证券研究报告 | 2026年01月27日 $\Delta$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$H${}_{\rm H}$ 公募 FOF 基金 2025 年四季度概览 截至 2025Q4，全市场已成立FOF产品数量 549 只，合计规模为 2441.88 亿元，相比 2025Q3 增加 26.20%。根据穿透后权益资产占比将FOF划 分为偏债型FOF、平衡型FOF和偏股型FOF，2025Q4 规模分别为 1611.13 亿元、454. ...

Core Viewpoint - The aviation and airport sector experienced a decline of 0.82% on January 27, with Spring Airlines leading the drop, while the overall Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.18% [1]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4139.9, up 0.18% - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14329.91, up 0.09% [1]. Individual Stock Performance - Xiamen Airport (600897) closed at 17.39, up 0.58% with a trading volume of 50,100 shares and a turnover of 86.41 million yuan - Shenzhen Airport (000089) closed at 7.16, up 0.14% with a trading volume of 167,000 shares and a turnover of 119 million yuan - Shanghai Airport (600009) closed at 30.94, down 0.35% with a trading volume of 183,700 shares and a turnover of 569 million yuan - Spring Airlines (601021) closed at 57.01, down 1.93% with a trading volume of 49,400 shares and a turnover of 28.5 million yuan [1][3]. Capital Flow Analysis - The aviation and airport sector saw a net outflow of 53.6 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 46.2 million yuan - Speculative funds had a net inflow of 99.8 million yuan [3][4]. Individual Stock Capital Flow - China National Airlines (601111) had a net outflow of 41.69 million yuan from institutional investors, with a retail net outflow of 32.64 million yuan - Shenzhen Airport (000089) saw a net inflow of 25.27 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net outflow of 19.11 million yuan - Shanghai Airport (600009) had a net inflow of 4.72 million yuan from speculative funds, but a net outflow of 54.46 million yuan from retail investors [4]. ETF Performance - Aerospace ETF (159227) tracked the national aerospace industry index, with a recent five-day change of 6.64% and a net subscription of 190 million yuan - General Aviation ETF (159230) tracked the national general aviation industry index, with a recent five-day change of 5.15% and a net redemption of 14.27 million yuan - Tourism ETF (562510) tracked the China Securities tourism theme index, with a recent five-day change of -1.79% and a net subscription of 10.83 million yuan [6][7].

Group 1 - The three major Chinese airlines, Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines, announced an extension of the free ticket refund and change policy for flights to and from Japan, applicable for tickets purchased before January 26 for travel dates from March 29 to October 24 [1] - The airlines have previously issued special handling plans for tickets related to Japan routes, with the initial free refund and change policy set to expire on March 28 [1] Group 2 - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a warning advising citizens to avoid traveling to Japan during the upcoming Spring Festival due to rising safety concerns, including an increase in criminal cases against Chinese nationals and recent earthquakes [2] - As of January 26, 2026, there have been 49 flight routes canceled entirely, marking an increase from January, with a cancellation rate of 47.2% for flights from mainland China to Japan in January 2026, up by 7.8 percentage points from December 2025 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The commercial operation of China's C919 aircraft is steadily advancing, with production and delivery entering an accelerated phase, aiming for at least 28 deliveries in 2026, with a production rate of one aircraft every 10 to 15 days [1][3][4]. Production and Delivery - China Commercial Aircraft Corporation (COMAC) is improving the production and delivery pace of the C919 as supply chain issues are gradually resolved, with 15 aircraft delivered in 2025, an increase from 12 in 2024, although still below the initial target of 75 [1][4]. - In the last two months of 2025, 8 out of the 15 delivered C919s were completed, indicating a positive trend in production capacity [4][6]. - The company expects the supply chain situation to continue improving in 2026, with two C919s already entering the delivery process at the start of the new year [3][4]. Engine Supply and Political Factors - The reliance on Western-made LEAP-1C engines poses a challenge for COMAC, as political factors can disrupt engine procurement, making diversification of engine supply sources crucial for long-term supply chain security [4][6][5]. - Despite the political challenges, COMAC is working closely with Western partners to ensure a stable supply of engines, which is seen as the most feasible way to increase production in the short term [6][5]. Market Position and Future Prospects - The C919 has successfully transported over 4 million passengers since its domestic operation began in May 2023, and orders from major airlines are increasing, with plans for each of the three major Chinese airlines to purchase at least 100 C919s by 2031 [9][10]. - The aircraft's international certification process is ongoing, which is essential for competing with Boeing and Airbus in the global market [9][10]. - The entry of COMAC into the market is welcomed by competitors, who acknowledge that competition drives innovation and improvement across the industry [9].

