证券研究报告|医药生物|2025年3月15日 www.hczq.com ERA | 01 | 行情回顾 | | --- | --- | | 02 | 板块观点和投资组合 | | 03 | 行业和个股事件 | 神经介入行业近况更新 本周专题联系人：李婵娟 张良龙 | 华创医药团队: | | | --- | --- | | 首席分析师 郑辰 | 执业编号：S0360520110002 邮箱：zhengchen@hcyjs.com | | 联席首席分析师 刘浩 | 执业编号：S0360520120002 邮箱：liuhao@hcyjs.com | | 医疗器械组组长 李婵娟 | 执业编号：S0360520110004 邮箱：lichanjuan@hcyjs.com | | 中药和流通组组长 高初蕾 | 执业编号：S0360524070002 邮箱：gaochulei@hcyjs.com | | 分析师 万梦蝶 | 执业编号：S0360523080008 邮箱：wanmengdie@hcyjs.com | | 分析师 王宏雨 | 执业编号：S0360523080006 邮箱：wanghongyu@hcyjs.com ...

Key Points - The article discusses various important news and updates related to the investment landscape, including new stock offerings, economic data, and government policies affecting trade and real estate [2][4][5][6][7][8][11][12][19][20]. Group 1: New Stock Offerings - Jiangnan New Materials has a new stock offering with a subscription code of 732124 and an issue price of 10.54 yuan per share, with a subscription limit of 11,500 shares [2]. Group 2: Trade Policies - The State Council Tariff Commission announced that Canada will impose a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles starting October 1, 2024, and a 25% tariff on Chinese steel and aluminum products starting October 22, 2024. In response, China will impose tariffs on Canadian canola oil, oilseed meal, and peas starting March 20, 2025, and a 25% tariff on Canadian seafood and pork [4]. Group 3: Economic Data - In February 2025, China's consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, with food and tobacco prices down by 1.9%, contributing to a 0.54 percentage point decline in CPI. The producer price index (PPI) also saw a year-on-year decrease of 2.2% [5]. Group 4: Real Estate and Urban Development - The Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development stated that all old residential areas built before 2000 will be included in urban renewal projects, with a focus on improving living conditions and community facilities [6][7]. Group 5: Corporate Announcements - Dongpeng Beverage reported a 63% increase in net profit for 2024, reaching 3.327 billion yuan, and plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.5 yuan per share [11]. - Guomai Technology announced that its AI-related technologies have not yet generated commercial revenue, and the company is still in the prototype development stage [13]. - Warner Pharmaceutical plans to invest up to 500 million yuan in a new green manufacturing base for high-end raw materials and intermediates [18]. - Nuo Cheng Jianhua presented significant clinical trial results for its treatment of psoriasis at the AAD annual meeting, showing promising efficacy and safety [19].

Market Overview - The overall sentiment in the pharmaceutical sector remains optimistic, with low valuations and public fund allocations to the sector at a low point. The industry is expected to see growth driven by macroeconomic factors and significant product demand by 2025 [7][8]. - The CITIC pharmaceutical index increased by 1.08%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.03 percentage points, ranking 18th among 30 primary sectors [4]. Key Stocks Performance - Top-performing stocks this week include: - Rejuve Bio: 34.39% - Berry Genomics: 25.72% - Anbiping: 19.90% - Aidi Pharmaceutical: 18.17% [3][4]. - Underperforming stocks include: - Jiangsu Wuzhong: -14.47% - Baili Tianheng: -12% - S*ST Longjin: -10% [4]. Investment Themes - **Innovative Drugs**: The domestic innovative drug sector is transitioning from quantity to quality, focusing on differentiated and internationalized pipelines. Companies to watch include Hengrui, BeiGene, and others [7]. - **Medical Devices**: The sector is expected to benefit from new equipment update policies, with key players like Mindray Medical and others positioned for growth [7]. - **Chinese Medicine**: The market for essential medicines is anticipated to grow, with companies like Kunming Pharmaceutical and Kangyuan Pharmaceutical highlighted for their potential [12]. - **Pharmacy Sector**: The pharmacy sector is expected to see significant growth due to prescription outflow and market optimization, with companies like YaoBai and YiFeng Pharmacy recommended for investment [12]. - **Medical Services**: The private medical sector is expected to gain competitiveness due to anti-corruption measures and the expansion of commercial insurance [12]. AED Industry Insights - The AED market is projected to grow significantly, with the global market expected to reach 161.2 billion yuan by 2028, driven by increasing cardiovascular disease rates [22]. - In China, the AED procurement amount is expected to rise from 3.95 billion yuan in 2021 to 6 