%% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 联合研究丨行业深度 [Table_Title] 电裕求新变，煤紧风正帆 %% %% 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 张韦华 肖勇 赵超 SAC：S0490517080003 SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490519030001 SFC：BQT627 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BUY139 叶如祯 司旗 宋尚骞 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490520120001 SAC：S0490520110001 庄越 刘亚辉 韦思宇 SAC：S0490522090003 SAC：S0490523080003 SAC：S0490524120007 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 25 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年用电需求增速放缓，火电电量近 10 年首次负增长，风电、光伏、火电新增装机创新高 的同时利用小时加速恶化。展望 2026 年，虽然绿电建设降速，但电量过剩问题依然较为严峻， 火电利用小时压力较大，看好价格机制改革的推进落实。结合电力供需平衡表对煤电的预 ...

2025年，大商所交出了一份扎实的成绩单：全年围绕已上市期货和期权品种，密集推出合约规则优化、 交割区域扩容、品牌交割引入、期现业务创新等43项举措。这些举措并非"一刀切"的统一政策，而是基 于"一品一策"工作思路，即针对每个品种的产业特点与发展阶段，量身定制服务方案，让期货衍生品真 正成为企业贸易定价、管理风险和优化经营的"趁手工具"。 契合产业发展实际 合约规则更"接地气" 期货的生命力在于贴近现货。2025年，大商所聚焦多个重点品种，对合约规则进行深度调整，使其更契 合当前产业发展实际。 以生猪品种为例，近年来，随着我国生猪育种技术和养殖技术的不断发展，生猪现货市场出栏体重较以 往有所增长。为顺应现货市场生猪出栏体重变化，2025年6月，大商所聚焦主流体重段调整交割质量标 准，提升期货定价精准度，为生猪期货更好地发挥市场功能创造条件。同时，交割中引入"整车过磅称 重"方式，显著提升了交割效率，减少后续生猪应激风险。 在黑色品种板块，2025年大商所推出一系列优化措施。为保障市场平稳运行，焦煤、焦炭、铁矿石等品 种自上市以来设置了较大的交割单位。随着市场逐步成熟，为更好地满足中小企业的交割需求，经过深 入 ...

Group 1 - The coal ETF (515220) experienced a decline of 1.12%, closing at 1.151 yuan with a trading volume of 303 million yuan [1] - Major holdings in the coal ETF showed mixed performance, with China Shenhua down 2.42%, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry down 2.44%, and Yanzhou Coal Mining down 0.80%, while Shanxi Coking Coal increased by 0.28% [1] - The coal ETF's performance benchmark is the CSI Coal Index return, managed by Guotai Asset Management, with a return of 172.28% since its inception on January 20, 2020, and a return of 6.49% over the past month [1]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment rating for the coal mining industry in Mongolia, highlighting its rich resources and potential for growth in exports, particularly to China [19][25]. Core Insights - Mongolia has abundant coal resources, with proven reserves of 252 million tons as of the end of 2020, including 135 million tons of lignite and brown coal, and 117 million tons of anthracite and bituminous coal [7][11]. - The coal mining sector is crucial for Mongolia's economy, with coal accounting for over 90% of the country's primary energy consumption, primarily used for power generation and exports [24][25]. - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of coal exports to China, which accounted for 94.9% of Mongolia's coal exports in 2024, showcasing the reliance on this market for growth [22][25]. Summary by Sections Coal Resource Overview - Mongolia's coal resources are mainly distributed across five regions, with the northern and southern areas being the most productive, contributing to 99% of the total output [7][11]. - The country has approximately 300 coal mines, with a significant portion of high-quality coking coal suitable for metallurgical processes [11][19]. Production and Export Trends - Coal production in Mongolia has seen fluctuations, with a peak of 32 million tons in 2011, primarily driven by export demand [21]. - The report forecasts a cumulative coal production of 97.72 million tons by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.3% from 2013 to 2024 [21]. - In 2025, coal production is expected to slow down due to a decline in demand from the Chinese coking coal market [21]. Infrastructure and Trade Ports - Key coal export ports include Gashuunsukhait, Tsagaan Khad, and Mandula, with ongoing improvements in cross-border railway and logistics infrastructure to enhance export capacity [28][32]. - The report outlines various railway projects aimed at increasing coal export volumes by approximately 4 million tons annually [32]. Company Insights: Mongolian Coal - Mongolian Coal is identified as the largest high-quality coking coal producer and exporter in Mongolia, with a diversified resource portfolio including gold and copper [40][41]. - The company has strategically shifted towards resource diversification, reducing reliance on coal by expanding into gold and copper mining [46][90]. - As of mid-2025, the company reported total coal reserves of 612 million tons, with a focus on enhancing production capabilities and market presence [56][61]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue has shown significant growth, particularly from 2015 to 2019, driven by increased demand from infrastructure projects in China [55]. - The report notes a typical cyclical fluctuation in revenue, with a notable increase in 2022 and 2023, followed by a decrease in the first half of 2025 [55][61]. Cost Structure and Pricing - The report details the cost structure of coal production, with average costs remaining stable around $77 per ton from 2018 to the first half of 2025 [71]. - Pricing strategies are influenced by market dynamics, with a focus on maintaining competitive pricing in the context of international coal markets [68][70].

