Core Points - The explosion incident at Baosteel's plate factory in Inner Mongolia has resulted in 9 confirmed deaths, with 1 additional person reported missing and under further verification [1] Group 1 - The explosion occurred at Baosteel's plate factory, indicating potential safety and operational risks within the manufacturing sector [1] - Emergency rescue operations are ongoing at the site, highlighting the immediate response efforts by local authorities [1]

来源｜新华社 编辑 ｜瑜见 记者20日从内蒙古包钢板材厂爆炸事故现场应急救援指挥部了解到，截至记者发稿前，事故已造成9人 死亡，另外1名失联人员正在进一步确认中。 ...

记者从内蒙古包钢板材厂爆炸事故现场应急救援指挥部了解到，截至1月20日，事故已造成9人遇难，另 有1名失联人员的相关情况正在进一步确认核实中。 ...

新华社呼和浩特1月20日电（记者王靖、贺书琛） 记者20日从内蒙古包钢板材厂爆炸事故现场应急救援 指挥部了解到，截至记者发稿前，事故已造成9人死亡，另外1名失联人员正在进一步确认中。 （文章来源：新华社） ...

Macroeconomic Overview - The Chinese economy is projected to achieve a GDP growth of 5.0% in 2025, with industrial added value increasing by 5.9% year-on-year, while real estate development investment is expected to decline by 17.2% [1][2] - The economic performance shows a clear divergence, with supply and external demand improving while internal demand remains weak, particularly in investment growth [1][2] - The government is expected to focus on expanding domestic demand to stabilize growth, with fiscal and monetary policies already showing signs of support [1][2] Currency Exchange - The onshore RMB against the USD closed at 6.9636, appreciating by 53 basis points, while the central parity rate was adjusted to 7.0051, up by 27 basis points [1][2] - The RMB's appreciation is supported by resilient exports and increased willingness of enterprises to settle in RMB, despite potential pressures from international trade tensions [4] Investment Strategies - Export enterprises are advised to lock in forward exchange rates around 7.01 to mitigate risks from potential currency depreciation, while importers should consider rolling purchases near the 6.93 mark [5] - The bond market is expected to face limited upward potential due to a lack of driving factors, with short-term strategies suggesting a cautious approach [6] Commodity Market Insights - The lithium carbonate futures market shows a slight increase, with prices at 147,260 RMB/ton, while the overall lithium battery supply chain is experiencing weak performance [11][12] - Industrial silicon prices are expected to rise due to anticipated production cuts, with the main contract trading at 8,845 RMB/ton [12][13] - The copper market is experiencing fluctuations, with prices rebounding to 5.9055 USD/pound, driven by external factors and market sentiment [15][17] Agricultural Products - The soybean market is facing a potential supply gap in Q1 2025, with imports expected to be lower than previous years, while domestic soybean meal inventories are decreasing [22][23] - The canola market is showing signs of recovery due to improved trade relations with Canada, which may lead to lower tariffs and increased imports [22][25] Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices are rising, driven by geopolitical tensions and market reactions to U.S. tariff policies, with gold reaching 4,676.7 USD/ounce and silver at 94.28 USD/ounce [29][30] - The outlook for precious metals remains bullish, with expectations of continued demand from central banks and investors amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [27][30]

Group 1: Report Core View - The prices of both rebar and hot-rolled coil futures and spot have declined, affected by sudden events and raw materials [2][3] - The trend strength of both rebar and hot-rolled coil is neutral [4][5] Group 2: Futures and Spot Data Futures - RB2605 closed at 3,140 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan (-1.04%), with a trading volume of 1,056,242 lots and a position of 1,727,955 lots, a decrease of 27,384 lots [2] - HC2605 closed at 3,299 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan (-0.75%), with a trading volume of 486,769 lots and a position of 1,502,009 lots, a decrease of 12,645 lots [2] Spot - Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [2] - Hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [2] - Tangshan billet price decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 2,960 yuan/ton [2] Basis and Spread - The basis of RB2605 increased by 7 yuan to 137 yuan [2] - The basis of HC2605 increased by 12 yuan to -15 yuan [2] - RB2601 - RB2605 spread decreased by 4 yuan to 75 yuan [2] - HC2601 - HC2605 spread decreased by 9 yuan to -45 yuan [2] - HC2601 - RB2601 spread increased by 20 yuan to 129 yuan [2] - HC2605 - RB2605 spread increased by 7 yuan to 159 yuan [2] - Spot coil - rebar spread decreased by 10 yuan to -109 yuan [2] Group 3: Macro and Industry News - On January 19th, an explosion occurred in a 650m³ saturated water and steam spherical tank in the steel - making department of Baotou Plate Factory, which will affect the production of the plate factory and surrounding production lines [2] - January 15th steel union weekly data: rebar production decreased by 0.74 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 2.85 tons, and the total production of five major varieties increased by 0.62 tons [3] - Total inventory: rebar decreased by 0.04 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 5.8 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 6.91 tons [4] - Apparent demand: rebar increased by 14.44 tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 5.55 tons, and the total increased by 27.5 tons [4] - In December 2025, China imported 51.7 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 2.1 million tons (4.2%); the average price was 1,810.3 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 179.0 US dollars/ton (11.0%). From January to December, the cumulative imported steel was 605.