近日，燕京啤酒在互动平台向投资者表示，燕京营养家是燕京啤酒布局大健康产业的重要市场举措，由 北京燕京中发生物技术有限公司专业运营，作为其线下销售渠道，重点推广燕京纳豆、纳福多肽等自主 研发的健康产品。燕京啤酒总部位于北京市顺义区，公司股票于1997年7月在深交所挂牌上市交易。 2025年1至9月，燕京啤酒实现营收65.45亿元，同比增长8.58%（调整后）；实现归母净利润14.66亿 元，同比下降4.28%（调整后）。2025年上半年，燕京啤酒的啤酒产品实现营收78.96亿元，占营收比重 为92.26%。 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月12日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-12-11 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3873.31 | 13147.38 | 4552.18 | 13968.17 | 3831.12 | 1325.83 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | -0.69 | -1.26 | -0.86 | -1.42 | -1.49 | -1.54 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 7643.50 | 10927.62 | 4324.31 | 3540.74 | 5132.25 | 532.40 | 【常规内容】 宏观与策略 策略快评:AI 赋能资产配置（三十一）-对冲基金怎么用 AI 做投资 策略快评:AI 赋能资产配置（三十）-投研效率革命已至，但 AI 边界在 哪？ 行业与公司 化工行业快评:2026 年度制冷剂配额核发公示点评-2026 年制冷剂配额 公示，年底配额调整幅度较小 食品饮料行业 2 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the transformation of Yanjing Beer, a state-owned enterprise, which has revitalized itself through significant personnel changes and reforms, leading to a consistent increase in profits since 2021 and outperforming competitors in stock performance [2][4]. Industry Overview - The beer industry has experienced a period of adjustment from 2013 to 2020, during which Yanjing Beer lagged behind. However, from 2020 to 2024, Yanjing Beer has shown a notable increase in sales growth, surpassing national averages and key competitors [2][3]. Pricing Dynamics - Yanjing Beer has successfully increased its pricing, with the average price per ton rising from 2,570 RMB in 2016 to 3,663 RMB in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.5%, positioning it among the top tier in the industry for price increases [4]. Product Strategy - The success of the U8 product line is attributed to Yanjing Beer’s unique market characteristics, which facilitate rapid distribution and stable pricing. Additionally, the profit-sharing model for U8 ensures adequate margins for distribution channels while retaining significant profits for the company [5]. Cost Management - The optimization of depreciation and amortization expenses has significantly improved profit margins. The proportion of key depreciation and amortization costs relative to profits has decreased from over five times in 2017 to 63% in 2024, with further improvements expected in 2025 [5]. Operational Efficiency - Yanjing Beer has achieved a substantial increase in operational efficiency, reducing its workforce by 49% and production staff by 59% from 2015 to 2024, while simultaneously increasing revenue by 17% and net profit by 80%. This has resulted in a doubling of per capita compensation, creating a positive feedback loop of improved performance [5]. Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin has consistently improved, rising from 1.91% in 2021 to 7.2% in 2024, and further to 12.89% in the first half of 2025. There remains a gap of approximately 6 percentage points compared to competitors, indicating further potential for profit margin expansion [6]. Investment Outlook - Projections for Yanjing Beer’s revenue from 2025 to 2027 are 15.34 billion, 16.14 billion, and 16.93 billion RMB, representing year-on-year growth rates of 4.6%, 5.2%, and 4.9%, respectively. The expected net profits for the same period are 1.53 billion, 1.79 billion, and 2.07 billion RMB, with significant growth rates of 45.1%, 17%, and 15.3% [7].