Summary of Coal Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The coal sector typically outperforms the CSI 300 index after the Spring Festival, with average increases of 6.9% for coal and 9.2% for coking coal from 2015 to 2025, compared to a 3.1% increase for the CSI 300 index during the same period [2][5] - Current coal social inventory is low, standing at 160 million tons as of February 5, a year-on-year decrease of 3% [2][6] - Coking coal inventory is at 29.65 million tons, down 5.5% year-on-year, which supports price increases post-festival [2][6] Key Points and Arguments - The Indonesian government plans to reduce coal production from 790 million tons in 2026 to 600 million tons, a 24% decrease, which is expected to tighten global supply and support international coal prices [2][6] - Domestic coal production is also expected to decrease, with Yulin City announcing a plan to exit 19 supply mines, affecting 19 million tons of capacity, alongside stricter safety production regulations [2][6] - Rising international coal prices, driven by Indonesian price increases from $51 to $59 per ton and higher Australian coking coal prices due to increased demand from India, are likely to push domestic prices up as steel and power plants may shift to domestic resources [7] Price Expectations - Long-term expectations for thermal coal prices are projected to rise to 800-850 RMB per ton, with potential increases to 900-1,000 RMB per ton if production cuts exceed expectations [7] - Coking coal prices are expected to stabilize around 2000 RMB per ton due to rigid supply and improving demand [7] Investment Opportunities - The coking coal sector presents medium to long-term investment opportunities due to a decrease in high-quality coking coal supply globally, while demand continues to grow, particularly in developing countries like the Middle East, India, ASEAN, and Africa [3][8] - The U.S. Department of Energy and India have classified coking coal as a strategic resource, highlighting its importance for economic development [3][8] Investment Strategy Recommendations - Based on the current low inventory and positive global demand outlook, the focus is on both thermal and coking coal sectors for 2026 [9] - High-dividend companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy are recommended for investment [9] - Companies with high elasticity, such as Hengyuan Coal Power and Pingmei Shenma Energy, are also highlighted [9] - Investors are advised to buy on dips to capitalize on potential returns, particularly for companies with overseas mining resources that are not constrained by long-term contracts [9]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment rating for the coal mining industry in Mongolia, highlighting its rich resources and potential for growth in exports, particularly to China [19][25]. Core Insights - Mongolia has abundant coal resources, with proven reserves of 252 million tons as of the end of 2020, including 135 million tons of lignite and brown coal, and 117 million tons of anthracite and bituminous coal [7][11]. - The coal mining sector is crucial for Mongolia's economy, with coal accounting for over 90% of the country's primary energy consumption, primarily used for power generation and exports [24][25]. - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of coal exports to China, which accounted for 94.9% of Mongolia's coal exports in 2024, showcasing the reliance on this market for growth [22][25]. Summary by Sections Coal Resource Overview - Mongolia's coal resources are distributed across various regions, with the northern and southern areas being the most productive, contributing to 99% of the total output [7][11]. - The country has approximately 300 coal mines, with a significant portion of high-quality coking coal suitable for metallurgical processes [11][19]. Production and Export Trends - Coal production in Mongolia has seen fluctuations, with a peak of 32 million tons in 2011, primarily driven by export demand [21]. - The report forecasts a cumulative coal production of 97.72 million tons