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 75.6 million tons (11.1%) [4] - In late December 2025, key steel enterprises produced 1,807 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 164.3 million tons, a daily output decrease of 11.0% month - on - month; 1,837 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 167.0 million tons, a daily output decrease of 0.6% month - on - month; 2,081 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 189.2 million tons, a daily output increase of 4.9% month - on - month [4] - In late December 2025, the social inventory of five major varieties of steel in 21 cities was 721 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27 million tons (3.6%); a decrease of 112 million tons (13.4%) compared with late November; an increase of 62 million tons (9.4%) compared with the same period last year [4] - In late December 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 1,414 million tons, a decrease of 187 million tons (11.7%) compared with the previous ten - day period; an increase of 177 million tons (14.3%) compared with the beginning of the year; a decrease of 14 million tons (1.0%) compared with the same ten - day period of the previous month; an increase of 177 million tons (14.3%) compared with the same period last year; an increase of 178 million tons (14.4%) compared with the same period the year before last [4] - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products [4] - In October 2025, China imported 50.3 million tons of steel, a month - on - month decrease of 4.5 million tons (8.2%); the average price was 1,593.0 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 31.1 US dollars/ton (1.9%). From January to October, the cumulative imported steel was 504.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68.0 million tons (11.9%) [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market continued to cool, and the prices of finished steel products remained in a weak oscillation within the bottom range. The explosion accident at Baotou Steel's plate factory may lead to a new round of safety inspections in the steel industry, with a possible short - term decline in the operating rate of some steel mills, which supports the prices of hot - rolled coils [2]. - The prices of iron ore may face adjustments at high levels due to market sentiment fluctuations and the impact of the explosion accident. Future focus should be on steel mill restocking and molten iron production rhythms [4]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to be affected by the overall market sentiment, cost factors, and "dual - carbon" policies. Attention should be paid to potential supply - restricting events in manganese ore and the progress of "dual - carbon" policies [8][9]. - The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to show an oscillatory and slightly stronger trend. However, short - term market sentiment fluctuations and high - volatility risks should be noted [15]. - The prices of industrial silicon may oscillate repeatedly. Future focus should be on the implementation of production cuts by large factories and the production adjustment rhythms of downstream enterprises [18]. - The prices of polysilicon are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to spot transactions and potential changes in exchange risk - control measures [21]. - The glass market is expected to continue wide - range oscillations, with the main contract reference range of 1015 - 1170 yuan/ton [24]. - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a weak consolidation trend, with the main contract reference price range of 1150 - 1270 yuan/ton [26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Market Quotes** - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3140 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton (-0.72%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 2132 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 27384 lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai aggregated prices decreased by 20 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3299 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (-0.48%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the main contract positions decreased by 12645 lots. The Lecong and Shanghai aggregated prices both decreased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Views** - The overall sentiment in the commodity market cooled, and steel prices oscillated at the bottom. The explosion at Baotou Steel may lead to supply contractions, supporting hot - rolled coil prices. The supply - demand of hot - rolled coils and rebar is generally neutral, and future focus should be on inventory reduction of hot - rolled coils and "dual - carbon" policies [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes** - The closing price of the iron ore main contract (I2605) was 794.00 yuan/ton, down 2.22% (-18.00). The positions decreased by 32521 lots to 61.63 million lots. The weighted positions were 96.64 million lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 804 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 60.41 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.07% [3]. - **Strategy Views** - Overseas iron ore shipments continued to decline, and the recent arrival volume decreased. The daily molten iron output decreased, and the blast furnace maintenance and restart were both ongoing. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased. The iron ore price is supported but lacks new driving forces. After the explosion accident, the molten iron production may decline slightly, and future focus should be on steel mill restocking and molten iron production rhythms [4]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes** - On January 19, the manganese silicon main contract (SM603) fell 0.34%, closing at 5808 yuan/ton. The Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price was 5680 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton, with a premium of 62 yuan/ton over the futures. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF603) fell 0.39%, closing at 5548 yuan/ton. The Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon spot price was 5800 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a premium of 252 yuan/ton over the futures [7]. - **Strategy Views** - The market sentiment of many commodities has cooled, and the prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon have adjusted. The supply - demand of manganese silicon is loose, and that of ferrosilicon is balanced. Future price trends will be affected by the overall market sentiment, cost factors, and "dual - carbon" policies. Attention should be paid to potential supply - restricting events in manganese ore and the progress of "dual - carbon" policies [8][9]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Quotes** - On January 19, the coking coal main contract (JM2605) rose 0.30%, closing at 1174.5 yuan/ton. The Shanxi low - sulfur main coking coal price was 1582.1 yuan/ton, up 1.7 yuan/ton, with a premium of 218 yuan/ton over the futures. The coke main contract (J2605) rose 0.23%, closing at 1721.0 yuan/ton. The Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke price was 1470 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a discount of 105.5 yuan/ton to the futures [11]. - **Strategy Views** - The prices of coking coal and coke oscillated and declined last week due to the cooling of market sentiment. In the future, the overall commodity market may maintain a bullish sentiment, but short - term fluctuations may occur. The supply - demand of coking coal and coke is relatively balanced, but the steel mills' restocking willingness is not strong. The prices are expected to show an oscillatory and slightly stronger trend, and short - term market sentiment fluctuations and high - volatility risks should be noted [14][15]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Quotes** - Industrial silicon: The closing price of the main contract (SI2605) was 8845 yuan/ton, up 2.79% (+240). The weighted positions decreased by 2267 lots to 369608 lots. The spot prices of East China 553 and 421 remained unchanged, with bases of 355 yuan/ton and 5 yuan/ton respectively [17]. - Polysilicon: The closing price of the main contract (PS2605) was 50505 yuan/ton, up 0.61% (+305). The weighted positions decreased by 1833 lots to 82463 lots. The spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material all rose by 0.15 yuan/kg, with a basis of 4495 yuan/ton [19]. - **Strategy Views** - Industrial silicon: The price may oscillate repeatedly due to short - term news disturbances. The supply has decreased, and the demand has weakened. If the production cut of a large northwest factory is implemented, the supply - demand relationship is expected to improve. Future focus should be on the implementation of production cuts and the production adjustment rhythms of downstream enterprises [18]. - Polysilicon: The market is in a wait - and - see state, and the supply pressure is expected to ease. The futures positions and liquidity have declined, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to spot transactions and potential changes in exchange risk - control measures [20][21]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Quotes** - Glass: The closing price of the main contract was 1070 yuan/ton, down 2.99% (-33). The North China and Central China spot prices remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 250.50 million cases (-4.51%). The top 20 long - position holders increased 18703 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 34198 lots [23]. - Soda ash: The closing price of the main contract was 1192 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Shahe heavy - soda spot price remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises increased by 0.23 million tons (-4.51%), with the heavy - soda inventory increasing by 0.18 million tons and the light - soda inventory increasing by 0.05 million tons. The top 20 long - position holders decreased 14963 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders decreased 30133 lots [25]. - **Strategy Views** - Glass: The market sentiment has weakened, and the supply - demand is in a loose balance. The supply is at a low level, the demand is light, and the inventory is still higher than in previous years. The price is expected to continue wide - range oscillations, with the main contract reference range of 1015 - 1170 yuan/ton [24]. - Soda ash: The market continued to oscillate weakly. The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and the enterprise inventory pressure still exists. The price is expected to maintain a weak consolidation trend, with the main contract reference price range of 1150 - 1270 yuan/ton [26].

