Core Insights - Zhejiang province opened 37 new commercial projects in 2023, with a total commercial area of approximately 2.4743 million square meters, marking a year-on-year decrease of about 31% in the number of projects, but an opening rate exceeding 80%, maintaining a leading position in the national market [1] Group 1: Market Overview - Hangzhou dominates the market with 17 new projects and a total area of 1.1504 million square meters, accounting for nearly half of the province's total, solidifying its leading position [3] - Ningbo followed with 7 new projects totaling 408,900 square meters, with notable projects like Ningbo Jiangshan Wanda Plaza recognized for urban renewal [3] - Jinhua continues its growth trend with 5 projects planned for 2025, totaling 382,000 square meters, reflecting the trend of operators penetrating into third and fourth-tier cities [4] Group 2: Project Types and Trends - Shopping centers remain the dominant project type, comprising 54% of new openings, while non-standard commercial projects account for 27%, indicating a growing demand for unique and themed commercial spaces [5] - Traditional shopping centers are innovating by incorporating park-like or street-like designs to enhance openness and social attributes, transforming commercial spaces into "lifestyle destinations" [5] - Mid-sized projects (5-10 million square meters) are the most numerous, with 12 projects, indicating a shift towards a more layered market structure [6] Group 3: Key Players and Innovations - Major operators like Longfor, Intime, and Wanda continue to deepen their presence in Zhejiang, with Wanda managing the most openings in 2023 [7] - Local emerging players are also entering the market, with innovative projects like Hangzhou Jindi T-ONE MO and Alibaba's non-standard commercial project Qincheng Park [7] - Notable projects include Hangzhou Aoyao Wanxiang Tiandi, which integrates local culture and aims to redefine urban commercial spaces [10] Group 4: Noteworthy Projects - Hangzhou North招商花园城, with a commercial area of over 240,000 square meters, has achieved a leasing and opening rate exceeding 95% [11] - Longfor Hangzhou Shangcheng Tiandi, positioned as a "park-style commercial" center, features over 270 brands and aims to enhance local quality of life [17][18] - Jindi T-ONE MO, located in the core of Hangzhou's Olympic Sports Circle, opened with over 130 brands and achieved significant foot traffic and sales in its initial days [19][21] - The Qinwang Water Street project aims to redefine urban waterfront living with a focus on aesthetics and cultural integration [23][25]

Core Viewpoint - China Jinmao reported its unaudited sales data for December 2025, indicating a significant sales performance in the real estate sector [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - In December 2025, China Jinmao and its subsidiaries achieved a signed sales amount of RMB 12.821 billion, with a signed sales area of 423,200 square meters [1] - For the 12 months ending December 31, 2025, the group accumulated a total signed sales amount of RMB 113.5 billion, which includes sales from various projects such as Changsha Meixi Lake International New City and Nanjing Qinglongshan International Ecological New City, among others [1] - The total signed sales area for the same period reached 4.795 million square meters [1] Group 2: Property Sales - As of December 31, 2025, the group recorded a subscribed (but not yet signed) property sales amount of RMB 720 million [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate industry [8] Core Insights - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with policies expected to support recovery in 2026. The emphasis is on the financial attributes of real estate and its macroeconomic significance [17][19] - In December 2025, the top 100 real estate companies reported a sales decline of 23.8% year-on-year, with an annual decline of 15.9% for the entire year [16][17] - The report suggests focusing on three areas for investment opportunities: commercial real estate, second-hand brokerage, and property services, along with developers with strong product capabilities [19] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In December 2025, the sales figures for the top 100 real estate companies showed a year-on-year decline of 23.8%, with cumulative sales for the year down 15.9% [16][17] - The top 10 companies had a sales decline of 13.1%, while the next tiers saw declines of 27.9% and 23.8% respectively [16] Market Trends - The report indicates that the new housing market is stabilizing, while the second-hand market is expected to see an increase in volume with stable prices [2] - The report highlights a significant drop in new and second-hand housing transaction areas, with declines of 21.18% and 21.75% year-on-year respectively [6] Policy Outlook - The report anticipates stronger policy support for the real estate market in 2026, aiming to boost market confidence and stabilize expectations [17][19] - The emphasis on "good housing" standards is expected to guide the industry towards quality improvement rather than mere expansion [4][18] Stock Market and Credit Bonds - The A-share real estate sector outperformed the market with a weekly increase of 5.07%, while the Hong Kong real estate sector rose by 3.04% [21][33] - The issuance of real estate credit bonds reached 6.38 billion yuan, with a net financing amount of 0.457 billion yuan [21][40] REITs Market - The REITs index increased by 1.74%, with the property REITs index rising by 2.27% [42][55] - The total transaction volume for REITs was 1.615 billion yuan, showing a significant increase compared to previous weeks [55]

