北京市优化调整住房限购政策，《求是》强调地产政策不能采取添油战术 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 报告摘要 周期品方向：反内卷仍是主线。对于水泥及玻璃行业而言，在需求下行的背景下，供给能否有效去化是下 一阶段观察的重点。目前水泥和浮法玻璃的行业平均盈利均已跌落至盈亏平衡线之下，供给端博弈是淡季 的主线。其中，Q1通常是玻璃产能冷修的高峰，冷修减产的幅度将直接决定3-4月份浮法玻璃价格修复的 空间。玻纤板块盈利相对较好，需求端依旧稳步增长，26H1下游如风电等场景对粗纱需求有支撑，而新供 给投放主要在26H2，判断有阶段性提价的可能性。新领域方向：1）电子布。AI供应链的高景气仍是26H1 最有确定性的方向。特种电子布（LowDK一代二代、石英布）需求弹性较大，且短期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Beijing optimized and adjusted housing purchase restriction policies, and "Qiushi" emphasized that real - estate policies should not adopt a piecemeal approach. The continuous introduction of real - estate policies further supports demand, and the pace of subsequent policy introduction may accelerate. Although the new construction of the real - estate chain still faces multiple pressures, the industry bottom is approaching as the base gradually decreases. Sales data (new + second - hand houses) remains the leading indicator for driving the sector's valuation [3][7]. - Anti - involution is the main line for cyclical products. In the new field, attention should be paid to electronic cloth, clean rooms, and commercial aerospace. For the cement and glass industries, the effective reduction of supply is the key point to observe in the next stage. The glass fiber sector has relatively good profitability, and there is a possibility of a staged price increase. In the new field, the high - growth of the AI supply chain in 26H1 is the most certain direction, and the semiconductor/storage capital expenditure at home and abroad drives the performance and valuation of the clean - room sector. The theme investment in commercial aerospace is constantly catalyzed [4][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Anti - involution is the Main Line for Cyclical Products, and Attention is Paid to Electronic Cloth, Clean Rooms, and Commercial Aerospace in the New Field - **Real - estate Policy**: On December 24, 2025, Beijing optimized real - estate policies, including relaxing the conditions for non - Beijing households to purchase houses, supporting the housing needs of multi - child families, optimizing personal housing credit policies, and adjusting the project approval method for real - estate development. On January 1, 2026, "Qiushi" proposed that policies should be sufficient at one time to avoid a game between the market and policies [3][7]. - **Cyclical Products**: For the cement and glass industries, with demand declining, the effective reduction of supply is crucial. Currently, the average profitability of the cement and float glass industries has fallen below the break - even line. The cold - repair reduction of glass production capacity in Q1 will determine the price recovery space of float glass from March to April. The glass fiber sector has relatively good profitability, with stable demand growth and potential for staged price increases [4][8]. - **New Fields**: The high - growth of the AI supply chain in 26H1 is the most certain direction. Special electronic cloth has high demand elasticity and limited short - term supply, so its price is elastic. The increasing semiconductor/storage capital expenditure at home and abroad drives the performance and valuation of the clean - room sector. The theme investment in commercial aerospace is constantly catalyzed [4][8]. 3.2 Profit Forecast and Valuation of Main Covered Companies The report provides the profit forecast, valuation, and investment ratings of 28 companies from 2024 to 2027, including Punaite, China Jushi, and Conch Cement. Most of the investment ratings are "Buy" or "Increase", and all ratings remain unchanged [10]. 3.3 Weekly Market Review - **Industry Index**: The construction index, building materials index, etc. had different changes. The construction index decreased by 1.4%, and the building materials index decreased by 0.6% [13]. - **Sub - sectors of Construction**: The building decoration II index increased by 9.33%, and the garden engineering index increased by 1.92%, while some sub - sectors had negative growth [15]. - **Infrastructure Public REITs**: The report provides the weekly, monthly, and annual - to - date price changes of 70 infrastructure public REITs. The average weekly decline was 0.47%, and the average annual - to - date increase was 9.29% [23][24][25]. 3.4 Aggregate Data Tracking - **Real - estate Data**: It includes the cumulative year - on - year changes in real - estate new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas, land transaction data, real - estate transaction data, social financing data, and infrastructure investment growth rates [28][37][47]. - **New Contracts of Eight Major Construction Central Enterprises**: The report shows the quarterly new contract amounts and year - on - year growth rates of eight major construction central enterprises from 2022Q1 to 2025Q3 [73]. - **Special Bond Issuance**: It shows the monthly and cumulative issuance amounts of new and replacement special bonds from 2022 to 2025 [75][77]. 3.5 High - frequency Data Tracking - **Building Materials Data**: It includes the price trends, cost - profit differences, inventory, and other data of cement, float glass, photovoltaic glass, glass fiber, carbon fiber, magnesium sand, alumina, and other building materials [83][90][98]. - **Upstream Raw Material Prices**: It shows the price trends of asphalt, waste paper, PVC, HDPE, etc. [137][138]. - **Physical Workload Data**: It includes the price trends of acrylic acid, titanium dioxide, and the rental rate of high - altitude machines, asphalt average start - up rate, etc. [144][147].

