Report Overview - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: January 21, 2026 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core Viewpoints - The spot market shows signs of reaching a peak, with the Shanghai Port's export freight rate to European base ports falling after rising, and the SCFIS index also dropping slightly. Multiple shipping companies have started to lower their quotes for late January, indicating that the inflection point of the spot high has emerged. Considering the frequent resumption of shipping by airlines despite the Red Sea situation, it is expected that normal passage will likely resume this year. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities for the April contract during the off - season [8]. Summary by Section 1.行情回顾与操作建议 - Spot market: The Shanghai Port's export freight rate to European base ports stopped rising and started to fall, with a 2.5% drop to $1676/TEU. The SCFIS index also declined slightly. Shipping companies such as Maersk and OOCL have lowered their quotes for late January, suggesting that the spot high has passed [8]. - Operation suggestion: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the April contract during the off - season [8]. 2.行业要闻 - Market situation from January 12 - 16: In response to the "Spring Festival" holiday in the next month, the cargo volume increased slightly, while the freight rates on ocean routes and the comprehensive index declined. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index dropped 4.4% to 1574.12 points [9]. - European routes: The Sentix euro - zone investor confidence index in January was - 1.8, better than expected. The shipping demand was stable with a slight increase, the average cabin utilization rate in Shanghai Port was nearly full, and the freight rate dropped slightly, with the Shanghai Port's export freight rate to European base ports falling 2.5% to $1676/TEU [9]. - Mediterranean routes: Similar to European routes, the spot market booking price dropped more than that of European routes, with the Shanghai Port's export freight rate to Mediterranean base ports falling 7.7% to $2983/TEU [9]. - North American routes: The number of first - time unemployment benefit applicants in the US in the second week of January was 198,000, better than expected. The shipping market supply - demand situation was generally stable, the average cabin utilization rate in Shanghai Port was over 90%, and the spot market booking price fluctuated slightly. The Shanghai Port's export freight rates to the US West and East base ports were $2194/FEU and $3165/FEU respectively, with a 1.1% drop and a 1.2% increase respectively [10]. - Policy news: The Shanghai International Energy Exchange announced that the adjustment of the contract months of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures will be implemented from February 10, 2026, adding EC2605, EC2607, EC2609, and not adding EC2603. On March 31, 2026, EC2703 will be added [10]. - International news: The US announced the second phase of the Gaza cease - fire plan, but there are differences between Netanyahu and Trump. The US and the UK launched a large - scale military strike against the Houthi rebels in Yemen on January 12. The Houthi rebels warned Saudi Arabia against military action, and the Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council announced the establishment of a supreme military council [10]. 3.数据概览 3.1集运现货价格 - SCFIS for European routes (base ports) on January 19 was 1954.19, down 0.1% from January 12 [12]. - SCFIS for US West routes (base ports) on January 19 was 1305.27, down 1.4% from January 12 [12]. 3.2集运指数（欧线）期货行情 - The trading data of Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures on January 20 is presented in Table 1, including details such as the previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change for different contracts [6]. 3.3航运相关数据走势图 - The report provides multiple charts, including the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index, the trend of the main and secondary main contracts of Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures, European container ship capacity, global container ship orders on hand, Shanghai - European base port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [13][18][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - MSC's online prices in February remain the same as in January, and the focus is on Maersk's WEEK6 quotation. The SCFIS at the beginning of February is an important point of contention for the settlement price of the February contract. The cargo volume in December and January is at a relatively high level within the year. The delivery of ultra-large vessels in 2026 has relatively less pressure, while the annual delivery volume of vessels over 17,000 TEU in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships. The cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic products may disrupt the off - season nature of the 04 contract, and the volatility of the 04 contract is expected to increase. Maersk's attempt to resume navigation through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal will affect the expectations of more distant - month contracts. The 2 - month contract is expected to fluctuate, and the 4 - month contract is driven by a bearish trend [1][2][3][4][6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Futures Price - As of January 19, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European route) futures is 62,201.00 lots, and the daily trading volume is 36,458.