特斯拉暴跌超15% 据每日经济新闻，当地时间3月10日，受美国总统特朗普关税政策影响，美国经济衰退风险上 升，引发市场严重担忧，美股三大指数大幅收跌，道指跌890.01点，跌幅2.08%；纳指跌727.90 点，跌幅4%；标普500指数跌2.7%，大型科技股普跌，特斯拉跌超15%，为2020年9月以来最大 单日跌幅，市值一夜蒸发1303亿美元（约合人民币9459亿元）；英伟达跌超5%，苹果、Meta、 谷歌跌超4%，微软跌超3%。加密货币、汽车制造、半导体板块跌幅居前，Coinbase跌超17%， Strategy跌超16%，康特科技跌超8%，阿斯麦跌超6%。中概股普跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌 3.59%，极氪跌超11%，哔哩哔哩跌超9%，金山云跌超7%，阿里巴巴、理想汽车跌超5%，京 东、拼多多跌超3%。 当地时间3月10日，因为美国总统特朗普的贸易政策已被证明比预期更为激进，可能导致物价 上涨和金融状况收紧，高盛下调了2025年美国国内生产总值（GDP）增长预期，将美国内生产 总值的增长预期从年初的2.4%下调至1.7%。这是高盛两年半以来首次调低对美国的经济预期。 社交媒体X周一频繁宕机， 昨天，发生了 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company and raises the target price to HKD 217 / USD 56, corresponding to a 12x P/E for 2025E [3][5][26]. Core Insights - The company experienced a revenue rebound with a 13.4% year-on-year growth in 4Q24, reaching RMB 347 billion, driven by strong performance in the electronics category due to national replacement policies [1][2]. - Service revenue also grew by 10.8% year-on-year, with advertising and logistics revenues increasing by 12.7% and 9.5%, respectively [1]. - The company is expected to maintain double-digit growth in product revenue into 1Q25, supported by the expansion of subsidized categories [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - The gross margin for 4Q24 was 15.3%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, while adjusted net profit rose by 34% to RMB 11.3 billion, exceeding market expectations [2]. - The adjusted net profit margin for 4Q24 was 3.3%, with retail and logistics operating profit margins improving slightly to 3.3% and 3.5%, respectively [2]. - The report forecasts a high single-digit profit margin for the full year, primarily relying on scale efficiencies and product mix optimization [2]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from RMB 1,084.7 billion in FY23 to RMB 1,250.1 billion in FY25E, with adjusted net profit expected to increase from RMB 35.2 billion in FY23 to RMB 51.1 billion in FY25E [4][6]. - The report anticipates a stable profit margin of approximately 4.1% for the full year, with potential for improvement in the medium to long term [2][4]. Market Expectations - The current stock price is HKD 179, with a potential upside of 21% to the target price of HKD 217 [4][5]. - The report highlights a cash dividend of USD 1.5 billion, contributing to an annual shareholder return rate of over 5% [3].

Group 1 - The government work report emphasizes the need to boost consumption and improve investment efficiency to expand domestic demand comprehensively [1] - Zhang Hongwei, a representative from Shandong Province, highlights that domestic demand is a fundamental driver of economic development and a necessary requirement to meet the growing needs of the people [1] - Since last year, Zaozhuang has leveraged the "two new" policy window to organize promotional activities for major consumer goods such as automobiles, home appliances, and home decoration, successfully attracting the JD Smart Logistics Park project [1] Group 2 - Zaozhuang is actively developing diverse consumption potentials through live e-commerce and second-hand car trading, while also enhancing cultural empowerment and tourism [1] - The city has launched various tourism routes and innovative consumption scenarios, including slow city living, cultural research, and leisure ecology, aiming to create a year-round, shared experience for both residents and visitors [1] - Zhang Hongwei states that Zaozhuang will focus on project construction as a key measure to promote investment and stabilize growth, closely monitoring project planning, recruitment, construction, and production [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD [4][14] Core Insights - JD reported a revenue of RMB 347 billion for Q4 FY24, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.4%, exceeding expectations [8][9] - Non-GAAP net profit reached RMB 11.3 billion, up 34.2% year-on-year, indicating improved profitability [12][14] - The company is expanding its trade-in policy and investing in its merchant ecosystem, which is expected to drive demand in electrical appliance categories [14] Financial Data and Profitability Forecast - Revenue projections for