证券研究报告 行业研究 / 行业点评 2026 年 02 月 02 日 行业及产业 机械设备 一年内行业指数与沪深 300 指数对比走势： 《芯碁微装（688630.SH）首次覆盖：PCB 与 先进封装共振，直写光刻龙头乘势起》 2025-12-12 王凯 S0820524120002 021-32229888-25522 wangkai526@ajzq.com 资料来源：聚源数据，爱建证券研究所 相关研究 《智能制造行业周报：SpaceX 推进星链升级与 IPO 进程》2026-01-26 《以第一性原理推演中国商业航天降本革命— —商业航天行业深度系列（一)》2026-01-21 《智能制造行业周报：看好 2026 年中国商业 航天产业拐点确立》2026-01-20 《神开股份（002278.SZ）首次覆盖报告：深 海装备国产化破局，AI 驱动数字油服商业模式 升级》2025-12-20 ——智能制造行业周报（2026/01/26-2026/01/30） SpaceX 申请百万颗卫星，卫星互联网产业 化提速 强于大市 投资要点： 本周行情：本周（2026/01/26-2026/01/30）沪深 300 指 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the semiconductor industry [1]. Core Insights - The demand for AI-related chips is driving significant growth in the wafer foundry sector, with TSMC's revenue reaching NT$1.05 trillion in Q4 2025, a 20.45% year-on-year increase, marking a historical high for a single quarter [6][8]. - The global advanced process capacity is expected to accelerate, with SEMI predicting that the capacity for 7nm and below advanced logic processes will grow from approximately 850,000 wafers per month in 2024 to 1.4 million wafers per month by 2028 [6][12]. - Domestic companies in China need to accelerate their technological upgrades and capacity expansions to catch up with global leaders like TSMC and Samsung, as their market share in advanced processes remains significantly low [6][11]. - The import of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in China is projected to reach a historical high of CNY 360.28 billion in 2025, indicating a strong signal for accelerated capacity expansion in advanced processes [12][13]. - The report suggests focusing on semiconductor companies such as Northern Huachuang, Zhongwei Company, Jiangfeng Electronics, and others for investment opportunities [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Global Advanced Process Wafer Foundry Development - AI computing chip demand is propelling the wafer foundry industry to new heights, with TSMC's revenue growth and a projected global wafer foundry market size increase from USD 155.6 billion in 2024 to USD 268.3 billion by 2032 [6][8]. - The complexity and larger size of AI GPU chips require more advanced process capacity, leading to a higher demand for wafer foundry services [8][9]. 2. Domestic Market in China - China's wafer foundry industry has seen rapid expansion in mature processes, but advanced process capacity and technology development face significant challenges due to export restrictions from Western countries [9][11]. - In 2021, China's share in the global advanced process wafer foundry market was only 5%, highlighting the need for further development [11]. 3. Semiconductor Equipment Imports - The import of semiconductor equipment in China is expected to reach CNY 360.28 billion in 2025, with significant investments in critical lithography equipment [12][13]. - ASML's revenue from lithography systems is projected to be EUR 24.474 billion in 2025, with 33% of that coming from the Chinese market, indicating strong demand for advanced manufacturing equipment [12][13].

Investment Rating - The mechanical equipment sector is rated as "stronger than the market" based on its relative performance compared to the CSI 300 index [2][25]. Core Insights - The mechanical equipment sector experienced a decline of 3.49% this week, while the CSI 300 index increased by 0.08%. The best-performing sub-sector was other automation equipment, which rose by 2.93% [2][3][4]. - The report highlights the potential growth in the satellite internet industry, particularly with SpaceX's application to launch up to 1 million satellites, which could enhance AI applications and create a stable business model in China [2]. - In the semiconductor equipment sector, ASML's recent performance exceeded expectations, indicating strong demand and a positive outlook for global wafer fabrication capacity [2]. - The humanoid robot segment is expected to benefit from advancements in hardware architecture and AI capabilities, with companies like Tesla planning to ramp up production of humanoid robots [2]. - The report also discusses the advancements in nuclear fusion technology, with the FLAME device achieving significant experimental progress, potentially offering a more economical path for commercialization [2]. Summary by Sections Mechanical Equipment Sector - The sector's PE-TTM valuation decreased by 3.35%, with notable declines in refrigeration and air conditioning equipment (-7.41%) and printing and packaging machinery (-7.09%) [2][8]. - The report recommends focusing on companies such as North Huachuang (002371) and Shengmei Shanghai (688082) in the semiconductor equipment space [2]. Commercial Aerospace - Companies to watch include Western Materials (002149), Yingliu Co., Ltd. (603308), and Srey New Materials (688102) as the low-orbit satellite network evolves into a "space information infrastructure platform" [2]. Semiconductor Equipment - ASML's Q4 2025 results showed a net sales of €9.7 billion and a gross margin of 52.2%, with a strong order backlog indicating sustained demand [2]. Humanoid Robots - The report emphasizes the advancements in humanoid robots, particularly with Tesla's Optimus robot, which is set to begin mass production by the end of 2026 [2]. Nuclear Fusion - The report highlights the progress in fusion technology, particularly the FRC approach, which could significantly reduce construction costs compared to traditional methods [2].

