2025 年 8 月 26 日星期二 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 特朗普：将把药品价格下调 1400%-1500% 特朗普政府公告暗示印度即将加征 50%关税 美国政府拟将铜和钾肥等纳入关键矿产草案清单 美联储洛根：美联储仍有空间压降超额准备金 英特尔：特朗普政府持股对业务构成风险 政府持股可能升 至 15% 上海发布楼市"沪六条"：外环外符合条件不限套数 中国卫星互联网牌照发放倒计时 8 月 166 款国产游戏获批，7 款进口游戏获批 老铺黄金再涨价：2.7 万→3 万 拼多多：Q2 调整后净利 327.1 亿元 大超市场预期 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 请务必阅读免责条款 1 证 券 研 究 报 告 2 年期美债收益率涨 0.82 个基点报 3.715% 5 年期美债收益率涨 1.04 个基点报 3.780% 10 年期美债收益率涨 0.78 个基点报 4.269% 【经济数据】 | 重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | 海外市场重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

2025 年 8 月 25 日星期一 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 2 年期美债收益率跌 7.44 个基点报 3.707% 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 请务必阅读免责条款 1 证 券 研 究 报 告 鲍威尔"加入"鸽派阵营 称经济风险为降息提供更充分理由 美国政府已持有英特尔 10%的股份 特朗普宣布对家具进口展开关税调查 惠誉确认美国"AA+"评级，展望稳定 加拿大将取消对多项美国产品的报复性关税 "小额豁免"暂停前多国停发美国包裹 今年 1-7 月全国吸收外资 4673.4 亿元人民币 快递费上涨广东、浙江电商客户单价率先调价 中国光伏行业协会倡议进一步加强行业自律 特斯拉接入豆包和 DeepSeek 5 年期美债收益率跌 7.18 个基点报 3.769% 10 年期美债收益率跌 5.45 个基点报 4.261% 【新股资讯】 | 序号 | 招股日 | 代码 | 简称 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 2025-08-25 | 2580 | 奧克斯電氣 | | 资料来源：港交所、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 | | ...

Economic Indicators - US retail sales increased by 0.5% in July, below the forecast of 0.6%[4] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for August unexpectedly fell to 58.6[4] - Japan's Q2 GDP grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter and 1% year-on-year, marking five consecutive quarters of growth[4] Market Trends - The yield on 2-year US Treasury bonds rose by 1.60 basis points to 3.740%[4] - The yield on 5-year US Treasury bonds increased by 1.90 basis points to 3.834%[4] - The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds climbed by 3.11 basis points to 4.318%[4] Commodity and Index Performance - The price of Brent crude oil decreased by 1.06% to $66.13[5] - The Baltic Dry Index rose by 0.25% to 2044.00[5] - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.98% to 25270.07[5] Industry Developments - The US announced an expansion of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports[4] - China's coal consumption ratio decreased from 56.8% in 2020 to an estimated 53.2% in 2024[4] - Photovoltaic component prices are rising, with quotes reaching 0.7 yuan/W for leading manufacturers[4]

Economic Data - The U.S. trade deficit in June narrowed to $86 billion, a decrease from previous figures[4] - India's preparation for potential U.S. tariffs ranging from 20% to 25% indicates significant trade tensions[4] - The IMF has raised China's economic growth forecast for this year by 0.8 percentage points[4] Market Performance - The average daily trading volume in Hong Kong's stock market increased by 118% year-on-year in the first half of the year[4] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 5.66 basis points to 3.867%[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 8.75 basis points to 4.322%[4] Index Movements - The Nasdaq index closed at 21,098.29, down 0.38%[5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 44,632.99, down 0.46%[5] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,524.45, down 0.15%[5]

