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铜产业链周度报告-20251019
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-19 09:17
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market shows a neutral performance with prices ranging from 83,000 to 88,000 yuan/ton. The VIX index's rapid rise indicates increased market uncertainty. The market is cautious due to the game between supply constraints and trade concerns [3]. - Macro risks have affected investor sentiment, but they have recently eased. The raw - material supply shortage persists, potentially leading to a future copper supply gap. Global copper inventories increased this week, with a significant rise in domestic inventories. The supply - shortage logic provides long - term opportunities for long - position allocation, and attention should be paid to the development of trade frictions. The long - short spread trading position can continue to be held [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading End - Volatility: The volatility of LME and COMEX copper has increased. The COMEX copper price volatility is around 27%, and the SHFE copper volatility is about 25% [13]. - Term Spread: The term structure of SHFE copper has flattened, and the LME copper spot discount has narrowed. The COMEX copper near - end structure has changed from B to C [15][19]. - Position: The positions of SHFE and international copper have decreased, while the COMEX copper position has increased. The SHFE copper position decreased by 47,700 lots to 530,600 lots [20]. - Capital and Industry Position: The net short position of LME commercial enterprises has decreased. The net short position of LME commercial enterprises decreased from 77,500 lots on October 3rd to 76,700 lots on October 17th [26]. - Spot Premium: The domestic copper spot premium has strengthened, while the bonded - area copper premium has declined. The domestic copper spot premium rose from 20 yuan/ton on October 10th to 55 yuan/ton on October 17th, and the Yangshan Port copper premium fell from 49 dollars/ton to 37 dollars/ton [31]. - Inventory: The global total copper inventory has increased, with a notable increase in domestic social inventory. The global total inventory increased from 695,700 tons on October 9th to 718,800 tons on October 16th, and the domestic social inventory increased from 166,300 tons to 177,500 tons [34]. - Position - to - Inventory Ratio: The LME copper position - to - inventory ratio has rebounded, while the SHFE copper position - to - inventory ratio is at a historically low level [35]. Supply End - Copper Concentrate: The year - on - year import of copper concentrate has increased, and the processing fee remains weak. In September 2025, China's import of copper ore and its concentrates was 2.587 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.22%. The port inventory decreased from 509,000 tons on October 10th to 468,000 tons on October 17th [38]. - Recycled Copper: The import and domestic production of recycled copper have increased year - on - year. The recycled copper import in August was 179,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.79%, and the domestic production was 94,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.99% [39]. - Blister Copper: The import of blister copper has decreased, and the processing fee is at a low level. The blister copper import in August was 61,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.72% [48]. - Refined Copper: The domestic refined copper production and import have increased, and the import loss has narrowed. In September, the production was 1.121 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.62%. The refined copper import in August was 264,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.87% [52]. Demand End - Operating Rate: The operating rate of copper product enterprises rebounded in September. The operating rates of copper tubes and copper plates, strips, and foils rebounded in September but were at historically low levels. The operating rate of wire and cable rebounded marginally in the week of October 17th [56]. - Profit: The copper rod processing fee has increased but is at a historically low level, while the copper tube processing fee has rebounded. As of October 17th, the copper rod processing fee in the power industry in East China was 520 yuan/ton, higher than 490 yuan/ton on October 10th. The 10 - day moving average of the R410A special copper tube processing fee was 5,165 yuan/ton, higher than 5,112 yuan/ton on October 10th [60]. - Raw - Material Inventory: The raw - material inventory of wire and cable enterprises remains at a low level. The raw - material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a neutral level in September, and that of copper tube enterprises was at a historically low level [61]. - Finished - Product Inventory: The finished - product inventory of copper rods has increased, while that of wire and cable has decreased. The finished - product inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a slightly high - level in September, and that of copper tube enterprises was at a historically low level [64]. Consumption End - Apparent Consumption: The domestic copper apparent consumption is good, and power grid investment is an important support. From January to August, the cumulative copper consumption was 10.6172 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.04%. From January to July, the apparent consumption was 10.6802 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.06%. The power grid investment from January to August was 379.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14% [71]. - Other Consumption Areas: The air - conditioner production has resumed growth, and the new - energy vehicle production is at a historically high level. The domestic air - conditioner production in August was 12.8801 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.43%. The new - energy vehicle production in September was 1.617 million units, a year - on - year increase of 23.72% [72].
