↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 深夜，美股回调，阿里巴巴却带领中国资产大涨，其中阿里巴巴股价大涨近13%， 一夜之间，阿里巴巴市值上涨369亿美元，约合人民币2628亿 元。 盘面上大型科技股多数下跌，拖累了整体走势。个股方面，特斯拉跌超3%，英伟达跌逾3%，Meta跌超1%，亚马逊跌逾1%，微软跌0.58%，苹 果跌0.18%，谷歌涨0.6%。 芯片股同样普遍下跌，费城半导体指数大跌3.15%。个股方面，迈威尔科技跌超18%，博通、超威半导体、台积电等跌超3%。 01 美股三大指数收跌 大型科技股多数下跌 当地时间周五，美股三大股指全线收跌，道指跌0.2%报45544点，标普500指数跌0.64%报6460点，纳指跌1.15%报21455点。 其中，迈威尔科技在最新披露的财报中给出的业绩指引不及市场预期，引发了投资者对其未来业绩增长放缓的担忧。财报显示，该公司预计第三季 度的营收为20.6亿美元，低于分析师一致预期。 | 迈威尔科技 | | | --- | --- | | MRVL 已收盘08-29 16:00:00 美东 | | | 62.86 -14.36 -18.60% | 1.59万人加自选 ...

Market Performance - On August 29, U.S. stock indices collectively declined, with the Dow Jones down 0.20%, S&P 500 down 0.64%, and Nasdaq down 1.15% [1][2] - The Nasdaq 100 futures and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index showed contrasting performances, with the latter rising by 1.55% [2][8] Technology Sector - Major tech stocks experienced significant declines, with Nvidia's stock dropping over 3%, resulting in a market cap loss exceeding $140 billion, equivalent to over 10 billion RMB [2][4] - The Wind data indicated that the "Magnificent Seven" index, which includes major tech companies, fell by 1.31%, with Tesla and Nvidia both dropping more than 3% [3][4] Nvidia's Financial Results - Nvidia's recent financial report for Q2 of fiscal year 2026 showed substantial revenue and net profit growth compared to the previous year, but data center revenue of $41.1 billion fell short of market expectations [6][7] Chinese Stocks - Alibaba's stock surged nearly 13% following its strong financial results, reporting a revenue of 247.65 billion RMB for Q1 of fiscal year 2026, a 2% year-on-year increase, and a net profit increase of 76% to 42.38 billion RMB [10][8] Commodity Market - International precious metal prices increased, with gold futures reaching $3,516.1 per ounce, while oil prices declined, with NYMEX crude oil futures down 0.91% [12][13] - Analysts predict a strong short-term outlook for gold prices due to ongoing market conditions and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, while the medium-term outlook for oil remains bearish [13]