by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.3% from 2013 to 2024 [21]. - In 2025, coal production is expected to slow down due to a decline in demand from the Chinese coking coal market [21]. Infrastructure and Trade Ports - Key coal export ports include Gashuunsukhait, Tsagaan Khad, and Mandula, with ongoing improvements in cross-border railway and logistics infrastructure to enhance export capacity [28][32]. - The report outlines various railway projects aimed at increasing coal export volumes by approximately 4 million tons annually [32]. Company Analysis: Mongolian Coal - Mongolian Coal is identified as the largest producer and exporter of high-quality coking coal in Mongolia, with diversified mineral resource development including gold and copper [40][43]. - The company has a strategic focus on expanding its resource base and reducing dependency on coal by entering the gold and copper sectors [46][90]. - As of mid-2025, the company reported total coal reserves of 612 million tons, with significant production capabilities from its UHG and BN mines [56][58]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue has shown cyclical fluctuations, with significant growth from 2015 to 2019, followed by a contraction during the pandemic, and a resurgence in 2021-2024 [55]. - The report highlights that coal sales remain the primary revenue source, with hard coking coal contributing the majority of sales [55][67]. Cost Structure and Pricing - The report details the cost structure of coal production, with average costs remaining stable around $77 per ton from 2018 to mid-2025, despite fluctuations in transportation and compliance costs [71][74]. - Pricing strategies are influenced by market dynamics, with hard coking coal prices expected to stabilize around $160-$180 per ton in 2024 [70][71].

Core Viewpoint - The company has announced a change in its signing accountants for the 2025 fiscal year, appointing new auditors from the same firm due to internal adjustments within the auditing firm [1][5]. Group 1: Change of Signing Accountants - The company held board meetings on December 15, 2025, and a shareholder meeting on December 31, 2025, to approve the change of auditing firm to Grant Thornton [1]. - The new signing accountants appointed are Wang Huachen and Wang Huijun, replacing the previous auditors Wang Gaolin and Zhang Xiaoling due to internal adjustments at Grant Thornton [1]. Group 2: New Signing Accountants' Background - Wang Huachen has been a certified public accountant since 2004, has been involved in auditing listed companies since 2013, and has been with Grant Thornton since 2022 [2]. - Wang Huijun became a certified public accountant in 2020, has been involved in auditing listed companies since 2013, and started working at Grant Thornton in 2025 [2]. Group 3: Integrity Records - Both Wang Huachen and Wang Huijun have not faced any criminal penalties or disciplinary actions from regulatory bodies in the past three years [3]. - They have not received any administrative penalties or supervision measures from the China Securities Regulatory Commission or self-regulatory organizations [3]. Group 4: Independence - Both new signing accountants comply with the independence requirements set forth in the Code of Ethics for Chinese Certified Public Accountants [4]. Group 5: Impact on the Company - The transition to the new signing accountants has been orderly, and it is expected that this change will not adversely affect the company's financial statements or internal control audit for the 2025 fiscal year [5].

证券代码：601666 证券简称：平煤股份 编号：2026-014 平顶山天安煤业股份有限公司 关于变更签字会计师的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 平顶山天安煤业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）分别于 2025 年 12 月 15 日召开第九届董事会第四十八次会议、2025 年 12 月 31 日召开 2025 年第四次临时股东会，审议通过了《关于变更会计师事 务所的议案》，同意聘任致同会计师事务所（特殊普通合伙）（以下 简称"致同会计师事务所"）为公司 2025 年度审计机构。具体内容 详见公司于 2025 年 12 月 16 日在上海证券交易所网站披露的《平煤 股份关于变更会计师事务所的公告》（公告编号：2025-090）。 近日，公司收到致同会计师事务所出具的《关于变更公司签字注 册会计师的告知函》，现将具体情况公告如下： 一、本次变更签字会计师的情况 2022 年开始在致同会计师事务所执业，具备相应专业胜任能力。 王慧军，2020 年成为注册会计师，2013 年起从事上市公司审计， 2025 ...