JD are as follows: - 2023: RMB 1,084,662 million - 2024: RMB 1,158,819 million - 2025E: RMB 1,247,550 million - 2026E: RMB 1,310,176 million - 2027E: RMB 1,357,656 million - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts are adjusted to: - 2025E: RMB 51,614 million - 2026E: RMB 55,319 million - 2027E: RMB 58,000 million [17][14] - The company achieved a gross margin of 15.3% and a fulfillment gross margin of 9.5% in Q4 FY24, both showing year-on-year improvements [10][12] Business Expansion and Strategic Initiatives - JD is entering the food delivery market to synergize with its core retail business, enhancing user engagement and expanding consumption scenarios [13][14] - The company has initiated a share repurchase program, buying back approximately 255 million Class A ordinary shares for a total of USD 3.6 billion, which is about 8.1% of its outstanding shares [13][14] - The platform is expected to continue investing in high-potential categories such as apparel and beauty, which will enhance user appeal and drive scale expansion [9][14]

点击图片▲立即收听 编者按：一个足以震撼的就业"大礼包"似乎正在缓缓下降。3月4日的政协委员通 道，南方科技大学副校长金李颇有底气地预测道：" 到2035年，我国银发经济体量 预计可以达到30万亿元左右，保守估计到2050年，银发经济将至少可以提供1亿个 就业岗位。 "真的如此吗？我们做了一些调研。 " 老年人的消费欲望十分旺盛，对于新兴事物的消费态度并不保守。 " 文 / 巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 越来越多的现象，似乎使一个老龄经济崛起的时代呼之欲出。 2024年，影视行业上演了一场惊人的逆袭： 中老年人为消费主体的短剧行业以504亿元的市场规模，超过了以青年人为消费主体的电影行业的425 亿元票房规模。 这不是一个偶然现象，本质是有钱有闲的中老年人逐步"攻占"互联网的结果——据2024年8月第54次《中国互联网络发展状况统计报告》，50%的 用户为40岁以上的群体，50岁以上的用户占比达33.3%。 在附近葱油饼店、油赞子店、现炒花生铺、特产店，吸引了一对对、一个个老年人驻足排队购买，而店员方面，则可以发现颇多中老年人，并不是 都由年轻人充当。 这样一个老年人活力四射的生活与消费生态，在虹口区是普 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for e-commerce platforms to shift from a competitive model focused on "robbing merchants" to one that prioritizes "nurturing merchants" for a healthier business ecosystem [9][10][26]. Group 1: E-commerce Platform Strategies - The emergence of platforms like DeepSeek has sparked discussions on optimizing the business environment, highlighting the importance of "streamlining administration, combining management, and optimizing services" [1]. - Platforms should adopt a service philosophy of "no interference unless needed, and responsive to requests," which is essential for a healthy commercial ecosystem [14][23]. - JD.com has entered the food delivery market with a "0 commission" strategy, positively impacting quality and worker protection in the industry [1]. Group 2: Retail Industry Challenges - The retail industry has been trapped in low-level competition, where new stores struggle to survive due to high advertising costs and complex platform rules [2]. - The article notes that the e-commerce sector has reached a point where change is necessary, advocating for long-term ecological development rather than short-term fee reductions [3]. Group 3: JD.com's Merchant Support Initiatives - JD.com has seen a significant influx of merchants, with many choosing to focus on the platform due to its support for third-party sellers, including increased resource allocation and professional guidance [4][12]. - The "Spring Dawn Plan" by JD.com aims to simplify the process for new merchants, offering zero-cost store openings and advertising subsidies, thereby reducing operational complexity [11][20]. - The plan has resulted in rapid growth for new merchants, with some achieving sales figures that rival those of established competitors within months [5][10]. Group 4: Long-term Ecosystem Development - The article highlights a consensus in the industry that the competition among e-commerce platforms has shifted from "robbing merchants" to "nurturing merchants" [9][27]. - JD.com's approach includes significant investments in advertising and support for merchants, with plans to allocate at least 1 billion in advertising subsidies [20]. - The focus on service quality and operational support is expected to enhance the overall ecosystem, allowing merchants to thrive without excessive costs [25][27].

以下是 京东 4Q24电话会纪要，财报点评请见《 国补撑场，京东总算 "出坑"了 》 一、财报核心信息回顾 | JD financial results wrap | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2Q23 | 4Q24E var | | | | | 3Q23 | 4Q23 | | | | 3Q24 | | 4Q24 | | | | | | | Rmb100 mn | | 4Q22 | 1Q23 | 1Q2 ...

