Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities highlights that by 2026, companies with high undistributed profits, ample cash reserves, and low debt ratios are expected to have strong dividend potential, supported by favorable conditions in market value management, high dividend strategies, and declining capital expenditures in the steel and aluminum industries [1] Group 1: Dividend Potential of Companies - Companies recommended for strong dividend potential include Hualing Steel (000932.SZ), Baosteel (600019.SH), and Jiuli Special Materials (002318.SZ), with China Aluminum (601600.SH) suggested for further observation [1] - China Shenhua's cash dividend ratio increased significantly from an average of 39% (2008-2016) to 151% in 2017, with an average of 74% from 2018 to 2024, driven by low debt ratios, reduced capital expenditures, and high undistributed profits [1] Group 2: High Dividend Yield Companies - As of February 6, 2026, there are only eight companies in the steel and electrolytic aluminum sectors with dividend yields above 3%, including Youfa Group (6.90%), Baosteel (4.18%), and Jiuli Special Materials (3.23%) [2] Group 3: Factors Supporting Dividend Increases - Three favorable factors for potential dividend increases in the steel and aluminum sectors include: 1. Market value management being included in assessments, encouraging companies to enhance cash dividends [3] 2. Large-scale entry of insurance capital, making high dividend strategies a core asset allocation choice [3] 3. Gradual decline in capital expenditures in the steel and aluminum industries, allowing for increased cash dividends [3] - A scoring system based on undistributed profits, cash reserves, and debt ratios identifies 14 companies with strong dividend potential, with Hualing Steel and Baosteel scoring highest in the steel sector [3]

Investment Rating - Steel industry: Maintain "Overweight" rating [6] - Non-ferrous industry: Maintain "Overweight" rating [6] Core Insights - The report highlights the potential for increased dividend payouts in the steel and aluminum sectors, driven by three main factors: the inclusion of market value management in assessments, significant insurance capital entering the market, and a gradual decline in capital expenditures within the steel and aluminum industries [3][5][29]. Summary by Sections Dividend Potential Analysis - The report identifies that only 8 companies in the steel and aluminum sectors currently have dividend yields above 3%, with notable companies including Youfa Group (6.90%), Ordos (4.62%), and Baosteel (4.18%) [2][22]. - A total of 14 companies in the steel and aluminum sectors meet the criteria for strong dividend potential, which includes having a high ratio of undistributed profits to total market value, sufficient cash reserves, and a debt ratio below 60% [4][32]. Factors Supporting Dividend Increases - The inclusion of market value management in the assessment of central enterprises is expected to accelerate the realization of dividend potential, as it encourages companies to enhance their market performance and return value to investors through increased cash dividends [3][25]. - The influx of insurance capital into the market is pushing for a revaluation of dividend-paying assets, as high dividend strategies become a core choice for insurance companies seeking stable returns [3][27]. - Capital expenditures in the steel and aluminum industries are anticipated to decline as the steel industry's ultra-low emission upgrades conclude and aluminum production approaches capacity limits, which may lead to higher future dividend payouts [3][30]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with high undistributed profits, ample cash reserves, and low debt ratios, specifically highlighting Huazhong Steel, Baosteel, and Jiuli Special Materials as key investment opportunities, while suggesting to keep an eye on China Aluminum [5][34].

Core Viewpoint - New Steel Co., Ltd. has shown a mixed performance in stock price and financial results, with a recent increase in stock price but a decline in revenue year-on-year while net profit has significantly increased [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On February 11, New Steel's stock price increased by 2.05%, reaching 3.99 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.20 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 0.96%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 12.704 billion CNY [1]. - Year-to-date, New Steel's stock price has risen by 2.84%, with a 0.76% increase over the last five trading days, a 3.91% increase over the last 20 days, but a 6.99% decrease over the last 60 days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, New Steel reported operating revenue of 27.225 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 12.68%, while net profit attributable to shareholders reached 360 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 162.21% [2]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of October 31, New Steel had 38,200 shareholders, with an average of 82,368 circulating shares per shareholder, both figures remaining unchanged from the previous period [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 5.584 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 816 million CNY distributed over the past three years [3]. - Notable changes in institutional holdings include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited becoming the second-largest circulating shareholder, increasing its holdings by 49.8782 million shares, and several new institutional investors entering the top ten shareholders list [3].