Industry Highlights - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security will hold a regular press conference today to introduce the progress of human resources and social security work for 2025 [1] - Intel's first consumer laptops equipped with the third-generation Core Ultra processors will be launched globally today [1] - Microsoft has launched the next-generation AI chip Maia 200, aimed at reducing dependence on Nvidia [1] - The European Union has officially approved a complete ban on the import of Russian natural gas starting next year [1] - Alibaba has officially released the Qwen3-Max-Thinking flagship reasoning model, which is performance-comparable to GPT-5.2 [1] - Nvidia has made an additional investment of $2 billion in CoreWeave to accelerate data center construction [1] - Zijin Mining plans to acquire 100% of Allied Gold Corporation for approximately 28 billion yuan [1] - India is experiencing an outbreak of the Nipah virus, which has a high fatality rate, with vaccines entering clinical trials [1] - Several airlines, including Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines, have announced an extension of the free refund and change policy for flights to Japan until October 24 [1] Economic Data - In December, the profit of large-scale industrial enterprises decreased by 13.1% year-on-year [1] - For the entire year, the profit of large-scale industrial enterprises was flat at 0.1% year-on-year [1] - The Dallas Fed Business Activity Index for January was reported at -1.2 [1] - Durable goods orders in the U.S. for November increased by 5.3% month-on-month [1] A-Share Dynamics - Six listed companies are facing stock unlocks, with Haibo Shichuang unlocking 94.64 million shares (52.55% of total shares) and Yalian Machinery unlocking 27.2 million shares (31.18% of total shares) [1] - Several listed companies have announced dividend distributions, with some set for stock registration today and ex-dividend on January 28; Xiyes shares a dividend plan of 1.10 yuan per 10 shares (tax included) [1] - Zhejiang Construction Investment has announced a plan to issue approximately 243 million new shares, with total fundraising not fully disclosed; the listing date for the new shares is set for January 27, 2026 [1] - Ten listed companies have released information regarding suspension and resumption of trading, including ST Changyao, Longyun Co., Debang Co., and Aifute [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the transportation sector, including SF Holding, YTO Express, and Spring Airlines, among others [2][3]. Core Insights - The instant retail industry is experiencing rapid expansion, with China's market expected to reach CNY 1.2 trillion by 2026 and over CNY 2 trillion by 2030, driven by a CAGR of 43.6% from 2018 to 2026 [8][10]. - Alibaba's commitment to the instant retail sector is strong, with significant investments leading to a peak order volume of 120 million for Taobao Flash Sales in December 2025, indicating a robust growth trajectory [12][15]. - SF Express is positioned as a leading independent third-party instant delivery service, benefiting from the industry's rapid growth and increasing demand for delivery services [30][18]. Summary by Sections Instant Delivery Industry - The instant retail market in China is projected to grow significantly, with a CAGR of 43.6% from 2018 to 2026, reaching CNY 1.2 trillion by 2026 and over CNY 2 trillion by 2030 [10][12]. - Alibaba's strategic investments in instant retail are evident, with a focus on expanding beyond food delivery to a broader range of products, resulting in substantial order growth [13][15]. - SF Express is highlighted as a key player in the instant delivery market, with a 49% revenue growth in H1 2025 and a significant increase in order volume [18][21]. Aviation Sector - The aviation industry is recovering from a seasonal downturn, with domestic flight volumes increasing by 1.4% week-on-week, and ticket prices showing a year-on-year increase of 8.4% [32][43]. - The cargo segment is also seeing a recovery, with stable freight rates and increased demand expected as the Chinese New Year approaches [50][57]. - Recommendations include focusing on major airlines such as China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines, which are expected to benefit from improved demand and pricing [57][61]. Express Delivery Sector - The express delivery industry has shown resilience, with a 6.5% year-on-year increase in total revenue for 2025, despite challenges in pricing [61][75]. - The report notes a stabilization in single-package pricing, with significant growth in market share for companies like SF Express and YTO Express [75][81]. - The ongoing "anti-involution" trend is expected to lead to improved profitability for express delivery companies as competition becomes more structured [81][82].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the transportation sector, including SF Holding, YTO Express, and Eastern Airlines Logistics, among others [2][3]. Core Insights - The instant retail industry is experiencing rapid expansion, with China's market expected to reach 1.2 trillion yuan by 2026 and over 2 trillion yuan by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of 43.6% from 2018 to 2026 [8][10]. - Alibaba's commitment to the instant retail sector is strong, with significant investments aimed at expanding beyond food delivery into a full range of instant retail services, evidenced by a peak of 120 million daily orders on Taobao Flash Purchase [12][15]. - SF Express is highlighted as a leading independent third-party instant delivery service, benefiting from the industry's growth and increasing demand for delivery services [30][18]. - The airline industry is recovering from a seasonal downturn, with domestic flight numbers increasing by 1.4% week-on-week, and ticket prices showing a year-on-year increase of 8.4% [32][43]. - The air cargo sector is also seeing a recovery, with stable freight rates and increased demand expected as the Chinese New Year approaches [50][57]. - The express delivery industry is stabilizing, with a slight increase in average revenue per package, and major players like SF Express and YTO Express gaining market share [61][75]. Summary by Sections Instant Delivery Industry - The instant retail market in China is projected to grow significantly, with a CAGR of 43.6% from 2018 to 2026, reaching 1.2 trillion yuan by 2026 and over 2 trillion yuan by 2030 [10][18]. - Alibaba's strategic investments in instant retail are reshaping the market, with a focus on expanding beyond traditional food delivery [12][15]. - SF Express is positioned as a key player in the instant delivery sector, benefiting from rapid growth and increased order volumes [30][18]. Airline Industry - The airline sector is showing signs of recovery, with domestic flight operations increasing and ticket prices rising [32][43]. - The air cargo market is stabilizing, with expectations of increased demand leading up to the Chinese New Year [50][57]. Express Delivery Industry - The express delivery market is stabilizing, with slight improvements in revenue per package and market share gains for major companies [61][75]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing trend of "anti-involution" in the industry, which is expected to lead to improved profitability for express delivery companies [81].

