| 国泰海通证券 | | --- | | GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES | 目 录 | | 每日报告精选（2026-02-13 09:00——2026-02-24 15:00） 3 | | | --- | --- | --- | |  | 宏观专题：《有多少存款：可供"搬家"》2026-02-22 3 | | |  | 宏观专题：《关税一周年：全球贸易重塑的"真相"》2026-02-22 3 | | |  | 宏观周报：《春节期间：海外有何变化》2026-02-22 4 | | |  | 宏观周报：《新春经济温和修复》2026-02-22 5 | | |  | 宏观快报点评：《特朗普关税被否：后续如何演绎》2026-02-21 5 | | |  | 宏观快报点评：《"K 型分化"的边际收敛》2026-02-21 6 | | |  | 宏观快报点评：《超级核心通胀压力仍存》2026-02-14 7 | | |  | 宏观快报点评：《M2 增速：创新高的背后》2026-02-14 8 | | |  | 策略专题报告：《中国股市上升的关键动力三：中国内需提振的"有力转折"》2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Insights - The "Trade-in Policy" has shown initial effectiveness, driving automotive consumption exceeding 100 billion yuan, with the average purchase price for trade-in vehicles rising to over 164,000 yuan [4] - As of February 19, 2026, the trade-in policy has benefited 28.88 million people, generating sales of 198.02 billion yuan, with 612,000 vehicles traded in, leading to new car sales of 100.53 billion yuan [4] - The report anticipates a recovery in automotive market consumption post-Spring Festival, supported by the upcoming launch of several flagship new energy products [4] Summary by Sections Automotive Market Performance - In January 2026, China's automotive sales decreased by 3.2% year-on-year to 2.346 million units, with domestic sales down 14.8% to 1.665 million units [4] - Passenger vehicle sales saw a significant decline of 19.5% year-on-year, while commercial vehicle sales increased by 23.4% [4] - Exports of automobiles rose by 44.9% year-on-year to 681,000 units, with passenger vehicle exports increasing by 48.9% [4] New Energy Vehicle Insights - New energy vehicle sales in January 2026 were stable, with a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year to 945,000 units, achieving a penetration rate of 40.3% [4] - The report highlights that the penetration rate for new energy passenger vehicles is 41.7%, while commercial vehicles stand at 22.6% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading passenger vehicle companies, the intelligent manufacturing supply chain, and the humanoid robot industry chain [4] - Specific recommendations include Geely Automobile and Great Wall Motors for vehicle manufacturing, and companies like Desay SV and Horizon Robotics for intelligent components [5]

Group 1 - In 2025, China's automobile production and sales both exceeded 34 million units, setting a new historical record [1] - The year 2026 marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with many automotive companies setting ambitious sales targets and clear strategies for growth [1] Group 2 - China FAW aims for a sales target of 3.546 million units in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 7.39% from 2025 [4] - Dongfeng Motor targets 3.25 million units for 2026, with over 30% year-on-year growth, focusing on new energy vehicles and exports [6] - Changan Automobile sets a goal of 3.3 million units for 2026, a 13.3% increase, with a strong emphasis on new energy vehicle sales [8] Group 3 - SAIC Motor's sales target for 2026 is projected between 4.5 million and 5 million units, reflecting a pragmatic approach [10] - BAIC Group aims for 2.2 million units in 2026, with a focus on new energy products and smart technology [12][13] - GAC Group's sales in Q4 2025 reached 537,800 units, showing a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 25.56% [16] Group 4 - Chery aims for a sales target of 3.2 million units in 2026, a 14.03% increase from 2025, with plans to launch 17 key models [20] - BYD achieved a record of 4.602 million units in 2025 and plans to sell 1.3 million vehicles overseas in 2026, a 24.3% increase [22][23] - Geely targets 3.45 million units for 2026, a 14% increase, with a focus on new energy vehicle launches [25][26] Group 5 - Great Wall Motors sets a target of 1.8 million units for 2026, a 36% increase from 2025, supported by new technology [28][29] - Li Auto aims for 550,000 units in 2026, with a growth plan of approximately 40% [31] - NIO's sales target for 2026 is between 456,000 and 489,000 units, with plans to expand its battery swap station network [33] Group 6 - XPeng Motors targets 550,000 to 600,000 units for 2026, with a growth rate of approximately 28% to 39.7% [36] - Leap Motor aims for a sales target of 1.05 million units in 2026, a 67.5% increase, with plans to launch four new models [38] - Xiaomi Auto sets a target of 550,000 units for 2026, a 34% increase, focusing on technology development and user experience [40] Group 7 - Harmony Smart aims for over 1 million units in 2026, with plans to launch more than 10 new models [43]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic commercial vehicle market is experiencing strong growth, particularly in the new energy vehicle (NEV) segment, driven by policies promoting vehicle updates and the increasing penetration of NEVs in the market [1][5]. Group 1: Commercial Vehicle Market Analysis - In January 2023, domestic commercial vehicle sales reached 200,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 19%, marking a new high for January in recent years [1][5]. - The total sales of commercial vehicles in 2025 are projected to reach 3.1 million units, representing a 9% year-on-year growth compared to 2022 [5]. - The penetration rate of NEVs in commercial vehicles is expected to reach 29% by 2025, indicating a robust growth trend [1][11]. Group 2: New Energy Commercial Vehicle Sales - In January 2026, NEV commercial vehicle sales are anticipated to hit 50,000 units, a 63% increase year-on-year, despite a 64% month-on-month decline [1][6]. - The total sales of NEV commercial vehicles in 2024 are projected to be 579,000 units, reflecting an 84% year-on-year growth [6]. - The NEV penetration rate in commercial vehicles reached 26% in January 2026, a 7 percentage point increase compared to the same period last year [11]. Group 3: NEV Penetration Rate - The penetration rate of NEVs in commercial vehicles was around 3% from 2019 to 2021, increasing to 9% in 2022, 11% in 2023, and expected to reach 20% in 2024 [11]. - The NEV penetration rate for trucks in January 2026 is 21%, while for buses, it is 54%, both showing significant improvements [13]. - The NEV penetration rate for heavy trucks is projected to reach 34%, and for light trucks, it is expected to be 20% [13]. Group 4: Market Structure and Competition - The commercial vehicle market is primarily supported by light and heavy truck manufacturers, with companies like Foton, Wuling, and Sinotruk leading in sales [14]. - The market share of heavy trucks is particularly strong in regions like Southwest and South China, with NEV heavy trucks showing good penetration rates [15][16]. - The light truck market is also seeing strong performance in regions such as Southwest and Northwest, with increasing growth in the South China market [17][18].