Policy News - The State Council held a meeting on January 9 to implement a package policy for fiscal and financial coordination to boost domestic demand, emphasizing the need to guide social capital in promoting consumption and expanding investment, particularly in supporting resident consumption upgrades and private investment development [1] - The People's Bank of China emphasized the continuation of moderately loose monetary policy during its 2026 work meeting, aiming to support stable growth in the real economy and financial market, while also addressing financial risks in key areas [1] - Recent adjustments to the real estate financing coordination mechanism allow projects on the "white list" to extend loans for up to five years, compared to the previous maximum of two and a half years [1] Market News - In 2025, the total land transfer fees for residential land in 300 cities decreased by 10.6% year-on-year, with a total of 2.3 trillion yuan, and the planned building area for residential land transactions fell by 13.5% to 620 million square meters [4] - The top 20 cities accounted for 52% of the national residential land transfer fees, indicating a concentration of land acquisition by major enterprises in core cities [4] Real Estate Company News - Vanke announced that Yu Liang has retired due to age, resigning from his positions as director and executive vice president, with no impact on the board's operation [8] - Country Garden's four bonds resumed trading on January 9 after early cash repayment was completed on December 26, 2025 [12] - Sunac China reported three new overdue debts totaling approximately 640 million yuan, with the main reasons being unpaid principal [13] - R&F Properties disclosed that as of November 30, 2025, the total overdue debt reached 38.7 billion yuan, primarily due to various financial obligations not being repaid [14] - Several real estate companies reported their 2025 sales performance, with Poly Developments achieving a signed sales amount of 253.03 billion yuan and China Overseas Development reaching 251.23 billion yuan [15]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a pessimistic outlook for the real estate market, with expectations of a 10%-15% decline in second-hand housing prices over the next two years [1][3][12] Core Insights - The overall real estate sales are projected to decline moderately, with new housing sales decreasing but a slight rebound in the absorption rate anticipated [1][5] - Land sales are expected to slow down after a brief recovery in the first half of 2025, with new construction area potentially dropping below 500 million square meters by the end of 2027 [1][6] - Developers are facing significant financing challenges, with interest burdens rising, particularly for private developers, leading to increased repayment pressures [1][8] - The liquidity situation for 28 developers under pressure has worsened, with a significant reduction in sales contribution and a high proportion of short-term debt [1][9] Summary by Sections Real Estate Market Outlook - The forecast for the real estate market in 2026 and 2027 has been updated, with a delay in the stabilization of housing prices due to unclear policy support [2][12] - Second-hand housing prices are expected to decline by 10%-15%, with transaction volumes stabilizing around 600 million square meters [3][12] New Housing Market - New housing sales are anticipated to decline, but a slight rebound in the absorption rate is expected due to a decrease in available inventory [5][6] Land Sales and New Construction - Land sales are projected to concentrate in first and second-tier cities, with new construction area potentially decreasing significantly by 2027 [6][7] Developer Challenges - Developers are facing increased interest expenses, with the interest coverage ratio for many private companies dropping significantly, raising concerns about their ability to manage debt [8][9] - The report categorizes developers into three groups based on their financial health, highlighting the challenges faced by private developers [13][15] Property Management Sector - The property management sector is viewed as relatively defensive, with expectations of stable fundamentals and potential marginal recovery [14][16]

证券研究报告 2026.01.11 2025 全年二手房库销水平维持稳定 李昊 分析员 张宇 分析员 徐曼迪 联系人 SAC 执证编号：S0080522070007 SFC CE Ref：BSI853 hao5.li@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080512070004 SFC CE Ref：AZB713 eric.zhang@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080124070018 mandi.xu@cicc.com.cn 纵轴：相对值（%） 91 100 109 118 127 136 2025-01 2025-04 2025-07 2025-10 2026-01 沪深300 中金房地产 | 股票 | 股票 | 目标 | P/E (x) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 评级 | 价格 | | 2026E 2027E | | 滨江集团-A | 跑赢行业 | 14.25 | 10.2 | 9.4 | | 招商蛇口-A | 跑赢行业 | 12.20 | 17.9 | 16.4 | | 华润万象生活-H | 跑赢行业 | 48. ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened higher on January 12, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.55% to 26,376.84 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 0.88% to 5,737.43 points, the National Enterprises Index up by 0.75% to 9,116.01 points, and the Red Chip Index gaining 0.68% to 4,129.13 points [1] Company News - Sunny Optical Technology (02382.HK) reported a December smartphone lens shipment of 95.592 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 8.9%. The automotive lens shipment was 7.477 million units, a year-on-year increase of 17.7%. Smartphone camera module shipments were 37.744 million units, down 29.3% year-on-year, primarily due to customer inventory control and holiday factors [2] - Orient Overseas International (00316.HK) reported a 17.2% year-on-year decrease in fourth-quarter shipping revenue to USD 2.081 billion. Total cargo volume increased by 0.8%, and capacity rose by 4.5%. The overall load factor decreased by 3.1% compared to the same period in 2024, with average revenue per standard container down 17.8% year-on-year [2] - China Jinmao (00817.HK) achieved a cumulative contracted sales amount of RMB 113.5 billion for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.52% [3] - R&F Properties (02777.HK) reported total sales revenue of approximately RMB 14.21 billion for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 26.54% [4] - Zhongliang Holdings (02772.HK) reported a cumulative contracted sales amount of approximately RMB 12.07 billion for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 32.68% [5] - Greenland Hong Kong (00337.HK) reported contracted sales of approximately RMB 7.214 billion for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 21.66% [6] - Longyuan Power (00916.HK) completed a cumulative power generation of 76.4694 million MWh for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.22% [7] - Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry (02419.HK) reported sales of 1.1097 million pigs in December, generating revenue of RMB 1.664 billion [8] - COFCO Joycome (01610.HK) reported a December pig output of 567,000 heads, a month-on-month increase of 1.43% [9] - Hengding Industrial (01393.HK) reported a coal production of 5.415 million tons for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 31% [10] Industry Insights - Dongwu Securities suggests that the Hong Kong stock market is entering a period of oscillation and upward movement, emphasizing the importance of dividends as a base and the potential for technology growth in the first half of the year [15] - CITIC Construction Investment highlights the strong performance of copper and aluminum in the recent market, indicating that copper prices are expected to continue rising, with a target of USD 13,000 not being the peak for this cycle [15] - Zhongtai Securities notes that China's rare earths have become a crucial strategic component in the global high-tech industry chain amid increasing Sino-US tech competition, recommending focus on resource companies with high concentration and barriers [16]

Major Events - CATL (03750) plans to issue an additional 34.8584 million shares [1] - MINIMAX-WP (00100) fully exercised its over-allotment option involving a total of 4.3796 million shares [1] - MIRXES-B (02629) established a strategic partnership with N Health, and its HELICORapid and FITRapid home testing kits received regulatory approval [1] - LFG Investment Holdings (03938) was acquired by Chen Shaoyang, who purchased approximately 61.43% of shares at a discount of about 59.46% through a cash offer, with resumption of trading on January 12 [1] - Xiansheng Pharmaceutical (02096) plans to spin off its H-shares for independent listing on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1] - OmniVision Technologies (00501) saw its public offering in Hong Kong oversubscribed by 9.28 times, with a share price of HKD 104.8 [1] - China Nonferrous Mining (01258) released its production guidance for 2026, expecting a total copper output of approximately 484,000 tons [1] - China Rare Earth Holdings (03788) reported a 53.1% increase in JORC ore reserves to 2.62 million ounces, with JORC gold resources rising to 5.54 million ounces [1] - Black Sesame Intelligence (02533) plans to issue a total of 30.1319 million subscription shares, raising approximately HKD 568 million [1] - Shanghai Pharmaceuticals (02607) received approval for the production of bromhexine oral solution [1] - Beijing Energy International (00686) signed an EPC contract for a 100 MW wind power project in Heilongjiang Province [1] - Standard Chartered Group (02888) plans to issue SGD 750 million fixed-rate reset perpetual subordinated convertible securities [1] Share Buybacks/Reductions - Geely Automobile (00175) repurchased 1.547 million shares for HKD 26.6229 million on January 9 [2] - Sunny Optical Technology (02382) repurchased 840,000 shares for HKD 53.9894 million on January 9 [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) repurchased 4 million shares for HKD 151 million on January 9 [2] Operating Performance - China Jinmao (00817) achieved a cumulative contracted sales amount of RMB 113.5 billion for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.52% [2] - Jiumaojiu (09922) reported stable performance for its main brands in the fourth quarter [2] - CIFI Holdings Group (00884) recorded a cumulative contract sales amount of approximately RMB 16.1 billion for 2025 [2] - R&F Properties (02777) reported total sales revenue of approximately RMB 14.21 billion for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 26.54% [2] - Zhongliang Holdings (02772) reported a cumulative contract sales amount of approximately RMB 12.07 billion for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 32.68% [2] - Shui On Land (00272) achieved a cumulative contract property sales amount of RMB 7.916 billion for 2025 [2] Additional Performance Metrics - Greenland Hong Kong (00337) reported contract sales of approximately RMB 7.214 billion for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 21.66% [3] - Yuzhou Group (01628) achieved a cumulative sales