告别经验主义： 在人类算力的极限之外，重建供应链秩序。 在某个普通的早上，南宁某仓的调度大屏跳出来自八个区域仓的300多条配送请求—— 有医院的急救类补货、夜间药店的销量回补、B2B渠道的大批量集采订单，以及由季节性疾病高发触发的突发需求，也有必须关乎生命的、要在两小时送 达ICU的药品需求，每一条请求背后都对应着不同的时效要求、药品合规要求和路线约束。 另一边，仓内的拣货员已经开始处理医院端的大单：一个订单可能包含80种以上的品规，既有高价值药，也有一旦超温就要整批报废的冷链品类。这些药 必须从不同区域的货架拣取，经过核对批次、效期、规格，再以合规方式打包。如果流程中断或错拣，订单需要整单复核。 过去，调度员需要在路线、车型、载重和时效之间来回推演。一遇到跨仓调拨或需求波动——比如某区域突然感冒高发，导致当地仓库缺货——所有路线 都必须重新排。因此，一个人要处理上万SKU与各仓之间的动态关系，往往一排车就要一小时以上。 这是广西柳药集团的日常缩影。 这家区域龙头医药流通企业成立于上世纪50年代，是广西最早的国有医药公司之一。经过数十年的区域扩张与品类延展，柳药已从传统医药流通企业，成 长为覆盖医院、连锁药店 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the transformation of the pharmaceutical supply chain through AI integration, emphasizing the shift from traditional experience-based methods to data-driven, intelligent decision-making systems [2][11][36]. Group 1: Company Overview - Liuyao Group, established in the 1950s, has evolved from a traditional pharmaceutical distributor to a comprehensive health service group, covering hospitals, retail pharmacies, and B2B clients [2]. - The complexity of Liuyao's supply chain is amplified by the need to manage over ten thousand SKUs, multiple warehouses, and stringent compliance and time constraints [2][4]. Group 2: Supply Chain Challenges - Liuyao faces a "triple constraint" in its supply chain, balancing time, compliance, and cost, where improving one aspect can exacerbate the others [4][5]. - The pharmaceutical industry is under pressure to enhance efficiency and reduce costs due to increasing regulatory demands and market competition [7][10]. Group 3: AI Integration and Transformation - Liuyao has partnered with Huawei Cloud to leverage AI for restructuring its supply chain decision-making processes, focusing on data governance, demand forecasting, and intelligent scheduling [2][11]. - The implementation of a data lake has unified fragmented data, enabling real-time visibility and optimization of supply chain operations [15][21]. Group 4: AI Tools and Their Impact - The Pangu predictive model has improved demand forecasting accuracy to over 89%, directly impacting inventory management and reducing stockout risks [16][21]. - The Tianchou AI solver optimizes complex decision-making scenarios, significantly reducing decision-making time and lowering costs by approximately 20% [21][20]. Group 5: Industry Trends and Future Directions - The article notes a global trend where over 50% of large multinational companies are expected to adopt AI and advanced analytics for supply chain management by 2027 [8]. - In China, over 60% of large enterprises are projected to implement AI and intelligent scheduling systems in their supply chains within the next three years, driven by national policies promoting digital transformation [10][11]. Group 6: Conclusion on Supply Chain Evolution - The shift from experience-based systems to computational systems in supply chains is seen as a critical evolution, enabling companies to predict demand, optimize resources, and enhance operational efficiency [26][36]. - Liuyao's experience serves as a model for the industry, demonstrating that intelligent supply chains can become a new growth engine rather than merely a cost center [36].

