Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate sector as "Overweight" [4] Core Insights - The industry is expected to stabilize as supply decreases and quality improves, with new and old drivers working together to push the market towards a bottoming out [2] - Key cities are anticipated to find a balance in sales by 2026, although long-tail cities will continue to drag down overall performance, albeit at a reduced rate [2] Summary by Sections 2025 Industry Review - The industry faced a significant downturn in sales and investment, with actual sales area data falling below previous lower predictions due to overly optimistic expectations for third and fourth-tier cities [8] - The decline in new construction and investment was more pronounced than expected, with new construction area growth at -20.4% and completion area growth at -18.1% [10][24] 2026 Industry Outlook - The focus will be on high-quality development, with key cities expected to stabilize sales. The central economic work conference emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [7][9] - Investment growth is projected to be slow, with construction area growth expected between -5.8% and -10.2%, and corresponding investment growth between -4.0% and -12.5% [10][11] - The report predicts that the sales amount for 2026 could vary under optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic scenarios, with forecasts of 2.6%, -4.9%, and -11.4% respectively [10] Policy Focus - The main pressures on the industry will stem from investment growth challenges, with expectations for interest rate cuts and asset recovery policies to support the sector [10][11] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the implementation of policies related to interest rate reductions, asset recovery, and urban renewal [10][11] Sales and Investment Predictions - The report provides a detailed forecast for 2026, indicating that the total sales area is expected to stabilize between 7-8 billion square meters, driven by improving demand and urban renewal initiatives [44][50] - The sales amount and land acquisition trends are expected to reflect a continued focus on quality and strategic development in key urban areas [50][55]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industries Discussed**: Transportation, Real Estate, Automotive, and Industrial sectors were the main focus of the conference call [1][2]. Transportation Industry Insights - **Airline Industry Outlook**: The airline industry is experiencing an upward cycle, with supply-side disruptions continuing. Boeing and Airbus are slightly accelerating aircraft deliveries, but still slower than expected. New orders from Chinese airlines are primarily for deliveries post-2028 [3][4]. - **Engine Maintenance Impact**: Engine maintenance is expected to peak between 2026 and 2028, affecting capacity utilization. Airlines are managing capacity to maximize profits during peak seasons [5][6]. - **Spring Festival Travel**: Demand for travel during the Spring Festival is strong, with no significant drop in ticket prices expected. The first half of the travel period is anticipated to be robust, while the second half may see a slight decline in business travel due to overlapping events [6][7]. - **International Flight Pricing**: International flight prices are expected to rise due to less competition compared to domestic routes, with inflation pressures affecting foreign competitors [9][10]. - **Cost Factors**: Rising costs from international routes and engine maintenance are concerns, but low fuel prices and potential efficiency improvements may offset some of these pressures [10][11]. Real Estate Market Analysis - **Recent Trends**: There has been a slight improvement in second-hand home transactions in major cities like Shanghai and Beijing, with a notable reduction in the rate of price decline. However, this is attributed to seasonal factors and temporary policy adjustments rather than a sustainable recovery [21][23]. - **Policy Expectations**: The likelihood of significant stimulus policies for the real estate sector remains low, as the macroeconomic environment shows resilience and no immediate risks have emerged [25][26]. - **Price Forecasts**: Predictions indicate that national second-hand home prices may decline by 8% and 6% in the next two years following a 12% drop last year, with major cities potentially experiencing more significant declines [27][28]. Automotive Sector Insights - **Impact of Storage Price Increases**: The rising costs of storage components are significantly affecting vehicle production costs, with increases of $100 to $200 for fuel vehicles and $300 to $400 for electric vehicles expected by 2025 [49][50]. - **Cost Sharing Dynamics**: The burden of increased costs will depend on negotiations between automakers and suppliers, with potential for production cuts if supply issues arise [50][51]. - **Market Demand**: Current demand for vehicles remains weak, complicating the ability to raise prices despite increased production costs. Dealers, particularly for fuel vehicles, may benefit from tighter supply conditions [52][53]. Industrial Sector Outlook - **Demand Recovery**: The industrial sector is gradually recovering, driven by domestic upgrades and AI-related capital expenditures. However, demand varies significantly across sub-sectors [32][33]. - **Key Growth Areas**: The AIDC equipment sector is expected to see strong growth due to AI advancements, while sectors like chemicals and real estate-related industries are currently weak [34][35]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Companies like Dazhu Laser and Xianlead are highlighted as strong investment opportunities due to their positioning in growing markets [35][37]. Additional Insights - **Logistics and Express Delivery**: The express delivery sector is facing challenges with volume growth, but major players are still focused on maintaining market share. The potential for international expansion is seen as a growth driver [16][19]. - **Overall Market Sentiment**: The overall sentiment across industries remains cautious, with a focus on monitoring economic indicators and market dynamics closely [22][27]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and forecasts discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future expectations across the transportation, real estate, automotive, and industrial sectors.

