Core Insights - Aletheia Capital's report highlights a significant underestimation of the demand for advanced packaging, particularly CoWoS, driven by emerging AI applications [1] - The report predicts a substantial capacity shortfall for TSMC's CoWoS technology, with a projected gap of 400,000 units in 2026 and 700,000 units in 2027, indicating a severe supply-demand imbalance [1] Group 1: Demand Drivers - The growth in GPU shipments and the rapid expansion of photomask sizes are identified as the two main drivers for CoWoS demand [1] - New devices such as server CPUs, high-end PCs, and gaming console chips are expected to adopt CoWoS technology starting in the second half of this year, with a significant acceleration anticipated by 2026 [1] Group 2: Beneficiaries - Aletheia names six Taiwanese companies—TSMC, ASE Technology Holding, Kyec, ChipMOS, Wistron NeWeb, and Hongjing Precision—as beneficiaries of the positive industry trend, recommending a "buy" for these stocks [1] - TSMC's CoWoS-dependent chips include products from Nvidia, AMD, Microsoft, and Broadcom, indicating a broad reliance on TSMC's advanced packaging capabilities [2] Group 3: Capacity Expansion Challenges - Despite TSMC's plans to quadruple CoWoS capacity between 2024 and 2027, this expansion is expected to fall short of the rapidly growing demand, prompting customers to seek assistance from packaging manufacturers [2] - Companies like ASE and Amkor are expected to play crucial roles in packaging for new products, with significant increases in CoWoS demand projected between 2025 and 2027 [2] Group 4: Testing and Outsourcing - Kyec is set to benefit from strong growth in testing services for Broadcom's AI ASICs starting in 2026, as well as from TSMC's outsourcing of wafer probing tests [2] - Wistron NeWeb is also expected to gain from TSMC's outsourcing strategy, as packaging manufacturers increasingly adopt Wistron NeWeb's solutions [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant short-selling activities by investor Michael Burry on AI stocks, particularly Palantir and Nvidia, amidst a broader market downturn, raising concerns about potential market bubbles and overvaluation in the tech sector [1][2][3][4][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - The U.S. stock market experienced a sharp decline, with the Nasdaq falling over 2%, the S&P 500 down more than 1%, and the Dow Jones decreasing by 0.53% [1]. - Major tech stocks faced heavy selling, including Tesla down over 5%, Nvidia down nearly 4%, and Palantir down nearly 8% [1]. Group 2: Michael Burry's Short Position - Michael Burry's Scion Asset Management has concentrated approximately 80% of its portfolio on short positions in Palantir and Nvidia, with a total nominal value of over $10 billion in put options [3][4]. - The nominal value of put options for Palantir is reported at $9.12 billion, while for Nvidia it is $1.86 billion [3]. Group 3: Company Performance and Valuation Concerns - Palantir reported a third-quarter revenue growth of 63% year-over-year, reaching $1.181 billion, and raised its guidance for future earnings significantly [4][5]. - Despite the strong earnings, analysts express concerns that Palantir's stock price may be detached from its fundamentals, especially given its year-to-date increase of over 152% [5]. Group 4: Broader Market Warnings - Several Wall Street executives, including Goldman Sachs' CEO David Solomon, have warned of potential market corrections of 10% to 20% within the next 12 to 24 months due to high valuation levels [2]. - Burry's previous warnings about market bubbles and his recent actions suggest a cautious outlook on the sustainability of the current market rally, particularly in AI stocks [7][8].

截至收盘，标准普尔500指数跌1.17%，报6771.55点；纳斯达克综合指数跌2.04%，报23348.64点；道琼斯工业平均指数跌 0.53%，报47085.24点。 周二的代表案例是AI应用大牛股Palantir。尽管公司公布的新财报全面超越预期，且上调业绩指引，公司周二依然收跌7.94%。 公司股价在过去一年里翻了4倍后，已经成为"AI泡沫"的具象代表。 （纳斯达克综合指数日线图，来源：TradingView） 随着美股的昂贵估值问题被"大空头"搬上台面，预期之中的调整就在昨夜今晨发生了。 （Palantir日线图，来源：TradingView） 令担忧雪上加霜的是，电影《大空头》原型、对冲基金经理Michael Burry恰好在前一天披露了三季度买入了Palantir和英伟达的 看跌期权。 对于热爱日内交易的美股散户而言，周二也是4月以来最惨的一天。高盛集团编制的散户偏好指数周二下跌3.6%，约为标普 500指数的3倍。该指数追踪Palantir、特斯拉、Reddit和Robinhood Markets等股票。 对于潜在回调的关键点位，BTIG的首席市场技术分析师Jonathan Krinsky表示 ...

