政策持续放松，二手房环比回暖 ——20260116 房地产行业周报 房地产 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2026 年 01 月 25 日 | 评级： | 增持（维持） | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：由子沛 | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | 执业证书编号：S0740523020005 | | 保利发展 | 6.71 | 1.01 | 0.42 | 0.46 | 0.51 | 0.54 | 6.6 | 16.0 | 14.6 | 13.2 | 12.4 | 买入 | | Email：youzp@zts.com.cn | | 招商 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and service sectors [6] Core Insights - The real estate sector is experiencing a significant reduction in holdings, with public funds and northbound capital reaching new lows in their investment proportions. The market is currently stabilizing, with a focus on recovery in core cities, particularly first-tier cities [1][2] - Recommended investment opportunities include companies with strong credit, urban presence, and product quality, as well as those with robust operational capabilities to manage cash flow during market adjustments [1] - The report highlights a shift in holdings concentration, with Beike rising to the top position among public fund holdings, indicating a narrowing of investor divergence in the sector [3] Summary by Sections Public Fund Holdings - As of Q4 2025, the total market value of public fund holdings in the real estate sector was 38.8 billion yuan, a 31% decrease quarter-on-quarter. The sector's holdings accounted for 0.43% of total stock investments, down 0.19 percentage points [2] - The real estate sector index fell by 8.9%, ranking 30th out of 31 sectors, primarily due to declining fundamentals and some companies hitting new stock price lows [2] Northbound Capital - Northbound capital's total holdings in real estate stocks were 11.5 billion yuan, a 17% decrease quarter-on-quarter, representing 0.45% of total northbound holdings [4] - The top five real estate stocks held by northbound capital include China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and others, with notable increases in holdings for companies with "real estate+" attributes [4] Recommended Companies - Key recommended companies include: - Yuexiu Property (123 HK) with a target price of 7.06 HKD and a "Buy" rating [8] - Longfor Group (960 HK) with a target price of 15.21 HKD and a "Buy" rating [8] - Greentown Service (2869 HK) with a target price of 6.56 HKD and a "Buy" rating [8] - China Overseas Development (688 HK) with a target price of 19.08 HKD and a "Buy" rating [8] - China Merchants Shekou (001979 CH) with a target price of 12.79 CNY and a "Buy" rating [8] - CR Land (1109 HK) with a target price of 36.45 HKD and a "Buy" rating [8] - Others include companies like Greenland China, and Hong Kong local firms benefiting from market recovery [1][8] Performance Insights - Beike's market value increased significantly, reflecting a strong investor interest, while other companies like Poly Developments and China Merchants Shekou saw reductions in their holdings [3][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of operational efficiency and cash flow management for companies navigating the current market challenges [1][3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights significant adjustments in fund managers' portfolios, indicating a generally optimistic outlook for the market [1] Group 2 - Fund manager Fu Pengbo increased the equity investment in the Ruiyuan Growth Value Mixed Fund to 90.48% of total assets by the end of 2025, up from 89.93% at the end of the third quarter [2] - The top ten holdings now account for 70.38% of the fund's net asset value, an increase of 4.34 percentage points from 66.04% in the previous quarter [2] - Notably, China Mobile has exited the top ten holdings, replaced by high-performing companies in the photovoltaic and semiconductor equipment sectors [2] - Fu Pengbo is preparing for 2026 by reducing positions in companies with weak fundamentals and increasing investments in data center liquid cooling, storage, and computing-related companies [3] - Fu Pengbo remains optimistic about sectors like AI, non-ferrous metals, and lithium battery materials, expecting high growth in these areas [3] Group 3 - Fund manager Zhao Feng's Ruiyuan Balanced Value Three-Year Holding Mixed Fund maintains a high equity investment ratio of 90.66% [4] - Zhao Feng has reduced positions in overvalued stocks while increasing holdings in quality leading companies with lower valuations [4] - The expected static return from cash flow-rich companies is around 5%, with potential growth leading to returns exceeding 10% for some leading firms [4] - Zhao Feng emphasizes the importance of domestic leading companies expanding overseas, transitioning from simple exports