Group 1: Macro Insights - The report highlights that the recent volatility in gold and silver prices is primarily driven by market momentum reversals, with silver attracting high leverage and speculative funds since November 2025 [2][5] - The report anticipates that after the appointment of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, there will be more interest rate cuts than the market expects, with short-term U.S. Treasury yields likely to decline [2][4] - The report notes that the recent decline in the manufacturing PMI does not indicate a weakening economy, as it reflects a temporary fluctuation rather than a downward trend [10] Group 2: Commodity Market Analysis - The report indicates that the recent crash in silver prices has led to liquidity risks that may spread to other commodities, particularly in the non-ferrous metals sector [5][6] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the support levels for gold prices, particularly the 60-day moving average, which is currently at $4,400 per ounce [5] - The report suggests that the Shanghai Futures Exchange has implemented measures to manage the risk of a one-sided market in silver futures [5] Group 3: Equity Market Outlook - The report predicts a rebound in the A-share market following the Spring Festival, driven by positive sentiment from performance forecasts and new developments in sectors like AI applications and commercial aerospace [6][10] - It advises a balanced ETF allocation in domestic equities, reflecting a cautious yet optimistic outlook for the market [11] Group 4: Bond Market Perspective - The report notes that the bond market is expected to see increased buying activity due to risk aversion and expectations of monetary easing, with 10-year yields projected to decline to around 1.80% [7][10] - It highlights that the recent adjustments in risk appetite have created trading opportunities in government bonds as a hedge against stock market volatility [4][7]

2月2日，市场震荡调整，半导体板块跟随大盘回调。截至14:10，中证半导体材料设备主题指数下跌 3.7%。Wind数据显示，多只半导体设备相关ETF盘中获资金加仓，其中半导体设备ETF易方达 （159558）净申购约2000万份。 中证半导体材料设备主题指数聚焦半导体设备与半导体材料领域，根据申万三级行业分类，指数半导体 设备占比超60%，半导体材料占比约20%，权重股覆盖中微公司、北方华创、拓荆科技、长川科技、华 海清科等行业龙头，在国产化趋势中具备较强弹性，投资者可通过半导体设备ETF易方达（159558）等 跟踪该指数的产品一键把握产业发展机遇。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 国泰海通证券指出，ASML去年第四季度新增订单额飙升至132亿欧元，达市场预期近两倍；KLA同期 总收入32.97亿美元，同比增长7.2%，均反映AI驱动下设备订单爆发式增长与客户扩产升级的强劲动 能。设备订单高增与业绩指引上修共同确认半导体设备行业已进入强劲上升通道，为上游国产设备厂商 提供明确需求支撑。 ...