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2612 contracts are 1714.30, 1132.20, 1318.00, 1459.00, 1054.10, and 1300.00 respectively [7]. II. Spot Price - Online quotations from different shipping alliances are provided, including the prices of Maersk, HPL, MSC, ONE, HMM, CMA, EMC, and OOCL for different time periods from Shanghai to Rotterdam. The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price on January 16 is 1676 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price is 2194 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price is 3165 US dollars/FEU. The SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on January 19 is 1954.19 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 1305.27 points [1][7]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU. For 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, 80 ships have been delivered with a total capacity of 1.213 million TEU; for ships over 17,000 TEU, 13 ships have been delivered with a total capacity of 277,672 TEU. The expected delivery of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships from 2026 - 2029 is 781,200 TEU (53 ships), 944,500 TEU (64 ships), 1.212 million TEU (82 ships), and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) respectively. The expected delivery of ships over 17,000 TEU from 2026 - 2029 is 210,400 TEU (9 ships), 862,800 TEU (40 ships), 1.5734 million TEU (78 ships), and 1.3755 million TEU (67 ships) respectively [2][3]. - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly capacity in January is 342,200 TEU, with the capacities in WEEK4 and WEEK5 being 408,600 TEU and 275,800 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in February is 273,700 TEU, and the capacities in WEEK6, WEEK7, WEEK8, and WEEK9 are 255,800 TEU, 325,200 TEU, 292,100 TEU, and 221,800 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in March is 289,700 TEU. There are 2 TBNs and 8 blank sailings in February and 5 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in March [3]. IV. Supply Chain - Not provided with specific analysis content in the given text, only figure references are given V. Demand and European Economy - Not provided with specific analysis content in the given text, only figure references are given 4. Strategy - **Unilateral**: The 2 - month contract is expected to fluctuate, and the 4 - month contract is driven by a bearish trend [8]. - **Arbitrage**: None at present [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The European shipping line currently shows a "near - strong, far - weak" oscillating pattern. Spot quotes are continuously loosening, with the FAK central price of the three major alliances dropping to $2200 - 2700/FEU. The main futures contract is oscillating weakly. The EC2602 contract is supported by pre - holiday shipments, while the EC2604 contract has fallen by over 8% due to off - season expectations. The core drivers are Maersk's leading the resumption of Red Sea voyages, combined with the shipping capacity growth rate exceeding demand, and the long - term pressure of oversupply remaining unchanged. Short - term exports of photovoltaic and battery products provide marginal support. It will oscillate in the short term, and the far - month contracts are suppressed by resumption expectations. It's necessary to closely monitor the route recovery rhythm and shipping company pricing to seize interval opportunities [9]. 3. Summary by Related Content Shipping Index - The current value of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is 1574, down 4.45% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1210, up 1.25%. For different routes, SCFI - US West is 2194, down 1.08%; SCFIS - US West is 1305, down 1.36%; SCFI - US East is 3163, up 1.12%; SCFI - Northwest Europe is 1676, down 2.50%; SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 1954, down 0.10%; SCFI - Mediterranean is 2983, down 7.70% [6]. Spot Price - OCEAN Alliance: CMA CGM's quote is relatively firm at $3693/FEU; COSCO Shipping is at $3325/FEU; Evergreen Marine has dropped about $400 to $3030 - 3130/FEU; Orient Overseas Container Line has dropped $150 to $2880/FEU. The overall FAK central price is about $2700 - 3300/FEU. - GEMINI Alliance: Maersk's price dropped from $1695/2730 (20'/40') in Week 4 (January 20 - 26) to $1510/2420 in Week 5, with non - European base ports as low as $2400/FEU; Hapag - Lloyd's price is $1585/2535 (20'/40'), and the February quote remains unchanged. The overall FMK central price is about $2400 - 2700/FEU. - PREMIER Alliance + MSC: MSC is at $1580/2640 (20'/40'); Ocean Network Express (ONE) is at $1680/2635 (20'/40') with the same price in February; Yang Ming Marine Transport's price is relatively stable at about $2600/FEU; HMM's quote is relatively low at $1433/2436 (20'/40'). The overall FAK central price is about $2400 - 2650/FEU [7]. Strategy Pay attention to the opportunity of short - allocating off - season contracts [10].

