行 华福证券 社会服务 2026 年 01 月 23 日 业 研 究 社会服务 关注服务消费结构性机会，及春节旺季珠宝行情 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 文旅：元旦假期出行链数据超预期。海南离岛免税方面，元旦假期期 间，海口海关共监管离岛免税商品销售 44.2 万件，同比增长 52.4%；购物 人数 8.35 万人次，同比增长 60.6%；购物金额 7.12 亿元，同比增长 128.9%。 旅游出行方面，经文化和旅游部数据中心测算，元旦假期 3 天，全国国内 出游 1.42 亿人次，国内出游总花费 847.89 亿元，建议关注四季度冰雪游旺 季公司长白山、大连圣亚，寺庙游标的九华旅游、峨眉山 A 等。 黄金珠宝：金价高位走强，关注春节旺季销售。春节旺季金价走强， 民众基于"买涨"心理，旺季期间预计行业消费量下降有限，而金价同比 大幅上涨，主要品牌 1-2 月同店有望保持较快增长。建议关注一口价产品 占比高的潮宏基、老铺黄金、周大福，其他建议关注高股息的周大生、菜 百股份。 华福证券 风险提示 宏观经济波动；需求不及预期；行业竞争加剧。 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 团队成员 | 分析师： ...

Group 1: Aviation Industry - The core viewpoint of the aviation industry report indicates that the demand for air travel in China remains strong, particularly during the Spring Festival travel season, with pre-sales already initiated for 2026 [3][5] - It is estimated that the passenger flow in China's civil aviation will grow by 5-6% year-on-year in 2025, with a cumulative increase of 17% compared to 2019 [3] - The report highlights that the airline industry is entering a low growth era, with structural changes in demand being a key issue, as the proportion of business travel remains below 2019 levels [3][4] Group 2: Netflix (NFLX.O) - The report on Netflix projects that the company's revenue for FY26-28 will be $51.1 billion, $57.6 billion, and $64.6 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 13.2%, 12.7%, and 12.0% [7] - Netflix's content amortization cost guidance for 2026 indicates a 10% increase year-on-year, with a focus on enhancing advertising revenue and content quality [9] - The company is expected to maintain a net profit margin of 20.1% in Q4 2025, with a significant increase in advertising revenue projected for 2026 [8][9] Group 3: BAIC Blue Valley (北汽蓝谷) - The report provides a first coverage of BAIC Blue Valley, giving it an "Accumulate" rating with a target price of 11.49 yuan, driven by dual-brand synergy and a diversified product matrix [11][26] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 29 billion, 58.2 billion, and 88.9 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a projected net profit turning positive by 2027 [11][26] - BAIC Blue Valley's dual-brand strategy, focusing on the premium and luxury segments, is anticipated to drive revenue growth, with significant sales increases expected for its models [12][27]

Core Viewpoint - The recent issuance of the "Notice on Port Duty-Free Shops" aims to establish and adjust a number of port duty-free shops, which is expected to enhance the domestic duty-free market scale through collaboration with city duty-free shops [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Commerce, Ministry of Culture and Tourism, General Administration of Customs, and State Taxation Administration jointly issued a notice to establish and adjust a number of port duty-free shops [2]. - Eligible companies for bidding include those with duty-free operating qualifications approved by the State Council, such as China Duty Free Group, Shenzhen State-Owned Duty-Free Goods Group, and Wangfujing Group [2]. Group 2: Expansion of Duty-Free Shops - A significant increase in the number of port duty-free shops is planned, with new shops set to open at 41 ports, including Wuhan Tianhe International Airport [3]. - The Hengqin port duty-free shop will allow residents from Macau to purchase duty-free goods up to 15,000 yuan [3]. - The establishment of new duty-free shops will continue at Haikou Meilan International Airport and Shekou Cruise Center, while some locations like Qingdao Liuting International Airport will cease operations [3]. Group 3: Market Collaboration - The collaboration between port duty-free shops and city duty-free shops is expected to expand the outbound and inbound duty-free market scale [4]. - Starting from November 1, 2025, the range of products available at port and city duty-free shops will be expanded to include items like mobile phones, drones, sports goods, health foods, and pet foods [4]. - Travelers will be allowed to reserve items at city duty-free shops and pick them up at port duty-free shops, which will be treated as purchases under the port duty-free shop policies [4].

