农林牧渔行业 超配（维持） 农林牧渔行业双周报（2025/11/14-2025/11/27） 行 业 牧原股份赴港上市获证监会备案 2025 年 11 月 28 日 投资要点： 风险提示：疫病大规模爆发，价格下行，自然灾害，市场竞争加剧等。 资料来源：iFinD ，东莞证券研究 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn SW农林牧渔行业略跑赢沪深300指数。2025年11月14日—2025年11月27日， SW农林牧渔行业下跌3.79%，跑赢同期沪深300指数约0.18个百分点；细分 板块中，仅渔业录得正收益，上涨7.89%；动物保健、种植业、养殖业、 饲料和农产品加工均录得负收益，分别下跌0.85%、3.31%、3.34%、4.76% 和7.96%。估值方面，截至2025年11月27日，SW农林牧渔行业指数整体PB （整体法，最新报告期，剔除负值）约2.80倍 ...

Group 1: Shareholding Changes - The National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund reduced its stake in Saiwei Electronics from 5.88% to 4.999986% by selling 6.4278 million shares, which is a decrease of 1% [1] - The fund previously reduced its holdings from 6.95% to 5.88% by selling 7.836718 million shares, also a decrease of 1% [1] - Jiangsu Boyun's shareholder, Blue Three Venture Capital, plans to reduce its stake by up to 1%, amounting to 971,300 shares [5] Group 2: Corporate Actions - Chenshan Technology is planning to issue A-shares to Hefei State Investment, which may lead to a change in company control, and the stock will be suspended from trading for up to 2 days [2] - Haichang New Materials intends to acquire 51% of Shenzhen Xinwei Communications for 234.6 million yuan, gaining control over the company [3] - Yuanli Co. plans to acquire 100% of Fujian Tongsheng New Materials for 470 million yuan, aiming to enhance its strategic layout in the silicon dioxide sector [4] Group 3: Share Buybacks and Increases - Mindray Medical's chairman, Li Xiting, plans to increase his stake in the company by 200 million yuan, having already purchased 152,340 shares at an average price of 196.862 yuan per share [6] Group 4: Product Approvals and Innovations - Ruipu Biotech received a new veterinary drug registration certificate for a tri-valent inactivated vaccine for cats, enhancing its competitive edge in the companion animal health sector [7] - Tianli Lithium Energy obtained two invention patents related to lithium-ion battery electrode materials, which may improve its innovation capabilities [7]

| 新兽药名称 | 研制单位 | 类别 | 新兽药注册证号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 猫鼻气管炎、杯状病毒病、 | 瑞普生物股份有限公司、天津 | | | | 泛白细胞减少症三联灭活 | | | | | | 瑞普生物技术股份有限公司空 | | （2025）新兽药证字 | | 疫 苗 （ 株 RPVF0304 | | 三类 | | | | 港经济区分公司、瑞普（保定） | | 127 号 | | +RPVF0207 株 +RPVF0110 | | | | | | 生物药业有限公司 | | | | 株） | | | | 证券代码：300119 证券简称：瑞普生物 公告编号：2025-091 瑞普生物股份有限公司 关于取得新兽药注册证书的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误 导性陈述或重大遗漏。 瑞普生物股份有限公司（以下简称"公司""瑞普生物"）自主研制的猫鼻 气管炎、杯状病毒病、泛白细胞减少症三联灭活疫苗（RPVF0304 株+RPVF0207 株+RPVF0110 株）于 2023 年 8 月 22 日通过农业农村部组织的应急评价， ...

Group 1 - The pig farming industry has been experiencing continuous losses for 10 weeks, currently in a moderate loss state, with an average loss of 135 RMB per head in major production areas, which is an increase of 21 RMB from the previous week [1][2] - The national average price for live pigs is 11.64 RMB per kilogram, down 0.09 RMB from the previous week, while the average price for 15-kilogram piglets remains stable at 23.86 RMB per kilogram [1][2] - The industry is facing three pressures: declining market prices, rising epidemic risks, and policy pressures, leading to an expected increase in the motivation for capacity reduction [1][2] Group 2 - The slaughtering situation is stable, with a year-on-year increase of 18.7% in pig output from 17 listed companies in October, indicating a short-term supply surplus [2] - The operating rate of large-scale slaughter enterprises is 35.85%, up 1.48 percentage points from the previous week and 4.49 percentage points from the same period last year [2] - The total number of breeding sows in the country is 40.35 million, a decrease of 30,000 from the previous month and 370,000 from the peak at the end of last year [2] Group 3 - The valuation of most listed breeding companies is at historical lows, indicating significant potential for long-term investment [3][6] - The chicken industry is experiencing low price fluctuations, with broiler prices at historical lows, but there is potential for price increases in the medium term due to supply trends [4] - The yellow chicken prices have been rising, influenced by seasonal demand recovery, while the industry capacity remains at historically low levels [5][6] Group 4 - The animal health industry has shown signs of recovery, with optimistic performance expected in the third-quarter reports of major listed companies [7] - Prices for key antibiotics remain high, and there is significant growth in the sales of domestic vaccines, indicating a positive outlook for companies engaged in pet health [7]

