1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts and risks have a significant impact on the prices of precious metals and base metals. For example, the gold price is affected by the outbreak of geopolitical conflicts, and the copper price rises due to the fermentation of geopolitical risks [2][4][8]. - Different metals show different trends, including price increases, oscillations, and oscillations with an upward or downward bias [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: The prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot markets generally rose. For example, the daily increase of Comex gold 2602 was 1.82%, and the daily increase of London gold spot was 1.88% [4]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of some contracts increased, while the open interest decreased. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai gold 2602 increased by 25,303, and the open interest decreased by 1,496 [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The joint military strike by the US and Israel on Iran has led to a sharp escalation of the regional situation, which has a significant impact on the gold market [4]. Silver - **Price Performance**: The prices of domestic and international silver futures and spot markets generally rose. For example, the daily increase of Comex silver 2602 was 6.21%, and the daily increase of London silver spot was 6.30% [4]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of some contracts increased, while the open interest decreased. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai silver 2602 increased by 31,572, and the open interest decreased by 2,359 [4]. - **Trend**: It is in an oscillatory pattern [2]. Copper - **Price Performance**: The price of the Shanghai copper main contract rose by 1.22%, and the price of the London copper 3M electronic disk rose by 0.28%. However, the night - trading price of the Shanghai copper main contract decreased by 0.62% [8]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index increased by 79,669, and the open interest increased by 19,913. The trading volume of the London copper 3M electronic disk increased by 7,286, and the open interest decreased by 497 [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Geopolitical risks have led to a sharp escalation of the regional situation, and the supply of refined copper in December 2025 was in surplus [8]. Zinc - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract rose by 0.57%, while the closing price of the London zinc 3M electronic disk decreased by 1.74% [11]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai zinc main contract increased by 10,174, and the open interest increased by 2,112. The trading volume of the London zinc increased by 434, and the open interest decreased by 3,669 [11]. - **News**: The central bank of China adjusted the forward foreign exchange sales risk reserve ratio, and the situation in the Middle East affected shipping prices [12]. - **Trend**: It is oscillating with a upward bias [2]. Lead - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract rose by 0.27%, while the closing price of the London lead 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.96% [14]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract decreased by 6,221, and the open interest decreased by 1,080. The trading volume of the London lead decreased by 706, and the open interest decreased by 1,561 [14]. - **News**: Geopolitical conflicts have led to a significant escalation of the regional situation [15]. - **Trend**: The decrease in inventory supports the price, and the trend strength is neutral [2][14]. Tin - **Price Performance**: The prices of the Shanghai tin main contract and the London tin 3M electronic disk rose significantly. The daily increase of the Shanghai tin main contract was 8.53%, and the daily increase of the London tin 3M electronic disk was 6.74% [18]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai tin main contract increased by 227,884, and the open interest increased by 42,991. The trading volume of the London tin increased by 650, and the open interest decreased by 231 [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Geopolitical events in the Middle East have a significant impact on the tin market [20]. - **Trend**: Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - geopolitics [2]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Performance**: The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy contracts showed different trends. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased by 10, and the closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract decreased by 76 [21]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of different contracts also showed different changes [21]. - **Comprehensive News**: The situation in Iran and the adjustment of the US PPI have an impact on the market [23]. - **Trend**: Aluminum and cast aluminum alloy have a certain upward trend, while alumina is neutral [23]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price Performance**: The prices of platinum futures and spot markets generally rose, while the prices of palladium showed different trends. For example, the increase of platinum futures 2606 was 5.81%, and the increase of palladium futures 2606 was 8.09% [24]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of different contracts changed differently [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The situation in Iran and other geopolitical events have an impact on the market [27]. - **Trend**: Both platinum and palladium have a neutral trend [26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract rose by 520, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract decreased by 60 [29]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract increased by 130,488, and the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract increased by 29,790 [29]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There are various events in the nickel industry, such as the revision of the nickel ore benchmark price formula in Indonesia and the restart of nickel mines in Guatemala [29][30]. - **Trend**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a neutral trend [35].