据新华社消息，国航、南航、东航1月26日发布公告称，根据外交部发布的出行提醒，为协助受影响旅客更好安排出行，针对1月26日12时前已购买、旅行 日期为3月29日至10月24日的上述航空公司日本航线进出港航班客票，可办理免费退改手续。 国航公告—— 南航公告—— 东航公告—— 来源：@新华社 据悉，上述航空公司已多次发布涉日本航线客票特殊处置方案，此前的免费退改政策执行至3月28日。 ...

作者 | 柴旭晨 编辑 | 张晓玲 在国际商贸往来日益多元化、全球旅游业强劲复苏的宏观背景下，中国民用航空业正迎来新一轮波澜壮 阔的"出海"浪潮。 随着中国免签"朋友圈"的不断扩容，国内航司的航线网络已不仅限于传统的枢纽城市，而是更深入地触 达全球各地的毛细血管。然而，对于中国航空公司而言，国际化战略的落地绝非仅仅是开通航线那么简 单，它更是一场关于商业基础设施的深度重构。 面对陌生的海外商业环境，如何在全球百余个国家和地区构建高效、安全且合规的资金大动脉，已成为 航空公司决胜海外市场的关键所在。 在此背景下，近期，包括中国国际航空、中国东方航空、中国南方航空、海南航空、香港航空在内的十 余家大中型航司，近期不约而同地选择与蚂蚁国际旗下商户支付与数字化服务平台Antom达成深度合 作。 这场跨界联手的背后，折射出中国企业在面对国际商贸新趋势时，对于提升跨境支付效率、精细化资金 管理、加强风险防控以及提高整体运营效能的迫切需求。 原本需要庞大IT团队维护的数百个API接口，如今被简化为一个统一的Antom接口，一举降低了航空公 司在系统集成层面的复杂度与后期维护成本，也为全球旅客带来了无缝的购票体验，从而有效提 ...

（王潇雨 摄影） 文/王潇雨 1月26日，包括国有"三大航"在内的多家中国航空公司发布最新一版"涉及日本航线客票特殊处置方案的 通知"，将中日航线客票免费退改的期限进一步延长至今年10月24日。 责任编辑：黄兴利 主编：寒丰 这一举措最早源自于去年11月中国外交部领事司发布提醒中国公民避免前往日本的通知之后，多家中国 航司迅速出台了"涉及日本航线进出港航班客票特殊处置方案"。该特殊处理政策首次实施的时间区间是 2025年11月15日至2025年12月31日。在2025年12月初，这一政策进一步延长至2026年3月28日。 按照外交部方面当时的说法，"日本社会治安不靖，针对中国公民违法犯罪案件多发，发生多起在日中 国公民遇袭事件，部分案件迄未侦破，中国公民在日本安全环境持续恶化。近日，日本领导人公然发表 涉台露骨挑衅言论，严重恶化中日人员交流氛围，给在日中国公民人身和生命安全带来重大风险。" 这一轮地缘政治冲突迅速对曾经是中国游客最青睐的出境游市场日本带来了直接冲击。根据日本国家旅 游局（JNTO）最新发布的数据显示，2025年12月，中国大陆赴日游客数量约为33万人次，相较于2024 年同期超过60万人次下滑 ...