Core Viewpoint - In October, China's steel exports decreased to 9.782 million tons, down 683,000 tons from September, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 6.5% and a year-on-year decline of 12.5% [1][2] Group 1: Export Data - Cumulative steel exports from January to October reached 97.737 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [2] - The global manufacturing PMI is stabilizing, and China's steel export order index has returned to the expansion zone, enhancing the competitiveness of steel export prices [2] - The export price of hot-rolled coils (FOB) is $445 per ton, which is $45 to $95 lower than major exporting countries like India, Turkey, and Japan [2] Group 2: Regional and Country-Specific Trends - Exports to West Asia, Africa, and South America increased by 6.7%, 30.4%, and 17% respectively from January to October, while exports to Southeast Asia, East Asia, and North America decreased by 0.8%, 9.7%, and 20.7% [2] - Exports to Vietnam and South Korea, the top two destinations, fell by 25.8% and 11.8% respectively due to anti-dumping tax measures, while exports to Thailand, the Philippines, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia increased by 12.6%, 11.2%, 6.8%, and 19.1% respectively [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The potential for steel consumption in countries along the "Belt and Road" is expected to benefit China's steel exports next year, helping to alleviate domestic demand pressures [3] - Indirect steel exports, which include machinery and electrical products, are projected to grow, with the total import and export value of machinery and electrical products increasing by 6.8% year-on-year to $271.78 billion [3] - The export of integrated circuits rose by 23.7% year-on-year to $161.69 billion, while automotive exports increased by 13.4% to $111.44 billion [3] Group 4: Supply and Inventory Trends - The supply of five major steel products reached 8.4991 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 15,530 tons, reflecting a 1.9% growth [4] - Total inventory of five major steel products decreased to 14.331 million tons, down 442,500 tons week-on-week, a decline of 3% [4] - Weekly consumption of five major products was 8.9416 million tons, with construction materials and sheet consumption increasing by 5.3% and 3.2% respectively [4] Group 5: Profitability and Investment Recommendations - The profitability of 247 steel mills is at 37.66%, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 1.3 percentage points, marking 15 consecutive weeks of decline [4] - Investment suggestions include focusing on high-dividend and high-return companies in the construction sector, such as Hualing Steel and Baosteel [5] - The special steel sector is expected to grow due to policy support and the demand for high-end special steel materials, with companies like Nanjing Steel and CITIC Special Steel recommended for future attention [6]

Core Insights - The article discusses the growth and production statistics of China's welded steel pipe industry, highlighting a production increase in 2025 [1][2]. Industry Overview - In September 2025, China's welded steel pipe production reached 5.49 million tons, marking a year-on-year growth of 1.8% [1]. - Cumulatively, from January to September 2025, the total production of welded steel pipes in China was 44.935 million tons, reflecting a cumulative growth of 3.2% [1]. Related Companies - The article lists several companies involved in the welded steel pipe industry, including Baosteel Co., Ltd. (600019), Xinxing Cathay International Group (000778), Changbao Steel Pipe (002478), Jiuli Special Materials (002318), Honglu Steel Structure (002541), Youfa Group (601686), CITIC Special Steel (000708), Jinzhu Pipeline (002443), and Yulong Steel (601028) [1].

