Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Leading the Market - A" and the rating is maintained [5] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the supply and demand for live pigs are both increasing ahead of the festival, suggesting that pig prices may experience narrow fluctuations in the short term [23][24] - In the poultry sector, the pre-festival stocking has begun, leading to a rise in white feather broiler prices across the board [26] - The aquaculture sector shows stable prices, with attention drawn to investment opportunities within the sector [41] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The agricultural sector increased by 1.82% during the latest trading week, ranking fifth among the primary industries [13] - The planting sector saw significant gains, with notable increases in stocks such as Nongfa Seed Industry (+30.24%) and Shennong Technology (+26.06%) [15] 2. Industry Data Tracking 2.1. Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs is 12.84 CNY/kg, down 1.68% week-on-week, but up 0.59% over two weeks [22] - The average price of piglets is 471 CNY/head, up 3.29% week-on-week [22] 2.2. Poultry Farming - The average price of white feather broilers is 7.74 CNY/kg, up 3.20% week-on-week [26] - The price of broiler chicks is 2.31 CNY/chick, up 5.00% week-on-week [26] 2.3. Planting Sector - The average price of corn is 2377.26 CNY/ton, up 0.33% week-on-week [36] - The average price of domestic wheat is 2529.67 CNY/ton, up 0.18% week-on-week [36] 2.4. Aquaculture Sector - The average price of carp is 20.00 CNY/kg, with a year-on-year increase of 11.11% [41] - The average price of shrimp is 320.00 CNY/kg, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.11% [41] 3. Investment Recommendations - For pig farming, companies to watch include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Shennong Group [3] - In the white feather chicken sector, recommended companies include Shengnong Development, Yisheng Biological, and Minhe Livestock [3] - In the feed sector, focus on Haida Group due to its increasing overseas feed volume [3]

Group 1 - The three major indices opened lower on February 4, indicating a bearish market sentiment [1] - The Tianhong Agricultural ETF (512620) has seen a net inflow of over 100 million yuan in the past four trading days, with a year-to-date share growth of over 34%, making it the top performer among similar funds [1] - The ETF closely tracks the CSI Agricultural Index, covering sectors such as breeding and agricultural chemicals, and includes leading companies like Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Haida Group [1] Group 2 - According to Dongfang Securities, 2026 is projected to be a turning point for the agricultural sector, with both breeding and planting expected to drive upward trends in the industry [2] - The swine breeding sector is highlighted as a key area, with strong companies continuing to show profitability and increased dividend rates, which are essential for long-term performance and valuation growth [2] - Recent policies and market dynamics are facilitating the reduction of production capacity in the swine breeding industry, which is expected to enhance long-term performance in the sector [2]

Core Insights - The Central Government's document emphasizes the importance of agricultural modernization for China's overall modernization, highlighting the need to strengthen pig production capacity and promote dairy consumption [1] - The agricultural sector is expected to focus on technological empowerment and enhancing the resilience of the industry chain to support high-quality agricultural development [1] Group 1: Agricultural Policy and Market Trends - The Central Government's document outlines key strategies for agricultural modernization, including stabilizing grain production at around 1.4 trillion jin and diversifying oilseed supply [1] - The average price of live pigs in China has dropped to 12.31 yuan per kilogram, with prices in Guangdong nearing 12 yuan, indicating a recovery in breeding sentiment due to positive farming profits [2] - The Ministry of Agriculture has shifted its focus from "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices" to "protecting farmers' rights and stimulating enterprise innovation," suggesting a new growth logic centered on technology and innovative models [2] Group 2: Agricultural Index and Investment Opportunities - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Agricultural Index account for 51.02% of the index, including companies like Salt Lake Co., Cangge Mining, and Yili Group [2] - The Agricultural ETF (516550) closely tracks the CSI Agricultural Index, providing a convenient tool for investors to gain exposure to the agricultural sector, which includes beverages, agricultural products, and animal health [2] - Investors without stock accounts can also access agricultural investment opportunities through the Agricultural ETF linked fund (019279) [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector has shown signs of recovery, with the agricultural index rising by 2.23%, ranking 11th among 31 primary industries [12][15]. - The pig price has experienced fluctuations, initially strong but later declining, with an average price of 12.83 CNY/kg for the week, down 1.06% from the previous week [6][17]. - The white feather chicken market has seen a rebound in chick prices, with an average price of 2.7 CNY/chick, and a rise in broiler chicken prices to 3.85 CNY/kg, up 4.05% from the previous week [30]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural sector has rebounded, with the agricultural index increasing by 2.23% [12]. - The pig farming sector continues to face challenges, with a decline in prices despite some recovery in demand [15]. 2. Livestock Industry Chain Tracking 2.1 Pigs - The average pig price fluctuated between 12.9 and 13.0 CNY/kg, ending the week at 12.51 CNY/kg [6][17]. - The average weight of pigs at market was 127.86 kg, down 1.03 kg from the previous week [19]. - The breeding capacity is slowly decreasing, with a December count of 39.61 million breeding sows, down 1.83% from Q3 [20]. 2.2 White Feather Chicken - Chick prices have rebounded to 2.7 CNY/chick, while broiler prices have increased to 3.85 CNY/kg [30]. - The supply of breeding chickens remains sufficient, with 40% of the annual breeding stock imported [30]. 3. Planting Industry Chain Tracking - The national average price for white sugar is 5295 CNY/ton, a slight increase of 10 CNY/ton [34]. - The price of corn has slightly increased to 2314 CNY/ton, up 4 CNY/ton from the previous week [34].