Core Viewpoint - The significant drop in Marvell Technology's stock price is attributed to disappointing earnings guidance, leading to a broader sell-off in the semiconductor sector [2][3]. Financial Performance - Marvell Technology expects third-quarter revenue of $2.06 billion, below the market expectation of $2.12 billion, with no growth anticipated in the data center business [3]. - The company reported second-quarter revenue of $2.01 billion, a 58% year-over-year increase, meeting analyst expectations, with data center revenue contributing $1.49 billion, a 69% year-over-year increase [3]. - Adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter were $0.67, in line with analyst expectations [3]. Market Reaction - Following the earnings report, Marvell's stock price fell nearly 19% intraday, closing down 18.6% at $62.87, marking a three-month low and reducing its market capitalization to $54.2 billion (approximately 386.4 billion RMB) [2]. - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped over 3%, with major companies like NVIDIA, Broadcom, and AMD also experiencing declines of over 3% [2]. Analyst Insights - Analysts attribute the volatility in Marvell's stock price to previously high expectations for AI chip stocks, which left little room for error in earnings reports [2][6]. - Morgan Stanley analysts expressed surprise at the ongoing decline in ASIC (Application-Specific Integrated Circuit) revenue, while also noting the strength of Marvell's optical solutions for data center applications [6][7]. - Summit Insights analysts highlighted Marvell's lack of scale compared to larger competitors, which may pressure profit margins due to multi-vendor procurement strategies from major clients [6]. Strategic Moves - Marvell's CEO, Matt Murphy, indicated that the company's custom chip business growth is expected to be "non-linear," with a stronger performance anticipated in the fourth quarter [3][4]. - The recent divestiture of the automotive Ethernet business is part of Marvell's strategy to focus on data center opportunities and enhance flexibility for stock buybacks [7][8]. - Marvell's data center segment currently accounts for three-quarters of total revenue, and the company plans to consolidate non-data center markets into a single reporting segment starting in the third quarter [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant stock price drop of Marvell Technology, driven by disappointing earnings guidance and concerns over future growth in the AI chip market [1][5][6]. Financial Performance - Marvell Technology reported Q2 revenue of $2.01 billion, a 58% year-over-year increase, meeting analyst expectations [6]. - The company expects Q3 revenue to be $2.06 billion, below the market expectation of $2.12 billion, raising concerns about growth slowdown [5][6]. - The gross margin is projected to be between 51.5% and 52%, showing a sequential improvement [5]. Market Reaction - Following the earnings report, Marvell's stock price fell nearly 19% intraday, closing down 18.6% at $62.87, marking a three-month low and reducing its market capitalization to approximately $54.2 billion (about 386.4 billion RMB) [3][6]. - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped over 3%, with major companies like NVIDIA, Broadcom, and AMD also experiencing declines of more than 3% [1]. Analyst Insights - Analysts attribute the volatility in Marvell's stock price to previously high expectations for AI chip stocks, which left little room for error in earnings reports [8]. - Morgan Stanley analysts expressed surprise at the anticipated decline in ASIC revenue for the year, while also noting the strength of Marvell's optical solutions for data centers [9]. - Summit Insights analysts highlighted Marvell's lack of scale compared to larger competitors, which may pressure profit margins due to multi-vendor procurement strategies from major clients [8]. Strategic Moves - Marvell's CEO, Matt Murphy, indicated that the growth of the custom chip business is expected to be "non-linear," with potential for significant improvement in Q4 [6]. - The company recently divested its automotive Ethernet business to focus more on data center opportunities, which currently account for three-quarters of total revenue [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for companies benefiting from the AI supply chain, specifically for 中际旭创 (300308 CH) and 生益科技 (600183 CH) [2][4]. Core Insights - AI infrastructure investment continues to grow, with NVIDIA's strong performance indicating sustained demand. NVIDIA's revenue for Q2 FY26 reached $46.7 billion, a 56% year-over-year increase and a 6% quarter-over-quarter increase, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates [2][4]. - The management expects Q3 revenue to be $54 billion, indicating a 16% quarter-over-quarter growth, which is significantly higher than previous quarters [2][4]. - The report highlights the robust growth in NVIDIA's data center revenue, which increased by 17% quarter-over-quarter, driven by high sales of Blackwell chips and strong network business growth [4]. Summary by Sections NVIDIA Performance - NVIDIA's Q2 FY26 revenue was $46.7 billion, with a Non-GAAP gross margin of 72.7%, expected to rise to around 75% by year-end [2][4]. - The net profit for Q2 was $25.8 billion, reflecting a 52% year-over-year increase and a 30% quarter-over-quarter increase [2][4]. Market Outlook - Management anticipates that the capital expenditure of the four major cloud providers will reach $600 billion by 2025, with market opportunities potentially expanding to $3-4 trillion by 2030 [4]. - The report emphasizes the improving return on investment for AI infrastructure, with GB200's ROI projected to be 10 times [4]. Geopolitical Considerations - NVIDIA's sales outlook in China remains uncertain due to geopolitical tensions, with potential revenue from H20 products estimated between $2 billion to $5 billion if conditions improve [4].

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor wafer fabrication capacity is expected to grow from 31.5 million wafers per month in 2024 to 33.7 million wafers per month in 2025, driven by increasing chip demand, particularly from the AI and automotive electronics sectors [1][4] Group 1: Wafer Foundry Overview - Wafer foundry refers to the manufacturing of semiconductor wafers on behalf of integrated circuit design companies without engaging in design itself, playing a crucial role in the semiconductor industry [1] - The wafer foundry industry consists of upstream semiconductor materials, equipment, and design services, midstream wafer processing services, and downstream packaging/testing services, as well as end-use applications in consumer electronics, semiconductors, photovoltaic cells, and industrial electronics [1] Group 2: Manufacturing Processes - Wafer manufacturing processes can be categorized into advanced logic processes and specialty processes, with advanced processes defined as those below 14nm and mature processes as those 28nm and above [2] - The investment required for equipment significantly increases with process node evolution, with specialty processes requiring around $2-3 billion for every 50,000 wafers of capacity, while advanced processes require at least $4 billion [2] Group 3: Industry Advantages and Challenges - The wafer foundry industry currently benefits from a clear trend towards domestic production and sustained market demand [3] - Challenges include geopolitical instability, significant first-mover advantages for leading companies, reliance on key materials, and yield issues [3] Group 4: Market Status - The semiconductor industry is currently in a favorable economic cycle, with global semiconductor sales expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9% from 2025 to 2030, surpassing $1 trillion by 2030 [4] - TSMC dominates the wafer foundry market with a 60% market share, while China is expected to lead in mature processes by 2027, with Taiwan maintaining dominance in advanced processes [4] Group 5: Key Domestic Players - Major domestic players include SMIC, Changhong Semiconductor, Jingxin Integrated Circuit, and Chipone Integrated Circuit, with SMIC being a leading global integrated circuit wafer foundry [5] - Huahong Semiconductor is recognized for its comprehensive specialty process platform, while Jingxin Integrated Circuit leads in the LCD panel driver chip foundry market [5] - Chipone Integrated Circuit focuses on power devices, MEMS, BCD, and MCU technology platforms, with AI being a new growth area [5] Group 6: Technology Development Trends - Global capacity is expanding, with market share concentrating among leading firms, and advanced processes like 3/2nm dominating the high-end market [6] - The collaboration between packaging and process technology is evolving, with 2nm processes expected to utilize GAAFET architecture, driven by increasing HPC demand due to AI advancements [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of the semiconductor industry, with Cambrian Technology's stock price surging by 7% to 1469.99 CNY per share, surpassing Moutai's 1448 CNY, thus becoming the "king of stocks" [1] - Guosen Securities notes that TSMC has raised its annual revenue growth forecast from 25% to 30%, indicating sustained high prosperity in the semiconductor sector [1] - The North American computing power surge has driven the switch and server supply chain to become a major sentiment booster, with global silicon wafer shipment area in Q2 2025 showing a significant increase, marking a new high since Q3 2023 [1] Group 2 - Demand for AI data center chips remains strong, with a recovery observed in sectors outside of storage, and prices for niche storage products are gradually rebounding [1] - Major overseas tech companies are increasing their capital expenditures, reflecting continued enthusiasm for AI computing investments [1] - The Guotai ETF (589100), which tracks the semiconductor index (000685), can experience daily fluctuations of up to 20%, focusing on semiconductor and electronic companies listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [1]