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨钢铁 [Table_Title] 2025 钢铁碳配额新政发布，影响几何？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年开始，钢铁企业的配额将与该企业的碳排放强度挂钩。通过计算代表行业碳排放平均水 平的行业平衡值（BP），根据钢企碳排放强度（X）与 BP 的大小，将钢企分为三个档次。1） 碳排放强度小于行业平衡值 20%以上的企业（X≤80%BP）为优秀梯度，这些碳排放水平领先 行业的钢企将获得 1.03 倍的配额。2）碳排放强度与行业平衡值差距在 20%以内的企业为中等 梯度（80%BP<X<120%BP），将获得 1+15%[(BP-X)/BP]倍的配额。3）碳排放强度大于行业平 衡值 20%的企业（X≥120%BP）为落后梯度，排放水平落后行业的企业将获得 0.97 倍配额。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 赵超 易轰 吕士诚 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490520080012 SAC：S0490525080005 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUY139 SFC：BUZ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and New Steel [8]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a short-term adjustment, with the market showing signs of stabilization after recent fluctuations. The overall valuation of major companies has improved but remains rational [2][4]. - The report highlights that the fourth quarter is likely to see a slowdown in economic activity compared to the previous quarters, but the risk of a significant downturn is low. Measures such as the implementation of a 500 billion yuan policy financial tool are expected to support the economy [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-side adjustments in the steel industry, noting that administrative measures could accelerate the return of industry profits to average levels [2][4]. - The report identifies several companies as undervalued with strong safety margins, suggesting potential investment opportunities [2]. Supply Analysis - Daily molten iron production has decreased by 0.7 thousand tons to 236.2 thousand tons, while steel production has increased, with rebar production growing faster than hot-rolled products [12]. - The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 88.6%, with a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous week [18]. Inventory Analysis - The total inventory of steel has decreased by 3.0% week-on-week, with a significant year-on-year increase of 26.7% [24][26]. - The report notes that the inventory reduction is consistent across both social and mill inventories, indicating a tightening supply situation [24][26]. Demand Analysis - Apparent consumption of the five major steel products has improved, with a week-on-week increase of 3.9% [51]. - The average weekly transaction volume for construction steel has increased by 0.3% [40][41]. Raw Material Analysis - Iron ore prices have strengthened, with increased shipments from Australia and Brazil, while port inventories have slightly decreased [48][60]. - The report indicates that the iron ore price index is currently at 104.8 USD/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.1% [60]. Price and Profit Analysis - The report notes a slight increase in steel prices, with the comprehensive steel price index rising by 0.5% week-on-week [74]. - The current profit margins for long-process steel products remain negative, with costs for rebar and hot-rolled products reported at 3,556 yuan/ton and 3,782 yuan/ton, respectively [74][80].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel sector experienced a decline of 7.02% this week, underperforming the broader market, with specific segments such as long products down by 9.67% and flat products down by 7.38% [2][10] - Despite current supply-demand challenges and overall profit decline, the steel demand is expected to stabilize or slightly increase due to government policies aimed at economic growth, particularly in real estate and infrastructure [3][2] - The report suggests that the steel industry is likely to maintain a balanced supply-demand situation, with a focus on high-margin specialty steel companies and leading firms with strong cost control [3][2] Supply Situation - As of November 21, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces among sample steel companies is 88.6%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points week-on-week [2][25] - The production of five major steel products reached 7.412 million tons, an increase of 2.08% week-on-week [2][25] Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products was 8.942 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.90% [2][30] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 100,000 tons, a slight increase of 0.24% week-on-week [2][35] Inventory Situation - Social inventory of five major steel products decreased by 3.01% week-on-week to 10.294 million tons, while factory inventory also saw a decline of 2.95% to 4.037 million tons [2][43] Steel Prices & Profits - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,438.3 CNY/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.47% [2][49] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces was -30 CNY/ton, while the profit for electric arc furnace-produced construction steel was -112 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 27.74% [2][55] Raw Material Situation - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) was 793 CNY/ton, up by 0.89% week-on-week [2][72] - The price for coking coal at the main stockpile in Jingtang Port was 1,790 CNY/ton, down by 40 CNY/ton week-on-week [2][72] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on regional leaders with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as companies benefiting from the new energy cycle and those with strong competitive advantages in raw material supply [3][2]

根据中国海关数据显示：2025年10月中国钢材进口数量为50万吨，同比下降6.2%，进口金额为8.01亿美 元，同比下降15.4%，2025年10月中国钢材出口数量为978万吨，同比下降12.3%，出口金额为66.95亿美 元，同比下降14.4%。 近一年中国钢材进口情况统计图 上市企业：钒钛股份（000629），中信特钢（000708），鞍钢股份（000898），华菱钢铁（000932）， 首钢股份（000959），大中矿业（001203），沙钢股份（002075），三钢闽光（002110），久立特材 （002318），包钢股份（600010），宝钢股份（600019），山东钢铁（600022），安阳钢铁 （600569），八一钢铁（600581）新钢股份（600782），马钢股份（600808），柳钢股份（601003）， 重庆钢铁（601005） 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国钢材深加工行业竞争格局分析及投资发展研究报告》 近一年中国钢材出口情况统计图 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产 ...

证券之星消息，11月21日特钢板块较上一交易日下跌2.56%，盛德鑫泰领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3834.89，下跌2.45%。深证成指报收于12538.07，下跌3.41%。特钢板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入(元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002443 | 全州管道 | 124.32万 | 1.30% | -11.03万 | -0.12% | -113.29万 | -1.19% | | 002478 | 常宝股份 | 50.52万 | 0.19% | -1078.80万 | -4.04% | 1028.28万 | 3.85% | | 301160 | 翔楼新材 | -300.50万 | -3.63% | 479.43万 | 5.79% | -178.93万 | -2.16% | | 603995 角金股份 | | -370.45万 | -2.52% | 1647.16万 | 11.22% | -1276.7 ...

