Core Insights - The overall demand for the liquor market has declined compared to previous years, but the high-end liquor market prices have stabilized, driven by Moutai [2][5] - Many institutions are optimistic about a rebound in the liquor industry in the second half of 2026, despite current market caution from liquor merchants [2][5] Group 1: Market Trends - The 2026 Spring Festival liquor market is expected to be the "coldest" in history, with a psychological expectation of this among industry players [3] - There is a noticeable shift in consumption habits, with fewer people attending gatherings and a decrease in the number of tables at banquets [3] - Sales of liquor are reported to have declined by 10% to 20% across multiple provinces during the 2026 Spring Festival [3] Group 2: Price Stability - High-end liquor prices, particularly for Moutai, have stabilized, with the wholesale price of Moutai around 1700 yuan per bottle, up approximately 150 yuan from the end of 2025 [5] - Other premium brands like Wuliangye and Fenjiu have also shown price stability, indicating a potential recovery in consumer sentiment [5][6] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The market is experiencing a "two extremes hot, middle cold" situation, where products priced between 100-200 yuan and above 800 yuan are performing well, while mid-range products face pressure [6] - The core products of leading liquor companies are selling well, but the profit margins for these products are limited, indicating a complex market situation [6] - The stabilization of high-end liquor prices is seen as a signal of industry bottoming out, but further recovery depends on the restoration of business dining and overall economic support for high-end consumption [6]

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor market is experiencing a downturn in demand, particularly for the 2026 Spring Festival, but high-end liquor prices have stabilized, driven by Moutai's influence [1][6]. Market Overview - Despite concerns about the 2026 Spring Festival being the "coldest" for the white liquor market, several institutions are optimistic about a rebound in the second half of 2026 [1]. - The overall demand for white liquor has declined compared to previous years, with many retailers adopting a wait-and-see approach for the current market [1][7]. Consumer Behavior - Consumer habits have shifted towards more rational spending, with a decrease in the number of tables and guests at banquets, now typically not exceeding eight people [2]. - E-commerce has diverted some traditional offline demand, allowing consumers to purchase liquor quickly even during the Spring Festival [1]. Price Trends - High-end liquor prices, particularly for Moutai, have stabilized, with the wholesale price of Moutai remaining around 1,700 RMB per bottle, up approximately 150 RMB from the end of 2025 [6]. - Other premium brands like Wuliangye and Fenjiu have also shown price stabilization, indicating a potential recovery in the high-end market [6]. Market Dynamics - The market is characterized by a "two extremes hot, middle cold" situation, where products priced between 100-200 RMB and above 800 RMB are performing well, while mid-range products face pressure [7]. - The core products of leading liquor companies are selling well, but the profit margins for these products are limited, indicating a complex market situation [7]. Future Outlook - Analysts expect that the high-end liquor market's stabilization is a sign of industry recovery, although the market is still in a fragile state [7][8]. - The recovery of business banquets and the overall economic environment will be crucial for supporting high-end consumption in the future [8].

行业整体动销下滑约10%、符合预期，#其中茅台及五粮液表现超预期，此外古井、迎驾、汾酒、剑南春、今世缘 表现相对较优，其余酒企仍处调整期，行业触底特征明显，头部酒企批价下行&库存压力继续提升的风险较小。 【建投食饮|杨骥】白酒春节总结：分化加剧&行业触底，强推超预期的茅台&五粮液（20260223） 白酒春节总结：#核心关键词为"分化"&"触底"、行业周期大底复苏第一阶段。 行业整体动销下滑约10%、符合预期，#其中茅台及五粮液表现超预期，此外古井、迎驾、汾酒、剑南春、今世缘 表现相对较优，其余酒企仍处调整期，行业触底特征明显，头部酒企批价下行&库存压力继续提升的风险较小。 【建投食饮|杨骥】白酒春节总结：分化加剧&行业触底，强推超预期的茅台&五粮液（20260223） 白酒春节总结：#核心关键词为"分化"&"触底"、行业周期大底复苏第一阶段。 #差异化认知：我们认为当前为行业十年周期大底复苏第一阶段，特征为"分化&触底"，具体看： ①品牌及价位分化加剧，茅台及五粮液春节超预期，其余多数酒企仍在调整：中高端大众价位较优、高端价位稳 健、次高端价位承压，其中茅台和五粮液表现超预期，#茅台在春节期间动销、出货、批 ...