Core Viewpoint - The livestock farming industry is expected to experience a resonance of cycles and growth opportunities by 2026, with the swine sector reaching a critical point of de-stocking, leading to potential value recovery for cost-leading enterprises. The beef industry is projected to maintain a high prosperity cycle until 2027, while the poultry sector shows a clear upward price trend due to supply contraction [1]. Swine Sector - The swine sector is witnessing a significant slowdown in production capacity due to ongoing losses and declining pig prices, reaching a de-stocking critical point. Leading companies with low-cost advantages are expected to realize value release, with recommendations for companies like Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Dekang Agriculture. Smaller pig farming companies with growth potential are also suggested for attention [2]. Beef Sector - The beef sector is in a high prosperity cycle, with slow supply recovery and rising global beef prices driven by import policy restrictions. The main upward wave of the cycle is anticipated to begin in 2026, with recommendations for companies such as Youran Dairy, Modern Farming, and China Shengmu Organic Milk [3]. Poultry Sector - In the poultry sector, the yellow chicken segment is experiencing capacity de-stocking due to continuous losses, although parent stock remains high. Companies with rapid capacity expansion and strong cost control, such as Lihua Agricultural Science and Technology, are favored. The white feather chicken segment is awaiting a cycle reversal, with recommendations for integrated leaders like Shennong Development and upstream chick leaders like Yisheng Livestock and Poultry [4]. Feed Sector - The feed sector emphasizes cost control and industry chain extension, focusing on companies with strong cost management capabilities and established overseas operations. Recommended companies include Haida Group and Bangji Technology [5]. Animal Health Sector - The animal health sector highlights the importance of research and innovation, recommending companies that can avoid price wars. Key focuses include product layout in the pet segment and breakthroughs in high-value pet pharmaceuticals. Recommended companies include Reap Bio, which benefits from the recovery of livestock prices, and companies like Kexin Bio, Plank Bio, and Zhongmu Bio with strong competitive advantages [6]. Planting Industry - The planting industry is expected to see grain prices stabilize, influenced by high production and inventory levels. Grain security remains a priority, with a shift from cyclical to growth valuations in the seed industry. Recommended companies include Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development, with attention to seed companies like Kangnong Seed Industry and Longping High-Tech [7]. Pet Industry - The pet industry is thriving, driven by domestic demand and exports, with rapid growth of domestic brands. Key companies to watch include pet food brands like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., and pet supplies companies like Yuanfei Pet and Tianyuan Pet [8].

Group 1 - The SW Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery industry outperformed the CSI 300 index, with an overall increase of 16.36% from January to November 2025, surpassing the index by approximately 3.18 percentage points [12][13][14] - All sub-sectors within the industry recorded positive returns, with significant increases in animal health (36.27%), fishery (35.22%), agricultural product processing (21.88%), feed (12.48%), breeding (11.53%), and planting (8.49%) [13] - Approximately 83% of stocks in the industry achieved positive returns, with around 5% of stocks increasing by over 100%, and 17% recording negative returns [14][17] Group 2 - The breeding industry is experiencing a gradual reduction in the number of breeding sows, with a current stock of 40.35 million heads, which is 1.1% lower than the previous year [23][24] - The price of live pigs has shown a downward trend in 2025, with an average price of 11.65 yuan/kg as of November 24, down 26% from the beginning of the year, but is expected to gradually recover in 2026 [26] - The profitability of pig farming has turned negative, with self-breeding losses at 135.9 yuan per head and external piglet purchases at 234.63 yuan per head, but a recovery is anticipated in 2026 [31] Group 3 - The meat chicken breeding sector faced challenges in profitability during 2025, with the average price of broiler chicks fluctuating and a significant decline in profitability [33][35] - The supply of yellow feathered chickens is expected to remain relatively abundant in 2026, with a high stock of breeding chickens [45][47] - The overall feed production in China is projected to continue its recovery, with a total production of 15.85 million tons in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [50] Group 4 - The prices of feed raw materials such as corn and soybean meal have shown fluctuations, with corn prices recovering from a low of 2115.59 yuan/ton to around 2300.88 yuan/ton by late November 2025 [52][53] - The global supply of corn is expected to remain ample, with a projected production of 128.6 million tons for the 2025/26 season, indicating limited price recovery potential [55] - The overall market for pet food in China is anticipated to grow, with an increase in exports and a rising domestic market [38][40]