2026年03月02日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：地缘政治冲突爆发 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡格局 | 3 | | 铜：地缘政治风险发酵，价格上涨 | 5 | | 锌：震荡偏强 | 7 | | 铅：库存减少，支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡：关注宏观地缘影响 | 10 | | 铝：关注海外断供情况 | 11 | | 氧化铝：关注交易情绪 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：小幅跟随黄金走强 | 13 | | 钯：震荡为主 | 13 | | 镍：印尼矿端现实跟进，三月警惕投机属性 | 15 | | 不锈钢：矿端矛盾边际增加，成本支撑重心上移 | 15 | | 碳酸锂：供需去库，关注市场情绪 | 17 | | 工业硅：关注市场情绪扰动 | 19 | | 多晶硅：关注现货成交情况 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：震荡反复 | 21 | | 热轧卷板：震荡反复 | 21 | | 硅铁：电费成本预期扰动，价格偏强震荡 | 23 | | 锰硅：海外远期矿价抬升，价格偏强震荡 | 23 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 焦煤：仓单扰动叠加能源属性发 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The US and Israel's joint military strike on Iran on February 28 has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which will directly impact global energy supply, inflation expectations, and the logistics pattern. Crude oil will be the most directly and severely affected commodity, and the price volatility of oil will increase sharply. The natural gas market will also face supply shortages, and the prices of chemical raw materials and downstream products will rise. The prices of copper, zinc, and lead, etc., will also increase due to supply concerns [7]. - The geopolitical situation has deteriorated over the weekend, and the short - term safety risks of the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and the Gulf of Aden remain high. The freight rates of the Middle East (Persian Gulf) and Red Sea routes may rise, and the shipping insurance rates have increased. For the container shipping industry, the impact on the European - bound routes is relatively indirect [9][144]. - The pig market shows signs of passive inventory accumulation in the off - season. The spot price is expected to remain weak in the next 1 - 2 months and may reach a new low in the past five years. Attention should be paid to the indirect impact of the macro - commodity sentiment and wait for opportunities to short on rebounds [10][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts have broken out. The prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot have shown varying degrees of increase. The trend strength is 1 [19]. - **Copper**: Geopolitical risks have fermented, and the price has risen. The production of refined copper in December 2025 showed a supply surplus. The trend strength is 1 [23]. - **Zinc**: It is in a state of oscillating and strengthening. The prices of domestic and international zinc futures and spot have changed, and the inventory has decreased. The trend strength is 1 [26]. - **Lead**: The inventory has decreased, which supports the price. The prices of domestic and international lead futures and spot have changed, and the inventory has decreased. The trend strength is 0 [29]. - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - geopolitics. The prices of domestic and international tin futures and spot have increased significantly. The trend strength is 1 [33]. - **Aluminum**: Attention should be paid to overseas supply interruption. The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy futures and spot have changed. The trend strength of aluminum and cast aluminum alloy is 1, and that of alumina is 0 [36]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Platinum shows a slight upward trend following gold, and palladium is mainly in a state of oscillation. The trend strength of both is 0 [38]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: For nickel, the actual situation of the Indonesian ore end is progressing, and speculation should be vigilant in March. For stainless steel, the contradiction at the ore end has increased marginally, and the cost support center has moved up. The trend strength of both is 0 [43]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz will directly impact the global energy supply. The price of crude oil will be affected, and the prices of downstream products such as PX, PTA, and MEG will also be affected. The trend strength of PX and PTA is 3, and that of MEG is 2 [7][76][77]. - **Rubber**: It is in a state of oscillating and strengthening. The prices of rubber futures and spot have changed, and the cost of raw materials for tires has increased. The trend strength is 1 [80]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is expected to run strongly. The prices of synthetic rubber futures and spot have changed, and the inventory has increased. The trend strength is 1 [85]. - **LLDPE and PP**: For LLDPE, the upstream supply may shrink due to increased crude oil risks. For PP, the C3 raw materials may have fluctuations, and the reduction of PDH devices continues. The trend strength of LLDPE is 1, and that of PP is 2 [89][90]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is in a state of wide - range oscillation. The price of caustic soda futures and spot has changed, and the delivery pressure is relatively large. The trend strength is 0 [95]. - **Paper Pulp**: It is in a state of oscillating and strengthening. The prices of paper pulp futures and spot have changed, and the supply and demand are in a state of game. The trend strength is 1 [99]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The prices of glass futures and spot have changed, and the demand start is relatively slow. The trend strength is 0 [104]. - **Methanol**: It is expected to run strongly. The prices of methanol futures and spot have changed, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. The trend strength is 1 [107]. - **Urea**: It is short - term strong. The prices of urea futures and spot have changed, and the inventory has increased. The trend strength is 1 [113]. - **Styrene**: It is in a state of strong oscillation. The prices of styrene futures and spot have changed, and the inventory pressure in March is not large. The trend strength is 1 [117]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The prices of soda ash futures and spot have changed, and the supply is at a high level. The trend strength is 0 [119]. - **LPG and Propylene**: For LPG, the short - term geopolitical disturbance is strong. For propylene, the cost - end geopolitical disturbance exists, and the fundamentals remain tight. The trend strength of both is 2 [124]. - **PVC**: It is short - term strong. The prices of PVC futures and spot have changed, and the cost increase supports the short - term market. The trend strength is 1 [132]. - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil is about to rise sharply, and the volatility will increase significantly. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to follow the rise. The trend strength of both is 2 [135]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: The fundamental contradictions of palm oil are limited, and attention should be paid to the impact of oil prices. Soybean oil is supported by the cost of US soybeans and operates within a range. The trend strength of both is 1 [160]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean**: The Middle East geopolitical events affect the sentiment, and they may be stable and slightly strong. The prices of soybean meal and soybean futures and spot have changed. The trend strength of both is 1 [169]. - **Corn**: It is in a state of oscillating and strengthening. The prices of corn futures and spot have changed, and the price of northern corn has risen. The trend strength is 0 [173]. - **Sugar**: The resurgence of the Middle East war has intensified the price - rising sentiment. The prices of sugar futures and spot have changed, and the global sugar supply and demand situation has changed. The trend strength is 1 [178]. - **Cotton**: It is expected to maintain a strong trend. The prices of cotton futures and spot have changed, and the spot trading is cold. The trend strength is 1 [183]. - **Eggs**: It is in a state of oscillating adjustment. The prices of egg futures and spot have changed. The trend strength is 0 [189]. - **Hogs**: In the off - season, there is passive inventory accumulation, and the fat - standard price difference will drive the market. The prices of hog futures and spot have changed, and the inventory is increasing. The trend strength is - 2 [192]. - **Peanuts**: It is in a state of oscillating operation. The prices of peanut futures and spot have changed, and the market is relatively stable. The trend strength is 0 [196]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Attention should be paid to the short - term upward risk. Short - term low - buying of 04 and 06 contracts and protecting 10 short positions are recommended. The geopolitical situation has affected the shipping market, and the freight rates of some routes may rise. The trend strength is 1 [137]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: The cost is raised by geopolitics, and they are short - term strong. The prices of short - fiber and bottle - chip futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume has increased. The trend strength of both is 1 [149]. Offset Printing Paper - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is recommended to wait and see. The prices of offset printing paper futures and spot are stable, and the market trading is slow to recover. The trend strength is 0 [153]. Pure Benzene - **Pure Benzene**: It is in a state of strong oscillation. The prices of pure benzene futures and spot have changed, and the inventory has increased. The trend strength is 1 [157].