to local manufacturing and services [5] - These companies are expected to see significant revenue growth from overseas markets over the next five to ten years, driven by improved service and brand recognition [5] Group 4 - Fund manager Yang Jinjing has made substantial adjustments in the Jiao Yin Shi Luo De Rui Yuan Three-Year Regular Open Mixed Fund, increasing exposure to cyclical sectors [6] - New additions to the top ten holdings include several airline stocks, while multiple power sector stocks have exited [6] - Yang Jinjing is focusing on industry leaders that are experiencing or about to experience turning points, estimating that only 20%-30% of these leaders will emerge early from the downturn [6][7] - The expectation is that industry leaders will achieve long-term turning points through competitive advantages, leading to profit upgrades and valuation increases [7]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the overall performance of covered mainland property management companies is expected to meet expectations, with profit growth in the low single digits, but increasing differentiation among companies [1][2] Group 1: Profit Growth Expectations - Greentown Service (02869) and China Resources Mixc Lifestyle (01209) are expected to achieve the highest profit growth, with a year-on-year increase of 10% to 15% [1] - Poly Property (06049) and China Overseas Property (02669) are projected to have mid-single-digit growth [1] - Sunac Services (01516) may continue to face a decline in core profits due to issues with receivables from past projects and non-core business burdens [1] Group 2: Cash Collection and Market Dynamics - Leading companies continue to benefit from third-party market consolidation, but weak cash collection remains a major obstacle [2] - Despite intensified competition, most property management companies have achieved their annual expansion goals, highlighting significant long-term market potential [2] - The cash collection ratio decreased by 1 to 2 percentage points year-on-year due to reduced resident prepayments and an increase in the proportion of high vacancy projects delivered after 2022 [2] Group 3: Profitability and Cash Flow - Short-term profit margins for mainland property management and service companies remain under pressure [2] - Leading project management companies are expected to exit low-quality and non-core projects to optimize their business portfolios, maintaining annual operating cash flow at around 1 times profit [2] - The reduction of third-party receivables continues to be a key driver of profit differentiation among property management companies [2]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the overall performance of covered mainland property management companies is expected to meet expectations, with profit growth projected to be in the low single digits, but with increasing differentiation among companies [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Greentown Service (02869) and China Resources Mixc Lifestyle (01209) are expected to achieve the highest profit growth, with a year-on-year increase of 10% to 15% [1] - Poly Property (06049) and China Overseas Property (02669) are anticipated to have median growth rates [1] - Sunac Services (01516) may continue to face a decline in core profits due to issues with receivables from past projects and non-core business drag [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Leading companies continue to benefit from third-party market consolidation, although weak cash collection remains a major obstacle [1] - Despite intensified competition, most property management companies have achieved their annual expansion targets, highlighting significant long-term market potential [1] - The cash collection ratio declined by 1 to 2 percentage points year-on-year due to reduced resident prepayments and an increase in the proportion of high vacancy projects delivered after 2022 [1] Group 3: Profitability and Cash Flow - Short-term profit margins for mainland property management and service companies remain under pressure [1] - Leading project management companies are expected to exit low-quality and non-core projects to optimize their business portfolios, maintaining annual operating cash flow at around one times profit [1] - The ongoing reduction of third-party receivables continues to be a key driver of profit differentiation among property management companies [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The real estate sector has shown a strong start in 2026, with stock price rebounds attributed to overall market risk appetite and valuation increases, recent policy optimizations in