Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The data center industry has become the core incremental application scenario for the power equipment sector, directly driving demand growth and technological iteration for power equipment [5][2] - The report emphasizes the need to incorporate AI industry multidimensional indicators to accurately gauge the demand for power distribution equipment, given the capital expenditure scale and long investment return cycles in the data center sector [2][5] - Key indicators are constructed from three aspects: demand side (capital expenditure from leading cloud vendors), supply chain (GPU supply tracking), and AI application side (development of AI applications) [2][5] Summary by Sections Demand Side - Capital expenditure from overseas major cloud vendors reached $113.862 billion in Q4 2025, a year-on-year increase of 59.42% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.30% [7] - Alibaba's capital expenditure in Q3 2025 was 31.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80.10% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 18.55% [10] - Tencent's capital expenditure in Q3 2025 was 13 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.05% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 32.05% [10] Supply Chain - NVIDIA's total revenue in Q3 2025 was $57.006 billion, with data center product revenue reaching $51.215 billion, marking a historical peak with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 24.62% and a year-on-year growth of 66.44% [15] - TSMC's revenue in December 2025 was 335 billion NTD, a year-on-year increase of 20.4% [22] - The CPU price index in December 2025 was 101.21, showing a slight increase from 99.04 in November [27] AI Application Side - The token call volume from January 27 to February 2, 2026, was 9.81 trillion, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 26.91% [36] - The price of tokens for models scoring over 40 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index decreased by over 50% in Q3 2025 [45] - The report highlights the steady growth in the number of AI models and the increasing application deployment, which directly impacts the capital expenditure cycle of data centers [29]

Group 1: Macro and Strategy - The macroeconomic report indicates a mixed economic performance in January, with emerging industries showing strength while manufacturing PMI declined, reflecting a structural optimization trend in the economy [9][10] - February has shown signs of improvement across various economic activities, with production and consumption rebounding, supported by increased logistics and consumer traffic [10] - The real estate market is stabilizing, with new home transactions recovering from lows and a decrease in second-hand home listings indicating changing market expectations [10] Group 2: Fixed Income and REITs - The convertible bond market experienced a rapid recovery after valuation compression, with over half of the convertible bonds rising in price [12][13] - The public REITs market saw a decline of 0.9% in the index, with commercial real estate REITs continuing to expand despite overall market downturns [15][16] - The average weekly return for different types of REITs varied, with transportation and ecological REITs showing smaller declines compared to others [16] Group 3: Industry Insights - The fluorochemical industry reported significant growth in January 2026, with prices for fluorinated polymers continuing to rise [3] - The oil and gas sector saw a substantial increase in prices due to geopolitical tensions, impacting overall market dynamics [3] - The lithium battery supply chain is advancing rapidly, with companies like CATL accelerating sodium battery applications in passenger vehicles [3] Group 4: Overseas Market Analysis - The U.S. stock market experienced a pullback, particularly in the software and semiconductor sectors, with significant capital outflows [29][32] - The Hong Kong market also faced a downturn, with consumer and industrial sectors performing relatively better amidst overall market declines [29][32] - The strategy indices in the Hong Kong market are becoming essential tools for asset allocation and risk management, particularly in volatile environments [29][30]