Report Information - Report Name: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: January 20, 2026 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot market shows signs of peaking. The Shanghai Port's export freight rate to European base ports stopped rising and fell last weekend, and the SCFIS index also declined slightly on Monday. Multiple airlines have started to lower their quotes for late January. The signal of airlines reducing prices to attract cargo is evident, and the inflection point of the spot high should have appeared. With the Red Sea situation causing disruptions but airlines resuming flights, it is likely that normal passage will be restored this year. Attention should be paid to short-selling opportunities in the April contract during the off - season [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: The Shanghai Port's export freight rate to European base ports was reported at $1676/TEU, a 2.5% decline from the previous period. Multiple airlines, including Maersk, OOCL, HMM, and ONE, have lowered their quotes for late January [8]. - Operation Suggestion: Focus on short - selling opportunities in the April contract during the off - season [8]. 3.2. Industry News - Market Overview (January 12 - January 16): To cope with the "Spring Festival" holiday, cargo volume increased slightly, but freight rates on ocean routes decreased slightly, and the comprehensive index declined. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index on January 16 was 1574.12 points, a 4.4% decline from the previous period [9]. - European Routes: The Sentix January euro - zone investor confidence index was - 1.8, better than the expected - 4.9. Transport demand was stable with a slight increase, but the average freight rate from Shanghai Port to European base ports on January 16 was $1676/TEU, a 2.5% decline from the previous period [9]. - Mediterranean Routes: Similar to European routes, but the spot market booking price declined more. The average freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean base ports on January 16 was $2983/TEU, a 7.7% decline from the previous period [9]. - North American Routes: The number of first - time unemployment benefit applicants in the US in the second week of January was 198,000, better than expected. The shipping market supply - demand situation was generally stable, and the spot market booking price fluctuated slightly. The freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East base ports on January 16 were $2194/FEU and $3165/FEU respectively, with changes of - 1.1% and + 1.2% from the previous period [9][10]. - Policy News: The Shanghai International Energy Exchange announced that the adjustment of the contract months of the Container Freight Index (European Line) futures would be implemented from February 10, 2026, with new contracts EC2605, EC2607, EC2609 added, and no addition of EC2603 considering the main contract switch. EC2703 will be added on March 31, 2026 [10]. - International News: The US announced the second phase of the Gaza cease - fire plan on January 14. On January 12, the US and the UK launched a large - scale military strike against the Houthi rebels in Yemen. The Houthi rebels warned Saudi Arabia against military action [10]. 3.3. Data Overview 3.3.1. Container Shipping Spot Prices | Route | 2026/1/19 | 2026/1/12 | Change | YoY (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS: European Routes (Basic Ports) | 1954.19 | 1956.39 | - 2.2 | - 0.1% | | SCFIS: US West Routes (Basic Ports) | 1305.27 | 1323.98 | - 18.71 | - 1.4% | [12] 3.3.2. Container Freight Index (European Line) Futures Market - Multiple figures show the trends of the main and secondary main contracts of container shipping European line futures, as well as shipping - related data trends such as European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, and Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rates [18][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The集运指数（欧线）is in a temporary volatile market. Although the first quarter has marginal positive factors from the rush - shipping of photovoltaic and battery products, it cannot reverse the weak supply - demand balance in the off - season of the European line from March to April. Different strategies are recommended for different contracts, such as rolling short - selling for the 2604 contract, and treating the 2606 contract as a wide - range volatile market [10][11][13][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: The 2604 contract of the集运指数（欧线）closed at 1132.2 points yesterday, down 1.77% with a reduction of 744 lots in positions; the 2606 contract closed at 1318.0 points, down 2.33% with an increase of 420 lots in positions [10]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: The average FAK in the 4th week may be around $2600/FEU. Different shipping companies and alliances have different price trends, with most showing a downward or stable - to - downward trend [14]. 