Core Viewpoint - The merger of Pingmei Shenma Group and Henan Energy Group marks the establishment of a new energy and chemical industry giant in China, with an asset scale of nearly 600 billion yuan and annual revenue of about 300 billion yuan, aiming for high-end, intelligent, and green industrial upgrades [1] Group 1: Merger and Strategic Goals - The merger is not merely an asset consolidation but a systematic restructuring aligned with national strategies and provincial missions, focusing on future industrial layouts [1] - The new group will operate under a dual main business model of "energy + functional materials," with five A-share listed companies playing distinct roles in the industrial landscape [1] Group 2: Operational Efficiency and Cost Reduction - Pingmei Group has successfully reduced coal production costs from 82 yuan per ton to below 60 yuan through large-scale deep well filling technology, releasing 800 million tons of coal resources [2] - The company is expanding its quality coking coal reserves in regions like Xinjiang and Ningxia to ensure stable raw material supply for downstream industries [2] Group 3: Innovation and New Business Development - The new group aims to leverage its platform advantages to enhance governance, production operations, and investor relations, focusing on strengthening coal supply capabilities for regional energy security [3] - The company is transforming from traditional coal to high-end nylon and new energy materials, with significant cost savings achieved through innovative production processes [3][4] Group 4: New Energy and Material Ventures - Yicheng New Energy has established a complete industrial chain from coking coal to battery materials, with partnerships to develop green low-carbon energy projects [5] - Silane Technology has achieved breakthroughs in high-purity silane production, with an annual capacity of 6,100 tons, and is expanding into the semiconductor materials market [6] Group 5: Future Directions and Strategic Focus - The year 2026 is designated as a year for efficiency transformation, emphasizing resource allocation and operational efficiency to ensure sustainable growth [7] - The group plans to focus on energy and functional materials, integrating smart technology, green transformation, and innovative collaboration to become a world-class enterprise [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huabei Mining [1] Core Views - Huabei Mining is positioned as a leading coal and coke enterprise in East China, with expected increases in both volume and price in 2026, indicating a potential turning point in profitability [7] - The company has a strong competitive advantage due to its abundant coal resources and favorable location in a region with high demand but limited supply [31] - The report highlights the company's effective cost control measures, which have led to a significant reduction in unit costs [50] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Huabei Mining is a leading integrated coal and coke operator in East China, with its main business segments including coal, coal chemical products, electricity, and construction materials [11][13] - The company is controlled by the Anhui Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, with a significant shareholding by Huabei Mining Group [11] Coal Business - The company expects a recovery in coal production in 2026, driven by the resumption of operations at the Xinhukou Mine and the commissioning of the Taohutu Mine [36] - As of H1 2025, the company has a coal reserve of over 2 billion tons and an approved annual production capacity of 34.25 million tons, with a potential lifespan of nearly 60 years based on current reserves [31][29] - The average selling price of coal is expected to rise, with January 2026 prices at 1,660 RMB per ton, reflecting a 28 RMB increase from Q4 2025 [45] Coal Chemical Business - The coal chemical segment is anticipated to reach a profitability turning point, with new projects expected to contribute positively to earnings [7] - The company has a total annual production capacity for coal chemicals of 440,000 tons for coke, 90,000 tons for methanol, and 60,000 tons for ethanol [7] Other Business Segments - The company has additional projects in electricity generation and limestone production, which are expected to enhance overall performance in 2026 [7] - A new 2×660MW ultra-supercritical coal-fired power project is expected to contribute approximately 196 million RMB in annual profit once operational [7] Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The report forecasts net profits for the company to be 1.495 billion RMB in 2025, 3 billion RMB in 2026, and 4.106 billion RMB in 2027, indicating a significant recovery trajectory [8] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 23.3 for 2025, dropping to 11.6 for 2026, suggesting a favorable valuation for investors [8]