英伟达(NVDA.US)最新指引显示出，两年的高速增长之后将出现放缓趋势，"AI信仰"受挫了? 全球市值最高的上市公司英伟达公司对当前财季的营收预测表现平平，这表明在人工智能领域投资经历 两年惊人增长之后，其增长速度正在放缓。该公司周三在一份声明中表示，本财年第三季度(截至 10 月)的销售额约为 540 亿美元。这一数字与华尔街的平均预期相符，但一些分析师此前预计的销售额会 超过 600 亿美元。该预测未包含来自中国的数据中心业务收入，即目前提供的指引不考虑任何对华H20 销售收入。 这一前景加剧了人们对人工智能系统投资速度不可持续的担忧。在中国市场方面遇到的困难也给英伟达 的业务带来了影响。尽管特朗普政府最近放宽了对某些人工智能芯片向中国出口的限制，但这一缓和措 施尚未转化为收入的回升。 智通财经APP了解到，该公司还批准了额外的 600 亿美元股票回购计划。截至第二季度末，英伟达此前 的回购计划下仍有 147 亿美元的剩余资金可用。 在截至 7 月 27 日的这一时期内，销售额增长了 56%，达到 467 亿美元，而平均预期为 462 亿美元。尽 管这一增长使季度营收较上年同期增加了超过 160 亿美元 ...

Core Insights - The technology industry is accelerating supply chain diversification in response to changing U.S. tariff policies [1] - There are two main trends: server production is shifting to the U.S. and Mexico, while smartphone and PC manufacturing remains concentrated in Asia to control costs [1] - The U.S. market for servers, smartphones, and PCs is projected to generate $565 billion in 2024, accounting for over half of the tech hardware revenue [1] Group 1 - Server production has been migrating since 2018, with a focus on U.S. and Mexican manufacturing for products aimed at the U.S. market [1] - Major Taiwanese ODMs, including Foxconn, Quanta, Wistron, and Inventec, have established production bases in the U.S. to meet customer demands and mitigate tariff pressures [1] - TSMC's expansion of advanced chip production in Arizona further reinforces this trend towards localized manufacturing [1] Group 2 - AI servers are strategically positioned to largely avoid the impact of U.S. tariffs, with many manufacturers establishing cross-regional operational networks [1] - Components and subsystems are primarily produced in Asia, with final assembly occurring in Taiwan or Mexico, the latter benefiting from tariff exemptions under the USMCA [1] - The preference for U.S. assembly is growing due to simplified assembly processes and enhanced customer support efficiency, particularly for high-priced AI servers [2]

李四川昨日接受广播节目专访时表示，北市府已将T17、T18标给新光人寿，地上权在新光人寿手上， 因此近两、三个月来，北市府每周几乎都与英伟达视讯讨论进度、以及英伟达与新寿协商情况。 站在市政府立场，李四川强调，因为原来新寿标下的T17、T18是两块土地，如果按照他们的设计，可 能必须合并道路，建蔽率也许要稍微放宽，这部分会由市府协调由都委会来协助，"市府绝对会全力来 帮忙"。 李四川说，现在最简单的方式，就是新寿原则上按照契约，出钱把英伟达要的"飞碟屋"总部盖起来，但 设计与施工厂商这部分，新寿应正在与英伟达研讨。 为了英伟达台湾总部北士科用地，新光人寿、英伟达、台北市政府间的三角习题未解。台北市政府副市 长李四川昨（27）日表示，目前应会朝新寿依地上权契约兴建方向进行，9月底前会有决定。他透露， 英伟达执行长黄仁勋希望明年5月来台时就能开工，推估三年多可完工。 市府原本期待新寿可以解约，市府也报内政部，内政部准许北市府订定办法直接转给英伟达，但看起来 新寿不愿意放手，后续将依照北市府与新寿签订的契约进行，也就是出钱盖好、取得使用执照之后再转 移给英伟达。 英伟达锁定北投士林科技园区T17、T18土地兴建台湾 ...