Summary of Real Estate Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the real estate market performance in 2025 and outlook for 2026, indicating a trend of stabilization after a period of decline [2][4][14]. Key Points 2025 Market Performance - The overall real estate market showed signs of stabilization in 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 39.2% in transaction amounts for 100 major companies in December, despite a significant year-on-year decline [2]. - Major state-owned enterprises like China Overseas and China Resources reported monthly sales nearing 40 billion, while companies like China Merchants and Greentown exceeded 20 billion, with month-on-month growth over 60% [2]. - The top three companies experienced a year-on-year decline of only 8.99%, significantly lower than the overall market trend [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - New housing supply in key cities increased by 16% month-on-month in December, while the total supply for the year decreased by 9% year-on-year, indicating a persistent supply shortage [5][11]. - The new housing transaction area for 2025 saw a cumulative year-on-year increase of 18%, but the decline rate expanded, reflecting ongoing market adjustments [7]. - The new housing supply-demand ratio was approximately 0.8, indicating a continued supply shortage and ongoing inventory reduction [11]. Performance of Major Cities - Chengdu stood out with a total transaction area of nearly 12 million square meters in 2025, significantly outperforming other cities like Tianjin and Wuhan, which had around 5 million square meters [8]. - First-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen showed strong transaction growth, with Beijing's transaction area increasing by 41% and Shenzhen by 45% in December [5]. Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market achieved a record transaction volume, with a total of 210 million square meters in 30 key cities, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7% [12]. - The second-hand market exhibited a dual-track system with significant price differences compared to new homes, primarily attracting first-time buyers [13]. Future Outlook - The real estate market is expected to continue facing supply constraints in the short term, particularly in core cities like Beijing and Shanghai, which may lead to competitive advantages for companies with available inventory [6]. - The 2026 outlook suggests a potential stabilization in transaction volumes, with prices expected to remain flat, influenced by a mix of improving demand and ongoing supply constraints [18][19]. Policy and Market Predictions - Future policies are anticipated to focus on stabilizing the market without aggressive stimulus measures, emphasizing urban renewal and improving housing quality [17][22]. - The overall market is expected to maintain a steady state, with high-end residential properties stabilizing first, while second-hand homes may continue to see price adjustments [19]. Inventory and Market Structure - Approximately half of the 30 key cities are still facing significant inventory pressure, particularly in peripheral areas, while core regions maintain lower inventory levels due to strong demand for premium properties [21]. - The overall market structure indicates a need for continued inventory reduction, with a focus on improving the quality of available housing [16]. Additional Insights - The land market has seen a decline in transaction amounts, with a 9% year-on-year decrease, and a concentration of land acquisitions in first and second-tier cities [16]. - The overall market dynamics reflect a complex interplay between supply constraints, demand recovery, and ongoing adjustments in pricing strategies across different segments of the real estate market [14][19].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic shift of Beike's subsidiary, Beihome, towards a light-asset model in real estate development, emphasizing the importance of customer-centric approaches and the C2M (Customer-to-Manufacturer) model in adapting to changing market dynamics [3][4][5]. Group 1: Project Performance and Strategy - Beihome's projects, such as Beichen S1 in Chengdu and Beilian C1 in Shanghai, have shown promising results, ranking high in sales despite the challenging market conditions [3][4]. - The Beichen S1 project took 14 months from land acquisition to launch, reflecting a commitment to quality over speed, with a sales price of approximately 60,000 yuan per square meter, close to the cost price [4][5]. - Beihome aims to validate its C2M model through these projects, focusing on long-term brand recognition rather than immediate sales volume [4][5]. Group 2: C2M Model Implementation - Beihome has expanded its C2M services to cover the entire development chain, including product positioning, design, quality control, and marketing, recognizing the need for comprehensive control over the development process [5][6]. - The company