白酒春节反馈总结：关注高端及大众价位超预期表现 大众价位带（今世缘等）则受益于#超长假期走亲访友及大众聚饮宴席需求的爆发。 茅台：#动销量超预期，春节飞天线下渠道动销增长20%，考虑i茅台投放增长超30%，主因春节期间#个人消费群 体对散茅的需求爆发（往年茅台备货节前大部分提前完成）。 预计1-2月茅台任务完成度将达45%（比往年快10个点），一季度达50%，将压力前置。 当前库存几乎为零，为后续批价坚挺提供基础，但由于非标系列缩量明显（同比下滑20-30%），需关注后续酒厂 供给端调整。 总体情况：量的层面预计动销整体下滑10%左右，考虑价格因素下滑15-20%，略好于预期，其中高端及大众价位 带表现较优。 具体来看，高端（茅、五）#降价后需求弹性凸显，激发了大众消费热度，相应弥补政商场景的缺失，此外#禁酒 令压制的礼赠需求也在春节有一定释放。 大众价位带（今世缘等）则受益于#超长假期走亲访友及大众聚饮宴席需求的爆发。 白酒春节反馈总结：关注高端及大众价位超预期表现 总体情况：量的层面预计动销整体下滑10%左右，考虑价格因素下滑15-20%，略好于预期，其中高端及大众价位 带表现较优。 具体来看，高端（茅、 ...