冠通期货研究报告:高价抑制需求
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-10-17 12:18
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The high price of copper suppresses demand, but the market is supported by macro - hedging sentiment, the expected interest - rate cut cycle, and the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October". The supply is expected to be tight, but the high price leads to poor inventory depletion [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - Today, Shanghai copper opened low, rose, reached a high, and then fell. Codelco plans to sell copper to European customers at a record - high premium of $345 per ton next year, a 39% increase from this year. Aurubis will also charge a record - high premium of $315 per ton for refined copper to European customers. International copper mines are frequently disrupted, and smelters have multiple overhauls, increasing the expectation of tight supply. In September 2025, China imported 25.87 million tons of copper concentrates and ores, a 6.2% year - on - year increase and a 6.23% month - on - month decrease. In October, 6 smelters had overhauls, involving a rough smelting capacity of 1.4 million tons, and the impact of overhauls increased by 47,300 tons compared to September. Although it is the peak season, the high copper price after the holiday has weakened the downstream's willingness to purchase. The policy of trading in old cars for new ones is expected to drive the sales of over 12 million new cars and nearly 1.7 trillion yuan in new - car sales by the end of this year [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened low, rose, reached a high, and then fell. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 55 yuan/ton, and in South China was 130 yuan/ton. On October 15, 2025, the LME official price was $10,528 per ton, and the spot premium was - $33 per ton [4] 3. Supply Side - As of the latest data on October 15, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $40.8 per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.08 cents per pound [7] 4. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 42,800 tons, a decrease of 1,557 tons from the previous period. As of October 16, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 100,000 tons, an increase of 1,300 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 137,200 tons, a decrease of 900 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 344,700 short tons, an increase of 1,417 short tons from the previous period [10]
沪铜偏弱震荡 等待更多指引【10月17日SHFE市场收盘评论】
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2025-10-17 07:36
Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing weak fluctuations, with a closing drop of 0.79%, driven by macroeconomic uncertainties and general demand for copper, alongside accumulating social inventory [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The Federal Reserve's dovish stance has led to strong market expectations for two interest rate cuts by the end of the year, despite ongoing risks such as the U.S. government shutdown and fluctuating U.S.-China trade tensions [1] - Supply-side disruptions previously caused a spike in copper futures, with ongoing concerns about tight mining supplies and persistently low processing fees for domestic copper concentrate [1] Group 2: Pricing and Supply Dynamics - Codelco, the Chilean state-owned copper company, is proposing to sell copper to European customers at a record premium of $325 per ton for next year, marking a 39% increase from this year [1] - Global mining supply remains tight, with domestic refined copper production cooling and limited rebound in social inventory, indicating strong resilience in the domestic market [1]
The copper supply-demand balance is under strain as crisis looms
Yahoo Finance· 2025-10-16 13:10
Group 1: Copper Demand Trends - Global copper demand has increased at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.7% over the past two decades, rising from 16.7 million tonnes in 2004 to 28.5 million tonnes in 2024 [2] - Future projections indicate that global copper demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.8%, reaching 35.1 million tonnes by 2030, driven by urbanization, infrastructure expansion, industrialization, and the energy transition [2] - The demand for copper is significantly influenced by its role in renewable energy infrastructure and the electrification of various sectors, including electric vehicles and data centers [1] Group 2: Supply Chain Disruptions - Recent supply chain disruptions have highlighted vulnerabilities, including an accident at Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine, which produced 815,000 tonnes in 2024, accounting for 4% of