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 12月11日，燕京啤酒在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至2025年12月10日，公司股 东总户数为42899户。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage industry [1][4][5] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a transformation driven by diverse consumer demands and supply upgrades, with structural opportunities expected to persist in 2026 despite a moderate recovery in overall demand [2][29] - The report highlights the importance of adapting to new retail channels and consumer preferences, emphasizing the need for product differentiation and quality enhancement [2][29] Summary by Sections Review of 2025 - The overall industry performance was weak, with a decline of 5.3% in the food and beverage sector, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 19.4 percentage points [1][25] - Consumer confidence remained low, with urban residents' disposable income growth slowing to 4.4% year-on-year [1][12] - The soft drink sector maintained relative strength, while the snack industry showed mixed results, with leading companies continuing to expand [1][20] Outlook for 2026 - Structural opportunities are anticipated, with a focus on channel diversification and supply upgrades [2][29] - The report predicts a shift in consumer preferences towards high-quality, reasonably priced products, with an emphasis on additional value attributes such as convenience and health [2][29] - The beverage sector is expected to benefit from the development of non-traditional channels and the introduction of differentiated products [33][47] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that enhance product quality and service, such as Baba Foods and Wanchen Group [3][4] - It highlights high-growth categories with health attributes, recommending companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring [3][4] - The report also identifies companies with strong performance recovery potential, such as Anjijia Foods and Yihai International [3][4] Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Companies such as Yanjing Beer, Weilong Delicious, and Yili Group are rated as "Outperform" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth [4][5] - The report provides detailed earnings forecasts and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for various companies, indicating a generally positive outlook for the sector [4][5]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the food and beverage industry experienced a slowdown in 2025, with a 5.3% decline in the sector, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 19.4 percentage points [1][25] - The soft drink sector maintained relative strength, while the snack industry showed mixed performance, with leading companies continuing to expand [1][20] - Consumer confidence remained low, with the disposable income growth rate for urban residents at 4.4% year-on-year, reflecting weak internal demand [12][20] Group 2 - Looking ahead to 2026, the report identifies structural opportunities in the consumer goods sector, driven by channel differentiation and supply upgrades [2][29] - The report emphasizes the need for consumer goods companies to adapt to new retail channels and enhance product differentiation to meet evolving consumer preferences [2][29] - The anticipated recovery in consumer confidence and macroeconomic policies is expected to shift consumer focus from extreme price competition to a preference for quality and added value [2][29] Group 3 - Investment recommendations for 2026 include focusing on high-quality and differentiated products, with specific companies highlighted such as Babi Foods and Wanchen Group [3][4] - The report suggests that companies with strong performance recovery expectations, such as Anjui Foods and Yihai International, should be considered for investment [3][4] - High dividend or comprehensive shareholder return stocks, such as Yili Group, are also recommended for investors [3][4] Group 4 - The report provides earnings forecasts and investment ratings for key companies, indicating a positive outlook for companies like Yanjing Beer and Nongfu Spring [4][5] - The food and beverage sector's overall revenue and profit growth rates have weakened, with the industry experiencing a cumulative revenue growth of only 0.3% and a profit decline of 4.5% in the first three quarters of 2025 [20][22] - The snack sector's revenue growth was primarily driven by the expansion of Wanchen Group, while other segments faced challenges [20][22]

Group 1: Food and Beverage Industry - The report emphasizes prioritizing growth while focusing on undervalued traditional consumer leaders with strong long-term growth certainty, particularly in the soft drink sector, where companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage show increased valuation attractiveness [1][4] - Recommendations include growth-oriented and stable targets in the liquor sector, such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai, alongside structural high-growth beverage companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring [2] - The snack and food raw material sectors are highlighted for growth opportunities, with companies like Bailing Chuangyuan and Three Squirrels recommended for investment [2] Group 2: Strategy and Market Trends - The AI industry continues to show high prosperity, with demand for high-end storage devices like DRAM DDR4 increasing, driven by ongoing AI infrastructure investments [5][7] - Service consumption has seen a significant year-on-year increase, with notable improvements in tourism and entertainment sectors, indicating a shift towards light consumption types [6] - The real estate and durable goods sectors are experiencing a marginal decline in prosperity, with industrial metal prices rising significantly due to global supply dynamics [5][6] Group 3: Biopharmaceuticals - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kefu Medical, highlighting a strong revenue growth of 30.72% in Q3 2025, with a focus on improving operational efficiency in its hearing aid business [9][10]