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a strong growth trajectory [25]. - The domestic AED market is seeing a shift from reliance on imports to a higher domestic production rate, with the domestic market share expected to reach 79% by 2024 [27][29]. Policy Support for AED - National policies are increasingly supporting AED proliferation, with guidelines established for public spaces and healthcare facilities to ensure adequate AED availability [16][19]. - Local governments are also implementing specific policies to enhance AED distribution, such as requiring a certain number of AEDs per population in public areas [20]. Competitive Landscape - The AED market has shifted from heavy reliance on imports to a more competitive domestic landscape, with Mindray Medical leading the market with a 47.74% share [36]. - Companies like Yiyue Medical are expanding their AED offerings through acquisitions and product development, enhancing their market presence [37].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [5]. Core Viewpoints - The competitive landscape of the BTK inhibitor market is continuously changing, with BeiGene's Zanubrutinib rapidly approaching a leading market share position in the U.S. market. In 2024, the company's product revenue reached 26.994 billion yuan, a significant increase from 15.504 billion yuan in the previous year, primarily driven by sales growth of Zanubrutinib and other licensed products [2][12]. - Zanubrutinib's global sales in 2024 amounted to 18.859 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 106.4%. U.S. sales were 13.890 billion yuan, up 107.5%, largely due to expanded use in CLL indications. European sales reached 2.564 billion yuan, a 195.4% increase, while sales in China were 1.856 billion yuan, growing by 35.2% [2][12]. - The company expects revenue for 2025 to be between 35.2 billion and 38.1 billion yuan, driven by Zanubrutinib's leading position in the U.S. and ongoing expansion in Europe and other key global markets [2][12]. Summary by Sections Market Review - During the week of February 24 to February 28, 2025, the A-share pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector fell by 2.72%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.49 percentage points, while outperforming the ChiNext index by 1.74 percentage points. The sector ranked 23rd among 31 first-level sub-industries [1][17]. Company Dynamics - BeiGene's Zanubrutinib ranked first in prescription volume among new CLL patients in the U.S. market, achieving a 97% year-on-year revenue growth in Q4 2024, surpassing competitors like Ibrutinib and Acalabrutinib [3][13]. - Another domestic BTK inhibitor, Orelabrutinib from Innovent Biologics, received approval for a Phase III clinical trial in combination with a BCL-2 inhibitor for first-line CLL/SLL treatment [15]. Investment Recommendations - BTK inhibitors show significant advantages in treating B-cell malignancies and certain B-cell immune disorders, making them a hot target for blood malignancies and autoimmune diseases. The report suggests focusing on BeiGene and Innovent Biologics [4][16].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating for BeiGene [2]. Core Insights - BeiGene is positioned as a leading biopharma company in China, focusing on innovative drug development and global commercialization, with a strong pipeline and significant growth potential [3][11]. - The company is expected to achieve profitability by 2025, driven by the strong performance of its core products, particularly the BTK inhibitor, Zanubrutinib, and the PD-1 inhibitor, Tislelizumab [4][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Innovative Product Globalization - BeiGene has established a robust global presence with over 60 clinical projects and 17 commercialized products, including Zanubrutinib and Tislelizumab, which have been launched in multiple regions [3][11]. - The company aims to become the first biopharma in China to achieve recurring profitability by 2025, supported by its innovative product pipeline and global commercialization capabilities [11][20]. 2. Leadership in Hematology - The combination of BTK inhibitors, BCL-2 inhibitors, and BTK CDAC is expected to solidify BeiGene's leadership in hematological malignancies [5][27]. - Zanubrutinib is projected to double its revenue to $2.6 billion in 2024, further strengthening its market position in the U.S. hematology market [4][20]. 3. Pipeline Development - BeiGene's pipeline focuses on hematological and solid tumors, with several molecules showing best-in-class potential, including Sonrotoclax and BGB-16673 [27]. - The company has a rich pipeline with over 10 early-stage projects expected to report proof-of-concept data in 2025, enhancing its growth prospects [6][27]. 