3.2 Capacity Side - **Capacity Adjustment**: The shipping schedules of the AEU7 and FE4 routes at the end of January are generally delayed. The capacity statistics in the 5th week (1/26 - 2/1) increased by 2 blank sailings, and the capacity statistics in February (2/2 - 3/1) decreased by 2 blank sailings. The weekly average capacity in March was revised up from 28.4 to 29.5 million TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 9.5% and a month - on - month increase of 5.2% [11]. - **Capacity Distribution around Spring Festival**: The Spring Festival suspension of shipping is mainly concentrated from the end of February to the first week of March. The average capacity before, during, and after the Spring Festival in 2026 is 30.6, 23.4, and 32.2 million TEU/week respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of - 0.1%, 9.1%, and 26.3% respectively, indicating greater capacity pressure after the festival [11]. 3.3 Geopolitical Side - The unstable situation in Iran has risen, and the geopolitical risks in the Middle East may fluctuate. Maersk announced that its independently operated MECL route connecting the US East and India/Middle East will resume structural operations at the end of January and has prepared contingency plans [12]. 3.4 Demand Side - **Policy Impact**: The adjustment of export VAT rebate policies for photovoltaic and battery products may lead to 2 - 5 million TEU of transportation demand for the European line and 4 - 7 million TEU for the Europe - Mediterranean route being advanced from Q2 to Q1. The concentrated rush - shipping may occur from the end of February to March [13]. - **Loading Rate Concern**: The capacity level from February 23 to March 8 is relatively low, with an average of 20.1 million TEU/week. Attention should be paid to the loading rate during these two weeks. The probability of full - load and shipping companies announcing a GRI increase on March 1 is low, and it is difficult to change the over - capacity pattern in March [13]. 3.5 Contract Strategies - **2602 Contract**: The valuation may be around 1700 points. It is expected to have narrow - range, position - reducing fluctuations in the future [15]. - **2604 Contract**: Although there are marginal positive factors in the first quarter, the weak supply - demand balance in the off - season cannot be reversed. It can be considered for rolling short - selling in the next 1 - 2 months, with the upper pressure level in the range of 1200 - 1250 points [15]. - **2606 Contract**: It is expected to maintain a wide - range volatile trend, and the trading strategy should be based on this wide - range volatility [15]. - **2610 Contract**: Short positions can be held as appropriate, and attention should be paid to the progress of the Gaza peace negotiation and the geopolitical situation in Iran [16]. 3.6 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of the集运指数（欧线）is 0, indicating a neutral trend [17].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The container shipping index (European Line) is expected to oscillate weakly. The 2602 contract is recommended for observation, the 2604 contract can consider rolling short positions, and the 2610 contract should hold short positions lightly and short on rallies in the medium - to - long - term. The trend strength of the container shipping index (European Line) is -1 [11][15]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Market Performance - The main 2604 contract of the container shipping index (European Line) closed at 1202.7 points, with an increase of 788 lots in positions and a decline of 0.07%. The secondary main 2602 contract closed at 1719.0 points, with a decrease of 1583 lots in positions and a rise of 0.5% [11]. 2. Fundamental Data 2.1 Futures Data | Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | Trading Volume/Open Interest (Yesterday) | Trading Volume/Open Interest (Day before Yesterday) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2602 | 1719.0 | 0.50% | 2673 | 8878 | -1583 | 0.30 | 0.54 | | EC2604 | 1202.7 | -0.07% | 40524 | 40832 | 788 | 0.99 | 1.13 | [1] 2.2 Freight Rate Index Data - SCFIS: European route was 1956.39 points, with a weekly increase of 8.9%; US West route was 1323.98 points, with a weekly increase of 5.9%. - SCFI: European route was $1719/TEU, with a bi - weekly increase of 1.7%; US West route was $2218/FEU, with a bi - weekly increase of 1.4% [1]. 2.3 Spot Freight Data - Different carriers' shipping prices from Shanghai to Rotterdam in the short - term European line vary. For example, Maersk's $/40'GP is 2420 and $/20'GP is 1510 [1]. 2.4 Exchange Rate Data - The US dollar index was 99.35, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 6.97 [1]. 3. Capacity Analysis - In January, the weekly average capacity was 30.9 million TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.4%. In February, the weekly average capacity was revised down to 27.1 million TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 17.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.5%. In March, the weekly average capacity was 28.4 million TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% and a month - on - month increase of 5%. The Spring Festival suspension is mainly concentrated from the second half of February to the first week of March. The average capacities before, during, and after the Spring Festival in 2026 were 31.3, 22.1, and 30.7 million TEU/week respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of 2.3%, 3.3%, and 20.4%. The capacity pressure after the festival is relatively greater [12]. 