global production [3] - Other notable disruptions include production cuts at Teck's Quebrada Blanca facility in Chile and flooding at Ivanhoe Mines' Kamoa-Kakula mine in the DRC, leading to a 25% production reduction at Codelco's El Teniente mine due to an earthquake [3][4] - The UN has warned that copper shortages could impede the energy transition, estimating that $250 billion in investment and at least 80 new mining projects are necessary to meet future demand [4] Group 3: Production Gains - Some regions, including Zambia, Chile, Mongolia, the DRC, and Peru, have reported production gains, with specific assets like Mopani, Oyu Tolgoi, and Las Bambas showing increases [4] - Despite these gains, the overall outlook remains cautious due to the potential impact of supply chain disruptions and the need for significant investment to meet rising demand [4]
矿难与宏观因素均未消退,铜价当前仍可积极看待
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-10-16 06:26
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Short-term copper prices may continue to operate strongly above the 82,000-point level. Supply-side disruptions in the mining sector and the mismatch in the release rhythm of smelting capacity, combined with Aurubis raising the European long-term premium to $315 per ton, support the downside space. However, the weakness in traditional demand sectors, the increase in global inventories, and the significant narrowing of the LME basis suppress the upside momentum. At the macro level, the expected Fed policy and dollar fluctuations may intensify price volatility [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Market Summary - **Copper Futures Market Data Changes**: On October 14, the LME copper price was reported at $10,584.5 per ton, a 2.01% decline from the previous day, continuing the recent high-level correction trend. The LME (0 - 3) premium dropped significantly from $226.78 per ton to $54.87 per ton. The spot premium and copper discount narrowed to 100 yuan per ton, and the flat copper discount also shrank to 20 yuan per ton. The LME copper open interest slightly increased by 70 lots to 323,147 lots on October 14, but overall capital flow was relatively stable. Meanwhile, the open interests of other metals such as aluminum, lead, and zinc all decreased to varying degrees [1][2]. - **Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Changes** - **Supply Side**: Global copper mine supply disturbances have intensified. Codelco's August production dropped sharply to 93,400 tons due to an accident at the El Teniente copper mine. Japan's PPC and Mitsubishi Materials announced a 2.5% year-on-year reduction in copper production and a 25% reduction in concentrate processing volume in the second half of the 2025/26 fiscal year, further intensifying the expectation of tight supply. Domestically, the expansion project of Tongling Nonferrous' copper anode slime treatment system and the standardization renovation of Jiangxi Copper's Wutong Mine may improve long-term smelting efficiency, but the short-term actual increase is limited [3]. - **Demand Side**: The production and sales of new energy vehicles maintained a high growth rate, supporting the resilience of copper consumption, but the performance of traditional sectors was differentiated. The brass rod market was affected by the sharp fluctuations in copper prices, and the downstream purchasing willingness was low. Enterprise orders were mainly long-term orders. The demand potential in the power and energy storage fields remained to be released. SMM spot data showed that downstream buying interest was weak, and both the procurement and sales sentiment indexes were below the neutral level [4]. - **Inventory Side**: Global visible inventories continued to accumulate. The LME inventory increased to 36,295 tons on October 14, the COMEX inventory rose to 342,000 short tons, and the SHFE inventory slightly decreased to 138,800 tons but remained at a high level for the year. The inventory pressure highlighted the market's concern about the loose future supply and demand [5]. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring | Data Index | 2025 - 10 - 15 | 2025 - 10 - 14 | 2025 - 10 - 09 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM: 1 Copper | 85,590 | 86,070 | 85,180 | -480 | -0.56% | Yuan/ton | | Spot (Premium/Discount) - Premium Copper | 130 | 100 | 150 | 30 | 30.00% | Yuan/ton | | Spot (Premium/Discount) - Flat Copper | 70 | 20 | 45 | 50 | 250.00% | Yuan/ton | | Spot (Premium/Discount) - Wet - Process Copper | 0 | -45 | -45 | 45 | 100.00% | Yuan/ton | | LME (0 - 3) | 28 | 55 | 227 | -27 | -49.08% | Dollar/ton | | SHFE Price | 85,370 | 85,320 | 84,900 | 50 | 0.06% | Yuan/ton | | LME Price | 10,576 | 10,585 | 10,802 | -9 | -0.08% | Dollar/ton | | LME Inventory | 44,531 | 36,295 | 32,890 | 8,236 | 22.69% | Tons | | SHFE Inventory | 138,350 | 138,800 | 139,350 | -450 | -0.32% | Tons | | COMEX Inventory | 343,235 | 342,280 | 340,875 | 955 | 0.28% | Short tons | [8] Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On October 15, the pre - approval publicity of the environmental impact report of the upgrade, renovation, and expansion project of Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd.'s copper anode slime treatment system was announced. The project will expand the treatment scale of copper anode slime (dry basis) from 5,000 tons per year to 12,000 tons per year [9]. - On October 14, the on - site standardization renovation of the - 310m middle section hole bottom of Jiangxi Copper's Wutong Mine officially started, which will be carried out in three stages [9]. - On October 10, Codelco's copper production in August dropped significantly to 93,400 tons due to an accident at the El Teniente copper mine [9]. - On October 9, Japan's PPC and Mitsubishi Materials announced production expectations for the second half of the 2025/26 fiscal year. PPC expects a 2.5% year - on - year decline in copper production, and Mitsubishi Materials will reduce the concentrate processing volume of the Onahama Smelter by about 25% [10]. - On October 9, Aurubis raised the long - term premium for electrolytic copper in Europe in 2026 to $315 per ton, a record high [10].
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:贵金属及基本金属-20251016
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-16 03:47
2025年10月16日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金:继续创新高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银:现货矛盾缓解,冲高回落 | 2 | | 铜:国内库存增加,价格承压 | 4 | | 锌:偏弱震荡 | 6 | | 铅:库存增加,限制价格回升 | 8 | | 锡:关注宏观影响 | 9 | | 铝:震荡整理 | 11 | | 氧化铝:利润压缩 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金:跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍:宏观情绪转承压,镍价低位震荡 | 13 | | 不锈钢:宏观与现实共振施压,下方成本限制弹性 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 2025 年 10 月 16 日 黄金:继续创新高 白银:现货矛盾缓解,冲高回落 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...
铜:国内库存增加,价格承压
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-16 02:21
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The price of copper is under pressure due to the increase in domestic inventory [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices and Changes**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 85,800 with a daily increase of 1.65%, and the night - session closing price was 85,260 with a decline of 0.69%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 10,576 with a decline of 0.08% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 115,060, a decrease of 53,254 from the previous day, and the open interest was 208,930, an increase of 13,663. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 16,201, a decrease of 12,872, and the open interest was 320,000, an increase of 2,953 [1]. - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 44,531, an increase of 8,236, and the LME Copper inventory was 138,350, a decrease of 450. The LME Copper注销仓单 ratio was 6.18%, a decrease of 1.55% [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The LME Copper cash - to - 3M spread decreased by 26.93 to 27.94. The Shanghai copper spot - to - futures near - month spread increased by 40 to 90 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: In September in China, the new social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, the new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, and the M2 - M1 scissors - gap reached a new low for the year. The year - on - year decline of CPI narrowed to 0.3%, the core CPI returned to 1% for the first time in 19 months, and the year - on - year decline of PPI narrowed to 2.3%. In the US, economic activity has changed little since early September, and tariffs have pushed up prices, affecting consumers [1]. - **Industry News**: The investigation of the accident at Chile's El Teniente copper mine will take months. Codelco's copper production in August was 93,400 tons, a 25% year - on - year decline. In September, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 258.7 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to September were 2.2634 billion tons, a 7.7% year - on - year increase. The imports of unwrought copper and copper products in September were 485,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to September were 4.019 million tons, a 1.7% year - on - year decrease. Germany's Aurubis has had preliminary consultations with the US on support policies for a new copper smelter [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3].
