资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 请务必阅读免责条款 1 2026 年 3 月 3 日星期二 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 证 券 研 究 报 告 美上诉院驳回特朗普政府推迟关税退税请求 伊朗宣布关闭霍尔木兹海峡，将打击所有试图通过的船只 中东冲突引爆航运成本：油轮日租金飙至 42.4 万美元，创 历史新高 天然气飙涨近 50%，全球最大 LNG 生产商卡塔尔能源遇袭 停产 全球最佳退休养老国家排行榜：挪威蝉联第一，美国跌至第 21 位 马斯克：不必为 AI 失业焦虑 10 年内上班将全凭自愿 欧元区货币市场交易员几乎已排除欧洲央行在 2026 年降息 的可能性 1 月全国共销售彩票 552.46 亿元，同比增 13.9% 英伟达将向 Lumentum、Coherent 分别投资 20 亿美元 MINIMAX 2025 年收入同比增 158.9% 2 年期美债收益率涨 10.23 个基点报 3.475% 5 年期美债收益率涨 11.03 个基点报 3.610% 10 年期美债收益率涨 9.14 个基点报 4.036% 【经济数据】 | 重要指数 | 收市 ...

2026 年 3 月 2 日星期一 【实时热点】 证 券 研 【美国债市】 究 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 报 请务必阅读免责条款 告 1 | 内地重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 4162.88 | 0.39 | | 深证综指 | 2763.59 | 0.30 | | 沪深300 | 4710.65 | -0.34 | | 创业板指 | 3310.30 | -1.04 | 资料来源：Wind、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 美国总统特朗普：对伊朗军事行动可能持续 4 周 美以军事打击伊朗，霍尔木兹海峡航运停摆 欧佩克+确认 4 月增产石油 20.6 万桶/日 美国 1 月 PPI 超预期加速 时隔近 3 年半再次出手，央行下调外汇风险准备金率至零 证监会发布《私募投资基金信息披露监督管理办法》 造车新势力 2 月销量遇冷：零跑、理想及蔚来重回月销 2 万 辆"起跑线" 出境游价格大跳水部分线路降幅达 30% SpaceX 据悉考虑最快 3 月秘密递交美国 IPO 申请 OpenAI 宣 ...

黄金虽然没白银那么疯狂，也涨了三成多，直接冲破5500美元。然后也跟着掉头。这搁哪年哪月都算得 上大新闻，但像今年这样。连资深老炮都觉得心里发毛。 其实，别看盘面像疯了一样乱。背后的逻辑还真不难理顺。事情的导火索还得从美联储那边说起。 鲍威尔要下台的风声早就传了出去，可这次特朗普没藏着掖着，几次公开"点名批评"。让大家都琢磨他 要挑个能听话、肯配合的美联储主席。 投资者最怕的就是中央银行丧失独立性，美元要是让政治牵着鼻子走？谁还有安全感？避险情绪就这么 一下子爆表，黄金、白银顿时成了香饽饽。可光靠避险，涨幅哪有这么夸张？ 其实最猛的力量还是三大投机派系凑一块了。首先就是对冲基金，这帮人盯准了白银现货本来就紧缺 ——中国还收紧了出口通道，全球主要交易所库存捉襟见肘。 连未平仓合约都快供不上。于是就搞了个逼空，把价格往死里顶。再就是中国的散户，这会儿正赶上春 节，实物银条的价格比国际市场高了好几个点。大家抢着囤货。 还有新晋的币圈玩家，他们用高杠杆的区块链衍生品冲进来。指望市场多疯他们赚得就多狠。这三拨人 一合力，白银本来就小池塘。立马掀起大风浪。为啥白银比黄金还疯？ 其实很多人都误会了。全球白银产量虽然是黄金的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in Bitcoin has resulted in one of the largest gaps in the history of Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) futures, with momentum indicators dropping to levels typically seen only during significant downturns [1][2] Market Performance - Bitcoin has fallen over 10% from its weekend high of $84,177 to $75,947 [1] - The CME gap reflects a price discontinuity of over 8%, marking it as the fourth largest gap since the launch of Bitcoin futures in 2017 [1] - The total liquidation amount since Thursday has exceeded $5.42 billion, with a single-day liquidation record of $2.56 billion on Sunday [5] Macro Factors - The overall risk-averse environment is attributed to multiple macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, including a partial U.S. government shutdown, trade war news, rising Japanese long-term bond yields, and ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly related to Iran [1][2] Technical Analysis - The relative strength index (RSI) has dropped to 32.22, indicating extreme oversold conditions in the market [6] - Bitcoin has breached the 100-week moving average and formed a "death cross," suggesting a potential structural shift towards a more bearish market [6] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the CME gap, ranging from $77,000 to $84,000, may attract traders once volatility decreases, although it is unlikely to be filled in the immediate week due to current pressures [2][6] - The option market remains defensive, with significant buying of put options indicating that investors are paying high premiums for downside protection [8] - Analysts have set target price ranges for Bitcoin between $60,000 to $70,000, with key support identified around $68,000 to $70,000 [4][8]

