【热点要闻】 【市场复盘】 截至2026年2月9日15：00，中证石化产业指数（H11057）强势上涨1.10%，成分股浙江龙盛涨9.5%，彤 程新材涨4.86%、华峰化学涨3.59%、恒逸石化、杭氧股份等上涨。石化ETF（159731）上涨1.29%，最 新价报1.0元。流动性方面，石化ETF盘中换手9.92%；资金流入方面，石化ETF近20个交易日内合计"吸 金"14.63亿元。 【热门ETF】 1.消息面上，俄罗斯的原油产量在1月连续第二个月下降，原因是美国制裁导致其原油销售面临困难。 据知情人士透露，俄罗斯上月平均日产原油928万桶，该数据不包括凝析油产量。这一数字较12月本已 降低的水平又减少了4.6万桶/日，且比俄罗斯在与欧佩克+协议中允许的产量低了近30万桶/日。 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）跟踪中证石化产业指数，聚焦"大能源"安全逻辑。 不仅能分享下游化工品的利润修复，此外通过高配"三桶油"等炼化龙头，锁定能源上游资源价值，在油 价上行周期具备更强的业绩韧性。 【机构观点】 华泰证券认为，尽管油价短期面临压力，但伴随美元周期渐入宽松以及全球原油补库需求或 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 provincial meetings have established a clear direction for real estate work, emphasizing "stability first, prioritizing existing stock, and tailored policies for each city" in response to the national focus on expanding domestic demand [1] Group 1: Stabilizing the Real Estate Market - "Stabilizing the real estate market" is a recurring theme in government reports, aligning with the central economic work conference [2] - Key measures include the acquisition of existing homes for affordable housing, housing exchanges, and reforms in housing provident funds, with provinces like Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong making explicit commitments [2] - Cities like Chongqing and Shanghai are actively expanding the acquisition of existing homes for rental housing projects, signaling a positive move to alleviate inventory [2] Group 2: Local Debt Management - 2026 marks the final year for replacing local government debt limits, prompting provinces to focus on risk management and debt resolution [3] - Provinces such as Shaanxi and Henan are accelerating the market-oriented transformation of financing platforms and aiming for the clearance of hidden debts [3] - Strategies include reducing unnecessary expenditures and optimizing project spending to ensure debt repayment [3] Group 3: Urban Renewal Focus - Urban renewal remains a priority, with many provinces reducing project numbers, indicating limited investment space [4] - Specific plans include Beijing's goal to renovate over 300 old neighborhoods and Guangdong's initiative to start 600 renovations and build 9,000 kilometers of underground pipelines [4] - However, some provinces like Zhejiang and Chongqing have significantly lowered their renovation targets compared to previous years, reflecting a shift in focus [5][6] Group 4: New Development Models - The exploration of new development models in the real estate sector is a key focus for 2026, with provinces emphasizing the construction of safe, comfortable, green, and smart housing [6] - The approach reflects a transition from large-scale demolition and construction to quality improvement and safety assurance in urban renewal projects [6] - The emphasis on tailored policies for different regions highlights the need for strategies that align with local market conditions and development stages [6]

来源：市场资讯 据海关总署，2025年我国原油进口量同比增长4.6%至5.8亿吨，自俄罗斯/沙特/伊拉克/马来西亚/巴西进 口量占比分别为17%/14%/11%/11%/8%，其中25年12月我国原油进口量/俄油进口量分别同比增长 10%/13%。此外，受美元对人民币汇率持续下跌影响，25年12月以来中国原油综合进口价格到岸指数与 布伦特期货价格走势逐步分化，考虑26年人民币升值的潜力和动力，我们认为人民币计价的原油采购成 本优势有望凸显。综上所述，我们认为美印"石油换关税"协议达成或将导致印度俄油进口量进一步下 滑，俄油折价水平或将维持高位，叠加人民币升值潜力，均有望带动我国炼厂原油采购成本优势进一步 凸显。 欧盟制裁叠加美印"石油换关税"协议，俄油折价水平显著提升 25年8月，美国宣布对印度额外加征25%的关税，以迫使印度停止购买俄罗斯石油。26年2月2日，美国 总统特朗普表示与印度达成"石油换关税"协议，撤销因购买俄油加征的25%次级关税，同时将对等关税 从25%降至18%，印度将停止购买俄罗斯石油并转而从美国等购买石油。俄乌冲突爆发以来，中国、印 度和土耳其逐步取代欧盟，成为俄罗斯主要的石油出口国。据 ...

【导读】南华期货H股12亿港元募资全部增资境外子公司横华国际 期货公司也在积极"出海"。 刚刚完成H股上市的南华期货，要将全部12.03亿港元的IPO募资用于境外子公司横华国际的增资，增资后，南华期货对横华国际的出 资金额将达到20.29亿港元。横华国际是南华期货在境外从事期货、证券等金融服务的平台。 12亿港元全部增资境外子公司 2月9日晚间，南华期货披露，拟对境外全资子公司横华国际金融股份有限公司（以下简称横华国际）进行增资，增资金额为12.03亿 港元，按中国人民银行公布的2026年2月6日人民币汇率中间价换算，约合人民币10.72亿元。 南华期货对横华国际的增资资金，来自H股IPO募资。南华期货股份刚于2025年12月在H股上市，募资净额正是12.03亿港元。在南华 期货H股的招股书中，南华期货表示，募资净额全部用于横华国际，计划加强中国香港、英国、美国及新加坡境外附属公司的资本基 础，以进一步扩展公司的境外业务、优化公司的境外业务架构，提升公司在全球市场的竞争力及风险应对能力。 值得注意的是，横华国际有着较强的盈利能力。如2024年底的净资产为17.83亿元人民币，营业收入和净利润分别高达6.54亿 ...