Core Viewpoint - New Steel Co., Ltd. has shown a mixed performance in stock price and financial results, with a notable increase in net profit despite a decline in revenue [2][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On February 10, New Steel's stock price increased by 2.05%, reaching 3.98 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.53 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 1.25%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 12.672 billion CNY [1]. - Year-to-date, New Steel's stock price has risen by 2.58%, with a 4.74% increase over the last five trading days, a 1.79% increase over the last 20 days, and a 7.66% decrease over the last 60 days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, New Steel reported an operating revenue of 27.225 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 12.68%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 360 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 162.21% [2]. - Since its A-share listing, New Steel has distributed a total of 5.584 billion CNY in dividends, with 816 million CNY distributed over the past three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of October 31, New Steel had 38,200 shareholders, with an average of 82,368 circulating shares per person, showing no change from the previous period [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited as the second-largest shareholder, increasing its holdings by 49.8782 million shares to 83.8502 million shares [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable but weakened investment rating for the Chinese steel industry, indicating a neutral overall credit impact despite ongoing challenges [4][6]. Core Insights - The Chinese steel industry is expected to stabilize at the bottom and show signs of fragile recovery in 2026, driven by structural upgrades and cost relief, while facing supply-demand contradictions and price pressures [4][6]. - The overall credit quality of the industry is projected to weaken in the next 12 to 18 months but will remain above a "negative" status level [4][6]. - The competitive landscape of the steel industry has entered a new phase focused on quality improvement and efficiency, with a notable recovery in operational performance since 2025 [6][22]. Industry Fundamentals Analysis - The steel industry is experiencing a mix of factors, including persistent overcapacity, demand pressure, and price suppression, leading to a stabilization at the bottom and a fragile recovery [7][8]. - The real estate sector continues to face challenges, with significant declines in investment and construction metrics, but policy support is expected to mitigate negative impacts on the steel industry [8][15]. - Infrastructure investment is projected to stabilize and support steel demand, with government measures aimed at increasing investment in key areas [8][15]. Industry Credit Analysis - The competitive landscape has shifted towards quality enhancement, with major players like China Baowu Steel Group and Ansteel Group leading consolidation efforts [34][35]. - The industry is characterized by a high level of financial leverage and weak debt repayment indicators, but no significant credit adjustments have been observed [34][39]. - The credit risk landscape is expected to remain controllable, although individual companies with persistent losses and weak financial management may face heightened credit risk exposure [34][39]. Investment Spending Analysis - The steel industry has entered a phase of investment contraction and structural optimization, with a focus on green and low-emission projects [31][32]. - Investment in the industry is expected to remain constrained due to ongoing financial pressures and the need for compliance with environmental regulations [31][32]. - The transition towards high-end product development and technological upgrades is anticipated to dominate capital expenditures in the coming years [31][32].

