【10月13日花旗报告：贸易紧张或使投资者调整布局，AI供应链回调有机会】10月13日，花旗发布报 告称，中美贸易紧张上周意外重燃，双方均实施重大新贸易限制。 报告指出，贸易紧张升温或促使投 资者对出口导向股票避险，转而投向本土化概念股及非出口导向企业。 不过，苹果与AI供应链因有海 外产能或不受影响。考虑后续诸多正面催化剂，AI供应链回调或带来逢低布局机会。 涉及概念股有 ASMPT、豪威集团、圣邦股份、长、金蝶国际、丘钛科技及小米。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 和讯猎报 10.13 14:33:15 周- 扫码查看原文 【10月13日花旗报告:贸易紧张或使投资者调整布 局,Al供应链回调有机会】10月13日,花旗发布报 告称,中美贸易紧张上周意外重燃,双方均实施重 大新贸易限制。报告指出,贸易紧张升温或促使投 资者对出口导向股票避险,转而投向本土化概念股 及非出口导向企业。不过,苹果与Al供应链因有海 外产能或不受影响。考虑后续诸多正面催化剂,Al 供应链回调或带来逢低布局机会。涉及概念股有 ASMPT、豪威集团、圣邦股份、长、金蝶国际、丘 钛科技及小米。 本文由 Al ...

恒指上周升1012点，摩根资管亚太区首席市场策略师许长泰认为，这反映海外投资者对市况前景乐观， 而且港股今年一直跑赢美股，外资为避免继续"捱打"，可能逐步吸纳港股。看好大市到明年年底的前 景，但指数已连升5个月，或有投资者会对组合重新配置，出现获利回吐的机会升温，令现阶段值搏率 不太吸引，建议不需急于入市。 许长泰表示，近期Sell side(卖方)普遍调高科技股投资建议，显示行业发展值得期待，加上美国科技龙 头大手投资数据中心及发电厂等项目，市场憧憬中国会有同样发展空间，均利好整个AI供应链。 不过他坦言，港A股市场的新消费股累积不少升幅，短期欠缺值搏空间。投资者同时可留意其他亚洲市 场，如中国台湾。另外，日本选新首相，或对日本股市有重要启示。 他预期，美国政府停摆对美国股市直接影响有限，而且其他数据已显示劳动市场转弱，预计10月美联储 降息机会仍高。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for companies benefiting from the AI supply chain, specifically for 中际旭创 (300308 CH) and 生益科技 (600183 CH) [2][4]. Core Insights - AI infrastructure investment continues to grow, with NVIDIA's strong performance indicating sustained demand. NVIDIA's revenue for Q2 FY26 reached $46.7 billion, a 56% year-over-year increase and a 6% quarter-over-quarter increase, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates [2][4]. - The management expects Q3 revenue to be $54 billion, indicating a 16% quarter-over-quarter growth, which is significantly higher than previous quarters [2][4]. - The report highlights the robust growth in NVIDIA's data center revenue, which increased by 17% quarter-over-quarter, driven by high sales of Blackwell chips and strong network business growth [4]. Summary by Sections NVIDIA Performance - NVIDIA's Q2 FY26 revenue was $46.7 billion, with a Non-GAAP gross margin of 72.7%, expected to rise to around 75% by year-end [2][4]. - The net profit for Q2 was $25.8 billion, reflecting a 52% year-over-year increase and a 30% quarter-over-quarter increase [2][4]. Market Outlook - Management anticipates that the capital expenditure of the four major cloud providers will reach $600 billion by 2025, with market opportunities potentially expanding to $3-4 trillion by 2030 [4]. - The report emphasizes the improving return on investment for AI infrastructure, with GB200's ROI projected to be 10 times [4]. Geopolitical Considerations - NVIDIA's sales outlook in China remains uncertain due to geopolitical tensions, with potential revenue from H20 products estimated between $2 billion to $5 billion if conditions improve [4].