emphasizes the importance of data-driven insights to align product offerings with customer preferences, moving from merely selling properties to ensuring quality and customer satisfaction [6][7]. Group 3: Market Adaptation and Customer Insights - The article highlights a shift in the real estate market from quantity to quality, with consumers becoming more discerning about their housing choices [6][8]. - Beihome's research indicates that customer preferences have evolved, with a focus on features like scenic views over traditional design norms, leading to innovative architectural decisions [8][10]. - The company has implemented a "variable housing" concept, allowing for flexible unit configurations to meet diverse customer needs, which has been positively received in their projects [12][13]. Group 4: Future Directions and Partnerships - Beihome plans to maintain its light-asset model, focusing on providing solutions to other developers rather than becoming a traditional developer itself, thus avoiding the pitfalls of heavy capital investment [14][15]. - The company has established partnerships with various leading real estate firms across major cities, enhancing its collaborative approach to project development [15][16]. - Beihome's strategy includes early involvement in project planning to ensure alignment with market demands and customer expectations, thereby reducing uncertainty in the development process [16][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and services sectors [7]. Core Insights - The central government emphasizes the importance of managing expectations in the real estate market, indicating a proactive approach to stabilize the market [2][3]. - The report highlights that while the traditional real estate development model has reached its limits, the sector remains a crucial foundation for the national economy, with significant demand still to be released [4]. - The report suggests that if policies continue to address expectations effectively, it could accelerate market stabilization [5]. Summary by Sections Investment Opportunities - The report recommends investing in "three good" real estate companies, which are characterized by good credit, good cities, and good products, including companies like China Overseas Development and Longfor Group [5]. - It also highlights companies with strong operational capabilities that can manage cash flow during market adjustments, such as New Town Holdings and Longfor Group [5]. - Companies benefiting from the recovery of the Hong Kong market, like Sun Hung Kai Properties, are also recommended [5]. Policy Management - The report stresses the need for maintaining policy strength, effective supply management, and enhancing information and public opinion guidance to stabilize market expectations [3]. - It notes that policies should align with market expectations and be implemented decisively to avoid a situation where the market and policies are in conflict [3]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the real estate market is still adjusting, with significant declines in sales and prices, and mentions the potential for bankruptcies among some companies [2]. - It emphasizes that the real estate sector is closely linked to financial security and household wealth, underscoring its importance in the broader economic context [2]. Company Performance - The report provides detailed performance forecasts for several key companies, adjusting earnings per share (EPS) estimates for various firms based on market conditions and operational performance [12][13][14]. - For instance, Longfor Group's EPS estimates for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 0.52, 0.68, and 1.04 yuan, reflecting a downward revision due to expected profitability challenges in its development business [12]. - China Overseas Development's EPS estimates have been adjusted to 1.39, 1.48, and 1.60 yuan for the same period, indicating a more optimistic outlook based on its strong market position and project pipeline [12].

2026年翩然而至。回顾2025年，房企销售哪家强？ 岁末年初，中指研究院、克而瑞深度咨询·普睿数智研究中心、亿翰智库三大机构分别发布销售额排行榜榜单， 2025年，保利发展蝉联销冠，与中海地产、华润置地、招商蛇口、绿城中国位居前五位，而万科跌出前五。 虽然2025年房企整体业绩延续筑底态势，但可喜的是，部分企业业绩呈现出回暖。据克而瑞深度咨询·普睿数智研 究中心统计，2025年累计业绩同比增长的房企占比为24%，其中同比增幅大于30%的企业数量占到12家。 保利发展蝉联销冠，金茂晋位、万科跌出前五 根据中指研究院和亿翰智库发布的百强房企销售榜单（全口径销售额）显示，保利发展、绿城中国的销售额为 2530亿元和2519亿元，分别位居冠军和亚军。中海地产销售额为2512亿元，华润置地销售额为2336亿元，分别位 居第三位和第四位，招商蛇口以1960亿元的销售额位居第五名。 | 排名 | ग्रह के बाद में बाद में बाद में बाद में बाद में बाद में बाद में बाद में बाद में बाद में कि में बाद में कि को में ब ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6] Core Views - The real estate market in 2025 is expected to remain sluggish, with new home transactions down by 15.8% year-on-year, while second-hand home transactions show a slight increase of 3.9% [11][22] - The report emphasizes that the policy environment is expected to become more stringent, similar to the conditions seen in 2008 and 2014, indicating that the current policy adjustments are still in progress [4] - The report suggests that the real estate sector serves as an early economic indicator, making it a valuable asset class for investment [4] - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies expected to perform better in land acquisition and sales [4] - The report highlights a focus on first-tier and select second-tier cities for investment, as these areas are likely to see better performance during market rebounds [4] Summary by Sections New Home Transactions - In 2025, the cumulative new home transaction volume in 30 sample cities reached 98.217 million square meters, a decrease of 15.8% year-on-year [11] - First-tier cities accounted for 26.191 million square meters, down 12.0%, while second-tier cities saw a decline of 15.6% to 49.040 million square meters [11] - December 2025 saw a significant drop in new home transactions, with a total of 9.679 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 40.0% [2][11] Second-Hand Home Transactions - The total area of second-hand home transactions in 2025 was 103.989 million square meters, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [22] - First-tier cities recorded a total of 43.287 million square meters in second-hand home transactions, up 4.4% year-on-year [22] Market Performance - The report notes that the real estate index decreased by 0.7% this week, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 0.10 percentage points, ranking 19th among 31 sectors [34] - The report identifies a total of 28 stocks that increased in value this week, while 82 stocks experienced declines [34] Credit Bond Issuance - In the week of December 29 to January 4, only one credit bond was issued by real estate companies, totaling 250 million yuan, a decrease of 44.82 million yuan from the previous week [45]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for the real estate sector is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][37] Core Insights - The real estate market is expected to continue its adjustment in 2025, with a projected 6% year-on-year decline in national sales for 2026. The overall transaction volume in 30 key cities is anticipated to decrease by 15% and 13% in terms of units and area, respectively, although the decline is expected to narrow compared to 2024 [4] - The report highlights that second-hand housing transactions are performing better than new housing, with a slight increase of 0.2% in transaction volume for the top ten cities, while new housing transactions are expected to decline by 19% [4] - Positive factors are accumulating, indicating a gradual recovery in the market, including a decrease in down payment ratios and mortgage rates, which are alleviating the financial burden on homebuyers [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy measures to stabilize the real estate market, with expectations for continued supportive policies in 2026 [4] Summary by Sections Market Outlook - The report anticipates a 6% decline in national real estate investment and sales in 2026, with an 8.5% drop in investment and a 6% drop in sales under a neutral scenario [4] - The article published in "Qiushi" discusses the need for sustained policy efforts to promote a healthy and stable real estate market [4] Policy Environment - Recent policy adjustments include a reduction in the value-added tax rate for personal housing sales and the issuance of guidelines for improving housing quality [10] - The report notes that the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has set a goal for significant progress in housing quality improvement by 2030 [4][10] Market Performance - New housing transactions in 50 key cities saw a slight increase of 0.6% week-on-week, while second-hand housing transactions decreased by 33.7% [5][13] - As of January 2, 2026, the inventory of newly built homes in 16 cities decreased by 1.5%, with a de-stocking cycle of 21.1 months [5][16] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines of investment: 1. Real estate companies with low historical burdens and strong product capabilities, such as China Resources Land and China Overseas Development [4] 2. Hong Kong real estate firms benefiting from market stabilization, such as Sun Hung Kai Properties [4] 3. Companies with stable cash flow and dividends, including China Resources Vientiane Life and Poly Property [4]

