Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24,028, up 0.57% for the day and 19.78% year-to-date[3] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 0.83% to 8,668, with a year-to-date increase of 18.91%[3] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.29% to 5,217, with a year-to-date increase of 16.75%[3] Capital Flows - Southbound capital recorded a net inflow of HKD 2.902 billion[9] Sector Performance - Major tech stocks generally declined, with Xiaomi, Meituan, Tencent, JD.com, and Baidu all falling, while Alibaba saw a slight increase[9] - Real estate stocks performed strongly, with China Oceanwide Holdings surging over 27% and Longfor Group rising nearly 21% due to debt restructuring progress[9] - Financial stocks also rose, with Zhengzhou Bank and Sunshine Insurance both increasing over 6%[9] U.S. Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.43% to 44,651, while the S&P 500 increased by 0.27% to 6,280, both breaking previous highs[9] - The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.09% to 20,631, marking two consecutive days of record highs[9] Cryptocurrency Trends - Bitcoin surpassed USD 117,000, setting a new record, with cryptocurrency-related stocks also performing well[9] Japanese Market Insights - The Nikkei 225 index fell 0.4% to 39,821, ending a two-day rally due to concerns over U.S.-Japan tariff negotiations and upcoming elections[13] - The 20-year Japanese government bond auction saw lower demand, indicating market concerns over rising debt levels[13]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Technology Index opened lower but rose over 1.5% during the session, with key stocks like Alibaba and semiconductor companies such as Hua Hong Semiconductor and SMIC showing strength [1] - TSMC reported a revenue of NT$263.71 billion for June, a decrease of 17.7% from May but a year-on-year increase of 26.9%. The company's revenue for the first half of the year was NT$1,773.046 billion, up 40.0% year-on-year [1] - TSMC maintained its forecast for a double-digit revenue growth in USD for the year, estimating a growth rate of 24% to 26% [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong technology sector has seen a valuation correction over the past quarter, with the latest valuation of the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) at 19.69 times P/E, which is below 92% of the time since the index was launched [2] - The sector is expected to have significant upside potential if favorable events act as catalysts, given its high growth and elasticity characteristics [2] Group 3 - The semiconductor industry is undergoing a structural transformation driven by geopolitical factors, leading to a decrease in the proportion of externally sourced chips from 63% in 2024 to 42% in 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is experiencing growth, with TI expanding production to meet future demand and storage prices continuing to rise [3][5]. Group 1: Market Overview - In June 2025, the SW semiconductor index rose by 5.96%, underperforming the electronic industry by 2.90 percentage points but outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.46 percentage points [3][11]. - The Philadelphia semiconductor index increased by 16.57%, while the Taiwan semiconductor index rose by 8.15% [3][11]. - Among semiconductor sub-industries, integrated circuit packaging and testing (+9.24%), discrete devices (+8.18%), and semiconductor equipment (+7.05%) had the highest growth rates [3][11]. Group 2: Industry Data Update - Global semiconductor sales in May 2025 reached $58.98 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 19.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.5% [7][26]. - In May, both DRAM and NAND Flash contract prices increased, with DRAM prices rising from $1.65 to $2.10 and NAND Flash prices from $2.79 to $2.92 [28][29]. - The sales of major enterprise SSD brands decreased in the first quarter of 2025, but a recovery is expected in the second quarter [7][28]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The semiconductor heavy holdings in the 1025 fund accounted for 12.0% of the total, reflecting a 0.6 percentage point increase [6][19]. - The top five semiconductor heavy holdings in the 1025 fund saw a decrease in their combined share from 63.8% to 52.8% [19][23]. - The valuation of the SW semiconductor index is at 84.24x PE (TTM), which is at the 64.82% percentile since 2019 [15][19].