Group 1 - The outlook for space photovoltaic technology is promising, with Elon Musk announcing plans for SpaceX and Tesla to achieve 100GW/year solar capacity each over the next three years, specifically for space AI data centers and Starlink satellites [2][1] - Several domestic photovoltaic companies in China are actively engaging in the space photovoltaic sector and collaborating with commercial aerospace enterprises [2][1] - Recommended companies in the photovoltaic equipment sector and those involved in space business development include Maiwei Co., Ltd. (300751), JinkoSolar, Junda Co., Ltd. (002865), and Dongfang Risheng (300118) [2] Group 2 - Major global tech companies are significantly increasing their capital expenditures, which is expected to benefit the AIDC power equipment sector; Amazon plans to spend approximately $200 billion by 2026, a year-on-year increase of over 50%, while Google’s capital expenditure is projected to reach $175 billion to $185 billion, reflecting a growth of 91%-102% [3] - Meta is expected to allocate $115 billion to $135 billion for capital expenditures in 2026, marking a year-on-year increase of 59%-87% [3] - The overall acceleration in global data center construction indicates a surge in power demand for equipment in the AI era, with key companies to watch including Jinpan Technology, Xinte Electric (301120), Hewei Electric (603063), Shenghong Co., Ltd. (300693), and Zhongheng Electric (002364) [3] Group 3 - The solid-state battery industry is advancing, with companies like Enjie Co., Ltd. (002812) forming strategic partnerships in solid-state battery materials, and leading firms like Xianlead Intelligent Equipment (300450) providing new solid-state battery equipment [4] - The first prototype of a solid-state battery vehicle developed by China FAW has successfully rolled off the production line, and Geely plans to complete its first solid-state battery pack by 2026 [4] - Companies to focus on in the solid-state battery supply chain include Xiamen Tungsten (300750), Rongbai Technology, and Dingsheng Technology (300073) [4] Group 4 - The demand for global energy storage is steadily increasing, with domestic energy storage capacity policies driving a surge in orders, and the U.S. experiencing heightened demand for large-scale storage due to data center load issues [4] - European grid instability and widening price differentials in the spot market are also contributing to increased storage demand, with emerging markets seeing supportive government policies [4] - It is projected that global energy storage installation demand will reach 455GWh by 2026, representing a year-on-year growth of 40%, with recommended companies including CATL (300750), Yiwei Lithium Energy (300014), and DeYuan Co., Ltd. (605117) [4] Group 5 - The profitability of wind turbine manufacturers is recovering, with domestic wind power installations expected to grow by 10%-20% in 2026, supported by saturated orders and stable pricing [5] - Export growth is contributing to improved performance, with a positive correlation between domestic and international market conditions [5] - Key companies to monitor in the wind power sector include Goldwind Technology (002202), Taisheng Wind Power (300129), and SANY Renewable Energy [5]

Group 1: Solar Power and Space Photovoltaics - The potential for space photovoltaics is significant, with Elon Musk announcing plans for SpaceX and Tesla to achieve 100GW/year solar capacity each over the next three years, specifically for space AI data centers and Starlink satellites [1][79] - Several domestic solar companies are actively engaging in the space photovoltaic business and collaborating with commercial aerospace firms, suggesting a focus on leading component companies such as Maiwei Co., JinkoSolar, JunDa Co., and Dongfang Risheng [1][79] Group 2: AI Capital Expenditure and AIDC Power Equipment - Major tech giants are significantly increasing their capital expenditures for 2026, with Amazon expected to reach approximately $200 billion (up over 50%), Google between $175 billion and $185 billion (up 91%-102%), and Meta between $115 billion and $135 billion (up 59%-87%) [2][25] - The AIDC power equipment sector is anticipated to benefit from this surge in capital expenditure, with a focus on companies like Jinpan Technology, Xinte Electric, Hewei Electric, Shenghong Co., and Zhongheng Electric [2][25] Group 3: Solid-State Battery Industry - The solid-state battery industry is advancing, with strategic partnerships formed between Enjie Co. and Guoxuan High-Tech, and advancements in equipment from companies like XianDao Intelligent and Lianying Laser [3][64] - The application side is also progressing, with the first prototype of a solid-state battery vehicle from China FAW and plans from Geely to complete the first battery pack by 2026 [3][64] Group 4: Energy Storage Demand - Global energy storage demand is expected to grow steadily, with projections for 2026 indicating a global energy storage installation demand of 455GWh, a year-on-year increase of 40% [3] - Key companies to watch in this sector include CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Deye Co., Hewei Electric, Shenghong Co., and Kelu Electronics [3] Group 5: Wind Power Industry - The domestic wind power sector is projected to see a 10%-20% increase in new installations for 2026, supported by saturated orders and stable pricing [4][49] - Key companies