Group 1 - QFII has accelerated its investment in the Chinese capital market, with total holdings in disclosed A-share companies exceeding 20.4 billion yuan as of the end of Q2 2025, reflecting foreign investors' long-term confidence in Chinese assets [1][2] - The investment structure of QFII is broad and deep, covering key sectors such as non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, pharmaceuticals, and hardware equipment, with a particular focus on technology and manufacturing [2][3] - The top holdings of QFII include Shengyi Technology with a holding value of 9.55 billion yuan, followed by Ninebot and Oriental Yuhong with 1.169 billion yuan and 1.017 billion yuan respectively, indicating strong recognition of their fundamentals by foreign investors [2] Group 2 - QFII has actively adjusted its portfolio in Q2, significantly increasing holdings in 30 stocks, mainly in the non-ferrous metals and hardware equipment sectors, with Alloy Investment and New Power Financial being notable examples of substantial increases [3] - Among the 117 heavily held stocks, 56 were newly added by QFII in Q2, indicating a strong willingness to seek new investment targets [3] - Major global investment institutions, including Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and Morgan Stanley, are collectively optimistic about A-shares, with the former holding nearly 2.9 billion yuan in 9 stocks by the end of Q2 [5]

Group 1: Macro Analysis - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a hawkish stance to stabilize inflation expectations, with potential for 2-3 rate cuts in 2025 depending on economic indicators such as consumer and employment data [2] Group 2: New Stock Market Performance - In April 2025, 10 new stocks were listed, raising a total of 8.269 billion yuan, with an average first-day increase of 240.69% for main board stocks and 219.73% for ChiNext stocks, indicating strong market enthusiasm [3] Group 3: REITs Market Overview - As of April 30, 2025, there are 65 public REITs in China with a total issuance scale of 173.026 billion yuan, showing a monthly return rate of 0.65% in a fluctuating secondary market [4] Group 4: Communication Industry Insights - The communication industry saw a significant profit increase in Q1 2025, with 170 companies reporting a total net profit of 52.513 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 5.4% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 88.3% [5] Group 5: Chemical Industry Outlook - The high-performance organic pigment industry is showing a favorable trend, with recommendations to focus on undervalued, high-dividend companies in the oil and gas sector, as well as domestic material companies benefiting from the trend of domestic substitution [6]

Market Overview - Major indices showed strong performance with S&P 500 up 2.9%, Nasdaq 100 up 3.45%, and small-cap index up 3.24% [1] - S&P 500 has recorded its longest winning streak since 2004, recovering all losses since April 2 [1] - Employment data released last Friday was generally positive, leading to a shift in interest rate cut predictions from June to July by Goldman Sachs and other banks [1] Fund Flows and Investor Sentiment - Strong inflows were observed in the tech sector following positive earnings reports from Microsoft and Meta, with "Long Only" investors net buying approximately $1 billion [2] - Despite strong employment data, there was a lack of significant new inflows on Friday, indicating a calmer market [2] - Hedge funds exhibited a mixed trading approach, with some successful short trades and simultaneous long positions [2] Earnings Performance - As of now, 76% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, with Q1 EPS growth at 12%, exceeding initial expectations by 6% [2] - Earnings surprises are primarily driven by profit margins exceeding expectations rather than revenue, with an average EPS surprise of 5% and revenue surprise of only 1% [2][3] Sector Analysis Technology Sector - Nasdaq 100 index rose 13% over the past nine trading days, supported by reduced macroeconomic concerns and positive earnings [4] - Public cloud services showed significant growth, with Microsoft Azure's growth accelerating to 35% year-over-year, surpassing market expectations [5] - Capital expenditure data met or exceeded expectations, with Meta raising its full-year capital expenditure guidance [5] Consumer Sector - Despite a strong overall market, guidance from companies in the restaurant, consumer goods, and travel sectors indicated a slowdown in growth trends [6] Healthcare Sector - Positive trends in medical technology and diagnostics continue, while the pharmaceutical sector shows volatility [7] Financial and Real Estate Sector - Commercial real estate insurance pricing faces pressure, and the payment sector remains sensitive to performance [9] Industrial Sector - Industrial companies related to AI and data centers performed strongly, with better-than-expected order trends [10] Energy Sector - Q1 earnings results were mixed, with market preference for companies demonstrating strong execution and capital efficiency despite weak commodity prices [11][12] Summary and Outlook - As of May 9, S&P 500 implied volatility is at a moderate level of 2.25% [13] - Upcoming week will see a decrease in earnings reports, with macro focus shifting to central bank decisions [13]