Beijing, and a decline in personal housing sales tax rates [3] - The report suggests three main investment lines: companies with light historical burdens and strong product capabilities, Hong Kong real estate benefiting from market stabilization, and firms with stable cash flow and dividends [3] - The policy outlook for 2026 remains optimistic, with expectations for further adjustments in housing loan rates and other supportive measures [4][6] Policy Summary - Recent policies include a reduction in the personal housing sales tax for properties held for over two years, the introduction of commercial real estate REITs, and tax refunds for individuals selling their homes and purchasing new ones within a year [5][6] - The central bank has lowered various structural monetary policy tool rates by 0.25 percentage points, which is expected to reduce housing purchase costs [6][7] Market Conditions - January 2026 saw improved transaction volumes compared to December 2025, with second-hand housing performing better than new homes [17][20] - The average daily transaction volume for new homes in 50 key cities decreased by 27.9% year-on-year in January, while second-hand homes saw a 2.1% increase [20] Land Market - Land transaction volumes increased significantly in December 2025, with a 152.7% rise in transaction area compared to the previous month, although the average land supply decreased by 60.1% [30] Company Performance - The top 100 real estate companies saw a 3.9% increase in land acquisition amounts in 2025, with notable companies like Greentown China and China Jinmao leading in land acquisition intensity [38][42] - The report highlights that the real estate sector's PE ratio is currently at 62.47, significantly higher than the broader market's 14.17, indicating a high valuation level [46]

Core Viewpoint - Ruiyuan Fund disclosed its Q4 2025 report, indicating strategic adjustments in its portfolio, including increased positions in specific sectors while reducing exposure to others, reflecting a proactive approach to investment management [1][3]. Group 1: Portfolio Adjustments - The Ruiyuan Growth Value Mixed Fund increased its holdings in Cambricon (688256.SH) while reducing positions in Xinyisheng (300502.SZ), Alibaba-W (09988), and Dongshan Precision (002384.SZ) [1]. - The top ten holdings saw a shift away from telecommunications stocks, replaced by solar energy and high-end semiconductor equipment manufacturers, indicating a focus on sectors with strong performance in Q4 [1]. - The fund aims to minimize investment uncertainties in Q1 2026 while maintaining a focus on prominent sectors and stocks [1]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - As of the report's end, the net asset value per share of Ruiyuan Growth Value Mixed A Fund was 1.9685 yuan, with a growth rate of 0.57%, underperforming its benchmark by 1.37% [2]. - The net asset value per share of Ruiyuan Growth Value Mixed C Fund was 1.9159 yuan, with a growth rate of 0.47%, also underperforming its benchmark by 1.37% [2]. Group 3: Future Strategy - The fund managers, Fu Pengbo and Zhu Lin, prepared for 2026 by reducing holdings in companies with weak fundamentals and increasing investments in data center liquid cooling and computing power-related companies, based on industry trends and individual stock research [3]. - Ruiyuan's other fund, managed by Zhao Feng, has reached its highest stock position in three years, reintroducing holdings in Midea Group (000333.SZ) and other companies while reducing exposure to certain stocks [3]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Zhao Feng noted a favorable macroeconomic cycle for equity assets, with expectations of improved corporate earnings quality as China gradually moves out of deflationary expectations [4]. - The focus will remain on companies with solid fundamentals and strong competitive barriers, aiming for excess returns through structural allocation [4]. - Attention is directed towards domestic leading companies expanding overseas, which are expected to drive performance growth through enhanced product quality and brand recognition over the next five to ten years [4].

业绩方面，截至报告期末睿远成长价值混合A基金份额净值为1.9685元，报告期内，该类基金份额净值增长率为0.57%，同期业绩比 较基准收益率为-1.37%；截至报告期末睿远成长价值混合C基金份额净值为1.9159元，报告期内，该类基金份额净值增长率为 0.47%，同期业绩比较基准收益率为-1.37%。 傅鹏博和朱璘在季报中表示，为2026年的组合搭建做了准备：一方面，减持了基本面趋势偏弱的公司，降低了其对组合净值可能带 来的负面影响；另一方面，增加了数据中心液冷、存力和算力的相关公司，主要是基于对行业发展态势，以及个股跟踪研究后的选 择。对于上一年重点配置的光模块、PCB材料、芯片、数据中心液冷等板块和个股，持续看好其未来的发展，2026年将进一步加大 研究力度。 近日，睿远基金披露2025年四季报。在2025年四季度期间，傅鹏博和朱璘管理的睿远成长价值混合基金加仓了寒武纪(688256.SH)， 新易盛(300502.SZ)、阿里巴巴-W(09988)、东山精密(002384.SZ)等个股则遭其减仓。从前十大持仓来看，较为明显的变化是移动运营 商个股配置不在前十行列，取而代之的是四季度表现突出的光伏和半导体 ...

