每日晨报│2026 年 1 月 26 日 -主要市场指数表现 | | 收市价 | 上个交易日升 | YTD 升跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 恒生指数 | 26,749 | +0.45% | +4.37% | | 恒生科技指数 | 5,798 | +0.62% | +5.11% | | 国企指数 | 9,160 | +0.51% | +2.77% | | 沪深 300 | 4,702 | -0.45% | +1.57% | | 上证综合指数 | 4,136 | +0.33% | +4.22% | | 深证成份指数 | 14,439 | +0.79% | +6.76% | | 中小板指 | 8,883 | +0.69% | +7.50% | | 道琼斯指数 | 49,098 | -0.58% | +2.15% | | 标普 500 指数 | 6,915 | +0.03% | +1.02% | | 纳斯达克指数 | 23,501 | +0.28% | +1.12% | | 伦敦富时指数 | 10,143 | -0.07% | +2.14% | | CAC40 指数 | 8,143 ...

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Buy" rating [8] Core Insights - The real estate market is entering a traditional off-season, with expectations for increased policy support [5] - In major cities, the transaction volume for new homes has seen a significant decline compared to second-hand homes, indicating weaker demand [4] - The market anticipates that other first-tier cities will follow Beijing's lead in optimizing purchase restrictions after observing declining transaction data [5] Summary by Sections Core Cities - Beijing: Second-hand home daily transactions averaged 558 units (up 16.3% year-on-year), while new home transactions averaged 80 units (down 45% year-on-year) [2] - Shanghai: Second-hand home daily transactions averaged 609 units (up 10% year-on-year), with new home transactions remaining flat [2] - Shenzhen: Second-hand home daily transactions averaged 201 units (up 68% year-on-year), while new home transactions dropped 57% [3] National Key Cities - New home transaction volume in 30 major cities decreased by 38% year-on-year, while second-hand home transactions increased by 9.2% year-on-year, primarily due to a low base effect from the previous year [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading real estate companies with land reserves in core cities and high-end improvement products, such as Poly Developments [5] - It also highlights the potential for valuation recovery in leading intermediary firms as the proportion of second-hand home transactions continues to rise, citing companies like I Love My Home [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and service sectors [6] Core Insights - The real estate sector is experiencing a significant reduction in holdings, with public funds and northbound capital reaching new lows in their investment proportions. The market is currently stabilizing, with a focus on recovery in core cities, particularly first-tier cities [1][2] - Recommended investment opportunities include companies with strong credit, urban presence, and product quality, as well as those with robust operational capabilities to manage cash flow during market adjustments [1] - The report highlights a shift in holdings concentration, with Beike rising to the top position among public fund holdings, indicating a narrowing of investor divergence in the sector [3] Summary by Sections Public Fund Holdings - As of Q4 2025, the total market value of public fund holdings in the real estate sector was 38.8 billion yuan, a 31% decrease quarter-on-quarter. The sector's holdings accounted for 0.43% of total stock investments, down 0.19 percentage points [2] - The real estate sector index fell by 8.9%, ranking 30th out of 31 sectors, primarily due to declining fundamentals and some companies hitting new stock price lows [2] Northbound Capital - Northbound capital's total holdings in real estate stocks were 11.5 billion yuan, a 17% decrease quarter-on-quarter, representing 0.45% of total northbound holdings [4] - The top five real estate stocks held by northbound capital include China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and others, with notable increases in holdings for companies with "real estate+" attributes [4] Recommended Companies - Key recommended companies include: - Yuexiu Property (123 HK) with a target price of 7.06 HKD and a "Buy" rating [8] - Longfor Group (960 HK) with a target price of 15.21 HKD and a "Buy" rating [8] - Greentown Service (2869 HK) with a target price of 6.56 HKD and a "Buy" rating [8] - China Overseas Development (688 HK) with a target price of 19.08 HKD and a "Buy" rating [8] - China Merchants Shekou (001979 CH) with a target price of 12.79 CNY and a "Buy" rating [8] - CR Land (1109 HK) with a target price of 36.45 HKD and a "Buy" rating [8] - Others include companies like Greenland China, and Hong Kong local firms benefiting from market recovery [1][8] Performance Insights - Beike's market value increased significantly, reflecting a strong investor interest, while other companies like Poly Developments and China Merchants Shekou saw reductions in their holdings [3][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of operational efficiency and cash flow management for companies navigating the current market challenges [1][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market has recovered, and credit has followed the decline in interest rates. The credit spreads in the 3 - 7Y period have all converged. The yields of various - term credit bonds have also significantly declined, and the credit spreads of different - term and - grade bonds have shown different changes [3][10] - The spreads of urban investment bonds have generally decreased by 2BP, with spreads of different - rated and - level platforms showing varying degrees of decline [4][15][19] - The spreads of real - estate bonds have generally continued to widen, but the spread