Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View - The supply - side disturbances in the copper market limit the price decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 105,160 with a daily increase of 0.63%, and the night - session closing price was 102,590 with a decline of 2.44%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 13,040 with a decline of 2.76% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 471,921, a decrease of 274,488 from the previous day, and the open interest was 617,249, an increase of 11,759. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 26,322, a decrease of 12,365, and the open interest was 322,000, an increase of 6,542 [1]. - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 159,772, an increase of 751, and the LME Copper inventory was 178,650, an increase of 2,525. The LME Copper注销仓单 ratio was 12.83%, a decrease of 8.22% [1]. - **Spreads**: The LME Copper cash - to - 3M spread was - 64.25, a decrease of 5.08 from the previous day. The Shanghai 1 bright copper price was 89,900, an increase of 1,000. The spot - to - near - month futures spread was - 100, an increase of 20 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: The US ISM manufacturing index in January rose to 52.6, the highest since 2022, significantly higher than market expectations. President Trump urged the House Republicans to cooperate with the Democrats to reopen the federal government [1]. - **Industry**: Chile's copper production in December 2025 decreased by 4.7% year - on - year to 540,221 tons. Capstone Copper resumed the operation of the Mantoverde copper - gold mine in northern Chile. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to include "copper concentrate" in the national reserve. Glencore Canada suspended major investment in the Horne smelter in Quebec and reduced investment in the copper refinery in the medium term [1][3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral stance, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval [3].

Group 1 - Alphabet's Q4 revenue reached $113.83 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18%, with Google Cloud revenue at $17.66 billion, up 48% [2] - Nvidia plans to invest $20 billion in OpenAI, potentially its largest single investment, and aims to participate in another funding round before OpenAI's IPO [2] - Eli Lilly reported Q4 revenue of $19.292 billion, a 43% increase year-on-year, with net profit rising 50% to $6.636 billion [2] Group 2 - Alibaba's Jack Ma was seen at the company's headquarters focusing on AI business development, raising market interest in Alibaba's AI strategy [4] - JinkoSolar announced a stock price deviation of 30% over three trading days, clarifying that it has no undisclosed major information and remains focused on ground photovoltaic business [4] - China Shipbuilding Defense signed contracts for 16 box ship constructions valued between $736 million and $896 million, indicating strong competitiveness in shipbuilding [4] Group 3 - Yum China reported Q4 revenue of $2.82 billion, an 8.8% year-on-year increase, with adjusted EPS at $0.4, up from $0.3 [5] - Hong Kong Stock Exchange's CEO stated that the IPO market is not facing a "logjam," with sufficient funds available for new listings [5] - TSMC plans to produce 3nm chips in Kumamoto, Japan, enhancing its global competitiveness in advanced manufacturing [6] Group 4 - Apple partnered with Alphabet to use it as its preferred cloud service provider, with plans to release new products in 2026 [8] - Amazon's AI assistant Alexa+ is now available to all U.S. users, with plans to invest in OpenAI and accelerate film production using AI [8] - Tesla's Shanghai factory delivered 69,129 vehicles in January, a 9% year-on-year increase, despite a significant drop in sales in the UK market [8] Group 5 - Samsung Electronics' market value surpassed 1 trillion KRW (approximately $688 billion), benefiting from a super cycle in memory chips [11] - Toyota raised its global vehicle production target for 2028 to 11.3 million units, a 10% increase from 2026 [11] - SK Hynix announced record performance bonuses for employees, reflecting strong market conditions and rising NAND prices [11] Group 6 - Amundi plans to reduce exposure to U.S. dollar assets due to concerns over U.S. policy changes, suggesting a shift towards European and emerging markets [14] - Nestlé's CEO plans to restructure the company, focusing on core businesses and divesting non-core assets to boost growth [14] - BMW Group announced plans to launch around 20 new models by 2026, emphasizing electric vehicle development and partnerships [14]