Market Performance - The steel sector declined by 3.02% this week, underperforming the broader market, with sub-sectors such as special steel down 2.10%, long products down 1.88%, and flat products down 3.84% [2][5] - Iron ore and steel consumables sectors also saw declines of 1.74% and 3.02% respectively, while the trade circulation sector fell by 4.006% [2][5] Supply Situation - As of February 6, the capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces in sample steel enterprises was 85.7%, an increase of 0.22 percentage points week-on-week [2] - Electric furnace capacity utilization was at 48.1%, a decrease of 7.59 percentage points week-on-week [2] - The production of five major steel products was 7.208 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 15,500 tons [2] - Daily average pig iron production was 2.2858 million tons, an increase of 6,000 tons week-on-week and 1,400 tons year-on-year [5] Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products was 7.607 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 410,800 tons, or 5.12% [2] - Mainstream traders' sales volume of construction steel was 35,000 tons, down 32,500 tons week-on-week, representing a 48.24% decline [2] Inventory Situation - As of February 6, social inventory of five major steel products was 9.404 million tons, an increase of 496,800 tons week-on-week, or 5.58%, but down 18.04% year-on-year [3][5] - Factory inventory of five major steel products was 3.973 million tons, an increase of 95,600 tons week-on-week, or 2.47%, and down 24.13% year-on-year [3][5] Steel Prices & Profits - As of February 6, the comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,414.2 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 13.31 yuan/ton, or 0.39%, and down 5.51% year-on-year [3] - The comprehensive index for special steel was 6,582.0 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2.28 yuan/ton, or 0.03%, and down 2.88% year-on-year [3] - The profit for rebar from blast furnaces was 65 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.0 yuan/ton week-on-week, or 27.45% [3] - The profit for construction steel from electric furnaces was -76 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.0 yuan/ton week-on-week, or 5.00% [3] Raw Material Situation - As of February 6, the spot price index for Australian powder ore (62% Fe) at Rizhao Port was 764 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 29.0 yuan/ton, or 3.66% [4] - The price for main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,700 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 80.0 yuan/ton [4] - The average available days of iron ore for sample steel enterprises was 31.29 days, an increase of 2.6 days week-on-week [4] Investment Recommendations - The steel sector is expected to have strong "anti-involution" characteristics and significant profit recovery potential, with high-quality steel companies likely to see performance improvements [6][7] - Key companies to focus on include regional leaders with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as those benefiting from the new energy cycle [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [2]. Core Views - Demand is expected to gradually bottom out, and supply-side adjustments are beginning to show, indicating a potential recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals. If supply policies are implemented, the contraction in supply may accelerate, leading to a quicker industry upturn [4]. - The report highlights that approximately 60% of steel companies are currently operating at a loss, but market-driven supply adjustments are starting to occur, suggesting a gradual recovery in the steel sector [5]. Summary by Sections Steel Market Overview - Last week, the apparent consumption of five major steel products was 7.607 million tons, a decrease of 5.12% week-on-week but an increase of 32.12% year-on-year. Rebar consumption was 1.476 million tons, down 16.3% week-on-week, but up 143.03% year-on-year [16]. - The total steel inventory reached 13.3775 million tons, an increase of 4.63% week-on-week, maintaining a low level [5]. - The average gross profit for rebar was 159.5 CNY/ton, down 37.4 CNY/ton from the previous week, while hot-rolled coil profit was 19.5 CNY/ton, down 27.4 CNY/ton [5][33]. Raw Materials - Iron ore spot prices decreased, with the price for PB powder (61.5% iron content) at 766 CNY/ton, down 26 CNY/ton week-on-week. The main iron ore futures price fell by 31 CNY/ton to 760.5 CNY/ton, a decline of 3.92% [42]. - Iron ore port inventory rose to 171.41 million tons, an increase of 0.7% week-on-week, with the average available days of imported iron ore for domestic steel companies increasing to 31 days, up 14.81% [45][48]. Production and Capacity Utilization - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills increased to 79.53%, up 0.53 percentage points week-on-week, while the capacity utilization rate was 85.69%, up 0.22 percentage points [24]. - The total steel production last week was 8.199 million tons, a decrease of 3.27 million tons week-on-week [31]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with leading technology and product structures, such as Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Shougang, as well as low-cost and flexible steel companies like Fangda Special Steel and New Steel [5].