of Vanke has been significantly compressed. The spreads of other industrial bonds have slightly declined [4][25] - The yields of secondary - tier and perpetual bonds have continued to decline, with the largest decline in spreads in the 3Y period [5][33] - The excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds have widened, while the excess spreads of urban investment perpetual bonds have shown differentiation [5][36] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market and Credit Spreads Convergence - This week, the bond market recovered, and the interest - rate curve steeply declined. The yields of 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y CDB bonds decreased by 2BP, 1BP, 2BP, 3BP, and 4BP respectively. The yields of various - term credit bonds also dropped significantly. From the perspective of credit spreads, the 3 - 7Y credit spreads all narrowed [3][10] 3.2 Urban Investment Bond Spreads - The spreads of urban investment bonds decreased by 2BP overall. The credit spreads of external - rated AAA, AA +, and AA platforms all decreased by 2BP compared to last week. By administrative level, the credit spreads of provincial, municipal, and district - county platforms decreased by 2BP compared to last week [4][15][19] 3.3 Real - Estate and Other Industrial Bond Spreads - The spreads of real - estate bonds continued to widen overall, but the spread of Vanke was greatly compressed. The spreads of other industrial bonds slightly declined. The spreads of central - state - owned real - estate bonds widened by 4BP, state - owned real - estate bonds by 1BP, private real - estate bonds by 17BP, and mixed - ownership real - estate bonds converged by 103BP [4][25] 3.4 Secondary - Tier and Perpetual Bond Yields and Spreads - This week, the yields of secondary - tier and perpetual bonds continued to decline, with the largest decline in spreads in the 3Y period. The yields of different - grade 1Y secondary - tier capital bonds decreased by 1 - 2BP, and perpetual bonds by 2BP; 3Y secondary - tier capital bonds by 3BP, and perpetual bonds by 4BP; 5Y secondary - tier capital bonds by 2 - 4BP, and perpetual bonds by 1 - 2BP; 10Y secondary - tier capital bonds by 5BP, and perpetual bonds by 4BP [5][33] 3.5 Excess Spreads of Industrial and Urban Investment Perpetual Bonds - This week, the excess spread of 3Y industrial AAA - grade perpetual bonds widened by 0.26BP to 14.67BP, and the 5Y by 0.01BP to 13.21BP. The 3Y urban - investment AAA - grade perpetual - bond excess spread decreased by 0.48BP to 4.03BP, and the 5Y increased by 3.21BP to 13.34BP [5][36] 3.6 Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - The overall market credit spreads, commercial - bank secondary - tier spreads, and urban - investment/industrial perpetual - bond credit spreads are based on ChinaBond medium - and short - term note and ChinaBond perpetual - bond data. The historical quantiles are since the beginning of 2015. The credit spreads related to urban - investment and industrial bonds are compiled and statistically analyzed by the Huafu Securities Research Institute, and the historical quantiles are also since the beginning of 2015 [38][40]

海南日报海口1月23日讯（海南日报全媒体记者 郭萃）1月23日，记者从海口2026年新春文旅商活 动新闻发布会上获悉，2026年春节前后，海口以"惠聚椰城·福马迎春"为核心主题，联动主要商圈、餐 饮、免税主体推出300余场促消费活动，配套发放价值600万元消费券，打造全域消费盛宴，全面激活节 日消费市场活力。 春节期间，海口将发放价值450万元免税消费券，激发免税消费潜力。 商圈消费方面，全市主要商圈计划开展超200场节日主题活动，活动密度与参与热度较往年大幅提 升。龙湖天街打造3000平方米新春灯会及超级年货节；东坡老码头推出醒狮开年表演、新年互动活动； 望海国际开展"2026马上有喜·活力开年"系列活动；骑楼老街举办"骑楼遇骏马·南洋潮新年"年货节。线 上线下联动持续升级，2026海南直播电商嘉年华暨网上年货节于1月6日至2月28日举办，通过百场直 播、优惠券秒杀等打造"云逛集市"场景，同步开展线下年货集市、直播选品会等活动，推出定制化年货 套餐。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and services sectors [7] Core Insights - The approval of Vanke's debt extension plan alleviates short-term pressure on leading real estate companies, contributing to a stabilization of market expectations and creating favorable conditions for the industry to "stop falling and stabilize" [1][3] - The threefold guarantees in Vanke's proposal, including optimized repayment arrangements, fixed repayment schedules, and enhanced credit measures, are crucial for easing liquidity pressures and balancing creditor interests [2][3] - The ongoing debt reduction efforts among major real estate companies are essential for addressing industry pain points and are a focal point for risk prevention policies [4] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in "three good" real estate stocks characterized by good credit, good cities, and good products, such as China Resources Land, China Overseas Development, and Longfor Group [5] - It also highlights companies with strong operational capabilities that can manage cash flow during market adjustments, such as China Resources Land and New Town Holdings [5] - Local Hong Kong real estate firms benefiting from market recovery, like Sun Hung Kai Properties, are also recommended [5] - Companies with stable cash flow and dividend advantages, such as Greentown Service and China Resources Mixc Lifestyle, are highlighted as attractive investment opportunities [5] Key Company Insights - Longfor Group's commercial operations continue to grow, while development sales have decreased year-on-year, indicating a focus on quality land acquisition [13] - Greentown Service maintains its annual performance guidance and emphasizes cash dividends and share buybacks, showcasing its competitive advantages in service quality and brand premium [14] - Greentown China reported a 23% year-on-year decline in revenue, but its sales performance remains better than the industry average, with a focus on improving debt structure and cash flow [15] - Link REIT, as Hong Kong's first listed REIT, is expected to benefit from factors like RMB appreciation and population recovery, leading to valuation recovery [14] - China Overseas Development's revenue decreased by 4% year-on-year, but its development scale and operational advantages remain strong, with plans for new project launches [15] - China Jinmao's revenue increased by 14% year-on-year, driven by improved project turnover and margin [16]