Core Insights - Recently, Cainiao and Mixue Group have reached a technology cooperation agreement, where Cainiao will develop a supply chain management system for Mixue Group, focusing on sales forecasting and integrating intelligent replenishment and raw material supply chain management [1] Group 1: Supply Chain Management - The new system aims to transition Mixue Group's supply chain management from experience-driven to AI-driven, addressing the complexities of raw material procurement, storage, and transportation [1] - Mixue Group's product offerings, including popular items like fresh lemon water and fresh orange juice, involve short shelf-life products, increasing the difficulty of supply chain management [1] Group 2: Market Challenges - With intensifying market competition, ensuring product supply during frequent promotional activities has become a new challenge for chain enterprises in supply chain management [1] - The AI supply chain product provided by Cainiao will utilize AI to predict sales and intelligently generate replenishment plans, enhancing the efficiency of procurement, warehousing, and transportation [1] Group 3: Operational Efficiency - The new system is designed to support Mixue Group's rapid business growth, helping to avoid raw material waste and ineffective capital occupation while maintaining cost control [1]

Core Insights - The collaboration between Cainiao and Mixue Group focuses on developing an AI-driven supply chain management system that enhances sales forecasting and inventory replenishment efficiency [1] - Mixue Group operates over 50,000 stores across 13 countries, with brands including Mixue Ice City and Lucky Coffee, facing challenges in managing complex supply chains for perishable products [1] - The new AI supply chain product aims to streamline procurement, warehousing, and logistics, addressing the challenges posed by increased promotional activities and market competition [1] Group 1 - Cainiao will create a supply chain management system for Mixue Group that integrates sales forecasting and full-link supply of raw materials [1] - The AI system will improve supply chain efficiency and cost control while supporting Mixue Group's rapid business growth [1] - Unlike many supply chain technology companies, Cainiao has extensive supply chain operations and practical experience, ensuring a tailored solution for Mixue Group [1] Group 2 - Cainiao is expanding its digital and automated research and development efforts, investing in overseas markets with local logistics technology teams in regions such as the Americas, Asia-Pacific, Middle East, and Europe [2] - The logistics technology products of Cainiao have been implemented in 27 countries and regions globally, with over 800 collaborative projects [2]

数据来源：中证指数公司，沪深交易所。 注："全市场首只"是指首只跟踪中证港股通信息技术综合指数的ETF。中证港股通信息技术综合指数设置单个样本权重上限为15%，伴随个股市值波动权重 占比会产生相应变化，可能会出现超过15%的情形。指数样本每半年调整一次，届时单个样本权重上限一般会平衡至15%。近期市场波动可能较大，短期涨 跌幅不预示未来表现。请投资者务必根据自身的资金状况和风险承受能力理性投资，高度注意仓位和风险管理。 风险提示：港股通信息技术ETF被动跟踪中证港股通信息技术综合指数，该指数基日为2014.11.14，发布于2017.6.23。材料中指数成份股仅作展示，个股描 述不作为任何形式的投资建议，也不代表管理人旗下任何基金的持仓信息和交易动向。本产品由华宝基金发行与管理，代销机构不承担产品的投资、兑付和 风险管理责任。投资人应当认真阅读《基金合同》、《招募说明书》、《基金产品资料概要》等基金法律文件，了解基金的风险收益特征，选择与自身风险 承受能力相适应的产品。基金过往业绩并不预示其未来表现，基金管理人管理的其他基金的业绩并不构成基金业绩表现的保证，基金投资须谨慎！基金管理 人评估的该基金风险等级为R ...

