1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The LL - PP spread has completed bottom - building, and the upward breakthrough of the platform is a reversal signal. This is supported by three aspects: high LPG valuation on the cost side, the largest annual production mismatch between LL and PP in June on the supply side, and the decline in PP export volume year - on - year [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cost Side - After the large - scale commissioning of PDH - made PP plants since 2022, the impact of coal - based processes on PP has gradually weakened, and LPG price fluctuations have become the most important marginal variable on the PP cost side, while the PE cost side is still dominated by crude - oil - based processes [3]. - In 2023, the low water level of the Panama Canal affected the LPG volume shipped from the US East to China. From July to September 2023, the LPG price rose from 3,800 yuan/ton to 5,660 yuan/ton (nearly 50% increase), the PP price rose from 6,900 yuan/ton to 8,100 yuan/ton (about 17% increase), and the LL - PP spread dropped from 855 yuan/ton in July to 392 yuan/ton (a decline of - 54%) [3]. - Currently, LPG valuation is much higher than that of crude oil and naphtha. Even if the OPEC+ meeting in June decides to increase production and cause the crude oil price to decline, LPG, as a high - valuation variety, should fall more, driving a greater decline in PP and ultimately widening the LL - PP spread [3]. Supply Side - According to the latest industry commissioning data, the total planned commissioning capacity of the PP09 contract is up to 3.7 million tons, with nearly 2.2 million tons in June. In contrast, LL has only 1.4 million tons of planned commissioning capacity for the whole year, and only 200,000 tons in June [12]. - Comparing the commissioning mismatch in the first half of 2023 (from May to July 2023, PP planned to commission 2.3 million tons and LL 0 tons, and the LL - PP09 contract rose from 245 yuan/ton to 800 yuan/ton), the commissioning mismatch in June this year is very similar. It is expected that the expectation of the widening LL - PP spread will start to be traded at the end of May and the beginning of June, and from July to September, the commissioning and the seasonal peak season will magnify the LL - PP spread to a high point [12]. PP Export End - In 2024, the PP export volume doubled year - on - year, with the monthly average export volume nearly doubling to 180,000 tons/month. However, this year, affected by the "tariff sanctions" policy in the US, the PP export volume has declined year - on - year, and the marginal bullish factor has failed, which supports going long on the widening LL - PP spread [14].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a neutral rating to the industry, indicating a cautious outlook on investment opportunities [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that U.S. inflation data for April has continued to cool, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 2.3% year-on-year, the lowest level since February 2021. Core CPI has also dropped to 2.8%, marking the first time it has fallen below 3% [1]. - Moody's has downgraded the U.S. credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, reflecting concerns over the worsening government deficit. The report anticipates that the federal deficit will approach 9% of GDP by 2035, with federal debt reaching 134% of GDP [2]. - The report notes that U.S. Treasury yields have risen across the board, with the 10-year and 2-year yields recorded at 4.43% and 3.99%, respectively. The yield spread between 10-year and 2-year bonds has narrowed to 44 basis points [3]. Summary by Sections U.S. Macroeconomic and Liquidity Analysis - April's inflation data shows a significant decline in prices for food, used cars, and air transportation, contributing to the overall slowdown in inflation. However, housing costs remain a major driver of inflation, accounting for over half of the CPI increase [1]. - The report emphasizes the potential lagging effects of trade tariff adjustments, which may not yet be fully reflected in the market, suggesting that future tariff increases could lead to a rebound in core commodity prices [1]. Credit Rating Actions - Moody's recent downgrade of the U.S. credit rating has intensified market concerns regarding fiscal sustainability, potentially limiting the scope for monetary policy easing. The market expects the first interest rate cut to occur in September, with an anticipated reduction of approximately 50 basis points over the year [2][3]. - The report indicates that the recent downgrade, while anticipated, may still impact risk appetite in the short term, urging investors to adopt a cautious approach towards long-duration bonds [3]. Important Events and Data - The report advises monitoring upcoming U.S. economic indicators, including April's real estate sales data, April's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), and May's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For caustic soda, in the short term, the supply pressure is limited during the concentrated maintenance period, and the demand from the alumina sector has improved. Supported by the fundamentals and positive macro - drivers from the easing of Sino - US tariffs, the spot price is strong. However, attention should be paid to the price acceptance of non - aluminum sectors and the valuation of caustic soda after the reduction of coal and electricity costs. