观点综述 1 本周PP观点：短期反弹，中期趋势仍偏弱 | | 本周国内聚丙烯产量80.68万吨，相较上周的80.83万吨减少0.15万吨，跌幅0.19%；相较去年同期的67.4万吨增加13.28万吨，涨幅19.7%。 | | --- | --- | | | 周内赛科、大港石化及巨正源等装置恢复开工，但上海石化、茂名石化等装置停车检修，聚丙烯损失量量数据窄幅走高，受此影响，产量 | | | 数据小幅下滑。 | | | 周产能利用率变化分析：本期聚丙烯平均产能利用率78.14%，环比下降0.14%；中石化产能利用率79.65%，环比下降1.59%。周内茂名 | | 供应 | 石化二线30万吨/年及上海石化三线20万吨/年等装置检修，使得中石化产能利用率下降。上海赛科25万吨/年及独山子石化老二线等装置 | | | 停车，使得聚丙烯平均产能利用率下降。 | | | 下周来看，中化泉州二线35万吨/年计划检修，东莞巨正源、天津渤化等存重启计划，计划内检修损失量预期下降。计划外检修来看， | | | 丙烷/丙烯等原料价格强势，挤占下游PP生产企业利润，聚丙烯边际装置运行压力增加，关注后 ...