五震荡走低，险守二十天线。恒指随外围低开 132 港股回顾 点，跌幅随即扩大至 247 点，低见 23730 点，其后跌幅 一度收窄至仅 20 点，午后大盘走势偏软，尾盘沽压再 度扩大。截至收盘，恒指收报 23831 点，下跌 145 点或 0.61%；国指收报 9656 点，下跌 47 点或 0.49%，大市 成交进一步减至 827.99 亿。港股通录得净流入资金 4.84 亿，其中港股通(沪)净流入 2.83 亿，港股通(深)净 流入 2.01 亿。板块方面，本地地产、软件、5G 概念板 块跌幅靠前；黄金股逆市走强。 周一港股三大指数全天强势震荡，恒生指数收涨 2.53%报 27081.91 点，恒生科技指数涨 3.34%报 5385.35 点，恒生中国企业指数涨 2.65%报 9197.38 点。大市成交 1730 亿港元。科技龙头、 半导体、有色股表现亮眼，紫金矿业、美团、中 芯国际涨超 5%，涨幅位居恒指成分股前列。新能 源汽车股普涨，蔚来涨近 6%，比亚迪股份涨近 5%。行业方面，恒生原材料业指数大涨 4.27%， 赣锋锂业涨超 8%，紫金黄金国际、五矿资源涨近 7%。大模型概念股回落，智谱跌近 ...

伴随着中国经济的飞速增长，中国汽车市场也在飞速增长，短短20年的时间，汽车保有量跃居世界前列。凭借着得天独厚的市场条件，中国国内本土汽车 品牌如雨后春笋一般迅速成长。 国产汽车拒绝国产轮胎 对于国产轮胎企业而言，现阶段想要与欧美那些大牌汽车厂商达成密切合作，PK掉米其林、普利司通这些全球驰名品牌，无异于是"虎口夺食"，其中的 难度可以想象。但好在我们的国产车企正在雄起，国产轮胎要想与"本是同根生"的国产汽车联手，想来应该不是一件难事。 因为在通常情况下，本国的汽车品牌都会优先选择配套土生土长的轮胎。 国产汽车拒绝国产轮胎 通过2023年新车原配轮胎排行榜也能看得出来，排在前五的国内轮胎企业只有玲珑（阿特拉斯）一家，前十之列的轮胎企业也仅有玲珑、朝阳两家轮胎企 业进入。 在高端轮胎之列更是难以看到国产轮胎的身影，即使国产车有很多超过30万的车，但他们大都是选择米其林、德国马牌、倍耐力等轮胎企业。 就像日本车几乎都配套普利司通、优科豪马等日本轮胎，美国车则多配套固特异等美国轮胎，更别提一向拥有十分强烈的民族保护意识的韩国了，韩国车 当然配韩泰、锦湖、耐克森这些韩国轮胎了。 那么中国的国产汽车品牌，是否也这么"护短 ...