国泰君安期货所长早读-20251016
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-16 02:03
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's CPI and PPI year - on - year decline narrowed in September, showing the characteristics of "overall weakness, stable domestic demand, and structural differentiation", with positive signals accumulating and signs of steady repair of the economy's endogenous demand power [6][7]. - For different commodities, there are different market trends and investment suggestions, such as gold continuing to hit new highs, copper having long - term bullish allocation value despite short - term disturbances, etc. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 China's Economic Data - China's September CPI was - 0.3% year - on - year (previous value - 0.4%), with a month - on - month increase from flat to 0.1%. The core CPI increased by 1.0% year - on - year, and the increase has been expanding for the 5th consecutive month, reaching 1% for the first time in nearly 19 months. PPI was - 2.3% year - on - year (previous value - 2.9%), and the month - on - month was flat for two consecutive months [7]. - In September, China's new social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, and the M2 - M1 scissors gap reached a new low for the year [20][24]. 3.2 Commodity Analysis 3.2.1 PTA - It is recommended to hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread. The unilateral trend is weak. The cost support of the polyester industry chain is weak, and the supply in the East China spot market is still sufficient. The new device of Xin凤鸣 Dushan Energy Phase 4 is about to be put into production, and the basis has declined [8]. 3.2.2 Copper - In the short term, prices are under pressure due to trade news and concerns about high prices in the US. In the long term, it has bullish allocation value as the supply of copper raw materials is expected to be tight, with some mines reducing production [10]. 3.2.3 Black Metals - The long - term bottom has emerged, but the peak season demand is weak. To maintain inventory balance, supply needs to be reduced, and attention should be paid to the production rhythm of electric furnaces [13][14]. 3.2.4 Gold and Silver - Gold continues to hit new highs, while silver's spot contradiction eases, and its price rises and then falls [17][20]. 3.2.5 Other Commodities - Each commodity has its own market trend, such as zinc showing a weak shock, lead being restricted by inventory increase, etc. [17][27][30]
BMI上调2025年铜价预估,助于工业需求和供应中断
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2025-10-15 12:36
Core Insights - Fitch Solutions' BMI has raised its 2025 copper price forecast to $9,650 per ton from a previous estimate of $9,500, driven by ongoing supply disruptions and strong industrial demand [2] - Current average copper prices are at $9,609 per ton, with trading prices exceeding $10,000 due to macroeconomic factors, particularly U.S. interest rate cuts, which are expected to stimulate manufacturing and investment activities until 2026 [3] Demand Drivers - China remains the dominant force in global copper consumption, with significant increases in demand driven by the expansion of green energy [4] - Solar power installations surged by 212 gigawatts in the first half of 2025, nearly doubling year-on-year, alongside a substantial rise in electric vehicle sales [4] - The dual surge in renewable energy and electric vehicles has pushed Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories to multi-year lows, while global inventories at the London Metal Exchange are expected to halve to nearly 140,000 tons by 2025 [4] Supply Constraints - BMI indicates that copper prices will continue to be supported by supply disruptions from major producers [5] - The Grasberg copper mine, the second-largest globally, experienced a landslide in September, invoking force majeure and reducing 2026 production forecasts by 35% [6] - Chile's production has also seen significant declines, with Codelco's El Teniente mine experiencing a 25% year-on-year drop in August, reaching a 20-year low of 93,400 tons [7] - The Collahuasi mine, a joint venture between Anglo American and Glencore, reported a 27% production decline, prompting both companies to lower their 2025-2026 production targets [7] Long-term Outlook - BMI anticipates a 2.4% growth in global refined copper production by 2025, but expects this year's global copper surplus to be smaller than in 2024 [8] - Over the next decade, BMI believes that a significant number of new projects will inject additional copper supply into the market, although supply growth will lag behind demand growth [9] - The International Energy Agency notes that each electric vehicle contains over 50 kilograms of copper, more than double that of traditional vehicles, and offshore wind energy facilities require up to 8 tons of copper per megawatt of installed capacity [9] - Consequently, BMI forecasts that accelerating electrification and clean energy infrastructure development will lead to a long-term supply gap, pushing copper prices to $17,000 per ton by 2034 [10]