Economic News - The call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Trump highlighted the positive trajectory of China-US relations since their meeting in Busan, emphasizing mutual benefits and cooperation [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has proposed a new safety standard for mobile power supplies, which is significantly stricter than previous standards, potentially impacting production capabilities of many factories [2] - The successful launch of the Shenzhou-22 spacecraft marks China's first emergency launch mission in its manned space program, carrying essential supplies for the space station [2] - A new quantum computer factory in Shenzhen has been established, capable of producing a quantum computer with 1000 qubits, aiming for standardized and large-scale manufacturing [2] - The Heilongjiang provincial government is focusing on developing emerging industries and enhancing innovation in its 14th Five-Year Plan, including sectors like aerospace and new materials [2] Company Insights - Industrial Fulian reported that its fourth-quarter operations are proceeding as planned, with no adjustments to profit targets, indicating strong customer demand [6] - Tianqi Lithium's chairman noted a significant increase in demand for lithium materials driven by renewable energy and electric vehicles, predicting a balanced supply-demand scenario by 2026 [7] - Lianrui New Materials has received approval for its convertible bond issuance, which is set to be listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange [7] Industry Analysis - The banking sector is experiencing a decline in social financing growth, with October's social financing increasing by only 8.5% year-on-year, reflecting a decrease in government bond financing and overall credit demand [8][9] - The credit market is showing signs of seasonal decline, with a year-on-year increase in RMB loans of only 6.5%, indicating weaker corporate credit demand and a shift towards retail lending [10] - The logistics industry is facing a slowdown in growth, with the volume of express deliveries in October increasing by only 7.9% year-on-year, attributed to changing consumer behavior during promotional events [13][14] - The express delivery sector is witnessing a divergence in strategies among major companies, with some focusing on market share while others prioritize price increases, impacting overall revenue dynamics [16]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Reap Bio (300119.SZ), currently does not have a specific vaccine for the H5N5 avian influenza, but its existing H5+H7 vaccine theoretically offers good protection against the prevalent H5N5 strain due to its genetic components [1] Group 1 - The company and the domestic market currently lack a dedicated H5N5 avian influenza vaccine [1] - The H5N5 strain circulating abroad belongs to the clade 2.3.4.4b genetic branch, which is crucial for evaluating vaccine efficacy [1] - The existing H5+H7 vaccine contains components of the clade 2.3.4.4b strain, suggesting it can provide adequate protection [1]

Core Viewpoint - The animal health sector experienced a slight decline of 0.2% on November 24, with *ST Lvkang leading the drop [1][2] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3836.77, up 0.05% - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12585.08, up 0.37% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the animal health sector included: - Shenlian Biological (688098) with a closing price of 9.57, up 2.57% on a trading volume of 55,100 shares and a turnover of 52.32 million yuan - Yongshun Biological (920729) at 8.95, up 1.59% with a trading volume of 15,900 shares and a turnover of 14.22 million yuan - Xianfeng Holdings (002141) at 3.98, up 1.53% with a trading volume of 694,200 shares and a turnover of 275 million yuan [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The animal health sector saw a net outflow of 35.49 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 31.36 million yuan [2][3] - The overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment, with institutional investors withdrawing funds while retail investors increased their positions [3] Stock-Specific Capital Flow - Key stocks with significant capital flow include: - Dayu Biological (920970) with a net inflow of 1.55 million yuan from institutional investors - Pulaike (603566) with a net inflow of 0.99 million yuan from institutional investors - Shenlian Biological (688098) faced a net outflow of 2.88 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Core Insights - The Chinese pet market is experiencing rapid growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.3%, making it the fastest-growing pet market globally [1] - The number of pet owners among the post-2000 generation is expected to exceed 20 million in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 164% and accounting for 25.6% of total pet owners [1] - The average annual spending per pet is currently 2,419 yuan, with a shift towards a "parenting-style" approach to pet ownership among younger generations, leading to increased demand for personalized pet products and services [1] Industry Trends - The pet industry in China has seen a compound growth rate of 10% over the past six years, significantly outpacing the growth of total retail sales [1] - The market is projected to exceed 300 billion yuan in 2024 and is expected to surpass 400 billion yuan by 2027, with a cumulative growth of approximately 33% over three years [4] - Key drivers of this growth include economic development, rising incomes, urbanization, demographic changes, shifts in consumer attitudes, and improvements in policy and social environments [4] Investment Opportunities - Five pet companies presented at the investment conference, focusing on areas such as pet healthcare, food, smart hardware, and service chains [4] - There is potential for deep collaboration in the pet industry across various dimensions, including technological innovation in pet healthcare and nutrition, supply chain integration, and international market expansion [5] - Companies are encouraged to focus on niche markets, develop high-end functional products, and leverage technology to enhance operational efficiency and user engagement [5]