Group 1: Convertible Bond Market - The convertible bond market valuation is at a historical extreme level, with a pricing deviation indicator of 12.83% as of January 16, 2026, placing it in the 99.9th percentile since 2018 and 2021 [5][6] - The short-term drivers for the elevated valuation include a strong performance in the equity market, which has led to rising convertible bond prices and premium rates, and an influx of funds driven by demand for rights assets [5] - The current valuation is considered high, increasing systemic vulnerability, and investors are advised to be cautious and avoid high-priced and high-premium varieties, focusing instead on the sustainability of the underlying stock fundamentals [5][6] Group 2: Electric Power Equipment Industry - The electric power equipment sector is projected to focus on AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) and electricity shortages as core investment themes for 2026 [7][8] - The sector has outperformed the market, with a cumulative increase of 33.6% compared to a 17.7% rise in the CSI 300 index as of December 31, 2025 [8] - Investment recommendations include companies like Zhongheng Electric, Kehua Data, and Keda, which are expected to benefit from the growing demand for HVDC (High Voltage Direct Current) solutions and the global electricity construction backdrop [8] Group 3: Real Estate Market - The real estate market is experiencing a decline, with new home sales down 12.6% year-on-year, and related development investment indicators showing accelerated declines [9] - Predictions for 2026 include a 10% decrease in new construction area to 530 million square meters and a 10.9% drop in real estate development investment to 7.57 trillion yuan [9] - The report maintains an "overweight" rating for the sector, emphasizing the importance of policy support and the potential for recovery in specific urban markets, particularly first-tier and select second-tier cities [9] Group 4: Textile and Apparel Industry - Chow Tai Fook reported a 17.8% year-on-year increase in retail value for FY2026 Q3, indicating strong same-store sales growth [11][13] - The company is focusing on optimizing product design and channel operations, which is expected to enhance consumer engagement [13] - Profit forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 project net profits of 7.575 billion, 8.559 billion, and 9.646 billion HKD respectively, with a PE ratio of 18 times for FY2026, maintaining a "buy" rating [13]

Core Insights - The real estate market continues to face downward pressure, with all 70 cities experiencing a decline in second-hand housing prices for four consecutive months, indicating a "catch-up" phenomenon in first-tier cities [9][19] - The average year-on-year decline in new housing prices across 70 cities in 2025 was 3.8%, which is less than the 4.5% decline in 2024, marking three consecutive years of decline [4][12] - The average year-on-year decline in second-hand housing prices was 6.3% in 2025, also less than the 7.4% decline in 2024, indicating a persistent downward trend for four years [4][12] Real Estate Market Performance - In December 2025, new home prices in 70 major cities fell by 0.4% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices decreased by 0.7%, maintaining the same rate of decline as in November [4][12] - The total sales area in December was 93.99 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 15.6%, showing a slight improvement from the previous month's decline of 17.3% [12][13] - The total investment in real estate development in December was 419.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 35.8%, marking the largest single-month decline since 2000 [16][19] Housing Price Trends - In first-tier cities, new home prices fell by 0.3% month-on-month in December, with Shanghai showing a slight increase of 0.2%, while Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou experienced varying declines [5][9] - The average year-on-year decline in new home prices in first-tier cities was 1.8% in 2025, a reduction of 1.4 percentage points compared to 2024 [5][9] - Second-hand home prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.9% month-on-month in December, with an average year-on-year decline of 4.2% [5][9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines: stable companies with high sales and land reserve ratios in core cities, smaller companies that have made significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition since 2024, and commercial real estate companies exploring new consumption scenarios [10][20] - Companies such as China Resources Land, Binjiang Group, and China Merchants Shekou are highlighted for their strong market positions [10][20] - The report anticipates potential policy adjustments by the end of Q1 2026, which could help stabilize the market [9][19]