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨钢铁 [Table_Title] 铁矿供需趋弱，如何展望铁矿石的价格？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年开始，铁矿基本面宽松的格局逐步显现。尽管国内铁水产量不降反增——钢联口径， 247 家样本钢企日均铁水产量 236.79 万吨，同比增 3.1%，意味着铁矿需求端的支撑强劲；然 而，铁矿企业供应量的增长，以及海外对铁矿需求的弱势，使得国内铁矿供给的增长比需求更 显著——结果是，当前铁矿石港口库存达到 1.71 亿吨，为有纪录以来的最高位，超过了 2016~2018 年供改和 2021 年国内粗钢产量平控期间，铁矿港口库存累积的幅度。然而，与铁 矿供需趋弱相矛盾的，是矿价的高居不下。如何展望铁矿石的价格？ 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 赵超 易轰 吕士诚 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490520080012 SAC：S0490525080005 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUY139 SFC：BUZ394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% re ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Bullish" [2]. Report's Core View - The current inventory accumulation pressure of the five major steel products is relatively limited, with the overall inventory at a relatively low level in history and the inventory accumulation speed slower than in previous years. Coupled with the supply support formed by the potential slight contraction of local production capacity due to recent safety inspections, the steel inventory pressure is limited. Currently, the profit per ton of general steel is considerable. Against the backdrop of the industry's "anti - involution," the performance improvement space of general steel companies is large, and they are expected to experience value restoration. The steel sector is also expected to present an opportunity for allocation. Based on the judgment of the steel industry cycle, the steel sector has strong "anti - involution" attributes and a large profit restoration space. High - quality steel enterprises have excellent upward elasticity brought about by the gradual restoration of performance and the room for the sector's valuation to rise due to the improvement of the supply pattern. The sector still has medium - to - long - term strategic investment opportunities, so the "Bullish" rating for the industry is maintained [2][3]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. This Week's Performance of the Steel Sector and Individual Stocks - The steel sector fell 3.02% this week, underperforming the broader market. The CSI 300 fell 1.33% to 4643.60. The top three sectors in terms of gains and losses were food and beverage (4.44%), textile and apparel (2.23%), and banking (2.09%) [10]. - The special steel sector fell 2.10%, the long - product sector fell 1.88%, the plate sector fell 3.84%, the iron ore sector fell 1.74%, the steel consumables sector fell 3.02%, and the trade and distribution sector fell 4.006% [2][13][17]. - The top three stocks in the steel sector in terms of gains and losses were Boyun New Materials (9.79%), Dazhong Mining (5.92%), and Shengde Xintai (4.72%) [15]. 2. This Week's Core Data Supply - As of February 6, the daily average hot metal output was 228.58 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.60 million tons (0.26%) and a year - on - year increase of 0.06% [25]. - As of February 6, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of sample steel enterprises was 85.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.22 percentage points [25]. - As of February 6, the electric furnace capacity utilization rate of sample steel enterprises was 48.1%, a week - on - week decrease of 7.59 percentage points [25]. - As of February 6, the output of the five major steel products was 720.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.55 million tons (0.21%) [25]. Demand - As of February 6, the consumption of the five major steel products was 760.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41.08 million tons (5.12%) [35]. - As of February 6, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream trading companies was 3.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.25 million tons (48.24%) [35]. - As of February 1, 2026, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 1.655 million square meters, a week - on - week increase of 226,000 square meters [35]. - As of February 8, the net financing amount of local government special bonds was 1.0851 trillion yuan, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 121.74% [35]. Inventory - As of February 6, the social inventory of the five major steel products was 940.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 49.68 million tons (5.58%) and a year - on - year decrease of 18.04% [43]. - As of February 6, the in - plant inventory of the five major steel products was 397.3 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.56 million tons (2.47%) and a year - on - year decrease of 24.13% [43]. Steel Prices - As of February 6, the general steel composite index was 3414.2 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 13.31 yuan/ton (0.39%) and a year - on - year decrease of 5.51% [49]. - As of February 6, the special steel composite index was 6582.