Core Views - The steel industry is expected to face oversupply issues in 2026, with prices likely to remain volatile [4][49] - The trend of "anti-involution" continues, with supply-side reforms expected to constrain crude steel production by 5%-10% [3][4] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply remains robust, with iron water production at a high level; as of November 2025, the average daily iron water output was 2.38 million tons, up 3.7% year-on-year [3][8] - Steel production is projected to decline slightly in 2025, with a cumulative crude steel output of 820 million tons, down 4% year-on-year [3][15] - Demand for steel is expected to see a slight increase in 2025, driven by plate steel, while long steel products face challenges; total apparent steel consumption reached 930 million tons, up 5% year-on-year [3][22] Price Trends - Steel prices are anticipated to decline in 2025, with an expected range of 3000-3500 RMB/ton; the price is projected to stabilize in 2026 [3][4] - The decline in coking coal prices is expected to contribute to lower steel prices, with iron ore prices also having room to decrease [3][4] Profitability Outlook - The steel industry is expected to maintain profitability in 2025 due to declining costs, with average gross margins at their best levels from 2021 to 2025 [3][4] - The anticipated recovery in rebar prices to around 3500 RMB/ton could lead to an increase in profitability by 50-100 RMB/ton [3][4] Investment Strategy - Focus on product structure transformation and high-growth segments; recommended companies include Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel [3][4] - Investment lines for 2026 include stable profits from leading steel companies and opportunities in downstream sectors with strong profitability [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The black metal industry is entering a long-cycle peak phase, with both supply and demand sides experiencing low growth or gradual decline. However, the inherent demand rigidity prevents an immediate recession, providing opportunities for asset enhancement and valuation improvement for leading companies [4][26] - Supply-side adjustments are focused on further concentration and reasonable control of total capacity, with significant consolidation in the coal and steel industries [3][4] - Demand is shifting towards domestic manufacturing and new export markets, with a decreasing reliance on real estate [4][26] Summary by Sections Pricing Cycle, Cost Structure, and Profit Distribution - The pricing framework indicates a high correlation between supply and demand in the black metal industry, with supply-side policies significantly influencing production changes [11][14] - The cost structure highlights that iron ore and coal prices are core components of production costs, with iron ore accounting for approximately 53% of the high furnace ironmaking costs [27][28] - Profit distribution shows that upstream mining resources enjoy the highest profit margins, while steel and coke producers face more pressure [30][31] Industry Chain Map and Pricing Framework - The black metal industry chain includes coal, iron ore, coke, and steel, with coal being a primary raw material for coke production [8][9] - The pricing framework emphasizes the strong linkage between coal, coke, and steel prices, driven by supply and demand dynamics [11][14] Fundamental Cycle and Supply-Demand Transition Paths - The supply cycle is characterized by a peak phase, with capacity growth slowing and structural adjustments underway [37][40] - The demand cycle is closely aligned with macroeconomic trends, with a notable shift towards manufacturing and export markets [4][26] - The transition path for demand indicates a reduction in steel consumption for real estate, with manufacturing and export demand becoming more prominent [4][26]

Market Overview - The special steel sector experienced a decline of 0.37% on November 20, with Changbao Co. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3931.05, down 0.4%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12980.82, down 0.76% [1] Stock Performance - Notable stock performances in the special steel sector include: - Shagang Co. closed at 5.61, up 0.36% with a trading volume of 219,500 shares and a turnover of 123 million yuan - Fushun Special Steel remained unchanged at 5.50 with a trading volume of 355,900 shares and a turnover of 195 million yuan - CITIC Special Steel closed at 15.03, unchanged with a trading volume of 159,900 shares and a turnover of 242 million yuan - Changbao Co. closed at 7.42, down 1.20% with a trading volume of 297,600 shares and a turnover of 22.3 million yuan [1][2] Capital Flow - The special steel sector saw a net outflow of 52.883 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 53.626 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for specific stocks indicates: - South Jin Co. had a net inflow of 2.2815 million yuan from institutional investors - CITIC Special Steel experienced a net outflow of 6.8486 million yuan from institutional investors [3]