午后的股市出现了一些疲态！ 今日午后，上午强势的恒生科技突然来了一波跳水，带着A股亦显著下行。而从外围市场来看，今天，亚太主要市场 普遍大跌，澳大利亚S&P/ASX 200指数收跌1.8%，日经指数大跌超2%。 分析人士认为，市场走势犹豫可能主要有两个原因：一是外围不确性依然较强，特朗普的政策摇摆不动，给全球市 场带来不适；二是从结构上看，中午亦有一则突发消息传出：Manus官方X账号被冻结。这导致结构上，前期大涨的 股票纷纷回落。 港股的杀跌亦带动了A股显著走弱。午后，A股三大指数集体翻绿。此前活跃的固态电池概念持续下挫，午后上海洗 霸触及跌停，武汉蓝电、灵鸽科技跌超10%，德尔股份、领湃科技、万润新能、金银河等跌幅靠前。昨天大涨的互 联网服务、软件开发等板块皆出现70亿元以上的资金净流出。 另一方面，从外围市场来看，今天，亚太主要市场普遍大跌，澳大利亚S&P/ASX 200指数收跌1.8%，日经指数大跌 超2%。台湾证交所加权股价指数收低0.6%，报22576.0点。 市场的波动一方面可能与特朗普的政策有关。特别是周末这个时点，市场将经历两天的休息时间，在此期间，不确 定性也比较大；另一方面，可能与市场近 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD US, with a target price raised from $60 to $62, indicating a potential upside of 41.2% from the current price of $43.92 [1][2][11]. Core Insights - JD US has returned to double-digit revenue growth, with a 13% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q4 2024, driven by various business segments achieving double-digit growth. The company expects this trend to continue into Q1 2025, supported by favorable policies and improved retail supply chain capabilities [1][6]. - The report projects a 7.3% revenue growth and an 8.5% profit growth for the year 2025, with adjustments made to revenue and earnings per share forecasts, increasing them by 3% and 5% respectively [1][6][9]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q4 2024, JD US reported total revenue of RMB 306.08 billion, with product sales revenue of RMB 246.50 billion, and a gross profit margin of 14.2% [6][7]. - The adjusted net profit for Q4 2024 was RMB 11.29 billion, reflecting a 34% year-on-year increase, attributed to supply chain improvements and economies of scale [6][7]. - The company anticipates continued growth in the electric product category, with a projected revenue of RMB 591.93 billion for 2025, representing a 7.3% increase from the previous year [5][9]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The total revenue forecast for 2025 is set at RMB 1,243.37 billion, with a projected growth rate of 7.3% [5][9]. - Adjusted operating profit for 2025 is expected to reach RMB 51.22 billion, with an operating profit margin of 4.1% [5][9]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is forecasted at RMB 51.90 billion, with a net profit margin of 4.2% [5][9]. Market Position and Trends - JD US has seen a significant increase in active user numbers and order volumes, outpacing the overall retail market. The company has maintained a double-digit growth rate in active user numbers and shopping frequency [6][7]. - The report highlights the positive impact of government subsidies and policy support on the company's growth trajectory, particularly in the electric product segment [1][6].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the fashion industry or specific companies within it. Core Insights - The fashion industry is experiencing a significant transformation driven by consumer demand for self-expression and diverse trends, including retro styles and futuristic designs. E-commerce platforms like JD.com are leveraging user insights to capture these trends and enhance sales channels for brands [2][4][5]. Market Overview - The apparel market on major e-commerce platforms is projected to reach nearly 2 trillion yuan in 2024, with social media engagement related to fashion outfits increasing by 54% year-on-year and interaction rates rising by 17% [9][12]. - JD.com’s apparel sales are steadily growing, driven by increased user engagement and a rise in female consumers. The brand's trendiness and category awareness are improving year by year [12][18]. Spring/Summer Fashion Trends Trend 1: Pioneering Technology - The 2025 spring/summer fashion trends highlight a blend of outdoor functionality and urban futurism, with styles focusing on simplicity, practicality, and technological features [27][31][41]. Trend 2: Commuter Aesthetics - The commuter fashion for 2025 showcases a mix of minimalist, elegant, and power styles, reflecting users' diverse and personalized fashion needs [47][51][63]. Trend 3: Leisure Street Style - The leisure street style for 2025 combines retro denim, new Chinese styles, and vacation aesthetics, catering to users' demands for comfort and fashion [69][75][79]. Category Insights T-Shirts - The T-shirt category is seeing a rise in popularity, with social media engagement reaching 139 million and a sales increase of over 80%. Key trends include cooling and quick-dry fabrics, with a focus on casual and outdoor wear [113]. Dresses - The dress category is characterized by a blend of retro and innovative designs, with social media engagement at 185 million and a sales increase of 30%. Key styles include slip dresses, new Chinese styles, and lace designs [97][100]. Footwear - Footwear trends are shifting towards high-quality, stylish options, with brands focusing on comfort and functionality. Popular styles include loafers, Mary Janes, and classic sneakers [89].