2026 年 01 月 23 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：72 分（较热） 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 | 1、《双融日报》2026-01-22 | | --- | | 2、《双融日报》2026-01-21 | | 3、《双融日报》2026-01-20 | ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（较热） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 72 分，市场情绪处于"较热"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：商业航天、银行、消费 1、商业航天主题：埃隆·马斯克正积极推进 SpaceX 的 IPO 计划，目标在今年 7 月前完成。作为行业标杆，其上市预期 极大地提振了全球市场对整个商业航天赛道的关注与信心。 另外，低轨轨道和频谱资源遵循"先占先得"的国际规则。 数据显示，可用轨位空间已十分紧张，中国已申请超 20 万颗 卫星的轨道频率，这直接倒逼各国加快卫星制造与发射节奏 以抢占资源 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Increase" rating for the industry, indicating a potential growth exceeding 15% relative to the CSI 300 index [10]. Core Insights - The establishment of new duty-free shops at entry ports is expected to synergize with city duty-free stores, collectively expanding the domestic duty-free market [2][4]. - The recent notification from multiple government departments allows for the establishment of new duty-free shops at 41 entry ports, significantly increasing the convenience for inbound travelers to shop duty-free [4]. - The report recommends specific stocks, including China Duty Free Group and Wangfujing, while also mentioning Zhuhai Duty Free Group as a related stock [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights the collaboration between newly established entry port duty-free shops and existing city duty-free stores to enhance the overall market size [2]. Investment Highlights - The report notes that the new duty-free shops will allow travelers to purchase a certain amount of duty-free goods (up to 15,000 yuan) upon entry, thus facilitating increased consumer spending [4]. - The policy changes effective from November 1, 2025, will expand the product categories available in duty-free shops, including mobile phones, drones, sports goods, health foods, over-the-counter drugs, and pet foods [4]. Financial Projections - The report provides profit forecasts and valuations for key stocks, indicating that China Duty Free Group is expected to achieve a net profit of 42.67 billion yuan in 2024, with a projected PE ratio of 46 [5]. - Wangfujing is projected to have a net profit of 2.69 billion yuan in 2024, with a PE ratio of 65 [5].

欢迎扫描下方二维码关注： 关于口岸进境免税店有关事宜的通知 财关税〔2026〕2号 内蒙古自治区、吉林省、黑龙江省、上海市、江苏省、宁波市、福建省、厦门市、山东省、青岛市、河南省、湖北省、湖南省、广东 省、深圳市、广西壮族自治区、海南省、四川省、贵州省人民政府： 为进一步发挥免税店支持提振消费作用，经国务院同意，现就设立口岸进境免税店等有关事宜通知如下： 一、在武汉天河国际机场等41个口岸各新设1家口岸进境免税店（在本通知所附《设立口岸进境免税店名单》中为序号1—41）。其中， 横琴口岸进境免税店设立后，允许自澳门进境居民旅客在该口岸进境免税店购买一定数量（15000元以内）的免税商品。 二、继续在海口美兰国际机场、 蛇口邮轮中心 等11个口岸设立口岸进境免税店（在本通知所附《设立口岸进境免税店名单》中为序号42 —52）。 三、停止设立青岛流亭国际机场、广州东火车站、江门港等3个口岸进境免税店。待厦门高崎国际机场客运航线转场至厦门翔安国际机场 后，停止设立厦门高崎国际机场口岸进境免税店。 四、口岸进境免税店所在省（自治区、直辖市、计划单列市）人民政府有关部门应指导招标人或口岸业主按照《中华人民共和国招标投 ...

欢迎扫描下方二维码关注： 三、停止设立青岛流亭国际机场、广州东火车站、江门港等3个口岸进境免税店。待厦门高崎国际机场客运航线转场至厦门翔安国际机场后，停止设 立厦门高崎国际机场口岸进境免税店。 四、口岸进境免税店所在省（自治区、直辖市、计划单列市）人民政府有关部门应指导招标人或口岸业主按照《中华人民共和国招标投标法》、《口 岸进境免税店管理暂行办法》（财关税〔2016〕8号）、《财政部 商务部 文化和旅游部 海关总署 国家税务总局关于印发口岸进境免税店管理暂行办法补 充规定的通知》（财关税〔2018〕4号）等有关法律法规的规定落实招投标等事宜。财政部当地监管局应对招投标活动依法履行行政监督职责。有资格参 与投标的公司为经国务院批准具有免税品经营资质的企业，包括：中国免税品（集团）有限责任公司、深圳市国有免税商品（集团）有限公司、珠海市免 税企业集团有限公司、中国出国人员服务有限公司、中国港中旅资产经营有限公司、王府井集团股份有限公司。 财政部 商务部 文化和旅游部 海关总署 税务总局 关于口岸进境免税店有关事宜的通知 财关税〔2026〕2号 内蒙古自治区、吉林省、黑龙江省、上海市、江苏省、宁波市、福建省、厦门 ...

Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment score is 76, indicating a "relatively hot" market condition, which suggests strong investor confidence [2][10][22]. Hot Themes Tracking - **Robotics Theme**: The upcoming Spring Festival Gala will feature robotics, showcasing technological advancements and creativity. Related stocks include Sanhua Intelligent Control (002050) and Wolong Electric Drive (600580) [6]. - **Banking Theme**: Bank stocks offer high dividend yields, with the China Securities Bank Index yielding 6.02%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield. This makes bank stocks attractive for long-term investors during economic slowdowns. Related stocks include Agricultural Bank of China (601288) and Ningbo Bank (002142) [6]. - **Retail Theme**: The National Business Work Conference emphasized boosting consumption and retail innovation for 2026, focusing on initiatives like trade-in programs and digital market development. Related stocks include Yonghui Superstores (601933) and Wangfujing (600859) [6]. Capital Flow Analysis - The top net inflow stocks include China Great Wall (000066) with a net inflow of approximately 142.67 million, followed by Xinyi Technology (300502) and Huatian Technology (002185) [11]. - The top net outflow stocks include Xunwei Communication (300136) with a net outflow of approximately -175.91 million, followed by Shanzhi High-Tech (000981) and Zhongji Xuchuang (300308) [13]. Industry Insights - The banking sector is highlighted for its stability and high dividend yields, making it a key focus for long-term capital allocation amidst economic uncertainty [6]. - The robotics and retail sectors are positioned for growth due to technological integration and government support for consumption initiatives, respectively [6].

Group 1 - The core idea of the news is the continuous development of Changchun's tourism industry, with the number of popular tourist spots increasing from 100 in 2023 to 150 by 2025, aiming to convert online traffic into actual visitors [1] - In 2024, an additional 20 new popular spots will be added to the existing list, enhancing the city's appeal as a tourist destination [1] - The initiative aims to create a vibrant cultural tourism brand, encouraging visitors to explore Changchun through an online tour model that highlights one popular spot each day [1] Group 2 - Wangfujing Outlet · Jingyue Town is the first town-style outlet in Changchun, designed as a new shopping landmark that caters to family-oriented shopping experiences [3] - The outlet features three floors, each with distinct themes and scenes, catering to consumers of various ages, styles, and spending capacities [3] - The complex aggregates numerous international luxury brands alongside domestic brands, enhancing the shopping experience with entertainment, dining, and leisure options [5] Group 3 - Wangfujing Outlet · Jingyue Town is the largest commercial complex in the Jingyue High-tech Industrial Development Zone, covering an area of 100,000 square meters [6] - The outlet is positioned as a new urban landmark, offering a wide range of products and experiences for consumers [6] - The design incorporates a strong European style, making it a popular destination for trendy individuals seeking unique shopping experiences [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Commerce, Ministry of Culture and Tourism, General Administration of Customs, and State Taxation Administration jointly issued a notice regarding the establishment and adjustment of several duty-free shops at ports of entry, aiming to enhance the duty-free shopping experience for travelers and regulate the market [1][2]. Group 1: New Duty-Free Shops - A total of 41 new duty-free shops will be established at various ports, including one at Wuhan Tianhe International Airport, allowing residents from Macau to purchase duty-free goods up to 15,000 yuan [1][3]. - The new duty-free shops will be located in major airports and ports across several provinces, including Hubei, Hunan, Fujian, and others [3][4]. Group 2: Continuing Duty-Free Shops - Duty-free shops will continue to operate at 11 existing locations, including Haikou Meilan International Airport and Shekou Cruise Center [1][2]. - The list of continuing duty-free shops includes various airports and ports in provinces such as Hainan and Guangdong [4]. Group 3: Cessation of Certain Duty-Free Shops - The establishment of duty-free shops at three locations, including Qingdao Liuting International Airport and Guangzhou East Railway Station, will be halted [1][2]. - The cessation of duty-free shops at Xiamen Gaoqi International Airport will occur after the passenger routes transition to Xiamen Xiang'an International Airport [1][2]. Group 4: Regulatory Framework - Local governments are tasked with guiding the bidding process for duty-free shop operations, ensuring compliance with relevant laws and regulations [2]. - Companies eligible to participate in the bidding must possess duty-free operating qualifications approved by the State Council, including major players like China Duty Free Group and Shenzhen State-owned Duty-Free Goods Group [2]. Group 5: Market Management and Risk Prevention - Local governments are responsible for coordinating and managing the comprehensive mechanisms to prevent illegal resale of duty-free goods and to combat smuggling risks [2].