自立自强，科技长牛-科技组 26 年策略报告 20251208 模型平权与成本下降推动 AI 应用爆发，国内大模型 API 调用成本仅为海 外模型的 1/5，加速生产力平权。关注企业级 AI Agent（如金蝶）、垂 直 know-how 专家（如静态科技、群核科技）以及 AI 原生内容与交互 （如万兴科技、美图）等赛道。 国产算力渗透率快速提升，预计 2026 年将达 40%以上，受益于地缘政 治及政策驱动。国产芯片性能提升，中国 AI 应用生态正建立在自主可控 的算力基础上，利好相关产业链公司。 产业焦点从训练转向推理，资本市场关注创造价值的应用推理场。应关 注以 AI 原生理念构建产品核心架构的公司，而非仅添加 AI 插件的企业。 光模块板块持续看好，1.6T 产品预计 2026 年将迎来十倍甚至十五倍放 量。推荐中际旭创，其在 1.6T 产品上具有代际领先优势，下游客户需求 强劲。 卫星互联网发展前景乐观，火箭发射运力提升将带动卫星产业链业绩兑 现。推荐普天科技，其在太空算力运营商逻辑上具有优势，有望在主题 行情中表现优异。 摘要 2025 年整体市场的主线非常清晰，主要是在交易北美算力的高景气度背景 ...

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of Jiatou Group by Tiandi Online has been terminated after 13 months due to the withdrawal of the application for share issuance and cash payment for asset purchase, as well as the related fundraising [1] Group 1: Acquisition Details - Tiandi Online announced plans to acquire 100% equity of Jiatou Group for a total price of 360 million yuan, with 144 million yuan in cash and 216 million yuan in shares, while raising 216 million yuan in supporting funds [1] - The revised acquisition price for Jiatou Group was adjusted down to 290 million yuan, and the total amount of supporting funds was reduced to no more than 174 million yuan [2] - The performance commitments for Jiatou Group were also lowered, with net profits for 2025 to 2027 set at no less than 30 million yuan, 34.5 million yuan, and 39.8 million yuan respectively [2] Group 2: Business Context - Jiatou Group specializes in real-time advertising trading system services and smart marketing services, serving major internet companies such as Alibaba, Meituan, JD.com, Pinduoduo, and Kuaishou [2] - Tiandi Online aims to expand its business scope into advertising trading and smart marketing services through this acquisition, enhancing its operational scale and market position [2] - Tiandi Online's main business is providing digital marketing services and integrated smart services to small and medium-sized enterprises, but its performance has been declining, with revenue dropping from 4.061 billion yuan in 2021 to 1.338 billion yuan in 2024 [3]