4. Geopolitical Situation - Hamas officials are ready to transfer their responsibilities to the Palestinian technocratic institution. Trump is closely monitoring the situation in Iran and keeping all options open. Maersk's MECL route will resume structural operation at the end of January and has a contingency plan [13]. 5. Demand Analysis - In January, most shipping companies felt that the BCO/NVO cargo volume was good, but the FAK side was average. The peak of cargo volume usually occurs around mid - January and then declines. The Ministry of Finance's tax - refund policy adjustment is expected to boost the overall demand for container shipping (European Line) from January to March and have a negative impact on demand after April [14]. 6. Spot Freight Forecast - It is expected that the average FAK from the 3rd to 4th week will be adjusted down to the range of $2600 - 2670/FEU, which will set the first - phase delivery settlement price of the 2602 contract on January 26 [14]. 7. Strategy Suggestions - For the 2602 contract, the valuation center may fall in the range of 1700 - 1750 points, and it is recommended to wait and see. For the 2604 contract, although there is a marginal benefit of the rush - shipping of photovoltaic and battery products in the first quarter, it cannot reverse the weak supply - demand balance in the off - season from March to April, and it can consider rolling short positions, with the upper pressure level referring to the range of 1200 - 1250 points. For the 2610 contract, hold short positions lightly and short on rallies in the medium - to - long - term, with the upper pressure level referring to the delivery settlement price of 1161 points of the 2510 contract [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Maersk lowered the WEEK5 quotation, and the valuation of the 02 contract is gradually becoming clear. The cargo volume in December and January is at a relatively high level within the year. The final trading day of the EC2602 contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures is February 9, 2026, and its delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of the three - period delivery settlement prices on January 26, February 2, and February 9, 2026. Currently, the valuation of the 02 contract is taking shape, but it will be affected by Maersk's next - week quotation and the price correction of the PA Alliance [7][8]. - The policy of canceling the VAT export tax rebate on photovoltaic and other products may disrupt the off - season characteristics of the 04 contract, and the volatility of the 04 contract is expected to increase in the near future. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the cargo volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can rise significantly and whether the actual freight rate will be stronger than in normal years [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of January 13, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures was 62,795.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 54,738.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1720.40, 1199.70, 1413.50, 1529.90, 1107.40, and 1372.10 respectively [10]. 2. Spot Price - On January 9, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1719 dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price was 2218 dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price was 3128 dollars/FEU. On January 12, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1956.39 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) was 1323.98 points [10]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU were delivered in 2025. From 2026 - 2029, there are clear delivery plans for 12000 - 16999TEU and 17000 + TEU ships. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, while the annual delivery volume of 17000 + TEU ships in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships [4]. - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly capacity in January was 328,400 TEU, and the capacities in WEEK3/4/5 were 318,100/361,000/306,000 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in February was 277,300 TEU, and there were 4 TBNs and 6 blank sailings. The average weekly capacity in March was 281,600 TEU, and there were 4 blank sailings and 5 TBNs [5]. 4. Supply Chain - Maersk will gradually resume east - west shipping through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea [4]. 5. Demand and European Economy - In October 2025, China's photovoltaic module exports to the European market were about 7.55 GW, a decrease of about 31% compared with September and an increase of 8% compared with the same month in 2024. From January to October, the cumulative exports to the European market were about 91 GW, an increase of 8% compared with the previous year. After excluding the Netherlands, France ranked second in terms of single - month imports of photovoltaic modules from China [6].