Group 1 - Industry Investment Rating: Buy [2] - Previous Rating: Buy [2] - Report Date: February 24, 2026 [2] Group 2 - Core Viewpoint: The report summarizes feedback from six liquor distributors across five provinces regarding the sales performance of liquor during the Spring Festival, indicating a narrowing decline in sales of famous liquor compared to the Mid-Autumn Festival. The C-end scenarios, such as banquets, performed well with an upgrade trend, while B-end scenarios are still recovering [6][9][14] - Feedback from Henan liquor distributors indicates that Moutai and Wuliangye are leading in sales, with Moutai's return rate exceeding 35% and Wuliangye's at 30%. There is a trend of consumers concentrating on famous liquor across different price ranges [6][9] - In Shandong, Fenjiu is performing well in the mid-range segment, with a reported sales growth of approximately 8% during the Spring Festival [10] - In Anhui, the wedding market showed strong performance, particularly in the 200 CNY price range, which is experiencing growth [11] - Jiangsu distributors reported a mixed performance, with strong sales at both ends of the market but weakness in the mid-range, indicating a systemic price-driven volume increase [13] - In Sichuan, overall sales volume is expected to decline by 8% and sales amount by 15%, with personal and gift consumption performing better than expected [13] Group 3 - Investment Recommendations: For liquor, the sector is expected to enter a new development cycle in 2026 after four years of adjustment. Key recommendations include Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Shede Liquor, Guizhou Moutai, Jianshe Liquor, and Gujing Gongjiu. For consumer goods, the industry is expected to see a moderate price increase in 2026, with opportunities in new products and channels. Key recommendations include Anjoy Food, Lihua Food, Angel Yeast, Yanjing Beer, Qianhe Flavor Industry, Dongpeng Beverage, New Dairy, Guoquan, and Tianwei Food [14]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Buy" [5] Core Insights - The 2026 Spring Festival consumption exceeded expectations, with service consumption leading the growth, driven by a significant increase in dining and travel demand [2][7] - The report highlights a notable recovery in the travel sector, with an expected total of 9.5 billion people traveling during the Spring Festival, marking a historical high [10][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of quality and experience in consumer spending, with a shift towards premium products and services [7][19] Summary by Sections 1. Spring Festival Consumption Trends - The Spring Festival holiday from February 15 to 23, 2026, saw a "good start" in consumption, with key retail and dining enterprises reporting a 10.6% increase in average daily sales compared to the same period in 2025 [10][22] - The first four days of the holiday recorded an 8.6% increase in average daily sales for key retail and dining enterprises compared to the previous year [10][19] - Government initiatives, including a 20.5 billion yuan fund for consumer subsidies, significantly boosted consumer spending [11][10] 2. Baijiu (Chinese Liquor) Market - The Baijiu market showed signs of improvement, with a narrowing decline compared to previous major holidays, although brand differentiation became more pronounced [27][30] - High-end Baijiu brands like Moutai and Wuliangye continued to lead the market, with a focus on price elasticity and rational consumer behavior [27][30] - The report identifies three key changes in the Baijiu market: increased importance of personal consumption, a more relaxed approach from manufacturers regarding sales targets, and improved channel sentiment [30][31] 3. Snack and Food Market - The snack market is expected to benefit from an extended peak season, with a longer preparation and sales cycle compared to 2025 [33][34] - Offline channels, particularly membership-based supermarkets and discount stores, are performing better than online channels, with significant growth in sales during the holiday period [34][35] - The report notes a diversification in snack offerings, with strong performance in high-quality nut gift boxes and innovative packaging strategies enhancing brand visibility [35][36]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Viewpoints - During the Spring Festival, national catering and retail consumption showed steady growth, with holiday consumption potential continuing to be released. According to the Ministry of Commerce, the average daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises during the first four days of the Spring Festival in 2026 increased by 8.6% compared to the same period in 2025 [5][19] - The performance of Moutai and Wuliangye, as well as some mid-to-low-end price segments, exceeded expectations, while the overall performance of Fenjiu remained stable [15][19] Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Weekly Viewpoints - Moutai and mid-to-low-end liquor sales during the Spring Festival showed growth, while sub-premium liquor continued to face pressure. Moutai's repayment progress slightly exceeded the same period last year, and Wuliangye's repayment progress remained stable [15][6] - The mid-to-low-end liquor segment is expected to achieve double-digit growth during the Spring Festival, while high-end liquor sales are under pressure [15][6] 2. Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline, with the Shenwan Food and Beverage Industry Index (801120.SL) dropping by 2.51% during the week of February 9 to February 14, ranking 29th among 30 Shenwan primary industries [20] - All sub-sectors within the food and beverage industry saw declines, with meat products, health products, and baked goods experiencing relatively smaller drops [20] 3. Key Company Announcements - Luzhou Laojiao announced that the number of restricted stock units eligible for release is 1,962,814 shares, accounting for 0.1333% of the company's total share capital [29] - Miaokelan Duo signed a memorandum with SADAFCO to explore the market for children's cheese snacks in Saudi Arabia [29] 4. Important Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce announced anti-subsidy measures for EU companies, with rates ranging from 7.4% to 11.7%, effective from February 13, 2026 [31] - Kangshifu launched a new product, Kangshifu Ice Red Tea Energy, entering the energy drink market [31] 5. Industry Chain Data Tracking - As of February 10, 2026, wheat prices were 2,510.8 RMB/ton, up 6.45% year-on-year, while pork prices were 18.08 RMB/kg, down 11.63% year-on-year [34][36]