Core Insights - The real estate industry is experiencing a shift in its competitive landscape, with increased activity in land acquisition and a concentration of leading enterprises, particularly state-owned enterprises [1][2] Group 1: Sales Performance - In 2025, the number of real estate companies in different sales brackets shows a differentiated adjustment, with the number of companies exceeding 100 billion yuan decreasing to 10, with an average sales revenue of 176.55 billion yuan [1] - The second tier of companies (500 billion to 1 trillion yuan) also saw a reduction to 6, with an average sales revenue of 64.64 billion yuan [1] - The third tier (300 billion to 500 billion yuan) experienced a significant reduction, dropping to 7 companies with an average sales revenue of 38.13 billion yuan [1] - The fourth tier (100 billion to 300 billion yuan) remained stable at 50 companies, with an average sales revenue of 18.06 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Land Acquisition Trends - The total land acquisition amount for the top 100 companies reached 964 billion yuan in 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [2] - This growth is attributed to favorable policies aimed at stabilizing the land market and the depletion of existing land reserves, prompting companies to actively replenish their land holdings [2] - The land acquisition trend shows a "high at the beginning and low at the end" pattern, with a significant increase in the first three quarters followed by a decrease in the fourth quarter [2] - State-owned enterprises remain the primary land acquirers, while private companies are also showing increased activity, with several successfully entering the top 30 in land acquisition amounts [2] Group 3: Overlap of Sales and Land Acquisition - Over 30 companies are identified as both top sellers and top land acquirers, indicating strong development capabilities and a healthy "sales-land acquisition" cycle [3] - These companies are primarily state-owned and stable private enterprises, suggesting they are well-positioned to lead in the high-quality development phase of the industry [3]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略月报】 股息率年关盘点 ——多行业联合红利资产 12 月报 策略研究 策略月报 2026 年 01 月 04 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：姚佩 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522120004 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 证券分析师：欧阳予 邮箱：ouyangyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520070001 证券分析师：韩星雨 邮箱：hanxingyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525050001 证券分析师：单戈 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522110001 证券分析师：马野 邮箱：maye@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040003 相关研究报告 《【华创策略】杠杆&ETF 资金分化趋势逆转—— 流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报》 2025-12-01 《【华 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业策略报告 2026 年 01 月 04 日 三个市场关注点和一个自然均衡点 ——房地产行业 2026 年度投资策略 周期/房地产 q 投资建议： 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 258 | 5.0 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 2936.6 | 2.7 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 2781.7 | 2.8 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -1.8 14.2 8.6 相对表现 -4.0 -3.4 -9.1 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Jan/25 Apr/25 Aug/25 Dec/25 (%) 房地产 沪深300 相关报告 房地产角度：关注（1）业绩相对稳健且股息率较高的【华润置地】【华润万 象生活】等；（2）经营动量有积极变化的公司，例如 25 年【滨江集团】【中 国金茂】【建发国际集团】【越秀地产】等曾演绎这一逻辑；（3）公开债务 偿付压力下降且估值较低的【金地集团】【龙湖集团】等；（4）业绩增长及 分红稳定的物企【保利物业】【绿城服务】等；（5）存在机会型布 ...

Core Insights - Despite industry challenges, four real estate companies are expected to exceed 200 billion yuan in sales by 2025, with the top 10 maintaining a threshold of 100 billion yuan [1][2] - The companies achieving over 200 billion yuan in sales include Poly Developments (253 billion yuan), Greentown China (251.9 billion yuan), China Overseas Property (251.2 billion yuan), and China Resources Land (233.6 billion yuan) [1][2] Group 1: Sales Performance - In December 2025, nearly 70% of 105 typical real estate companies reported a month-on-month increase in total sales, with almost 50% experiencing a month-on-month growth rate exceeding 20% [3] - Notable performers include Yuexiu Property, China State Construction, and Renheng Real Estate, with some companies achieving month-on-month sales growth exceeding 100% [3] - China Resources Land and China State Construction reported year-on-year sales growth rates exceeding 15% [3] Group 2: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The real estate sector is expected to continue its adjustment phase in 2026, with debt restructuring accelerating and the completion of housing delivery tasks [1][9] - The market is anticipated to seek a new supply-demand balance, with structural recovery possible while overall prices are expected to remain stable [9] - The importance of community amenities and services is expected to increase, with a focus on green, smart, healthy, and safe products gaining premium pricing [9] Group 3: Company Resilience and Strategy - 53 companies have maintained their position in the top 100 for five consecutive years, with firms like Binjiang Group and Longfor Group demonstrating stable operations while maintaining investment levels [8] - Some struggling private companies, such as Country Garden and Sunac, remain in the top rankings due to prior land reserves that support sales and debt restructuring efforts [8] - Regional private companies are focusing on local high-capacity cities through precise strategies and partnerships to mitigate financial pressures [8]