分析师 1: 各位投资者朋友晚上好，欢迎参加财通农业组织的生猪专家电话会。我是财通证券农业分 析师江璐。那我们可以看到 2025 年，伴随这个猪价一路下跌，整个生猪养殖行业从盈利 转为亏损。能繁母猪产能也进入了一个区划的阶段。那当前时点，其实关于，对于这个 2026 年的一个猪价走势，包括说能繁母猪产能的一个后续的变动。其实还存在诸多的疑 问。那今天晚上我们有幸邀请到了农业农村部生猪预警专家，中国畜牧业协会的石守定老 师，来跟我们做一个分享。 那要不石老师，要不您先基于您监测的这个数据，或者您了解到的一个行业的一个情况， 从大的方向上，方向上来分享一下您对于这个 2026 年一个猪周期的一个走势的判断。包 括说这个猪价的一个大概的节奏，或者说这个高点的，大概这个能看到多少？要不您先分 享一下您的一个观点。 农业农村部生猪预警专家石守定: 这咱是内部的讨论的话，我们就随意的说一说说点东西。现在这个数据其实也算是比较明 了，只不过就是有一些东西出现了一些不太一致的地方。关于产能问题，现在大家其实有 分歧，但是趋势的还是比较明确的。就是整体认为，就是说从高点下来的幅度不是特别的 大。但是这个产能怎么来判断？它是对应 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Agriculture Sector**: The focus is on enhancing the comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity, consolidating the relief achievements in beef and dairy industries, and promoting supply-demand balance and healthy development [1][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Livestock Industry**: - Emphasis on strengthening pig production capacity regulation and consolidating the relief of beef and dairy industries to ensure a balanced supply and demand [1][5]. - Introduction of multiple measures to promote dairy product consumption [2][6]. - **Crop Production**: - Stability in grain and oil production is prioritized, with efforts to enhance soybean production capacity and expand the production space for oilseed crops such as rapeseed, peanuts, and tea oil [3][7]. - Promotion of stable development in cotton, sugar, and natural rubber industries [4][8]. - **Seed Industry**: - Implementation of seed industry revitalization actions, accelerating the breeding and promotion of breakthrough varieties, and advancing the industrialization of biotechnology [9]. - **Agricultural Technology**: - Development of new agricultural productivity tailored to local conditions, integrating artificial intelligence with agriculture, and expanding application scenarios for drones, IoT, and robotics [10]. - **Agricultural Trade**: - Coordination between agricultural trade and production is encouraged, with a push for diversification in agricultural imports [11][12]. - Cultivation of internationally competitive agricultural enterprises and support for expanding exports of advantageous specialty agricultural products [13][14]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Focus**: Attention is drawn to the effectiveness of livestock production capacity regulation, the cyclical reversal of beef and dairy industries, and the orderly advancement of seed industry revitalization [15]. - **Key Investment Targets**: Notable companies include YouRan Agriculture, Modern Animal Husbandry, Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Dekang Agriculture, Longping High-Tech, and Denghai Seeds [16]. - **Smart Agriculture**: The company TopCloud Agriculture is highlighted as a noteworthy entity in the smart agriculture sector [17].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview: Agriculture Grain Security - Grain production is stable at approximately 1.4 trillion jin, with a new initiative to enhance grain capacity by an additional 100 billion jin, focusing on increasing the yield of grain and oil crops on a large scale [1][5] - The document emphasizes the importance of maintaining reasonable prices for key agricultural products, including setting minimum purchase prices for rice and wheat, and improving the target price policy for cotton [4][8] Oilseed Production - Efforts are being made to consolidate and enhance soybean production while expanding the production capacity of rapeseed, peanuts, and oil tea to diversify oil supply [2][6] Other Crop Industries - The document highlights the need to promote stable development in cotton, sugar, and natural rubber industries [3][7] Livestock and Dairy - There is a focus on strengthening comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity, consolidating the recovery of beef and dairy industries, and promoting a balanced and healthy development of supply and demand, with multiple measures to boost dairy consumption [9][13] - Support for the development of silage corn and alfalfa production is mentioned, aiming to transform and upgrade grassland livestock farming [10] Aquaculture and Forestry - The promotion of deep-sea aquaculture and modern ocean fishing is emphasized, along with the active development of forest foods and bio-agriculture [11] Export and Anti-smuggling Measures - Support for expanding the export of advantageous and characteristic agricultural products, along with strict legal measures against agricultural product smuggling [12] Agricultural Technology - The document calls for the implementation of seed industry revitalization actions, accelerating the breeding and promotion of breakthrough varieties, and advancing the industrialization of biological breeding [13] - There is a push for the development of high-end intelligent agricultural machinery suitable for hilly areas, integrating artificial intelligence with agriculture, and expanding applications of drones, IoT, and robotics [13][14] Investment Recommendations - Key investment opportunities are suggested in the livestock and pig farming sectors, with specific companies recommended for focus, including: - Livestock: Youran Dairy, Modern Farming, China