在科技巨头讲出新的叙事逻辑下，公募QDII正逐步回补美股仓位。 近期，英伟达、微软、谷歌、三星在美股密集发布对AI医疗的投资后，包括张坤等明星基金经理所管公募 QDII大举增加美股仓位，也使不少基金在近期港股调整中降低了回撤风险，借助AI医疗新叙事在近期的强 势，不少前期表现落后的QDII基金业绩加速提升。 驱动QDII基金经理在第三季度末增持美股的核心原因，是近期美股AI医疗赛道开始展现高弹性。 Wind数据显示，以近三个月的弹性收益排名计算，以美股为核心仓位的QDII基金几乎主导了业绩前五名。其 中，易方达基金旗下的易方达全球成长精选基金近三个月的收益率为39%，华夏新时代基金的同期收益率为 36%，嘉实基金旗下的嘉实全球产业基金同期收益为31%，天弘基金旗下的全球高端制造基金同期为30%，创 金合信全球医药生物基金同期收益率约28%。 根据最近一个月的收益率，几乎没有港股仓位的QDII基金，曾是业绩排名的主要受益者。建信基金旗下的建 信新兴市场混合基金近一个月收益率约为11%，在最近一个月内排名QDII第一，而创金合信全球医药生物基金 在最近一个月的收益排名第二，期间业绩回报为10%。 QDII基金强力 ...

Group 1 - The core narrative shift among tech giants like Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, and Samsung is driving public QDII funds to increase their positions in US stocks, particularly in the AI healthcare sector [1][6] - Star fund managers, including Zhang Kun and Li Yaozhu, have significantly raised their US stock allocations, reducing their exposure to Hong Kong stocks amid recent market adjustments [3][4] - The performance of QDII funds has improved, with many previously underperforming funds seeing accelerated gains due to the strong performance of AI healthcare stocks [1][6] Group 2 - The report from GF Global Select Fund indicates that by the end of Q3, the fund's US stock allocation rose to 75%, while its Hong Kong stock allocation dropped to approximately 3.72% [3] - Similarly, the E Fund Global Growth Select Fund saw its US stock allocation increase to 52%, with only about 10% in Hong Kong stocks, focusing on major US tech companies [3] - The Chuangjin Hexin Global Pharmaceutical Fund completely liquidated its Hong Kong stock holdings, increasing its US stock allocation to 71% by the end of September [4] Group 3 - The core reason for the increase in US stock holdings among QDII fund managers is the high elasticity exhibited by the AI healthcare sector in the US market [6] - QDII funds focusing on US stocks have dominated performance rankings, with notable returns such as 39% for E Fund Global Growth Select Fund and 36% for Huaxia New Era Fund over the past three months [6] - Funds with minimal Hong Kong exposure, like the Jianxin Emerging Markets Mixed Fund, have also seen significant returns, ranking first with an 11% return in the last month [6] Group 4 - Recent developments in the US AI healthcare sector, including major collaborations and investments by companies like Nvidia and Microsoft, have significantly contributed to the performance of QDII funds [7] - For instance, the GRAIL company, which focuses on cancer early detection, has seen its stock price rise by 55% after receiving investments from major firms, benefiting funds like Chuangjin Hexin [7] Group 5 - Fund managers are optimistic about the growth potential of AI healthcare, viewing it as a key investment area amid the ongoing technological advancements in the sector [9][10] - The focus is shifting towards AI medical devices and applications with substantial market potential, as evidenced by adjustments in fund holdings [9][10] - The Silver Hua Healthcare Fund has also invested heavily in AI healthcare stocks, emphasizing the underestimated potential of AI technology in the pharmaceutical industry [10]

A股三大指数早盘集体下跌，截至午间收盘，沪指跌0.19%报3969.05点，深成指跌1.27%，创业板指跌 1.51%，北证50跌2.3%。沪深京三市半日成交额12311亿元，较上日缩量1674亿元，全市场超3600只个 股下跌。 盘面上，科创半导体、半导体设备材料上涨，中微公司涨超7%，科创半导体ETF鹏华、科创半导体 ETF、科创半导体设备ETF涨超2%；半导体设备ETF、半导体材料ETF、半导体设备ETF易方达、半导 体设备ETF、半导体设备ETF基金、半导体产业ETF涨超1%。 | લ્દેશને | 名称 | 当日涨跌幅 | 管理公司 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 589020.SH | 科创半导体ETF鹏华 | 2.30% | 腿花真金 | | 588170.SH | 科创学导体ETF | 2.15% | 花直音等 | | 588710.SH | 科创半导体设备ETF | 2.02% | 华泰柏瑞基金 | | 159516.SZ | 半导体设备ETF | 1.74% | 国泰县金 | | 562590.SH | 半导体材料ETF | 1.73% | 花直事等 | | ...