Group 1: Economic Resilience - The Chinese economy remains strong during the Spring Festival, with many listed companies continuing operations to meet market demand and fulfill orders [1][2][8] - Companies like LiuGong and TianNai Technology are maintaining production during the holiday to capitalize on increased demand, particularly from overseas markets [2][3] Group 2: Manufacturing Sector - Manufacturing companies are strategically scheduling production and reasonable breaks to ensure continuous delivery and meet customer needs [2][3] - LiuGong reported significant growth in industry demand, leading to a busy production schedule during the holiday [2] - TianNai Technology is also continuing production to better serve customers due to rapid market demand for its products [2] Group 3: Consumer Sector - The Spring Festival is a peak consumption period, with companies like Quanjude and Guangzhou Restaurant Group launching various marketing activities to attract customers [4][5] - Quanjude has prepared for a strong demand for New Year's Eve dinners and is implementing online and offline marketing strategies [4] - Guangzhou Restaurant Group is promoting themed activities and special menus to enhance customer engagement during the holiday [4][5] Group 4: Digital Technology Integration - Companies are leveraging digital technology to enhance traditional festive experiences, such as the fully digitalized lantern festival in Shanghai [7] - Cybersecurity firm Qihoo 360 is providing 24/7 technical support during the holiday to ensure smooth operations for clients [7] - AI service provider Zongheng Communication anticipates increased traffic and engagement on major platforms during the Spring Festival, which may positively impact its business [7] Group 5: Overseas Projects - Some companies are accelerating overseas projects during the Spring Festival, with Hongbang Biological confirming that construction is proceeding as planned in Australia and Indonesia [8]

出行票房等数据亮眼 机场的数据折射出新春"开门红"，客流量持续增长。今年2月20日，上海国际机场股份有限公司（以下 简称"上海机场"）单日客流量达到42.49万人次，其中浦东机场27.57万人次、虹桥机场14.92万人次，同 比增长6.4%，创下历史新高，迎来新年"开门红"。上海机场预计，今年春运期间，上海浦东、虹桥两场 的航班量将达到9.6万架次（浦东机场6.5万架次、虹桥机场3.1万架次），同比增长1.9%；旅客吞吐量达 到1553万人次，日均38.8万人次，同比增长3.6%。 今年春运，随着我国免签"朋友圈"再增加加拿大、英国两国，以及出入境游、北方冰雪游、南方避寒游 热度持续走高，上海机场客流量持续增长。快报数据显示，自2月2日春运启动至2月20日，上海机场共 保障进出港航班超4.6万架次，其中浦东机场3.1万架次、虹桥机场1.5万架次，同比春运同期增长2.7%； 保障进出港旅客743.4万人次，其中浦东机场480.6万人次、虹桥机场262.8万人次，同比春运同期增长 3.8%。 广州白云国际机场股份有限公司（以下简称"白云机场"）春节期间多项数据创历史新高。2026年春运第 20天（2月21日），白 ...

th 7 R t 新华财经上海2月23日电（记者杜康）春节长假临近尾声，今年春节档拥有9天"史上最长假期"的加持，给消费注入十足动力。来自部分沪市公司的数据显 示，今年春节期间出行、票房等数据都释放了积极信号，同时，文旅、白酒、食品等公司也借助"年味"加速文旅融合或强化互动，助力消费"开足马力"。 从机场"热力图"到影院"人气榜" 节日消费数据迎来"开门红" 春节长假期间，机场客流量持续增长。2月20日，上海机场单日客流量达到42.49万人次，其中浦东机场27.57万人次、虹桥机场14.92万人次，同比增长 6.4%，创下历史新高，迎来新年"开门红"。上海机场预计，今年春运期间，上海浦东、虹桥两场的航班量将达到9.6万架次，同比增长1.9%；旅客吞吐量达 到1553万人次，日均38.8万人次，同比增长3.6%。 今年春运，随着我国免签"朋友圈"再扩大，以及北方冰雪游、南方避寒游热度持续走高，上海机场客流量持续增长。快报数据显示，自2月2日春运启动至2 月20日，上海机场共保障进出港航班超4.6万架次，其中浦东机场3.1万架次、虹桥机场1.5万架次，同比增长2.7%；保障进出港旅客743.4万人次，其中浦东 机 ...