Group 1 - The core logic of reversal trading is based on extreme emotions acting as value inflection points, where market sentiment reaches extremes leading to significant price deviations from intrinsic value, creating "cognitive arbitrage opportunities" [1] - Reversal trading differs from trend-following strategies by capturing the return to consensus, as seen in instances like the violent rebound of oil futures after they fell to negative values in 2020 [1] Group 2 - The extreme emotion identification system includes quantitative indicators for buy and sell signals based on valuation metrics, such as PB below the historical 10th percentile for buying and PE above the historical 90th percentile for selling [2] - Additional signals include liquidity metrics, where a 60%+ reduction in financing balance and VIX above 40 indicate buying opportunities during extreme pessimism, while a daily turnover rate above 10% signals selling during extreme optimism [2] Group 3 - Confirmation tools for extreme emotions involve assessing whether valuations deviate from fundamentals, and if liquidity crises exist, which would trigger buying signals [3] - In the case of the Hong Kong stock market in October 2022, the Hang Seng Index had a PB of 0.8, indicating a 10-year low, combined with record net buying from the Stock Connect, confirming a reversal buy point [4] Group 4 - The golden window for reversal trading indicates that the speed of recovery from pessimism is greater than the dissolution of optimism, as evidenced by historical events like the tech bubble burst in 2000 [4] - Three types of reversal strategies are identified: long positions after extreme pessimism, short positions after extreme optimism, and specific patterns like emotional mispricing and cyclical stock rebounds [4][5] Group 5 - The characteristics of targets for reversal trading include industry leaders with stable free cash flow and high ROE, which may be indiscriminately sold due to macro risks [5] - High-risk strategies involve leveraging positions in companies facing downgrades and significant price drops due to forced liquidations, necessitating day trading to capitalize on panic selling [5][6] Group 6 - Risk control mechanisms include avoiding value traps, ensuring companies have a net debt ratio below 50%, and being cautious of market trends and liquidity issues [6][7] - The essence of reversal trading lies in identifying collective market errors at extreme moments, emphasizing the importance of rationality and discipline in decision-making [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a decline in Bitcoin and Ethereum futures, indicating a bearish trend in the cryptocurrency market for the week ending June 20, with significant drops observed in both assets [1]. Group 1: Bitcoin Futures - CME Bitcoin futures main contract fell by 0.80% to $103,000, with a cumulative decline of 2.09% over the week [1]. - The price fluctuations included a rise early in the week followed by a notable drop on Friday after the U.S. stock market opened [1]. Group 2: Ethereum Futures - CME Ethereum futures main contract decreased by 3.86% to $2,400.50, accumulating a total decline of 5.61% for the week [1].

Economic Data - The US May core PPI increased by 3% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month, both below expectations[4] - Initial jobless claims in the US last week were 248,000, exceeding expectations[4] - The US Department of Commerce announced tariffs on various steel household appliances starting June 23[4] - May maritime imports in the US saw a significant decline[4] Market Performance - The 2-year US Treasury yield fell by 5 basis points to 3.897%[4] - The 5-year US Treasury yield decreased by 5.6 basis points to 3.961%[4] - The 10-year US Treasury yield dropped by 6.11 basis points to 4.359%[4] - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 1738.00, up 3.45%[5] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 19662.48, up 0.24%[5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 42967.62, up 0.24%[5] - The S&P 500 closed at 6045.26, up 0.38%[5] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24035.38, down 1.36%[5]

Market Performance - The Nasdaq led the three major U.S. stock indices, with the S&P 500 rising for the third consecutive day as investors awaited signals from U.S.-China trade negotiations [1] - As of the market close, the Dow Jones increased by 105.11 points (0.25%) to 42,866.87 points, the Nasdaq rose by 123.75 points (0.63%) to 19,714.99 points, and the S&P 500 gained 32.93 points (0.55%) to 6,038.81 points [1] - Notable stock movements included Tesla (TSLA.US) up 5.67%, Google (GOOGL.US) up 1.44%, and Meta Platforms (META.US) up 1.20% [1] Currency and Commodities - The ICE U.S. Dollar Index rose by 0.15% to 99.085 points, while the Bloomberg Dollar Index increased by 0.13% to 1,210.98 points [2] - Gold prices fell slightly, with spot gold down 0.10% to $3,222.71 per ounce and COMEX gold futures down 0.31% to $3,344.40 per ounce [2] - WTI crude oil futures decreased by $0.31 (over 0.47%) to $64.98 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures fell by $0.17 (over 0.25%) to $66.87 per barrel [2] Company News - Meta (META.US) is establishing a new AI research lab and is reportedly in talks to invest over $10 billion in Scale AI to enhance its strategic positioning in the AI sector [7] - GameStop (GME.US) faced a stock price decline despite reporting its fourth consecutive profitable quarter, as Q1 revenue fell short of Wall Street expectations, dropping 17% year-over-year from $88.18 million to $73.24 million [7] Economic Outlook - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) indicated that the U.S. government may run out of funds to meet all obligations between mid-August and the end of September if the debt ceiling remains unchanged [3] - The World Bank downgraded its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 2.3%, citing trade tensions and policy uncertainties as significant factors [3]

周一（6月9日）纽约尾盘，CME比特币期货BTC主力合约较上周五纽约尾盘涨4.36%，报10.9万美元。 CME以太币期货DCR主力合约涨3.62%，报2605.00美元。 ...

莫斯科交易所为合格投资者推出比特币期货交易。 （塔斯社） ...