华泰证券(06886)公布，华泰证券股份有限公司2026年面向专业投资者公开发行公司债券(第一期)发行工 作已于2026年2月9日结束。本期债券最终品种一发行规模为40亿元，票面利率为1.85%，认购倍数为 2.96倍;品种二未实际发行。 ...

智通财经APP讯，华泰证券(06886)公布，华泰证券股份有限公司 2026 年面向专业投资者公开发行公司 债券(第一期)发行工作已于 2026 年 2 月 9 日结束。本期债券最终品种一发行规模为 40 亿元，票面利率 为 1.85%，认购倍数为 2.96 倍;品种二未实际发行。 ...

Group 1 - Huatai Securities believes that the adjustment phase is nearing its end, and the calendar effect for A-shares in February is relatively positive, suggesting a gradual increase in portfolio flexibility [1] - The focus for investment should be on sectors with a trend of recovery or improvement, particularly those with relatively high beta and valuation attractiveness, including lithium battery supply chain, communication equipment, semiconductors, certain building materials, and chemicals [1] Group 2 - The E Fund's ChiNext ETF tracks the ChiNext Index, which consists of 100 stocks with large market capitalization and good liquidity, with nearly 60% of the index composed of emerging industries such as power equipment, communication, and electronics [3] - The E Fund's ChiNext 200 ETF tracks the ChiNext Mid-cap 200 Index, reflecting the overall performance of mid-cap representative companies in the ChiNext market, with over 40% of the index in the information technology sector [3] - The E Fund's ChiNext Growth ETF tracks the ChiNext Growth Index, which includes 50 stocks characterized by growth style, high performance growth, and good liquidity, with nearly 85% of the index in communication, power equipment, electronics, computers, and biomedicine sectors [3]

Group 1 - The ruling coalition led by Kishi Nobuo won over two-thirds of the seats in the Japanese House of Representatives, paving the way for further fiscal stimulus policies [1] - Analysts suggest that the unexpected victory of the ruling coalition may lead to a resurgence of "Kishi trading," with pressure on the yen and potential upward volatility in the Japanese stock market [1] - The victory of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) may result in continued depreciation of the yen in the short term, with a higher likelihood of foreign exchange intervention by Japanese authorities if key levels are breached [1] Group 2 - Political uncertainty is decreasing, and combined with "dual easing" policies, this may provide temporary support for the valuation of Japanese risk assets [1] - Despite the potential for fiscal expansion and slow interest rate hikes under Kishi's administration, concerns about the yen's exchange rate are increasing, especially if it approaches critical levels such as 160 yen per dollar [1] - The Japanese authorities have already signaled a willingness to intervene in the currency market, which could increase if the yen crosses significant thresholds [1]

Core Viewpoint - Recent earnings reports from Microsoft, Meta, Google, and Amazon indicate a significant increase in capital expenditures for Q4 2025, with expectations of continued high growth in 2026 [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - Domestic CSPs are increasingly investing in AI infrastructure, leading to a rapid growth in demand for AI chips, with a clear shift towards domestic alternatives due to uncertainties in US export policies [1] - The competitive landscape for domestic AI chips is evolving, with a notable adjustment in market dynamics [1] Group 2: Company Performance - The company has maintained a leading position in supply capability, product iteration speed, and product definition accuracy after years of development, solidifying its status in the top tier of domestic AI chip manufacturers [1] - The net profit forecast for the company has been raised to 6 billion yuan for 2026 and 17.6 billion yuan for 2027, with a target price set at 1,679.4 yuan, reaffirming a "buy" rating [1]

目前港股 IPO 排队企业达 414 家，市场对 2026 年港股 IPO 预期高度一致，普遍认为其上市规模将再创新高、结构持续分化，港股有望延续 2025 年全球 IPO 募资冠军的态势，稳居全球资本市场最活跃板块。 繁荣背后，"强者恒强、弱者分化" 将成为核心趋势。澳洲会计师公会梁祐庭指出，2026 年港股 IPO 将呈现 "两头大、中间分化" 特征：大型项目、行业龙 头及具备国际可比性的企业，将获长线资金与基石投资者青睐，发行定价及上市后流动性更稳定；中小体量企业则更依赖行业景气度与自身盈利兑现能 力，估值分化将进一步加大，港股 IPO 市场正从 "规模竞争" 转向 "质量竞争"，优质资产将获更高估值溢价。 此外，国际企业赴港上市成为新亮点。414 家排队企业中，有 11 家来自中国内地以外，覆盖泰国、印尼、新加坡、迪拜等国家和地区。 多家头部机构给出乐观预测：普华永道预计 2026 年港股将有 150 家企业成功上市，募资额达 3200-3500 亿港元；德勤预测募资额至少 3000 亿港元，其中 7 只新股募资超 100 亿港元；华泰证券则表示，募资规模中枢将达 3300 亿港元，较 2025 年提 ...