Group 1 - The global mining merger and acquisition activity is increasing, with Chinese mining companies notably expanding their presence through acquisitions of quality non-ferrous mineral resources [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum has made two significant acquisitions in gold assets within eight months, including the purchase of Lumina Gold and a 100% stake in three Brazilian gold mines from Equinox Gold Corp, adding a total of 501.3 million ounces of gold resources [1] - Zijin Mining announced a record acquisition of Canadian United Gold for CAD 5.5 billion, while Shengda Resources completed a cash acquisition of a 60% stake in Yichun Jinshi Mining for CNY 500 million [1] Group 2 - Non-ferrous mineral prices are at high levels, driving record profits for leading mining companies; Luoyang Molybdenum expects a net profit of CNY 20 billion to CNY 20.8 billion for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 47.8% to 53.7% [2] - Zijin Mining anticipates a net profit of CNY 51 billion to CNY 52 billion for the same period, with a year-on-year growth of 59% to 62%, benefiting from rising prices and production volumes of core mineral products [2] - The global mining industry is consolidating, with Rio Tinto and Glencore in preliminary talks to create the largest mining company to expand copper production, and Anglo American and Teck Resources initiating a merger to rank among the top five copper mining companies [2]

Core Viewpoint - Rio Tinto is advocating for its chair and CEO to maintain their positions in any potential merger with Glencore, while Glencore is seeking a significant premium in the negotiations [1] Group 1 - Rio Tinto's leadership is pushing for continuity in management roles during merger discussions with Glencore [1] - Glencore is demanding a substantial premium as part of the merger negotiations [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices experienced a significant surge following Indonesia's announcement to reduce ore production by one-third in 2026, but analysts advise caution due to past unfulfilled commitments by the government [1][2]. Group 1: Indonesia's Production Cuts - Indonesia plans to cut nickel ore production by 34% from 2025's output of 379 million tonnes, which could impact over 60% of the global mined supply [1]. - The government's intention behind the cuts is to support global nickel prices and safeguard tax revenues from its mining and export sector [2]. Group 2: Analyst Perspectives - Analysts at Panmure Liberum express skepticism, noting that previous announcements for production cuts did not materialize, indicating a need for tangible evidence before making investment decisions [2][3]. - Despite the proposed cuts being substantial, the lack of follow-through on earlier pledges has led to a cautious outlook among analysts [3]. Group 3: Market Implications - A genuine reduction in Indonesian ore supply could tighten the global nickel market, especially as other major producers like BHP, Anglo American, and Glencore are also scaling back their output [4]. - Panmure Liberum has not revised its official forecasts but has outlined a scenario reflecting the potential impact of a 34% production cut, emphasizing the need to monitor the situation for actual policy implementation [4].

Core Insights - Glencore has agreed to sell a 40% stake in its copper and cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to a U.S. government-backed consortium, highlighting the strategic appeal of its mining operations [1] Group 1: Transaction Details - The stake is being sold in two DRC assets, Mutanda Mining and Kamoto Copper, to a consortium led by U.K. private-equity firm Orion Resource Partners, which includes the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation [1] - Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth fund ADQ is also a partner in this transaction [1] Group 2: Strategic Implications - The sale may not only provide financial benefits but could also lower the risk premium associated with Glencore's mining operations due to the perceived backing from the U.S. government [1] - This deal reflects a new era of resource nationalism, indicating a shift in how mining assets are valued and perceived in the market [1]

(Bloomberg) — Copper (HG=F) slipped after its biggest one-day advance in more than three years, with investors shifting their focus back to the outlook for Chinese demand after a wild ride for the key industrial metal. Prices traded lower by mid-morning in London, after surging 4.6% on Tuesday for the biggest gain since November 2022. Base and precious metals have faced extreme volatility this year, with gold and silver rallying on Wednesday after a steep drop earlier in the week as investors rapidly unwo ...

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