数据显示，1月份销量前十的企业分别是：上汽、吉利、一汽、比亚迪、奇瑞、东风、长安、北汽、广 汽、长城。 在上述十家企业中，与去年同期相比，上汽集团、吉利控股、东风公司、广汽集团和长城汽车销量呈不 同程度增长，其他企业销量均呈不同程度下降。 责任编辑：王翔 2月24日消息，据中国汽车工业协会统计分析，2026年1月，汽车销量排名前十位的企业（集团）共销售 196.2万辆，占汽车销售总量的83.6%。 2月24日消息，据中国汽车工业协会统计分析，2026年1月，汽车销量排名前十位的企业（集团）共销售 196.2万辆，占汽车销售总量的83.6%。 数据显示，1月份销量前十的企业分别是：上汽、吉利、一汽、比亚迪、奇瑞、东风、长安、北汽、广 汽、长城。 在上述十家企业中，与去年同期相比，上汽集团、吉利控股、东风公司、广汽集团和长城汽车销量呈不 同程度增长，其他企业销量均呈不同程度下降。 责任编辑：王翔 ...

21世纪经济报道新质生产力研究院综合报道 早上好，新的一天又开始了。在过去的24小时内，科技行业发生了哪些有意思的事情？来跟21tech一起看看吧。 【巨头风向标】 2月23日，问界汽车官微发布《关于广东省惠州市车辆起火的说明》。其中称，2026年2月21日，一辆问界M9在广东省惠州市附 近起火，事件未造成人员伤亡。经初步调查，车辆三电系统状态正常，且未见车辆其它自身异常，判断事件非车辆自身原因导 致。说明称，将密切配合有关部门完成后续调查并积极协助用户处理后续事宜。请大家不信谣，不传谣。 问界通报"广东惠州车辆起火事件" 2月22日，智谱发布技术报告，全面解读GLM-5的技术细节。据称，GLM-5是一款旨在推动编程范式从"Vibe Coding"（氛围编 程）转向"Agentic Engineering"（智能体工程）的下一代基础模型。GLM-5 在前代模型 GLM-4.5 的智能体、推理与编程 （Agentic, Reasoning and Coding, ARC）能力基础上，采用稀疏注意力（DeepSeek Sparse Attention，DSA）以大幅降低推理成 本，同时保持长上下文能力无损。为了让 ...

国泰海通晨报 2026 年 02 月 24 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 1、【宏观研究】：春节期间，特朗普关税被判定违法，以及美伊军事冲突风险升温对全球资产价 格带来扰动，原油与黄金均有所上涨。美国经济韧性仍存，通胀回落进展或将较为颠簸，部分联 储官员提及加息可能。未来仍需关注特朗普关税政策的不确定性扰动。 2、【策略研究】：中国经济工作的重心正转向内需主导，并作为首要任务，内需复苏、物价回升 与地产企稳会推动经济预期上修。目前内需板块预期与交易出清，相信价值也会有春天。 3、【固定收益研究】：经济复苏节奏延续温和，呵护债市偏多环境，但需关注海外风险偏好回升 带来的扰动。 4、【纺织服装研究】纺织服装业：我们认为①截至 2.12 日的美棉周度出口放量、②2.19 日发布的 美国农业展望论坛明确新棉季全球供需收紧基调、③近期美国与东南亚国家关税互惠政策等多重 积极边际变化夯实美棉筑底并逐步打开中长期向上空间的趋势，持续重点推荐百隆东方、关注相 关标的天虹国际集团。 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] (分析师) 电话：021-38676172 邮箱：tangweix ...

自由现金流ETF紧密跟踪国证自由现金流指数，国证自由现金流指数反映沪深北交易所自由现金流水平 较高且稳定性较好的上市公司证券价格变化情况。截至2026年1月30日，国证自由现金流指数(980092) 前十大权重股分别为中国海油、格力电器、上汽集团、中国铝业、中远海控、潍柴动力、白银有色、宝 钢股份、正泰电器、长城汽车，前十大权重股合计占比50.3%。（以上所列股票仅为指数成份股，无特 定推荐之意） 自由现金流ETF(159201)，场外联接(华夏国证自由现金流ETF发起式联接A：023917；华夏国证自由现 金流ETF发起式联接C：023918)。费率方面，自由现金流ETF管理费率为0.15%，托管费率为0.05%，费 率在可比基金中最低。 从资金净流入方面来看，自由现金流ETF近9天获得连续资金净流入，合计"吸金"17.32亿元，日均净流 入达1.92亿元。份额方面，自由现金流ETF最新份额达106.27亿份，最新规模达138.39亿元。杠杆资金 持续布局中。自由现金流ETF最新融资买入额达3788.03万元，最新融资余额达1.75亿元。 从收益能力看，截至2026年2月13日，自由现金流ETF自成立以来， ...