4. Financial Projections and Valuation - Revenue projections for FY25-27 are $5 billion, $6 billion, and $6.7 billion, respectively, with a CAGR of 21% [7]. - The target price is set at HK$182.35, based on a discounted cash flow model with a WACC of 9% and a perpetual growth rate of 4% [7].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating for BeiGene [2]. Core Views - BeiGene is positioned as a leading innovator in China's biopharmaceutical sector, with a strong focus on oncology treatments and a robust pipeline of over 60 clinical projects globally [3][11]. - The company is expected to achieve profitability by 2025, driven by significant revenue growth from its core products, particularly the BTK inhibitor, Zanubrutinib, which is projected to double its revenue in 2024 [4][20]. - BeiGene's global commercialization capabilities and a well-established management team are key competitive advantages that will support its growth trajectory [12][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Innovative Product Globalization - BeiGene has a diverse product pipeline and aims to become the first biopharma company to achieve consistent profitability [11]. - The company has 17 commercialized products, including Zanubrutinib and Tislelizumab, with strong sales performance in the US and Europe [20]. - Revenue for 2024 is projected at $3.81 billion, a 55% increase year-over-year, with significant contributions from the US market [20]. 2. Leadership in Hematology - The combination of BTK inhibitors and BCL-2 inhibitors is expected to solidify BeiGene's leadership in hematological malignancies [5]. - Zanubrutinib has shown superior efficacy compared to Ibrutinib, establishing its best-in-class status [5][24]. - The company is also developing Sonratoclax, a BCL-2 inhibitor, which is anticipated to enhance its market position [5]. 3. Expansion in Solid Tumors - BeiGene is actively expanding its presence in solid tumors, with Tislelizumab gaining traction in various indications [11]. - The company is developing next-generation CDK inhibitors targeting a market exceeding $10 billion [11]. - Focus areas include lung cancer and breast cancer, with ongoing clinical trials for multiple candidates [11]. 4. Financial Projections and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for FY25-27 are $5 billion, $6 billion, and $6.7 billion, respectively, with a CAGR of 21% [7]. - The net profit is expected to turn positive by FY25, reaching $390 million by FY26 [7]. - The target price is set at HK$182.35, based on a DCF model with a WACC of 9% and a perpetual growth rate of 4% [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The AI concept has experienced a pullback, but the upward momentum for innovative drugs is expected to continue [1][2] - The pharmaceutical index fell by 2.15% last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.07 percentage points, ranking 25th in industry performance [10] - The healthcare services sub-sector has shown the highest growth since the beginning of 2025, with a rise of 12.31% [16] - The report highlights the strong performance of innovative drugs and companies with positive earnings forecasts, such as Nocera Health and Newnovel [19][31] Market Performance Summary - The pharmaceutical index has increased by 4.17% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.31 percentage points, ranking 12th in industry performance [10] - The best-performing stocks in the A-share market last week included Nocera Health (+20.98%), Changyao Holdings (+20.96%), and Shanghai Yizhong (+18.78%) [19] - In the Hong Kong stock market, 30 out of 106 pharmaceutical stocks rose, accounting for 28.3% [23] Sub-industry Performance - The sub-industry with the smallest decline last week was Traditional Chinese Medicine, down 0.35%, while the largest decline was in pharmaceutical commerce, down 3.44% [14] - Year-to-date, the Traditional Chinese Medicine sub-sector has decreased by 5.29%, while healthcare services have increased by 12.31% [16] Industry News and Policies - Starting March 1, Guangxi will implement centralized procurement for large medical equipment, aiming to reduce costs through bulk purchasing [27][28] - Huadong Medicine's ADC innovative drug has received orphan drug designation from the FDA, which provides various incentives for the company [29] Company Announcements - Notable company announcements include Nocera Health's significant R&D progress and Newnovel's exclusive cooperation agreement with RadianceBiopharma, potentially worth $1.23 billion [19][31]