【美国债市】 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读免责条款 1 证 券 美参议院未通过拨款法案 美政府再次面临部分"停摆" 特朗普：将在下周公布美国联邦储备委员会下一任主席的提 名人选 欧元区 1 月经济景气指数为 99.4 高于预期 2025 年全球黄金总需求达 5002 吨 创历史新高 培育服务消费"路线图"出炉，国办出台 12 条政策举措 工信部召开光伏行业企业家座谈会：坚决破除行业"内卷式" 竞争 北京首个人形机器人中试验证平台正式启动，预计年产能 5000 台套 2030 年前阿斯利康拟在华投资超 1000 亿元 苹果第一财季营收高于预期 马斯克的 SpaceX 据悉正在考虑与特斯拉或 xAI 合并 2026 年 1 月 30 日星期五 【实时热点】 2 年期美债收益率跌 0.60 个基点报 3.557% 5 年期美债收益率跌 0.86 个基点报 3.814% 10 年期美债收益率跌 0.59 个基点报 4.233% 【新股资讯】 | 序号 | 招股日 | 代码 | 简称 | | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the slight increase in the US GDP for the third quarter, which is above expectations, indicating a resilient economic performance [4] - The European Central Bank's meeting minutes suggest that maintaining stable interest rates for an extended period may be appropriate, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy [4] - The report mentions the potential for further reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates in China, indicating a supportive monetary stance to stimulate economic growth [4] Economic Data Summary - The Baltic Dry Index increased by 4.28% to 1803.00, indicating a positive trend in shipping rates [5] - The Nasdaq Index rose by 0.91% to 23436.02, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.63% to 49384.01, reflecting a bullish sentiment in the US stock market [5] - Crude oil prices (ICE Brent) decreased by 1.29% to $64.40, while gold prices (London Gold Spot) increased by 2.18% to $4938.35, showing mixed trends in commodity markets [5] - The US dollar index fell by 0.50% to 98.28, indicating a weakening dollar against other currencies [5] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26629.96, up by 0.17%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.14% to 4122.58, reflecting stability in the Hong Kong and mainland Chinese markets [5]

（来源：吴说） 据彭博社，随着比特币现货与期货价差持续收窄，以现货比特币 ETF 为载体的机构基差套利交易明显 降温，反映加密衍生品市场结构正在发生变化。数据显示，比特币期货在 CME Group 的未平仓合约规 模已从高点回落至 100 亿美元以下，并首次自 2023 年以来低于 Binance；这一变化主要源于基差与年 化收益率下滑、交易成本门槛抬升，削弱了 ETF-期货套利的吸引力，而非机构资金整体退出加密市 场。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the cryptocurrency market's sell-off may be nearing its bottom as the outflow of funds from spot ETFs slows down [1] - JPMorgan analysts indicate that despite recent market volatility, the holding data for Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) does not show significant deleveraging signs, suggesting that institutional investors are not making large-scale withdrawals [1] - The report suggests that if the trend of ETF outflows continues to improve, the market may stabilize and rebound in the short term, although close attention should be paid to changes in macroeconomic data [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the decline in the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum futures contracts on the CME as of December 24, with Bitcoin down 0.33% to $87,400 and Ethereum down 0.99% to $2,942.50 [1] Group 2 - CME Bitcoin futures main contract decreased by 0.33% compared to the previous day [1] - CME Ethereum futures main contract fell by 0.99% compared to the previous day [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Bitcoin and Ethereum futures have experienced a decline in their prices as of the New York close on December 23, with Bitcoin futures down by 0.75% and Ethereum futures down by 0.55% [1][2] Group 2 - The CME Bitcoin futures main contract is reported at 87,730 USD [1] - The CME Ethereum futures main contract is reported at 2,970.50 USD [1]