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with the resistance level of the near - month contract at around 2550 [3]. - For PVC, stimulated by the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations, the domestic commodity atmosphere is positive. In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of PVC is limited due to concentrated maintenance, limited inventory pressure compared to the same period, and the expectation of rush exports of PVC products. But in the medium - to - long term, PVC still shows obvious over - supply pressure due to the lack of effective boost in the real estate market. It is recommended to wait and see, with the resistance level of the 09 contract at around 5150 [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda - **Caustic Soda Futures and Spot**: The price of caustic soda has fluctuated due to various factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand changes, and alumina procurement prices. Recently, the easing of Sino - US tariff conflicts and the increase in alumina procurement willingness have led to a stronger market [7]. - **Caustic Soda Profit**: The current integrated profit is at a relatively high level in the same period of the past three years [13]. - **Caustic Soda Supply**: As of May 15, the national and Shandong regional weighted average operating rates decreased. In the second quarter, more maintenance is expected, and the operating rate will decline compared to the first quarter. The inventory has decreased from the high point, and the current supply - demand pressure is limited, supporting the increase in the spot price [24]. - **Caustic Soda Device Dynamics**: Many companies in different regions have carried out maintenance or production capacity adjustments, and there are also plans for new production capacity to be put into operation in 2025 [25]. - **Alumina**: From the end of 2024 to 2025, there are plans to put into operation 1230 million tons of alumina production capacity, with an estimated annual production capacity growth rate of around 10%. The new production lines stimulate the demand for caustic soda, and Shandong alumina plants have continuously raised the purchase price, supporting the spot price of caustic soda. However, the medium - term profit of alumina is still worrying [29][36]. - **Bauxite**: The price has declined, which may further drive down the price of alumina [37]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The weekly production remains at a high level [43]. - **Non - Aluminum Downstream**: The industry is fragmented, and the impact of tariffs needs to be monitored [47]. - **Caustic Soda Export**: The spot price has risen, and the estimated export profit compression window may close [54]. 3.2 Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **PVC Futures and Spot**: The price of PVC has fluctuated due to factors such as energy - saving and carbon - reduction news, supply - demand changes, and macro - sentiment. Recently, the easing of Sino - US tariffs and the limited supply - demand contradiction during the concentrated maintenance period have led to a price rebound [61]. - **PVC Profit**: The overall industry profit is relatively low [67]. - **Calcium Carbide**: The supply - demand contradiction is prominent, the industry profit is under pressure, and the driving force for PVC is limited [72]. - **PVC Supply**: In April 2025, the production of PVC powder was 1.9264 million tons, and the cumulative production from January to April was 7.9262 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. As of May 15, the overall operating rate of PVC powder decreased. The second quarter is the concentrated period of seasonal maintenance, and the operating rate will decline compared to the first quarter [83]. - **PVC Device Dynamics**: Many companies have carried out maintenance, and there are also plans for new production capacity to be put into operation in the future [84]. - **PVC Downstream Demand**: The two major downstream sectors of PVC, profiles and pipes, face great pressure. The real estate sector still has a negative impact on demand. The hard - product performance is average, and the soft - product performance is relatively better. The downstream orders are significantly lower than the same period in the past five years, and both raw material and finished - product inventories are at high levels [92]. - **Real Estate Data**: The new construction of real estate is still weak, and attention should be paid to whether housing prices can stabilize effectively [93]. - **PVC Inventory**: After the festival, the inventory continued to decline, and the pressure compared to the same period was limited [100]. - **PVC Outer Market**: As of May 15, the Asian PVC market price was stable on a weekly basis. India's high imports are expected to continue, which theoretically benefits China's exports. However, the long - term implementation of India's BIS and anti - dumping duties will have a negative impact on PVC [118]. - **PVC Import and Export**: The US tariff has an impact on the export of terminal products. The BIS extension in India may benefit exports in the short term, but long - term policies need further attention [118].