Core Insights - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF (159736) has seen significant trading activity, with a transaction volume of 27.0065 million yuan and a net inflow of 15.2008 million yuan as of December 9, indicating strong investor interest in the sector [1][2]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF (159736) tracked the CSI Food and Beverage Index (930653), which rose by 0.42% [1]. - Notable constituent stocks include Huanlejia (300997) with a 12.83% increase, XinNuoWei (300765) up by 9.28%, and Huaiqi Mountain (601579) rising by 3.91% [1]. - Over the past five trading days, the ETF has attracted a total of 13.7841 million yuan in net inflows [1]. Group 2: Product Highlights - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF (159736) primarily invests in high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, with approximately 60% of its portfolio allocated to leading liquor brands and 40% to beverages, dairy, and seasoning sectors [3]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the ETF include major brands such as Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yanghe, as well as dairy giant Yili and seasoning leader Haitian [3]. Group 3: Market Events - The Guizhou Provincial Government has proposed measures to boost liquor sales, including enhancing online promotions and creating diverse consumption scenarios [6]. - The measures aim to increase the market presence of Guizhou liquor through initiatives like issuing consumption vouchers and supporting financial collaborations with liquor companies [6]. Group 4: Agricultural Sector Insights - The Tianhong Agricultural ETF (512620) has also shown positive performance, with the CSI Agricultural Theme Index (000949) increasing by 0.49% [2]. - Key stocks in the agricultural ETF include Luoniushan (000735) with a 7.76% rise and Shengnong Development (002299) up by 3.59% [2]. - The agricultural sector is currently experiencing a decrease in pork prices, with the national average price at a five-year low, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [7]. Group 5: Institutional Perspectives - Dongwu Securities has expressed a cautiously optimistic outlook for consumer spending, suggesting that while consumption has been under pressure, there are signs of marginal improvement expected by 2026 [8]. - The report highlights the importance of recent government policies aimed at stimulating consumption, including subsidies for various sectors [8].

Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage sector experienced a rise against the market trend, with the Food ETF (515710) showing a recovery after a brief dip, indicating potential investment opportunities in this sector [1][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Food ETF (515710) opened lower but quickly rebounded, achieving a maximum intraday increase of 0.68% and closing up by 0.34% [1][7]. - Key stocks in the sector, particularly in the liquor category, saw significant gains, with New Noble rising over 9%, Yanjing Beer increasing by over 3%, and several others like Jiu Gui Jiu and Jin Zhong Zi Jiu rising over 2% [1][7]. Group 2: Policy Impact - On December 9, a draft policy from Guizhou Province aimed at promoting liquor sales was released, focusing on enhancing online sales and expanding market reach through various channels, including supermarkets and convenience stores [3][9]. - This policy is expected to directly benefit Guizhou liquor companies by creating new sales opportunities and stabilizing market expectations [3][9]. Group 3: Valuation Insights - The food and beverage sector is currently at a historical low in terms of valuation, with the Food ETF's underlying index PE ratio at 19.93, placing it in the 4.11% percentile of the last decade, suggesting a favorable long-term investment opportunity [3][9]. - Analysts recommend focusing on companies with strong demand stability and risk resilience, as well as those actively exploring new products and sales channels [10]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - It is suggested to consider the Food ETF (515710) for exposure to core assets in the food and beverage sector, which includes a significant allocation to leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks [10]. - The ETF also diversifies into beverage, dairy, seasoning, and beer sectors, with top holdings including renowned brands like Moutai and Yili [10].

Group 1 - The company, Yongshuntai, has over 20 years of collaboration history with major beer manufacturers such as Budweiser, Carlsberg, Heineken, China Resources Snow Beer, Tsingtao Brewery, Yanjing Beer, and Zhujiang Beer [2] - Yongshuntai is actively promoting cooperation with regional small and medium-sized clients as well as craft beer customers through its production bases located in Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Hebei [2] - The company is capable of quickly and efficiently responding to various customer needs by providing a wide range of high-quality specialty malt, customized malt products, and attentive after-sales service [2]