in the wind power sector include Goldwind Technology, Taisen Wind Energy, Sany Renewable Energy, and others [4][50] Group 6: Investment Recommendations - Investment opportunities are highlighted in areas such as controlled nuclear fusion, green hydrogen, and ammonia industries, as well as the expansion of AIDC power equipment demand and the recovery of the grid equipment sector [4] - The report suggests monitoring the progress of solid-state battery industrialization and the impact of lithium material price increases on profitability [4] Group 7: Company Earnings Forecasts - Earnings forecasts for key companies indicate a positive outlook, with companies like KeliKe, DeliJia, Pinggao Electric, and Sifang Co. expected to show improved earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2026 [5]

黑龙江绿色甲醇与电解槽项目进入实施阶段，特斯拉官宣干电极工艺量产 光伏：硅片价格下跌，电池价格保持稳定。据安泰科，本周多晶硅主流产品无公开报价、无 实际成交。据 Infolink，硅片市场延续上周走弱态势，整体仍处于价格下探阶段。各尺寸硅 片价格普遍承压，市场价格重心进一步下移。N 型电池片价格方面，本周 183N、210RN、 210N 型号均价持稳于 0.45 元/W，价格区间维持 0.43-0.45 元/W。尽管此前银价冲高回落 带动市场形成电池片降价预期，但当前实体白银现货供给偏紧，厂家采购仍需加价，头部企 业报价暂未调整，继续维持 0.45 元/W 的主流水平。组件市场受银价波动传导，成本端呈现 起伏态势，各组件厂基于自身成本核算调整报价。本周国内分布式组件公开报价区间为 0.80- 0.88 元/W，实际成交价格则下探至 0.75-0.80 元/W；TOPCon 组件公示价格保持稳定，国内 均价 0.739 元/W，分布式实际成交均价 0.76 元/W。核心关注：1）供给侧改革下的产业链 涨价机会，核心关注通威股份、协鑫科技、隆基绿能、晶澳科技、晶科能源、天合光能等； 2）新技术背景下带来的中长期 ...

Group 1: Revenue Projections and Business Growth - Anthropic has revised its revenue expectations for 2026 and 2027 to $18 billion and $55 billion, respectively, driven by the increased penetration of its Agent product in the B2B sector [1] - The Agent's token consumption is reported to be several times higher than traditional chat models, indicating a significant shift in its utility and market position [1] - The Agent has transitioned from merely reducing costs to actively driving business growth, which is expected to be a key lever for Anthropic's revenue increase [1] Group 2: Market Trends and Competitive Landscape - As of November 2025, Claude Code's Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) has surpassed $1 billion, showcasing the competitive expansion of coding agents into general scenarios [2] - Major tech companies are embedding agents into their platforms to capture traffic, with Google Chrome integrating tools like Gemini and Nano Banana [2] - ChatGPT's global web traffic share has decreased to 64.5% in January 2026, down approximately 20 percentage points from January 2025, indicating a shift in user engagement and market dynamics [2] Group 3: Consumer and Community Engagement - OpenClaw has gained popularity, leading to increased purchases of Macmini, as it enhances user experience with large models in consumer settings [3] - Moltbook, an Agent version of Reddit, allows agents to autonomously interact, although the actual number of functioning agents is only in the thousands out of over 1.5 million created [4] - The social interactions among agents are characterized as mimicking games rather than genuine emotional exchanges, highlighting the nascent stage of agent community dynamics [4] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Suggested focus on domestic large models such as Minimax-WP and Zhiyu, as well as companies involved in Agent technology and infrastructure, including 合合信息 and 鼎捷数智 [5] - Recommendations also include investments in domestic computing power firms like 芯原股份 and 寒武纪, along with CPU manufacturers such as 澜起科技 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities indicates that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the domestic power equipment sector is benefiting from a resonance of investment both within and outside the network, with leading companies accelerating their overseas expansion [1] Group 1: Domestic Market Outlook - Since the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," power generation investment has seen rapid growth driven by the increase in new energy installations, while grid investment has maintained steady growth but at a significantly lower rate than power generation investment [1] - The demand for main equipment such as transformers and switchgear remains strong, with a stable competitive landscape; however, the pace of ultra-high voltage (UHV) advancement is slightly below expectations, and flexible direct current applications are reaching a turning point [1] - The price of electric meters continues to decline, putting pressure on meter companies, but the implementation of new standards in 2025 is expected to drive a price recovery [1] Group 2: 2026 Domestic Investment Outlook - The State Grid Corporation is expected to invest 4 trillion yuan in fixed assets during the "15th Five-Year Plan," a 40% increase compared to the "14th Five-Year Plan," with potential for upward adjustments [2] - The report suggests focusing on UHV, smart meters, and distribution network directions