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Core Insights - The report highlights the geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices, particularly the military actions involving the U.S. and Iran, which have led to disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz [4] - OPEC+ has confirmed an increase in oil production by 206,000 barrels per day starting in April, indicating a response to rising global demand [4] - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for January exceeded expectations, suggesting inflationary pressures in the economy [4] Economic Data Summary - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 2140.00, up by 1.09% [5] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 22668.21, down by 0.92%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 48977.92, down by 1.05% [5] - Crude oil prices (ICE Brent) increased by 2.50% to $72.52, reflecting market reactions to geopolitical events [5] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.14% to 97.64, indicating slight weakening against other currencies [5] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26630.54, up by 0.95%, showing resilience in the Hong Kong market [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4162.88, up by 0.39%, while the Shenzhen Composite Index closed at 2763.59, up by 0.30% [5]

产 业 服 务 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 03 月 02 日 铂：小幅跟随黄金走强 钯：震荡为主 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 铂钯基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | | 涨幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铂金期货2606 | 623.75 | | 5. 81% | | | | 金交所铂金 | 609. 99 | | 3.11% | | | | 纽约铂主连(前日) | 2376. 20 | | 3.97% | | | | 伦敦现货铂金(前日) | 2375. 70 | | 4. 13% | | | | 锂金期货2606 | 464. 85 | | 8. 09% | | | 价格 | 人民币现货包金 | 424. 00 | | -3.20% | | | | 纽约肥主连(前日) | 1.788.00 | | 1.02% | | | | 伦敦现货锂金(前日) | 1.784.50 | | -0. 08% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [17]. Core Insights - The report highlights that commercial aerospace policies and domestic and international industry resonance are continuously catalyzing growth. It is anticipated that low-orbit satellites will gradually achieve regular networking, and commercial rockets will accelerate breakthroughs in reusable technology [6]. - The report emphasizes the increasing importance of satellite operation services, with measurement and control becoming key components. The application of satellites across various industries is expected to become a new norm [6]. - The report also notes that regulatory measures are orderly, ecological development is progressing, and there is support from funds and accelerated IPOs, indicating ongoing positive developments in the commercial aerospace sector [6]. Industry Overview - The report provides basic industry data, including 337 listed companies with a total market value of 62,840.76 billion and a circulating market value of 56,779.44 billion [3]. - The absolute performance of the industry index shows a decline of 2.0% over the past month, an increase of 2.5% over the past six months, and a rise of 13.9% over the past year [4]. - The report mentions that the commercial aerospace sector has been included in government work reports for two consecutive years, indicating strong governmental support [6]. Market Performance - The report notes that the computer (CITIC) index rose by 1.23% during the week from February 24 to February 27, 2026, with notable gains from companies such as Runze Technology (+26.89%) and Xinghuan Technology-U (+18.30%) [6]. - The report identifies key players in various segments of the industry, including satellite manufacturing, satellite operation, rocket launch, satellite application, and ground equipment, suggesting a diversified investment approach [6].

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Falcon 9 launches 29 @Starlink satellites from Florida https://t.co/mo7yyEursa ...

Deployment of 29 @Starlink satellites confirmed ...