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.28 yuan/ton (0.03%) and a year - on - year decrease of 2.88% [49]. Steel Mill Profits - As of January 30, the national average hot metal cost was 2396 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 12.0 yuan/ton [57]. - As of February 6, the profit per ton of construction steel electric furnace at normal electricity price was - 76 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4.0 yuan/ton (5.00%) [57]. - As of February 6, the profit per ton of blast furnace for rebar was 65 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 14.0 yuan/ton (27.45%) [57]. - As of February 6, the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 39.39%, unchanged from the previous week [57]. Futures - Spot Basis - As of February 6, the spot basis of hot - rolled coils was - 1 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 17.0 yuan/ton [65]. - As of February 6, the spot basis of rebar was 143 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 21.0 yuan/ton [65]. - As of February 6, the spot basis of coke was - 117 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 18.0 yuan/ton [65]. - As of February 6, the spot basis of coking coal was 73.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 21.5 yuan/ton [65]. - As of February 6, the spot basis of iron ore was 4.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.0 yuan/ton [65]. Raw Materials: Price & Profit - As of February 6, the spot price index of Australian powder ore in Rizhao Port (62% Fe) was 764 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 29.0 yuan/ton [74]. - As of February 5, the ex - warehouse price of main coking coal in Jingtang Port was 1700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 80.0 yuan/ton [74]. - As of February 6, the ex - factory price of first - grade metallurgical coke was 1770 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [74]. - As of February 6, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was - 10 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 45.0 yuan/ton [74]. - As of February 6, the price difference between hot metal and scrap steel was 66.3 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 51.9 yuan/ton [74]. 3. Valuation Table and Key Announcements of Listed Companies Valuation Table of Listed Companies - The table shows the closing prices, net profits attributable to parent companies, EPS, and P/E ratios of multiple listed steel companies from 2024 to 2027 [75]. Key Announcements of Listed Companies - Youfa Group plans to invest in establishing a wholly - owned subsidiary, Guangdong Youfa Pipe Industry Technology Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 500 million yuan [76]. - Hainan Mining is planning to acquire the control rights of Luoyang Fengrui Fluorine Industry Co., Ltd. through the issuance of shares and payment of cash and raise supporting funds. The company's stock has been suspended since January 29, 2026, with an expected suspension time of no more than 10 trading days [76]. - Hualing Steel has repurchased 56,023,339 shares as of January 31, 2026, accounting for 0.8109% of the total share capital, with a total transaction amount of 278,597,423.90 yuan [78]. - Anyang Iron and Steel expects a loss of about 460 million yuan in 2025, with a year - on - year reduction of about 85.94% in the loss amount. The net profit after deducting non - recurring gains and losses is expected to be about - 748 million yuan, with a year - on - year reduction of about 77.44% in the loss amount [78]. 4. This Week's Important Industry News - The new - home transactions in 10 major cities increased by 26.8% week - on - week, indicating a warming of real estate demand and having a marginal boost to the demand for construction steel [79]. - Indonesia has suspended the spot coal export due to the government's production cut plan, which may affect China's coal supply and be negative for steel prices [79]. - As of February 2, 23 listed steel companies have released their 2025 performance forecasts, with 12 in profit and 11 in loss [79]. - In January 2026, the sales volume of excavators in China was 18,708 units, a year - on - year increase of 49.5%, with domestic sales increasing by 61.4% and exports increasing by 40.5% [79].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 07 年 月 日 钢铁 惊涛之后 行情回顾（2.2-2.6）： 铁水产量增加，库存增幅扩大。本周全国高炉产能利用率回升，国内 247 家钢厂高炉产能利用率为 85.7%，环比+0.3pct，同比-0.1pct；五大品种 钢材周产量为 819.9 万吨，环比-0.4%，同比+1.4%；本周长流程产量增 加，日均铁水产量增 0.7 万吨至 228.6 万吨，钢材产量小幅下降，螺纹 钢产量降幅明显；库存方面，本周五大品种钢材周社会库存为 940.4 万吨， 环比+5.6%，同比-18.0%，钢厂库存为 397.3 万吨，环比+2.5%，同比- 24.1%；钢材总库存增幅扩大，周环比增加 4.6%，较上周增幅扩大 2.9pct，社会库存增幅大于钢厂库存；本周由产量与总库存数据汇总后的 五大品种钢材周表观消费 760.7 万吨，环比-5.1%，同比+22.3%，其中螺 增持（维持） 行业走势 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 2026-02 钢铁 沪深300 作者 分析师 笃慧 执业证书编 ...