大摩闭门会：汽车、工业、交运、房地产行业更新 260128 摘要 航空业发动机维修维护高峰期预计在 2026-2028 年，春秋航空已受影 响。春运期间票价和需求健康，预计春节期间机票不会大幅降价。国际 航线票价优于国内，但成本通胀和维修费用上升构成压力，低油价和利 用小时提升可部分抵消。 快递行业管理层预计 2026 年件量增长接近 10%，高于市场悲观预期。 头部企业如中通和圆通追求高于行业平均的增速，反内卷政策延续，利 好头部企业集中份额，优化成本结构，极兔和圆通积极拓展国际市场。 房地产市场二手房成交量改善，但主要受短期因素影响，对可持续性持 保留态度。预计 2026 年房地产政策延续温和态势，大力度刺激政策可 能性较低，高库存弱情绪下，房价或延续量价齐低态势，全国二手房价 预计继续下降。 华润万象 2026-2027 年增速放缓担忧过度，第三方商场扩张可支撑利 润增长。若利润增速 10%，2026 年股息率 5.2%，2027 年接近 6%， 股价仍有上涨空间，建议持续关注。 工业行业整体需求复苏，设备需求进入上升周期，与数据中心、储能或 机器人相关公司增长强劲。看好 AIDC 设备相关板块，受益于 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Real Estate Key Points on New and Second-hand Housing Market - New housing transaction area decreased by 9.7% month-on-month and 39.6% year-on-year across 40 cities [1] - Second-hand housing transaction area increased by 4.4% month-on-month and 18.1% year-on-year in 18 cities [1] - New housing inventory area decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 6.6% year-on-year across 12 cities, with a de-stocking cycle of 17.7 months, which is an increase of 0.8 months month-on-month and 5.5 months year-on-year [1] Land Transaction Insights - Land transaction area across 100 cities decreased by 3.1% month-on-month but increased by 0.4% year-on-year [1] - Average land price increased by 1.7% month-on-month but decreased by 15.8% year-on-year [1] - Premium rate for land transactions was 0.7%, down by 1.0 percentage points month-on-month and 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [1] Market Stability and Price Control - The core to stabilizing the real estate market lies in maintaining prices, with expectations for second-hand housing transaction volume to average between 500-600 million square meters in 2024 [2] - First-tier cities, particularly Shanghai, are experiencing unique price increases, indicating a divergence in market trends [2] - Supply-side measures are necessary to de-stock, with new project launch de-stocking rates significantly higher post-policy adjustments [2] - Demand-side policies such as effective use of housing provident funds, tax reductions, and mortgage interest deductions are suggested to boost housing consumption [2] Developer Financing and Investment Stability - Key to stabilizing real estate investment is addressing developers' financing needs [3] - Recommendations include supporting reasonable financing demands of non-state-owned enterprises and establishing a unified management system for developers' financing [3] - Emphasis on accelerating the implementation of special bond storage for affordable housing and urban renewal as a means to stabilize the market [3] - Investment suggestions highlight the importance of liquidity safety and focusing on high-capacity cities and strong product offerings among real estate companies [3] Investment Recommendations - Suggested companies to watch include China Resources, Binjiang, and Poly Real Estate, among others [4] - Emphasis on commercial real estate companies that are adapting to new consumption trends and innovative business models [3]

■重点关注 证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2026 年 1 月 28 日 | 市场指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 4139.90 | 0.18 | | 深证成指 | 14329.91 | 0.09 | | 沪深 300 | 4705.69 | (0.03) | | 中小 100 | 8725.73 | (0.20) | | 创业板指 | 3342.60 | 0.71 | | 行业表现（申万一级） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | | 电子 | 2.27 | 煤炭 | (2.27) | | 通信 | 2.15 | 农林牧渔 | (1.95) | | 国防军工 | 1.65 | 钢铁 | (1.34) | | 机械设备 | 0.64 | 美容护理 | (1.22) | | 传媒 | 0.48 | 医药生物 | (1.11) | 资料来源：万得，中银证券 中银晨会聚焦-20260128 重点关注 【宏观经济】2025 年工企利润数据点评—期待 2 ...