Shengmu, etc. - Pig farming: Muyuan Foods, Juxing Agriculture, Dekang Agriculture, Wen's Food, Lihua Agriculture, Tiankang Biological, etc. [13] Agricultural Technology Companies - A recommendation to pay attention to agricultural technology firms, particularly those involved in genetically modified seeds and low-altitude, AI-driven agricultural enterprises [14]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the acceleration of building an agricultural powerhouse as highlighted in the 2026 Central Document No. 1, which focuses on enhancing agricultural production capacity and quality, implementing precise assistance, and promoting stable income growth for farmers [7] - It stresses the need for comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity and the establishment of a diversified food supply system, indicating a shift from "doing well" to "strengthening" the regulation of pig production capacity compared to the 2025 document [7] - The report outlines the goal of stabilizing grain and oil production, with a target grain output of approximately 1.4 trillion jin, and emphasizes the importance of seed industry revitalization actions [7] - It highlights the integration of artificial intelligence with agricultural development, promoting the use of drones and other technologies to enhance agricultural productivity [7] - Investment suggestions include focusing on leading seed companies that benefit from breeding innovation and the biological breeding industry, such as Longping High-Tech, Denghai Seeds, and Kangnong Seeds [7] Summary by Sections Policy Insights - The 2026 Central Document No. 1 outlines three main areas: improving agricultural production capacity, implementing precise assistance, and promoting stable income growth for farmers [7] - It calls for a focus on stabilizing grain production and enhancing the diversity of oilseed supply, including increasing soybean production and expanding the cultivation of other oil crops [7] Technological Integration - The report discusses the potential of integrating AI with agriculture, including applications in autonomous farming machinery and AI pest identification, which are expected to drive improvements in agricultural efficiency [7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends attention to companies with breeding research advantages, particularly in the context of the biological breeding industry, suggesting companies like Longping High-Tech, Denghai Seeds, and Kangnong Seeds as potential investment opportunities [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The pig price is weakening, and supply pressure remains after the festival, with the current industry breeding profit turning positive and the sentiment for replenishment continuing to recover [2][12] - The industry policy is undergoing a profound transformation, focusing on protecting farmers' rights and activating enterprise innovation, which may lead to a better performance of growth stocks in the future [3][12] - The high-quality development of the industry is imperative, with cost-leading and farmer-linked enterprises likely to enjoy excess profits and valuation premiums [3][13] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - The swine breeding sector has seen a slight increase of 0.2%, gradually digesting concerns about slow capacity reduction [2][12] - The average weight of pigs for slaughter has decreased from high levels, with prices adjusting weakly to 12.31 CNY/kg [2][12] - The price of 7 kg piglets has risen to 367 CNY, indicating a weak expectation for capacity reduction [2][12] - The policy shift towards protecting farmers' rights and promoting innovation is expected to positively influence pig prices and profitability in 2026 [3][12] 2. Poultry Industry - The poultry sector is experiencing a contradiction of "high capacity, weak consumption," with the price of broiler chickens at 3.7 CNY/kg, down 3.4% week-on-week [4][13] - The impact of avian influenza in France may lead to a reduction in imported breeding chickens, potentially increasing prices for parent stock [4][13] - Integrated enterprises and contract farming are expected to expand market share in 2026 [4][14] 3. Feed Industry - The prices of various aquatic products have rebounded, with significant year-on-year increases for some species [5][15] - Hai Da Group is recommended due to its clear long-term growth path and plans to increase its dividend payout ratio [6][15][16] - The company aims for a global sales target of 100 million tons by 2050, with ongoing overseas market expansion [6][16] 4. Pet Industry - The pet industry is facing pressure with concerns over Q4 2025 performance, but there are signs of recovery in domestic sales [7][17] - Companies like Zhongchong and Peidi are recommended for their strong domestic sales growth potential [7][17] 5. Agricultural Products - Domestic soybean meal prices have increased slightly, supported by weather disturbances and procurement demand [8][18] - Corn prices have shown fluctuations, with a slight decrease due to reduced channel stocking [8][18] - The price of eggs has decreased, indicating a potential peak in trade inventory [8][18]

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