Market Review - The overall market sentiment for the pharmaceutical sector remains cautious, with the CITIC Pharmaceutical Index declining by 2.78%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.56 percentage points, ranking 21st among 30 primary industries [4] - The top ten stocks by growth this week include Nuo Cheng Jian Hua-U, Chang Yao Holding, and Shanghai Yi Zhong, with growth rates of 20.98%, 20.96%, and 18.78% respectively [3][4] - Conversely, the bottom ten stocks include Jiangsu Wu Zhong and Xin Gan Jiang, with declines of 4% and 6% respectively [4] Industry and Stock Events - The pharmaceutical sector's valuation is currently low, with public funds (excluding pharmaceutical funds) also underweight in this sector. The outlook for the pharmaceutical industry in 2025 remains optimistic due to macroeconomic factors such as the recovery of US Treasury yields and the driving effect of large categories and products [7] - In the innovative drug segment, there is a shift from quantity logic to quality logic, emphasizing the importance of product differentiation and internationalization. Companies to watch include Heng Rui, Bai Ji, and Nuo Cheng Jian Hua [7] - The medical device sector is expected to benefit from the acceleration of equipment renewal policies, with key companies like Mai Rui Medical and Xin Hua Medical positioned to gain from increased orders [7] - The IVD market is anticipated to return to high growth, with a focus on companies like An Tu Biology and Di Rui Medical, as domestic market penetration continues to expand [7] - The blood products sector is set for growth, with a favorable regulatory environment for plasma collection and increasing demand post-pandemic. Companies such as Tian Tan Biology and Bo Ya Biology are recommended [12] Antibiotics Industry Update - The global antibiotic market is projected to grow steadily, with a market size of approximately 98 billion yuan in China from 2017 to the third quarter of 2024. The top three hospital antibiotics in 2024 are expected to be injectable formulations of Piperacillin and Tazobactam, with sales of 4.94 billion yuan [15][16] - The production capacity for key antibiotic intermediates is under strict regulatory control, with the latest guidelines from the National Development and Reform Commission continuing to restrict new capacity in antibiotic intermediates [17] - The price trends for key antibiotic products such as Penicillin and 6-APA have shown fluctuations, with 6-APA's price reaching 320 yuan per kilogram by January 2025 [24][25]

Revenue Projections - The company expects revenue from Obinutuzumab to be approximately RMB 1,001 million in 2024, representing a growth of about 49% compared to the previous year[4]. - Total operating revenue is projected to be around RMB 1,010 million, reflecting a growth of approximately 37% year-over-year[4]. - The sales revenue of Obinutuzumab has increased by about 49% due to its coverage under medical insurance for three indications, including being the first and only BTK inhibitor approved for marginal zone lymphoma in China[6]. Net Loss Estimates - The net loss attributable to the parent company is estimated at RMB 443 million, a reduction of about 30% compared to the previous year[4]. - The net loss attributable to the parent company, after deducting non-recurring gains and losses, is expected to be around RMB 444 million, a decrease of approximately 29% year-over-year[4]. Research and Development - The company has increased its R&D investment by approximately 8.4% compared to the previous year, indicating a commitment to pipeline development[6]. Financial Stability - The company incurred an unrealized exchange loss of about RMB 33 million in 2024, which is less than the unrealized exchange loss from the previous year[6]. - The sales expense ratio has continuously decreased, enhancing the company's sustainable development capabilities[6]. - The company has not identified any significant uncertainties that would affect the accuracy of this earnings forecast[7]. Data Disclosure - The data provided is preliminary and subject to change, with the final audited financial data to be disclosed in the 2024 annual report[8].

诺诚健华医药有限公司 2024 年科创板限制性股票激励计划实施考核管理办法 诺诚健华医药有限公司（以下简称"公司"）为进一步健全公司的激励约束机 制，形成良好均衡的价值分配体系，充分调动公司员工的积极性，使其更诚信勤 勉地开展工作，以保证公司业绩稳步提升，确保公司发展战略和经营目标的实现， 公司拟实施2024年科创板限制性股票激励计划（以下简称"本激励计划"）。 为保证本激励计划的顺利实施，现根据《中华人民共和国证券法》《上市公 司股权激励管理办法》《上海证券交易所科创板股票上市规则》《科创板上市公 司自律监管指南第4号——股权激励信息披露》《香港联合交易所有限公司证券 上市规则》等有关法律、法规和规范性文件、公司章程以及本激励计划的相关规 定，并结合公司的实际情况，特制定本办法。 一、考核目的 进一步完善公司激励约束机制，保证本激励计划的顺利实施，并在最大程度 上发挥股权激励的作用，进而确保公司发展战略和经营目标的实现。 二、考核原则 考核评价必须坚持公正、公开、公平的原则，严格按照本办法和考核对象的 业绩进行评价，以实现本激励计划与激励对象工作业绩、贡献紧密结合，从而提 高公司整体业绩，实现公司与全体股东 ...