记者丨 覃毅 编辑丨鄢子为 深圳装备大佬高云峰，再度叩响港交所大门。 12月上旬，他实控的大族数控，提交新招股书，并委任中金公司为独家保荐人。 这家印制电路板（PCB）装备巨头，南下募资，用于研发攻坚、产能提升和补充资金。 "生产目前比较紧凑。"大族数控方面告诉《21CBR》记者，当前高端PCB制造设备紧缺。 这是高云峰 向港交所发起的第二波冲击。 鉴于AI供应链仍如烈火烹油，若一切顺利，高氏不单得偿所愿，收获一个港股IPO，且有机会 迎来一场财富盛宴。 分利聚才 鉴于AI供应链仍如烈火烹油，若一切顺利，高氏不单得偿所愿，收获一个港股IPO，且有机会 迎来一场财富盛宴。 高云峰，现年58岁，在深圳打拼多年，专攻制造设备，手握两家上市公司——大族激光和大族 数控。 数控业务是大族激光子公司，高氏将其分拆，一步步扩大规模， 当前市值在440亿元左右 ，超 过母公司。 高云峰主要任大族激光董事长，负责接待要员、出席行业活动、为产品站台等事宜。作为大族 系实控人，最新胡润百富榜估计， 其身家达135亿元。 | No. 504 | ¥ 135 亿 | ~ 72 | STATE 高云峰 | 大族激光 | | --- | ...

图片来源： bloomberg OpenAI 正与鸿海精密工业合作设计生产数据中心硬件，这是这家 ChatGPT 制造商为满足其支撑人工智能系统激增的基础设施需求所采取的最新举措。 鸿海集团（又名富士康）将与 OpenAI 共同设计开发数据中心服务器机架，并努力确保此类机架能在美国本土实现规模化生产。 富士康还计划为该国数据中心设施生产线缆、电力系统及其他关键设备。两家公司表示，与 OpenAI 的协议不包含具体采购承诺。 图片来源： bloomberg 过去数月里， OpenAI 已与从英伟达到超微半导体等云计算服务商及芯片制造商达成多笔数十亿美元协议，大幅扩张其数据中心规模。同时这家美国初创企 业正采取行动以加强对 AI 供应链的控制 ，包括 10 月与博通公司达成的芯片及零部件采购协议。不过这场预期的支出狂潮已引发人们对 AI 泡沫的担忧。 作为星际之门项目的合作伙伴，富士康已在扩大美国的 AI 服务器生产， 这既是行政管理部门的关键要求，也能降低关税风险。不过，与 OpenAI 的合作对 富士康的价值尚不明确。 奥特曼此前表示，其公司已承诺投入 1.4 万亿美元用于 AI 基础设施——对任何企业而言都 ...

Core Insights - The latest performance report from the AI infrastructure sector shows mixed results, particularly in the optical module segment, with only the industry leader, Zhongji Xuchuang, achieving consistent revenue and profit growth [1][5] Company Performance - Zhongji Xuchuang reported both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth in revenue and profit, maintaining high expectations from the market [1] - In contrast, both Xinyi and Tianfu Communication experienced declines in revenue, with Xinyi's revenue decreasing by 3.17 billion and Tianfu's by 0.48 billion quarter-on-quarter [7] - The stock prices of Xinyi and Tianfu fell sharply by 7.9% and 11.56% respectively after their earnings reports, while Zhongji Xuchuang's decline was more modest [1][3] Market Outlook - Zhongji Xuchuang's optimistic outlook was reinforced during an institutional conference call, where management indicated that overseas clients are increasing capital expenditures and providing clear demand guidance extending to 2025-2026 [3] - The company is preparing for large-scale deliveries in 2026-2027 by focusing on core material reserves and capacity expansion [3] - Zhongji Xuchuang is capitalizing on the growing demand for 800G and 1.6T products, with key clients starting to deploy 1.6T optical modules [3][4] Financial Metrics - Zhongji Xuchuang's gross margin has steadily improved to 40.74%, while Xinyi and Tianfu Communication have faced fluctuations in their gross margins due to cost pressures [8] - All three companies reported significant increases in inventory impairment losses, indicating operational risks associated with rapid expansion [10] Investment Sentiment - Citigroup's recent report highlights the strategic importance of optical modules within China's AI supply chain, ranking them as the top investment priority due to their potential for scale-up opportunities [11][12] - The report aligns with Zhongji Xuchuang's insights on the rapid growth of bandwidth demand, which could outpace other segments in the supply chain [12] - As the AI industry matures, companies with core technologies and stable supply chains are expected to outperform in the long run [13]