供给扰动叠加市场避险需求,铜价短期存在强支撑
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-10-15 07:54
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Short - term copper prices are likely to run strongly around 85,000 yuan. Supply - side disruptions in copper mines continue, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment is high due to the potential shutdown of the US federal government. These two factors drive up the futures price, and copper prices may not decline until these factors subside [3]. - In the next week, copper prices may oscillate at a high level due to the interaction between supply shortages and demand uncertainties. It is estimated that copper prices will fluctuate between 84,000 - 86,000 yuan/ton (SHFE) and 10,500 - 11,000 US dollars/ton (LME) [35][36]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary - **Price Changes**: On October 14, the SHFE copper main - contract price dropped from 86,310 yuan/ton to 84,900 yuan/ton, while the LME copper price rebounded slightly from 10,374 US dollars/ton to 10,802 US dollars/ton. The LME (0 - 3) basis strengthened significantly, rising from - 31.19 US dollars/ton to 226.78 US dollars/ton. The domestic premium for premium copper increased from 80 yuan/ton to 150 yuan/ton, and the flat - copper changed from a discount of 5 yuan/ton to a premium of 45 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: LME inventory increased by 2,926 tons to 32,890 tons for three consecutive days of inventory accumulation. SHFE inventory decreased slightly by 50 tons to 139,350 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1,350 short tons to 340,875 short tons [1]. 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring | Index | October 14, 2025 | October 13, 2025 | September 30, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM: 1 Copper (Premium Copper) | 86,070 yuan/ton | 85,180 yuan/ton | 86,770 yuan/ton | 890 yuan/ton | 1.04% | | SMM: 1 Copper (Flat Copper) | 20 yuan/ton | 45 yuan/ton | - 5 yuan/ton | - 25 yuan/ton | - 55.56% | | SMM: 1 Copper (Wet - Process Copper) | - 45 yuan/ton | - 45 yuan/ton | - 75 yuan/ton | 0 yuan/ton | 0.00% | | LME (0 - 3) | 55 US dollars/ton | 227 US dollars/ton | - 31 US dollars/ton | - 172 US dollars/ton | - 75.80% | | SHFE Price | 85,320 yuan/ton | 84,900 yuan/ton | 86,310 yuan/ton | 420 yuan/ton | 0.49% | | LME Price | 10,585 US dollars/ton | 10,802 US dollars/ton | 10,374 US dollars/ton | - 218 US dollars/ton | - 2.01% | | LME Inventory | 36,295 tons | 32,890 tons | 29,964 tons | 3,405 tons | 10.35% | | SHFE Inventory | 138,800 tons | 139,350 tons | 139,400 tons | - 550 tons | - 0.39% | | COMEX Inventory | 342,280 short tons | 340,875 short tons | 339,525 short tons | 1,405 short tons | 0.41% | [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **October 11**: Chile's mining authority is investigating a worker's death at BHP's Escondida copper mine, and the mine is operating normally after the incident [6]. - **October 10**: Codelco's copper production in August dropped significantly to 93,400 tons due to an accident at its El Teniente copper mine, which caused six deaths and subsequent shutdown [6]. - **October 9**: Japan's PPC expects its copper production in the second half of the 2025/26 fiscal year to decline by 2.5% year - on - year to 287,400 tons. Mitsubishi Materials Corporation will reduce the concentrate processing volume of its Onahama smelter by about 25%, equivalent to about 75,000 ore tons in the second half of the year [6]. - **October 9**: Aurubis raised the long - term premium for electrolytic copper in Europe in 2026 to 315 US dollars/ton, a record high [6]. - **October 9**: Teck Resources' Quebrada Blanca copper mine extended its shutdown due to tailings dam construction. Its 2025 copper production guidance was lowered from 210,000 - 230,000 tons to 170,000 - 190,000 tons, and the 2026 forecast production was also reduced. Highland Valley Copper also lowered its 2025 production guidance due to grade decline and maintenance needs [7]. 4. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on China's PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between the US interest rate and LME copper price, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper price, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net - long positions, Shanghai copper warrant volume, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [8][10][12]