公开信息显示，现任基金经理吴振翔先生:中国国籍,中国科学技术大学管理学博士,中国科学院数学与系 统科学院应用数学专业博士后。曾任长盛基金管理有限公司金融工程研究员、上投摩根基金管理有限公 司产品开发高级经理。2008年3月加入汇添富基金管理股份有限公司,历任产品开发高级经理、数量投资 高级分析师、基金经理助理,现任指数与量化投资部副总监。2010年2月6日至今任汇添富上证综合指数 证券投资基金的基金经理。2011年9月16日至2013年11月7日任深证300交易型开放式指数证券投资基金 的基金经理。2011年9月28日至2013年11月7日任汇添富深证300交易型开放式指数证券投资基金联接基 金的基金经理。2013年8月23日至2015年11月2日任中证金融地产交易型开放式指数证券投资基金的基金 经理。2013年8月23日至2015年11月2日任中证能源交易型开放式指数证券投资基金的基金经理。2013年 8月23日至2015年11月2日任中证医药卫生交易型开放式指数证券投资基金的基金经理。2013年8月23日 至2015年11月2日任中证主要消费交易型开放式指数证券投资基金的基金经理。2013年11月6日至今 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 10th Bio-based Conference and Exhibition aims to accelerate the integration of technological and industrial innovation in the bio-based industry, focusing on global perspectives and downstream user needs, with over 1500 industry professionals expected to attend [1]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event will take place from May 25-27 in Shanghai, featuring over 100 corporate executives and top experts led by four academicians [1]. - The conference includes three main components: industry conference, innovation exhibition, and the New Leaf Award selection and ceremony, with a total of 1 evaluation, 6 forums, 17 specialized sessions, and 4 unique matchmaking and communication meetings [1]. Group 2: Organizing Institutions - The conference is organized by the Zhejiang Bio-based Polymer Materials Key Laboratory and Ningbo Detaizhong Research Information Technology Co., Ltd. (DT New Materials), with support from various associations and innovation alliances [9][10]. Group 3: Expert Advisory Team - The advisory team includes prominent figures such as Yao Xianping, Wu Tao, Liu Dehua, and Meng Yuezhong, who are leaders in their respective fields related to chemical engineering and carbon neutrality [11][12]. Group 4: Exhibiting Companies - Notable exhibiting companies include Wanhua Chemical Group, Mitsubishi Chemical (China), and Sulzer Chemtech (Shanghai), representing leaders in the chemical and bio-based materials sectors [16][17]. - Other companies such as Hefei Lif Biotechnology and Suzhou Polywin Biotech are recognized for their contributions to the bio-based industry, focusing on products like PEF and FDCA [16]. Group 5: Attendee Information - The conference will attract a diverse range of attendees, including academicians, industry leaders, and researchers from various institutions, highlighting the collaborative nature of the bio-based sector [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the development of a new 12,000 tons/year protective para-aramid fiber project by Ningxia Taihe Aramid Fiber Co., which aims to meet the growing demand in the national defense sector for high-performance fibers, utilizing domestic equipment to overcome previous restrictions on military applications [1][2]. Group 1: Project Overview - The Ningxia Taihe Aramid Fiber Co. is planning to construct a 12,000 tons/year protective para-aramid fiber project to produce fibers primarily for national defense special protective equipment [1]. - The existing production line uses foreign equipment, which restricts the use of the produced para-aramid fibers in military applications [1]. - The new project will utilize domestic equipment, aligning with national defense needs and market demand for special fibers [1]. Group 2: Material Properties - Para-aramid fibers are characterized by high strength, with a tensile strength three times that of steel and four times that of high-strength polyester industrial yarns [1]. - The modulus of para-aramid fibers exceeds ten times that of polyamide fibers, with excellent thermal stability, maintaining 65% of original strength at 260°C [1]. - Additional properties include low density, abrasion resistance, impact resistance, flame retardancy, low thermal expansion, and excellent shock absorption and dielectric performance [1]. Group 3: Market Position - Global production of para-aramid fibers is dominated by companies such as DuPont (35,000 tons/year), Teijin (32,000 tons/year), and Kolon (7,000 tons/year), alongside domestic players like Taihe New Materials (16,000 tons/year) and Sinochem International (8,000 tons/year) [2]. - Taihe Aramid Fiber Co. was established in July 2018 and is located in the Ningdong Energy and Chemical Base, focusing on high-performance aramid fiber research and production [2]. - Taihe New Materials holds the leading position in China's aramid fiber industry, with a total capacity of 17,000 tons/year for meta-aramid and 16,000 tons/year for para-aramid fibers [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the establishment and investment plans of招商凯赛生物材料 (Zhongshan Kaisa Biochemical Materials) in the production of bio-based composite materials, highlighting its commitment to green and sustainable manufacturing practices. Group 1: Project Overview - 招商凯赛生物材料 plans to invest 468.5 million yuan in an annual production project of 41,000 tons of bio-based composite materials, which includes 20,000 tons/year of composite products, 3,000 tons/year of photovoltaic frame products, and 18,000 tons/year of construction template products. The project is scheduled to be built from April 2025 to December 2026 [1]. - The bio-based polyamide is produced from renewable biomass resources, utilizing biological, chemical, and physical methods to create monomers for synthetic polyamide, resulting in a polymer material that is green, environmentally friendly, and renewable [1]. Group 2: Company Background - 招商凯赛生物材料 was established in December 2024, funded by Shanghai Kaisa Biotechnology Co., Ltd. The company focuses on the research and production of bio-based polyamide resins for composite product processing, emphasizing the green, low-carbon, and energy-saving characteristics of its products [2]. - The company has been actively developing new materials such as bio-based long-chain polyamides and high-temperature polyamides, while also promoting innovative projects like continuous fiber-reinforced bio-based polyamide composites and the utilization of agricultural waste [2]. Group 3: Collaboration and Future Plans - In May 2024, Hefei City signed a tripartite cooperation agreement with 招商创科 and 凯赛生物 to advance the development of the bio-manufacturing industry, with a total investment of approximately 5 billion yuan planned for the project in two phases [2]. - The first phase involves an investment of 1 billion yuan, which includes the composite project and bio-based polyamide modification project, while the second phase plans to invest 4 billion yuan, focusing on further capacity expansion and collaborations with companies like 宁德时代 and 韩国3P公司 [2].