Group 1: Rare Earth Metals - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide is 674,400 CNY/ton, an increase of 11.14% month-on-month [3] - The price of dysprosium oxide is 1,490,000 CNY/ton, up 7.97% month-on-month; the price of terbium oxide is 6,420,000 CNY/ton, up 8.08% month-on-month [3] - China's rare earth permanent magnet exports in November increased by 12% month-on-month and 28% year-on-year, reaching a historical high for the same period [3] Group 2: Small Metals Index - The Shenyin Wanguo small metals index is at 35,396.26 points, up 16.48% month-on-month, outperforming the Shenyin Wanguo non-ferrous index by 4.63 percentage points [2] Group 3: Tin - The price of tin ingots is 414,600 CNY/ton, an increase of 27.16% month-on-month; supply from Indonesia and Myanmar remains below expectations [4] - The long-term supply-demand dynamics for tin are expected to improve due to recovery in semiconductor demand driven by AI and automotive intelligence [4] Group 4: Tungsten - The price of tungsten concentrate is 503,700 CNY/ton, up 11.15% month-on-month; ammonium paratungstate is priced at 745,300 CNY/ton, up 11.31% month-on-month [4] - The establishment of a $2.5 billion "strategic resilience reserve" in the U.S. may increase the priority of tungsten in global supply chains [4] Group 5: Antimony - The price of antimony ingots is 162,000 CNY/ton, up 0.09% month-on-month; antimony concentrate price remains stable at 137,900 CNY/ton [5] - November exports of antimony oxide increased by 68% month-on-month but decreased by 61% year-on-year, indicating a potential recovery in demand [5] Group 6: Molybdenum - The price of molybdenum concentrate is 4,010 CNY/ton, up 8.38% month-on-month; molybdenum iron is priced at 254,000 CNY/ton, up 3.67% month-on-month [6] - The increase in defense spending and low inventory levels may further support molybdenum prices [6]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market is characterized by a structural trend. On January 19, the four major index futures contracts for the current month showed mixed performance. On the trading day, the total trading volume of index futures declined, indicating a decrease in investors' trading enthusiasm. The positions of the four major index futures also changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Index Futures Data Tracking - **Closing Price and Fluctuation**: The closing prices of various index futures showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the CSI 300 index closed at 4734.5, up 0.05%; the SSE 50 index closed at 3075.9, down 0.12%; the CSI 500 index closed at 8288, up 0.67%; and the CSI 1000 index closed at 8265.7, up 0.40% [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of different index futures and their contracts also varied. For instance, the basis of IF2602 was -1.66, and that of IH2602 was 0.46 [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of each index futures contract changed. For example, the trading volume of IF2602 decreased by 5290 lots, and the open interest decreased by 1168 lots [1]. 3.2 Market Activity - **Trading Volume**: The total trading volume of index futures decreased. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF decreased by 34310 lots, IH by 18564 lots, IC by 21181 lots, and IM by 35971 lots [2]. - **Open Interest**: The total open interest of index futures also changed. The total open interest of IF decreased by 4289 lots, IH by 1610 lots, IC increased by 6196 lots, and IM increased by 1234 lots [3]. 3.3 Top 20 Member Positions The positions of the top 20 members in different index futures contracts changed. For example, in the IF2601 contract, the long - position decreased by 1007 lots, and the short - position decreased by 724 lots [5]. 3.4 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6]. 3.5 Important Drivers - **A - share Market**: A - shares were in a shrinking and volatile state. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.29% to 4114 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.09%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.7%, and the total trading volume of A - shares was 2.73 trillion yuan, down from 3.06 trillion yuan the previous day [7]. - **Hong Kong Stock Market**: Hong Kong stocks opened lower and closed lower. The Hang Seng Index fell 1.05% to 26563.9 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1.24%, and the total trading volume was 2256.9 billion Hong Kong dollars, down from 2550.79 billion Hong Kong dollars the previous day [7]. - **Macroeconomic Data**: In 2025, China's GDP was 1401879 billion yuan, a 5% increase compared to the previous year. The national population at the end of 2025 was 1404890000, a decrease of 3390000 from the previous year, with a natural population growth rate of - 2.41‰ [7][8].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black building materials sector (steel) is "oscillating" [1] 2) Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the national economy withstood pressure, made progress towards new and high - quality development, and successfully completed the main goals of the "14th Five - Year Plan". The GDP was 140.1879 trillion yuan, a 5.0% increase compared to the previous year [1] - From January to December 2025, China's crude steel production was 960.81 million tons, a 4.4% year - on - year decrease; pig iron production was 836.04 million tons, a 3.0% year - on - year decrease; steel production was 1.44612 billion tons, a 3.1% year - on - year increase [1] - In 2025, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.9% compared to the previous year [1] - In 2025, the national real estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a 17.2% year - on - year decrease. The construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.5989 billion square meters, a 10.0% year - on - year decrease. The new construction area was 587.7 million square meters, a 20.4% decrease. The completed area was 603.48 million square meters, an 18.1% decrease. Among them, the completed residential area was 428.3 million square meters, a 20.2% decrease [1] - The Baotou Steel incident did not cause the market to strengthen. In 2025, crude steel production decreased by 4.4% year - on - year, falling below 1 billion tons, and the supply and demand of steel both decreased. In the short and medium term, steel production and inventory both decreased. Among them, rebar production and inventory decreased slightly, hot - rolled coil production increased, and inventory decreased slightly. The apparent demand increased month - on - month. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not prominent [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Market Condition - On Monday, rebar and hot - rolled coils closed down, and they also closed down at night [1] Trading Strategy - Short - term operation is recommended. The support level for the main rebar contract is 3050, and the pressure level is 3200 [1]