房地产在2025年供需仍在盘整、下行，但降幅有减缓趋势。近期《求是》接连发表"着力稳定房地产市 场"，显示政策面对于房地产止跌回稳，对症下药，加速房地产市场回稳，做出了有序安排。 根据华泰证券对于2025年梳理，认为在新房层面，"好信用、好城市、好产品"的"三好"地产股依然表现 坚轫，依靠运营能力在市场调整中掌握现金流生命线的房企，有商业现金流的支撑，仍然稳健，此外， 受益于稳健现金流、具备分红优势的物管企业，也发展良性。 新房市场：降幅收窄，改善需求成核心引擎 2025年全国商品房销售面积达8.8亿平方米，同比下滑9%，降幅较2024年收窄4个百分点；销售金额为 8.4万亿元，同比下滑13%，降幅收窄5个百分点，销售均价同比下降4.3%，降幅亦收窄0.5个百分点。市 场整体仍处调整通道，但下行压力显著缓释。城市能级分化持续，一线、二线、三线城市销售套数同比 分别下降11%、20%、10%，其中三线城市降幅收窄达18.3个百分点，成为全年最显著亮点。改善型需 求持续主导市场，120–144平方米户型成交占比突破30%，较2024年提升1个百分点，较2016年累计提升 11个百分点；144–200平方米大户型占 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a positive trend in the Hong Kong real estate sector, with most property stocks experiencing gains, indicating a recovery in the market [1] - The Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, Ni Hong, emphasized three key areas for urban renewal this year: the renovation of old urban communities, the promotion of complete community construction, and the transformation of small public spaces in cities [1] - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market by implementing targeted policies and supporting reasonable financing needs of property companies, as well as addressing the housing demands of residents [1] Group 2 - In the secondary housing market, major cities are showing signs of recovery, with first-tier and strong second-tier cities experiencing increased activity [1] - Data from monitoring agencies indicate that the transaction volume in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen is improving, with Shanghai's second-hand housing listings decreasing for nine consecutive months, leading to a more balanced supply-demand relationship [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a positive trend in the Hong Kong real estate stocks, with several companies experiencing significant gains, indicating a recovery in the market [1] - The Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, Ni Hong, emphasized three key areas for urban renewal this year: the renovation of old urban communities, the promotion of complete community construction, and the transformation of small public spaces [1] - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market by implementing targeted policies and supporting reasonable financing needs of real estate companies, as well as addressing the housing demands of residents [1] Group 2 - In the secondary housing market, major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen are showing signs of recovery, with a notable decrease in the number of listings in Shanghai for nine consecutive months, leading to a more balanced supply-demand relationship [1] - Specific stock performance includes China Jinmao rising by 4.4%, Greentown China by 4%, Zhongliang Holdings by over 3%, and New City Development by 1.8%, among others, indicating a general upward trend in the sector [2]

Core Insights - 2025 is a pivotal year for the high-quality development of the commercial market in Hubei Province, with the emergence of new retail commercial properties enhancing the commercial layout and supply level, providing consumers with more diverse choices [1] - The overall transition is moving from "scale expansion" to "quality improvement" and from "homogeneous competition" to "differentiated development," forming a more mature, diverse, and efficient commercial ecosystem [1] Group 1: Commercial Data Overview - In 2025, Hubei is expected to open 25 new centralized commercial projects, with a total commercial area exceeding 1.8625 million square meters, including 22 projects larger than 30,000 square meters [2] - The average building area of these shopping centers is approximately 74,500 square meters, with 14 projects in the medium-sized range of 50,000 to 100,000 square meters [5] Group 2: Regional Distribution - The new projects are distributed across seven cities, with Wuhan being the core city, accounting for 64% of the total new projects and 120.8 million square meters of commercial area [6] - Other cities like Jingzhou, Huanggang, and Xianning are also seeing steady development, with each having new projects that enhance the regional commercial layout [6] Group 3: Operator Landscape - The new projects feature a diverse range of operators, with 22 companies involved, indicating a competitive market landscape [7] - The opening schedule follows seasonal patterns, with September being the peak month for new project openings [7] Group 4: Emerging Business Models - The POD model is gaining traction, focusing on urban park-oriented development, becoming a key highlight in new project promotions [8] Group 5: Urban Renewal - Urban renewal is becoming a significant path for commercial development, with multiple projects revitalizing historical districts and old buildings, blending history with modern commercial vitality [18]