1.周大生一年关闭560家店 点评：芯片巨头连年提价，技术霸权下的市场博弈。 尽管金价一路攀升，但黄金珠宝企业的盈利却反向下行，多家头部品牌已开始缩减门店规模。周大生 （002867.SZ）最新财报显示，截至2025年9月30日，公司终端门店数量为4675家，较上年同期净减少560 家，其中加盟门店减少380家，成为关店主力。 点评：老牌珠宝遇冷，关店潮折射转型阵痛。 2.马来西亚首富郭鹤年之子上海买入自家豪宅 近日，嘉里建设有限公司（00683.HK）公告称，公司董事会主席、行政总裁及执行董事郭孔华于10月31日 与嘉里旗下全资附属公司上海卓妙置业有限公司签订协议，购买位于上海市黄浦区金陵华庭一套449平方米 的四室房源，交易总价约为1.168亿元(约1.277亿港元)，单价超26万元/平方米。 点评：商界巨子低调布局，显市场信心与家族传承。 3.消息人士：台积电启动"连4年涨价"计划，5纳米以下估涨约5-10% 产业人士透露，台积电已通知客户，自9月起，针对5纳米以下先进制程启动连续4年涨价计划，业界形容这 是"AI时代以来首次长期涨价行动"。芯片设计业者指出，台积电此次调涨恐怕意味将逐步缩减7纳米以上成 ...

[Table_Summary] 1、【电子研究】电子元器件：DeepSeek 开源 AI 补齐产业链短板 2、【海外科技研究】海外科技：AI 与数据中心建设引领半导体产业加速升级，新技术和投资竞赛 持续升温。 3、【交通运输研究】中国国航：2025Q3 公商意外走弱对公司影响大于行业，公司仍实现大额盈 利并连续三年超过 19Q3，展现盈利韧性与上行潜力。控股股东拟认购大额定增，将加速资本结 构优化。 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] (分析师) 电话：021-38676172 邮箱：tangweixiang@gtht.com 登记编号：S0880511010007 国泰海通晨报 2025 年 11 月 04 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 舒迪(分析师) 021-38676666 shudi@gtht.com S0880521070002 王美懿(研究助理) 021-38031385 wangmeiyi@gtht.com S0880124070042 秦和平(分析师) 0755-23976666 qinheping@gtht.com S08 ...

智通财经APP获悉，估值高达5000亿美元的全球AI应用领军者OpenAI在过去一个月里与一众科技巨头们所达成的AI算力资源供 给协议，规模已膨胀至数千亿美元，整体规模已经非常接近OpenAI首席执行官山姆·阿尔特曼所展望的规模高达1.4万亿美元AI 算力基础设施庞大支出规划。 对于"AI芯片霸主"英伟达(NVDA.US)、HBM存储系统的三大霸主——SK海力士、三星与美光，以及西部数据、闪迪以及希捷 等一众数据中心企业级存储产品巨头们来说，可谓是OpenAI近期超大规模AI算力基础设施签约(从规模高达5000亿美元的"星际 之门"AI超级基建项目，再到最新锁定的亚马逊AWS算力超级大单)的最大受益势力。 在这些OpenAI所签署的攸关无比庞大AI算力基础设施资源供给的许多协议里，英伟达广受市场欢迎且性能与生态愈发强大的 AI GPU算力集群成为最为关键的AI算力基础设施庞大订单受益方，其次则是专注于数据中心高性能存储产品的巨头们。此 外，其他AI芯片领军者们以及云计算服务提供商们也在合力分食这块OpenAI所带来的"超级大蛋糕"。 最新的一笔交易于美东时间周一早间重磅宣布，合作方是亚马逊旗下的全球最大规模云 ...

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 11 03 年 月 日 台积电（TSM.N） 台积电 2025Q3 业绩超预期。2025Q3 台积电收入 331 亿美元，同比增加 40.8%，高于先前指引的 318-330 亿美元收入上限。按新台币收入为 9899 亿新台币，同比增加 30.3%。本季度，公司毛利率达 59.5%，较指引上限 高 2.0%，主要原因系成本改善与产能利用率提升。归母净利润达 151 亿 美元，同比增长 50.3%。 先 进制程收 入占比稳 步提升 。 从产品结构来看，2025Q3 台积电 3nm/5nm/7nm 产品收入占比分别为 23%/37%/14%，7nm 及以下先进制 程占晶圆总收入比重已达 74%。其中，3nm/5nm 占比同比增加 3/5 个百 分点，7nm 同比下降 3 个百分点。 业绩表现超预期，上调全年资本支出 需求角度：AI 需求较 3 个月前更加强劲。下游场景方面，2025Q3 高性能 计 算 HPC/ 智 能 手 机 /IoT/ 汽 车 / 数 字 消 费 电 子 分 别 占 比 57%/30%/5%/5%/1%。其中，高性能计算同比增加 ...