amount of RMB 6.727 billion for 2025 [3] - New World Development (01030) reported contract sales of approximately RMB 1.354 billion in December [3] - China Shipbuilding Defense (00317) expects a year-on-year increase of 149.61% to 196.88% in net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 [3] - Longyuan Power (00916) completed a cumulative power generation of 76.4694 million MWh for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.22% [3] - Sunny Optical Technology (02382) reported a December shipment of 95.592 million mobile phone lenses, a year-on-year decrease of 8.9% [3] - COFCO Joycome (01610) reported a December pig output of 567,000 heads, a month-on-month increase of 1.43% [3] - Dekang Agriculture (02419) sold 1.1097 million pigs in December, generating sales revenue of RMB 1.664 billion [3] - Hengding Industrial (01393) reported a coal output of 5.415 million tons for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 31% [3] - Orient Overseas International (00316) reported a 17.2% decrease in quarterly shipping revenue compared to the same period last year, with total cargo volume up 0.8% and carrying capacity up 4.5% [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector [1] Core Insights - The real estate sector is experiencing a significant decline in sales, with a notable drop in both new and second-hand housing transactions across major cities [4][37] - Recent government policies, such as talent attraction initiatives in Nanjing and housing loan optimizations in Shenyang, aim to stimulate demand in the real estate market [6][13] - The overall market performance shows a rebound, with the Shenwan Real Estate Index increasing by 5.07%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index [3][11] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index rose by 5.07%, while the CSI 300 Index increased by 2.79%, indicating a relative outperformance of 2.29% [3][11] 2. Industry Fundamentals - For the week of January 2-8, the total number of new homes sold in 38 key cities was 19,373 units, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 31.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 58.6% [4][21] - The total area sold was 178.5 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 39.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 64.5% [4][21] - In the same week, the total number of second-hand homes sold in 16 key cities was 16,210 units, down 21% year-on-year and 6.9% month-on-month [37][40] 3. Land Market Supply and Transactions - During the week, land supply reached 2,258.2 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 25.3% [5] - However, land transactions fell sharply, with a total area of 2,488.6 million square meters sold, down 62.2% year-on-year [5] 4. Financing Analysis - Real estate companies issued a total of 3.53 billion yuan in credit bonds, marking a year-on-year decrease of 57.67% but a month-on-month increase of 411.59% [5] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on financially stable leading real estate companies such as Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and Yuexiu Property, which are expected to navigate market fluctuations effectively [6] - Property management companies like China Resources Mixc Life and Poly Property are also highlighted as potential beneficiaries of market recovery [6]

Core Insights - The Beijing new housing market in 2025 has seen a significant concentration of sales, with China State Construction and China Overseas Land & Investment both surpassing 30 billion yuan in sales, capturing a combined market share of 26.5% [1][2] - The top 20 real estate companies accounted for nearly 80% of the market, indicating a new high in industry concentration [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - In 2025, the total sales amount for new residential properties in Beijing reached 268.57 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.7% [2] - The top 20 companies increased their market share by 4.4 percentage points year-on-year, now holding approximately 77% of the market [2] - The top 10 companies captured about 60% of the market share, an increase of 2.6 percentage points year-on-year [2] Group 2: Company Rankings - China State Construction ranked first in the sales amount with 224.51 billion yuan, followed by China Overseas Land & Investment with 214.43 billion yuan, and Beijing China Overseas New City with 211.29 billion yuan [3][4] - Other notable companies include Beijing China Overseas with 148.16 billion yuan and China Merchants Shekou with 135.33 billion yuan, with several companies exceeding 100 billion yuan in sales [3][4] Group 3: Land Acquisition and Key Projects - China State Construction's significant land acquisitions in 2025 included key plots in Chaoyang, contributing to its top sales performance [4] - The company partnered with China Jinmao and Yuexiu Property to secure a major redevelopment site in Chaoyang for 12.6 billion yuan, which became a key project for sales [4] - China Overseas New City has been active in the Shijingshan and Xicheng districts, with notable projects contributing to its sales figures [5] Group 4: Market Trends - The Beijing real estate market is undergoing a deep adjustment and structural reshaping, with a shift from speculation to residential focus [6] - The supply of luxury properties and land is accelerating, indicating a trend that is expected to continue [6] - Companies are advised to focus on high-end improvement or quality demand segments to maintain competitiveness in a highly concentrated market [6]