Group 1 - Delta Air Lines (DAL.N) surged 11% after reporting Q2 earnings that exceeded expectations and reinstated full-year guidance [1] - American Airlines Group (AAL.O) rose 7.3%, while Southwest Airlines (LUV.N) increased by 3.4% [1] - TSMC (TSM.N) saw a 0.4% increase in stock price, with Q2 sales up 39% year-over-year [1] Group 2 - MP Materials, a rare earth producer, experienced a nearly 60% surge in stock price following a multi-billion dollar contract with the U.S. Department of Defense [1]

Market Overview - The main board saw significant gains with Huamai Holdings up by 10.09%, Huanrui Century by 10.06%, and Jingyida by 10.02% [1] - The ChiNext board led the gains with Pulian Software increasing by 20.00% and Changxin Bochuang by 15.07% [1] - The Sci-Tech Innovation board also saw increases, with Lexin Technology up by 5.77% [1] - Active sub-industries included SW Panel with a rise of 1.04% and SW Portal Websites by 0.77% [1] Domestic News - TSMC reported a June sales figure of NT$263.71 billion, a decrease of 17.7% month-on-month but an increase of 26.9% year-on-year, with a cumulative sales figure of NT$1,773.046 billion for the first half of the year, up 40.0% year-on-year [1] - United Microelectronics Corporation's advanced packaging interposer has been validated by Qualcomm and is expected to enter mass production in Q1 2026 [1] - Upwind New Materials announced a control acquisition of at least 63.62% of shares in Zhiyuan Robotics for approximately RMB 2.1 billion, making it the first intelligent listed company in A-shares [1] - STMicroelectronics launched a new 3MP automotive-grade CMOS image sensor, SC326AT, featuring significant optimizations in sensitivity, noise suppression, and power control [1] Company Announcements - Dinglong Co. expects a net profit of RMB 290 million to 320 million for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.12% to 46.9% [3] - Shenzhen Textile A anticipates a net profit of RMB 28 million to 42 million for H1 2025, a decrease of 4.31% to 36.20% year-on-year [3] - Heertai forecasts a net profit of RMB 326.67 million to 366.27 million for H1 2025, a growth of 65% to 85% year-on-year [3] - Quectel expects revenue of RMB 11.45 billion for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 38.81%, with a net profit of RMB 463 million, up 121.13% year-on-year [3] International News - Murata Manufacturing is ramping up production of its first high-frequency filter using XBAR technology, crucial for 5G and emerging wireless technologies [2] - India's first semiconductor chip manufacturing plant has commenced operations in Gujarat, with production expected to start by December 2026 [2] - NEXTIN, a South Korean testing equipment company, is expanding into the next-generation display sector with orders for OLEDoS testing equipment from major Chinese firms [2] - IDC reported a 6.5% year-on-year increase in global PC shipments in Q2, reaching 68.4 million units, with Apple and Asus showing the largest growth [2]

Group 1 - Dow Jones futures fell by 0.17%, S&P 500 futures decreased by 0.11%, and Nasdaq futures dropped by 0.07% [1] - TSMC reported a 39% revenue growth in Q2, exceeding expectations, leading to a 1.02% increase in its stock price [1] - Amazon is considering a multi-billion dollar investment in AI startup Anthropic to strengthen their strategic partnership, following an earlier investment of $8 billion [1] - Morgan Stanley predicts that Alibaba's investment in food delivery and flash sales will reach approximately 10 billion RMB, impacting short-term profits, with expectations for the second quarter to double to 20 billion RMB [1] Group 2 - Elon Musk announced that Tesla plans to expand its Robotaxi service to the San Francisco Bay Area within one to two months, pending regulatory approval, resulting in a 0.7% increase in Tesla's stock [2] - Nvidia's market capitalization briefly surpassed $4 trillion, becoming the first publicly traded company to reach this milestone, driven by surging demand for AI technology [2] - Oracle announced a partnership with DayOne to launch its first cloud service center in Indonesia, leading to a nearly 2% increase in Oracle's stock [2] Group 3 - Multiple institutions raised their target prices for McDonald's, with Goldman Sachs increasing its target from $325 to $345, and Citigroup maintaining a "buy" rating while raising its target from $364 to $365 [3] - Reports indicate that Ferrero is close to acquiring WK Kellogg for $3 billion, with WK Kellogg's stock surging by 51.43% [3]