东方证券发布研报称，海外存储巨头SK海力士与闪迪(SNDK.US)业绩强劲，且下季指引乐观，印证存 储行业供不应求。AI推理需求正成为存储增长核心动力，将持续拉动数据中心对DRAM和NAND的需 求。同时，NOR Flash等利基存储因产能被主流产品挤压，供给大幅收缩，预计紧缺与涨价态势将延 续，国内相关厂商有望受益。 东方证券主要观点如下： 事件 SK海力士、三星、闪迪等海外头部存储厂商近日先后发布最新一季财报。 海外存储巨头业绩强劲 SK海力士25Q4营收32.8万亿韩元，环比增长34%；营业利润19.2万亿韩元，环比增长68%；营业利润率 达58%，均创下季度新高。闪迪2026Q2财季营业收入30.25亿美元，同比增长61%，环比增长31%；毛利 率达51%。闪迪预计2026Q3财季营收为44-48亿美元，按中值计算环比增长52%，毛利率预计达 65%-67%。该行认为，SK海力士、闪迪业绩强劲，下季度指引乐观，充分体现存储供不应求情况有望 持续。 AI需求有望被持续挖掘，带动存储供不应求持续 部分投资者担忧消费电子需求可能承压，影响存储需求。但该行认为，AI算力等相关需求在存储需求 中逐步占据主导地位 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a collective decline on February 2, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 1.13%. The food and beverage, banking, and beauty care sectors showed positive performance, while non-ferrous metals and oil and petrochemicals faced significant declines. The chip sector remained sluggish, with the chip ETF (159995.SZ) down by 3.53% and key stocks like Wen Tai Technology down by 10.00%, Beijing Junzheng down by 9.14%, and Zhaoyi Innovation down by 8.25% [1][2] Group 2 - According to market research firm TrendForce, due to major DRAM manufacturers shifting advanced processes and new capacities to meet AI server demands, the overall supply in the market is severely tight. It is expected that the contract price of general-purpose DRAM will increase by 55% to 60% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2026 [3] - Donghai Securities indicated that industry demand is slowly recovering, with AI investments exceeding expectations and storage chip price increases also surpassing forecasts. The market currently has a relatively high level of funding enthusiasm, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips [3] - The chip ETF (159995) tracks the National Chip Index, which includes 30 constituent stocks representing leading companies in the A-share chip industry across materials, equipment, design, manufacturing, packaging, and testing, including SMIC, Cambricon, Changdian Technology, and Northern Huachuang [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the market by more than 5% over the next six months [9]. Core Insights - SK Hynix reported record performance in FY25Q4, with revenue reaching 32.8 trillion KRW, a year-on-year increase of 66% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 34%. Net profit for the quarter was 15.25 trillion KRW, up 90% year-on-year and 21% quarter-on-quarter [4][7]. - The storage cycle is on the rise, driven by sustained high demand from AI, leading to rapid growth in the company's operating performance. For FY2025, the company achieved revenue of 97.1 trillion KRW and operating profit of 47.2 trillion KRW, marking its best performance record [7]. - The company is expanding its production capacity, with ongoing projects in Cheongju, South Korea, and Indiana, USA, to create a global integrated manufacturing system that can quickly adapt to changes in downstream customer demand [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In FY25Q4, SK Hynix's revenue was 32.8 trillion KRW, with a gross margin of 69%, operating margin of 58%, and net margin of 46% [7]. - The DRAM segment saw a low single-digit growth in bit shipments, with an average selling price (ASP) increasing by over 20%. The sales of HBM doubled year-on-year, significantly contributing to revenue growth [7]. - NAND bit shipments grew approximately 10% quarter-on-quarter, with ASP increasing nearly 30%. The company achieved a historical high in annual sales due to strong demand for eSSD [7]. Market Outlook - The ongoing AI infrastructure development is expected to boost enterprise storage demand, leading to a favorable market environment for the storage industry. The current storage cycle's strength and sustainability are anticipated to exceed the previous cycle [8]. - Companies in the related supply chain are expected to see significant improvements in profitability, with a focus on firms such as Northern Huachuang, Zhongwei Company, and others [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the chip ETF Guangfa (159801), which opened down by 1.50% at 0.982 yuan on February 2 [1] - Major holdings in the chip ETF experienced declines, with notable drops including ZTE International down 1.28%, Haiguang Information down 1.68%, and GigaDevice down 4.47% [1] - The performance benchmark for the chip ETF is the yield of the National Securities Semiconductor Chip Index, managed by Guangfa Fund Management Co., with a return of 99.10% since its inception on January 20, 2020, and a return of 14.65% over the past month [1]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The upcoming week (February 2-6) will see two new stocks available for subscription, with a notable performance of new stocks from the previous week, where one stock surged by 303% on its debut [2]. Group 1: New Stock Subscriptions - Two new stocks will be available for subscription this week: one from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board (易思维) and one from the Beijing Stock Exchange (爱得科技) [2]. - Last week, four new stocks were introduced to the A-share market, all showing positive performance, with 恒运昌 leading with a 302.8% increase on its first day [2]. Group 2: Company Performance and Details - 恒运昌 specializes in semiconductor equipment core components, focusing on the research, production, and sales of plasma RF power systems and related components, achieving significant sales milestones in the domestic semiconductor sector [2]. - 春光集团, which will be reviewed for IPO this week, is engaged in the research, production, and sales of soft magnetic ferrite powder and has received multiple accolades for its industry contributions [3][5]. - The financial performance of 春光集团 shows projected revenues of 10.15 billion yuan in 2022, decreasing to 9.3 billion yuan in 2024, with net profits expected to rise from 77.14 million yuan in 2022 to 98.89 million yuan in 2025 [3][4]. Group 3: IPO Guidance and Trends - The number of IPO guidance filings has increased by 11 companies, reflecting a 35.29% decrease compared to the previous period [6].