in 2026, with opportunities for demand recovery and new product development in smart meters [2] Group 3: 2026 Export Outlook - The growth of new energy installations is a common reason for the continuous increase in global power investment, with significant demand elasticity for power equipment compared to traditional energy sources [3] - From 2016 to 2022, global grid investment averaged approximately 310 billion USD annually, projected to rise to 500 billion USD from 2023 to 2030, and nearly 800 billion USD by 2030 [3] - Since 2022, various factors have driven explosive growth in overseas demand, leading to a supply-side gap, with Chinese leading companies accelerating their overseas expansion [3] Group 4: AIDC Outlook for 2026 - The demand for upgraded power distribution architecture is increasing due to the continuous enhancement of AI server power, with the AIDC power distribution method expected to evolve along the UPS-HVDC-SST path [4] - The global AIDC power equipment market is projected to exceed 410 billion yuan by 2030, with a CAGR of 39% from 2024 to 2030 [4] - 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for the application of 800V HVDC/SST in both domestic and international markets, creating new opportunities driven by technological changes [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the computer industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4][13] Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of autonomous agents, marking the beginning of the third scaling phase in the industry. Companies like Anthropic are revising their revenue expectations upwards, with projections of $18 billion and $55 billion for 2026 and 2027 respectively. The penetration of agents is expected to drive significant revenue growth [6] - The report notes a decline in global web traffic share for ChatGPT, which fell to 64.5% in January 2026, a decrease of approximately 20 percentage points compared to January 2025. This shift indicates a transition in growth narratives towards mixed revenue models [6] - The report emphasizes the potential for AI-native products to emerge rapidly, amplifying short-term industry volatility while validating long-term trends. It anticipates a significant increase in the "Token->ARR" conversion for agents in 2026, suggesting a robust investment opportunity in high-growth sectors [6] Summary by Sections Section: Market Performance - The report discusses the performance of the computer sector, indicating a positive outlook based on recent developments and market trends [2] Section: Autonomous Agents - The report details the advancements in autonomous agents, including their increasing role in B2B applications and the significant rise in token consumption compared to traditional chat models. The penetration of these agents is seen as a key lever for revenue growth for companies like Anthropic [6] Section: Consumer Productivity - OpenClaw has gained popularity, driving a surge in Mac mini purchases. The report notes that consumer sensitivity to model performance is low, while sensitivity to interaction is high, indicating a shift in user engagement with AI tools [6] Section: Group Intelligence - The emergence of Moltbook, an agent-based platform, is discussed as a preliminary form of group intelligence. The report highlights the initial chaotic nature of agent interactions and the potential for new business models to develop from these early stages [6] Section: Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on sectors with clear industry trends and high growth certainty, recommending investments in domestic large models, agents, infrastructure, and computing power companies. It advises on the importance of reverse investment strategies and forward-looking positioning due to industry volatility [6]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月05日 AIDC与电力设备2026年度投资策略 国内需求确定性夯实，出海与AIDC发展空间可期 行业研究 · 行业投资策略 电力设备新能源 · 电力设备 投资评级：优于大市 | 证券分析师：王蔚祺 | 证券分析师：王晓声 | 证券分析师：袁阳 | | --- | --- | --- | | 010-88005313 | 010-88005231 | 0755-22940078 | | wangweiqi2@guosen.com.cn | wangxiaosheng@guosen.com.cn | yuanyang2@guosen.com.cn | | S0980520080003 | S0980523050002 | S0980524030002 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 摘要 u "十四五"电力设备行业复盘：网内外需求景气共振，龙头企业出海加速 "十四五"以来，在新能源装机放量带动下，电源投资高速增长；电网投资保持稳健增长，但增速显著低于电源投资。在电源和电网投资带动下，"十四五"国内电力设备需求呈现网内外景 气共振态势。网内市场方面，变压器、组合电 ...

Group 1 - Zhongheng Electric experienced a limit down today, with a trading volume of 1.282 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 7.57% [1] - The data from the post-market dragon and tiger list shows that the Shenzhen Stock Connect special seat bought 24.1644 million yuan and sold 120 million yuan [1] - One institutional special seat had a net purchase of 42.9355 million yuan, while three institutional special seats had a net sale of 111 million yuan [1]