Core Viewpoint - ASML is set to announce its Q2 financial results on July 16, with significant order expectations creating uncertainty in stock performance. Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price of €970 (approximately $1,137.71) [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Order Expectations - The market sentiment towards ASML's stock is bearish, with concerns over order uncertainty impacting short-term outlooks. However, Morgan Stanley believes mid-term risks are low due to a projected 7.7% revenue growth in 2026 compared to 2025 [1] - Current consensus for orders stands at €4.8 billion, reflecting a 22% increase from Q1, but the sustainability of this growth is contingent on TSMC receiving 2026 orders in the current quarter [1][2] - If TSMC receives all its 2026 orders in Q2, ASML is likely to exceed order expectations, as over 50% of TSMC's 2026 EUV orders are still pending [1] Group 2: Q2 Performance Expectations - Morgan Stanley forecasts ASML's Q2 revenue at €7.433 billion, a 4.0% decline quarter-over-quarter but a 19.1% increase year-over-year, slightly below market expectations [3] - The anticipated order amount for Q2 is €4.19 billion, which is 12.6% lower than market expectations, reflecting a conservative view on order predictability [3] - The estimated gross margin is 51.5%, aligning with market expectations, while EBIT is projected at €2.325 billion with a profit margin of 31.3%, slightly below market forecasts [3] - Earnings per share are expected to be €5.11, which is 2.7% lower than market expectations, and ASML is likely to narrow its 2025 revenue guidance to a midpoint of €30 billion to €35 billion [3]

| | | | | | | | | (UNICIA I 2 Willion | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Period | June | May | M-o-M | | Y-o-Y Increase | January to | January to | Y-o-Y | | | 2025 | 2025 | Increase (Decrease) | June 2024 | (Decrease) | June | June | Increase (Decrease) | | | | | % | | 96 | 2025 | 2024 | 0% | | Net Revenue | 263,709 | 320,516 | (17.7) | 207,869 | 26.9 | 1,773,046 | 1,266,154 | 40.0 | 台积电(TSM.N)：6月份营收2637.1亿新台币，环比下降17.7%，同比增长26.9％。 ...

最新公布的美联储6月会议纪要显示，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）成员在上次会议上同意将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.5%之间。与会者一致认为， 尽管净出口波动影响了数据，但近期指标表明经济活动继续稳步扩张。失业率保持在低位，劳动力市场状况依然稳健，通胀率仍然略高。与会者一致认为，经济前 景的不确定性有所减弱但仍然居高不下。 在考虑货币政策前景时，与会者普遍认为，由于经济增长和劳动力市场仍然稳健，而当前的货币政策或有适度的限制性，委员会完全有能力等待通胀和经济活动前 景更加明朗。 当地时间7月9日，美股三大指数收高，标普500指数连续两个交易日下跌后反弹。英伟达盘中突破4万亿美元大关。 美联储会议纪要显示内部分裂为三大阵营。 美国总统唐纳德· 特朗普威胁大幅提高进口铜和药品关税后，投资者密切关注贸易局势最新动向。 道指涨217.54点，涨幅为0.49%，报44458.30点；纳指涨192.88点，涨幅为0.94%，报20611.34点；标普500指数涨37.74点，涨幅为0.61%，报6263.26点。 纳指一度上涨至20645.41点，创盘中历史新高。 美联储会议纪要反映出对未来通胀路径存在内部分 ...

美股大型科技股全线走强，英伟达大涨超2%，股价再度创出历史新高，总市值达到4万亿美元，成为首家市值 达到4万亿美元的公司，超过了英、法、德等国家的股票总市值。英伟达最新股价较4月低点已累计上涨超 89%。 Loop Capital分析师Ananda Baruah日前将英伟达目标价从175美元上调至250美元，这一水平相当于约6万亿美元 的市值。 英伟达再度创造历史。 北京时间7月9日晚间，美股三大指数集体走强，英伟达大涨超2%，总市值盘中一度超过4万亿美元，成为首家 市值达到4万亿美元的公司。 欧洲股市全线大涨，欧洲斯托克50指数、德国DAX30指数、法国CAC40指数均涨超1%。其中，德国DAX30指 数创出历史新高。有分析称，尽管美国总统特朗普此前宣布了新一轮关税威胁，但投资者反应平静，市场似乎 正在淡化关税政策的扰动。投资者认为特朗普政府未必会落实最严厉的关税威胁。 今晚投资者关注的另一个焦点是美联储将于北京时间周四凌晨发布的会议纪要。目前市场对美联储降息预期正 在升温，高盛预计，美联储可能会在9月降息，较其此前预测的时间提前了三个月。花旗认为，即将公布的会 议纪要将释放比预期更为"鸽派"的信号，降息" ...