资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2026年01月27日 华源晨会精粹 20260127 金融工程 资金流向混债二级基金，周期和大金融占比提升——主动型公募基金 2025 年四季报分析：2025 年四季度公募基金总规模变动不大，但不同类别的基金 规模发生明显切换：投资者因追求稳健收益，资金从高波动的主动权益基金（较上 季度规模缩减 1823 亿元）和低风险的纯债基金（较上季度规模缩减 868 亿元）流出， 向中低风险的含权债基（较上季度规模增加 2398 亿元）迁移，与此同时，含权债基 的新发热度升高，发行数量创下 2020 年以来单季度新高。主动权益基金：对港股的 配置热情明显下降，显著增配周期板块。行业维度上，电子、通信、电新为重仓前 三，有色金属、基础化工和非银主动加仓最多。股债混合型基金：同样呈现出减仓 港股、加仓创业板的特征，2025 年四季度重仓股中占比最高的三个行业分别为电子、 有色和通信，主动加仓最多的行业为电子、通信和非银。含权债基：是承接资金向 中低风险迁移的重要方向，权益配置上向周期和大金融倾斜，对医药板块的减仓幅 度较大；债券方面，持续降低可转债仓位，转向利率债和信用债。纯债基金：是 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" compared to the market [2] Core Insights - New home sales in December showed a month-on-month increase of 33.6%, with a year-on-year decline of 32.1%, indicating a narrowing of the decline compared to previous months [5] - The second-hand home sales saw a year-on-year decline of 30.7% in December, with a month-on-month increase of 12.7%, reflecting a worsening trend in the second-hand market [5] - The overall inventory of new homes decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and 8.3% year-on-year, with an average de-stocking period of 17.8 months [5] Summary by Sections New Home Sales - December new home sales area increased by 33.6% month-on-month, but decreased by 32.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 6.6 percentage points [5] - For the entire year of 2025, new home sales decreased by 14%, with a year-on-year decline of 13.7% across 40 cities [5] - First-tier cities experienced a year-on-year decline of 15.8%, while second-tier and third-fourth tier cities saw declines of 12.6% and 13.6% respectively [5] Second-Hand Home Sales - December saw a year-on-year decline in second-hand home sales of 30.7%, with a month-on-month increase of 12.7% [5] - The overall second-hand home sales for 2025 decreased by 4%, with first-tier cities still showing positive growth [5] Inventory and De-stocking - The inventory of new homes decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and 8.3% year-on-year, with a de-stocking period of 17.8 months [5] - Major cities like Shanghai and Hangzhou have de-stocking periods within 12 months [5] Land Market - The land market in December showed a month-on-month increase of 126.7%, but a year-on-year decline of 8.9% [5] - The average land price was 1392 RMB per square meter, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.3% [5] Real Estate Companies - The top 100 real estate companies saw a year-on-year sales decline of 20% in 2025, with December sales showing a narrowing decline of 26.7% [5] - The land acquisition amount for December decreased by 58.1% year-on-year, while the total acquisition amount for 2025 increased by 2.6% [5] Financing - The financing scale for the real estate industry decreased in December, but showed a year-on-year increase for the entire year [5] - The total issuance of domestic and foreign bonds and ABS in 2025 was 596.7 billion RMB, a 6% increase year-on-year [5] Policy - The central government emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and reducing the value-added tax on personal home sales to 3% [5] - Local policies have been adjusted to optimize purchase restrictions and loan policies in cities like Beijing [5] Sector Performance - The real estate sector underperformed compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index in December, with an absolute return of -4.0% [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable fundamentals in core cities, smaller firms showing significant breakthroughs, and commercial real estate companies exploring new consumption scenarios [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a continued adjustment in sales, with expectations for policy effectiveness and market stabilization [3] - The importance of the real estate industry has been reaffirmed due to a stronger supportive stance from policies, as indicated by multiple articles published in early 2026 [7] - The overall allocation of public funds to the A-share real estate sector has decreased to 0.43% as of Q4 2025, marking a decline of 0.19 percentage points from Q3 2025 [5][14] - The concentration of holdings in the top ten real estate stocks has increased to 80.0%, up by 7.9 percentage points from Q3 2025, indicating a focus on development-related stocks [6][20] Summary by Sections Public Fund Allocation - As of Q4 2025, public funds' allocation to the A-share real estate sector has dropped to 0.43%, with a standard allocation ratio of 1.10%, reflecting a decrease in market confidence [5][14] - The current holding ratio relative to the standard allocation is at 39%, the lowest since 2021 [5][14] Individual Stock Focus - The top ten real estate stocks held by public funds include Beike-W, China Resources Land, and China Overseas Development, with a focus on development-related stocks [6][20] - The concentration of these top holdings indicates a strategic shift towards fewer, more stable investments within the sector [6][20] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests investing in companies with strong credit ratings and good urban fundamentals, such as Greentown China and China Overseas Development [22] - It also recommends companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, like China Resources Land and Longfor Group [22] - Additionally, it highlights quality property management firms under the "Good House, Good Service" policy, such as China Resources Mixc Life and Greentown Service [22]

瑞银发布研报称，以加权平均值计算，2025年中国物管公司盈利预计同比增10%，相对于市场预期升 12%，另较2024年及2025年上半年增长15%及12%有所放缓，相信主要是由于现金收款比率下降、增值 服务收入与利润率下滑。 在主要物业管理公司中，该行预期绿城服务(02869)表现将会领先，其次为华润万象生活(01209)、保利 物业(06049)、中海物业(02669)、万物云(02602)及碧桂园服务(06098)，当中首选华润万象生活和绿城服 务。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the profitability of Chinese property management companies is expected to increase by 10% year-on-year in 2025, which is 12% higher than market expectations, but shows a slowdown compared to growth rates of 15% and 12% in 2024 and the first half of 2025 respectively [1] - The anticipated slowdown in growth is attributed to a decline in cash collection ratios and a decrease in revenue and profit margins from value-added services [1] Group 2 - Among major property management companies, Greentown Service (02869) is expected to outperform, followed by China Resources Mixc Lifestyle (01209), Poly Property (06049), China Overseas Property (02669), Wanwu Cloud (02602), and Country Garden Services (06098) [1] - The report favors China Resources Mixc Lifestyle and Greentown Service as top picks in the sector [1]