航运日报 | 2026-01-13 2月合约交割结算价格逐步清晰，关注马士基1月最后一周报 价 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹1月第四周价格1685/2710；HPL 1月上半月报价1635/2635，1月下半月船 期报价1635/2635，2月上半月船期报价1735/2835. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC1月上半月价格1700/2840，1月下半月船期报价1700/2840；ONE 1月下半月船期报价 1680/2635,2月上半月船期报价1680/2635；HMM上海-鹿特丹1月下半月船期报价1733/3036. Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹1月下半月船期报价2309/3693，2月份船期价格2409/3893；EMC1月下半月船 期报价3030-3130美元/FEU；OOCL 1月上半月份船期报价2780-2830美元/FEU。 地缘端：马士基：将继续采取循序渐进的方式，逐步恢复通过苏伊士运河和红海的东西向航道航运。 静态供给：交付现状层面，截至2025年12月31日。2025年至今交付集装箱船舶268艘，合 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The near - month futures market generally follows the spot price trend, with the market opening high and closing low today, while the far - month market remains volatile due to geopolitical conflicts. The subsequent index center is expected to gradually rise [6]. - The shipping demand from December to January is expected to gradually improve, and the supply of shipping capacity has changed slightly. The geopolitical situation may have an impact on fuel costs and the trade pattern, but currently, the impact on shipping routes is limited [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation Market Analysis - On January 7, 2026, EC2602 closed at 1,779.1 points, a - 5% decline from the previous day's closing price. On December 26, the SCFI European line quote was $1,690/TEU, a + 10.24% increase month - on - month. The latest SCFIS European line index released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange on Monday was 1,795.83 points, a + 3% increase month - on - month, slightly lower than expected [6]. - In terms of spot freight rates, MSK has adjusted its prices. Other shipping companies have also set different price ranges for January. The shipping capacity from Shanghai to the five Nordic ports from January to March 2026 is 306,100/271,900/283,300 TEU per week on average, with slight changes at the beginning of the week. The FAL8 route of the OA Alliance will add an 8,500 - TEU ship at the end of January and an empty voyage in February [7]. Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral trading: Consider closing all long positions in EC2602 at high prices and pay attention to the rhythm of the freight rate reaching the peak [8]. - Arbitrage: Wait for opportunities to enter the market at low prices for the 6 - 10 positive spread arbitrage [9]. 2. Industry News - China is considering tightening the export license review of rare earths to Japan, which may have a significant impact on the Japanese economy [10]. - Trump announced that the interim authorities in Venezuela will transfer 30 - 50 million barrels of high - quality, sanctioned crude oil to the United States [10]. - Iran stated that it is ready to respond decisively to any aggression or hostile behavior [11].

期货研究 41 集运指数（欧线）：现货市场博弈性增加，高位震 荡 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 昨日收盘价 日涨跌 昨日成交 昨日持仓 持仓变动 昨日成交/持仓 前日成交/持仓 EC2602 1,801.3 0.52% 21,505 24,130 -3,725 0.89 0.89 EC2604 1,166.0 0.06% 4,507 20,919 -322 0.22 0.34 EC2512 - EC2604 单位 SCFIS：欧洲航线 点 SCFIS：美西航线 点 单位 SCFI：欧洲航线 $/TEU SCFI：美西航线 $/FEU $/40'GP $/20'GP Maersk 37 2610 1625 MSC 47 3140 1880 OOCL 37 3130 1830 EMC 30 3510 2255 CMA 38 3293 1859 ONE 57 2835 2110 HPL 46 3035 1835 HMM 4 ...