证券研究报告 | 2025年05月19日 美元债双周报（25 年第 20 周） 中性 评级下调加剧美债中长期压力 美国 4 月通胀数据再度回落，核心物价触及疫情后低点，关税影响或将滞后 显现。4 月美国通胀数据继续降温，CPI 同比增长 2.3%，为 2021 年 2 月 以来最低水平；核心 CPI 同比 2.8%，首次跌破 3%。食品、二手车和航 空运输价格显著下降，带动通胀放缓。尽管油价回落，能源分项因电力 和天然气上涨环比上升 0.7%；住房成本仍是通胀主要支撑，占 CPI 涨幅 的一半以上。结构上，超级核心 CPI（核心服务剔除住房通胀）同比降 至 3.0%，但核心服务环比略升 0.2%，显示服务类通胀黏性。商品通胀 回归正区间，同比仅增 0.1%。然而，贸易关税调整的滞后效应尚未全面 反映，企业去库存延缓成本传导，未来加征关税可能引发核心商品补涨。 穆迪下调美国信用评级至 Aa1，担忧政府赤字恶化。穆迪评级公司周五盘 后宣布将美国信用评级从最高的 Aaa 下调至 Aa1，并将评级展望从"负 面"调整为"稳定"。这一决定反映了美国政府债务与利息支付比例在 过去十多年中持续攀升，且多届政府未能就削减财政 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai 180 Growth Index declining by 0.63% to 3177.73 points, while the index has seen a slight increase of 0.87% over the past month but a decline of 1.24% over the last three months and a year-to-date decrease of 0.41% [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The Shanghai 180 Growth Index is part of a style index series that includes both growth and value indices, calculated based on growth and value factors from a sample of 60 listed companies [1] - The index has a base date of June 28, 2002, with a base point of 1000.0 [1] Group 2: Index Holdings - The top ten holdings of the Shanghai 180 Growth Index include Kweichow Moutai (10.74%), Zijin Mining (7.99%), and China Railway Shanghai (4.91%) among others [2] - The index is fully composed of stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange [2] - The industry composition of the index shows that industrials account for 21.35%, materials for 19.54%, and consumer staples for 17.34%, with technology and healthcare also represented [2] Group 3: Sample Adjustment - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [3] - The sample adjustment typically does not exceed 20%, with new samples prioritized based on their ranking [3] - In cases of delisting or corporate actions like mergers, the affected samples are removed or adjusted according to specific guidelines [3]

Group 1: Event Overview - The 17th Shanghai International Heat Exchanger and Heat Transfer Technology Exhibition will take place from June 5 to 7, showcasing new products and technologies in the heat exchanger and heat transfer sector [1][3] - The event is part of the CTEF2025 China International Chemical Equipment Expo, which will cover nine industrial sectors and feature over 1,000 brands, attracting more than 100,000 professional attendees [2][3] Group 2: Market Insights - The Chinese heat exchanger market is projected to grow from 86.89 billion yuan in 2022 to 99.21 billion yuan by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.4% [1] - The demand for heat exchangers is expanding into emerging fields such as biotechnology and pharmaceuticals, driven by the "dual carbon" strategy and industrial energy-saving needs [1] Group 3: Industry Participation - Leading companies such as Celeron, China Shipbuilding Group, and others will showcase their flagship products, highlighting the industry's new productive capabilities [3][4] - The exhibition will also feature a wide range of supporting products and components, including stainless steel heat exchange tubes and titanium plates, to meet diverse procurement needs [3][4] Group 4: Global Engagement - The exhibition aims to attract professional buyers from various countries, including Russia, Germany, Japan, and others, enhancing international collaboration [5][6] - Major Chinese companies and institutions, such as Sinopec and China National Petroleum Corporation, are expected to participate, facilitating procurement discussions and long-term strategic partnerships [6] Group 5: Additional Activities - The event will host various forums and conferences, including the China International Chemical Equipment Innovation Development Conference and the Chemical Industry Investment and Financing Summit, to foster industry dialogue and trade connections [7] - The exhibition aims to create a strategic platform for global businesses to explore market trends and connect with supply chain resources [7]