Group 1: Overall Strategy and Market Trends - The report highlights a dual-driven strategy where technology and cyclical sectors are rebalancing, with opportunities in the chemical industry emerging under the "anti-involution" trend [7][8] - The A-share market is experiencing accelerated capacity clearance, indicating a turning point for cyclical industries, particularly in chemicals, which show significant advantages over traditional sectors like steel and coal [8][9] - The chemical industry is expected to enter a new prosperity cycle driven by supply-demand recovery and anti-involution policies, with a notable decrease in capital expenditure and a resilient export market [9][10] Group 2: Industry-Specific Insights - The military industry is currently facing high valuations, with a PE-TTM of 67.34, indicating a slight decrease from previous weeks, while geopolitical uncertainties are expected to accelerate military orders [13][14] - The real estate sector shows signs of stabilization, with new home transaction areas increasing month-on-month, supported by government policies aimed at boosting investment and consumption [17][21] - The consumer services sector, particularly in tourism and dining, is witnessing a recovery, with companies like Ctrip and Haidilao reporting strong performance and expansion plans [24][25] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - Lenovo Group is benefiting from the Windows 11 upgrade cycle, with a projected non-GAAP net profit growth of 21.8% for FY2026, reflecting strong supply chain resilience [29][30] - NetEase is expected to see growth driven by overseas gaming expansion and new game launches, with a projected net profit increase of 31.8% in Q3 2025 [34][35] - Dawi Technology is focusing on AI data centers, with plans to enhance its competitive edge through strategic partnerships and infrastructure development [38][39]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the transition into the AI era, highlighting the need for media and content industries to adapt to new user demands and leverage AI for growth opportunities [3][4][5] - The cultural media sector is positioned for growth due to two main variables: the initiation of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the empowerment of AI technology, which is shifting from market-driven to policy-driven [4][7] - State-owned enterprises are expected to play a crucial role in the cultural media sector, with companies like Oriental Pearl and Mango TV being highlighted as key players benefiting from AI integration [6][11] Group 2 - The report outlines the performance of the cinema sector, noting that while 2025 saw some challenges, the upcoming 2026 year is expected to bring new content supply and potential growth [30][31] - The digital marketing and e-commerce sectors are experiencing a transformation driven by AI, with significant growth projected in the smart marketing space, expected to reach 1.49 trillion yuan by 2026 [55] - The gaming industry is highlighted as needing to focus on high-quality content production, with companies like miHoYo and Lilith Games being noted for their successful titles, indicating a shift towards content-driven gaming experiences [58][59] Group 3 - The report discusses the importance of long and short video platforms, with significant user engagement noted, particularly in the short video segment, which has reached 1.129 billion monthly active users [36][37] - The audio content market is projected to grow significantly, with the long audio market expected to reach 649.77 billion yuan by 2026, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards immersive audio experiences [40] - Companies like Bilibili and Xiaohongshu are expanding into audio content, which is expected to drive new user engagement and revenue streams [40][42] Group 4 - The report identifies key companies to watch in the cultural media sector, including state-owned enterprises and digital marketing firms, emphasizing their strategic importance in the evolving landscape [11][12] - The cinema sector is expected to see a rebound in 2026, with new film releases anticipated to drive box office performance, particularly following a low base effect from 2025 [30][31] - The gaming sector is under pressure to innovate and produce high-quality content, with a focus on new product launches and the integration of AI technologies to enhance user experiences [58][59]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market saw a rise in AI application stocks on November 3, with notable increases in share prices for several companies [1] Company Performance - 汇量科技 (HuiLiang Technology) experienced a rise of over 6% [1] - 美图 (Meitu) saw an increase of over 4% [1] - 金蝶国际 (Kingdee International) rose by over 3% [1] - 心动公司 (XD Inc.) and 金山软件 (Kingsoft) both increased by over 2% [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The Hong Kong internet sector is expected to experience short-term volatility influenced by US-China relations, policy expectations, and capital flows. Defensive allocations, such as in Hong Kong insurance or metals sectors, are recommended. The sector has seen a significant pullback, entering a value recovery phase, with a focus on companies with stable and exceeding expectations in their core businesses [1][4]. Company-Specific Insights Tencent - Tencent's Q3 performance is anticipated to exceed expectations in gaming and advertising, driven by operational leverage leading to EPS growth. Adjusted EPS is expected to be significantly above market consensus, with a gross margin increase of 2.5% year-on-year. Despite rising AI depreciation costs, business structure optimization and increased self-developed PC game contributions are expected to enhance operational leverage [5][6]. - Key business segments: - **Gaming**: Revenue growth driven by Delta and overseas games, with international business expected to grow by 30% year-on-year and domestic DAU reaching 30 million. - **Advertising**: AI-driven algorithm efficiency improvements and increased ad load in video channels are expected to boost revenue per thousand impressions (RPM) [5]. - The medium-term target price for Tencent is set at 740 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 15% from current levels [6]. Alibaba - Alibaba's Q3 performance shows its e-commerce revenue and profits falling short of expectations, with total revenue at 95 billion, below the anticipated 165 billion. The e-commerce segment is struggling due to limited effects from flash sales and significant losses estimated at around 35 billion [7][8]. - However, the cloud computing segment is expected to grow rapidly, with Q3 revenue growth projected at 30%, surpassing market expectations of 27.4%. Capital expenditures are forecasted to increase from 380 billion to 450 billion over the next three years, supporting this growth [9][10]. - Market sentiment towards Alibaba remains optimistic, with a valuation range of 150-160 HKD as a safety margin, potentially reaching 230 HKD under favorable conditions [11]. Kuaishou - Kuaishou's Q3 performance aligns with expectations, with e-commerce GMV growth likely maintaining at 15%. Despite challenges in advertising due to tightened online payment policies in Brazil, overall revenue growth is expected to meet guidance [12]. - Future catalysts for stock price appreciation include updates to its product offerings and AI enhancements to its homepage, which are anticipated to positively impact performance [12][13]. Bilibili - Bilibili's Q3 revenue met expectations, with profits exceeding forecasts, driven by game sales, particularly the success of "Escape from Ark" with sales surpassing 2 million units. The advertising segment is also showing strong growth, with a near 30% increase in ad revenue [16][17]. - The company is transitioning from losses to profitability, with a projected stable profit margin of 15%-20% in the long term. A valuation of 20 times PE is suggested, with a potential upside of around 30% [17][18]. Market Sentiment and Valuation - The market remains optimistic about leading internet companies, particularly Tencent and Bilibili, which are expected to outperform in the short term. The focus is on companies with strong catalysts and growth potential, with Bilibili noted for its significant elasticity in valuation [22][23].

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing significant volatility, highlighted by a record liquidation event on October 11, resulting in $19.2 billion in liquidations and affecting over 1.64 million traders [4][7][15] - The relationship between celebrities and cryptocurrency investments is under scrutiny, as evidenced by Jay Chou's public call-out of his former partner, Cai Weize, regarding a $3.2 million Bitcoin investment that has gone missing [1][5][7] - Various entertainment companies have had differing experiences in the cryptocurrency space, with some like Meitu successfully exiting with profits, while others like Boyaa Interactive continue to invest heavily despite market instability [8][11][10] Cryptocurrency Market Dynamics - The cryptocurrency market has shifted from being perceived as "absolutely safe" to facing increasing skepticism regarding its stability and security, particularly following high-profile incidents of fraud and theft [4][15][16] - The rise of leverage trading in the cryptocurrency market has exacerbated its volatility, leading to significant losses during downturns [15][18] - Major incidents, such as the "519 event" and the recent $19.2 billion liquidation, have raised concerns about the risk management practices within the cryptocurrency trading ecosystem [15][16] Company-Specific Developments - Meitu, a Hong Kong-listed company, reported a profit of approximately $79.63 million from its cryptocurrency investments, successfully liquidating its holdings in 2024 [11][14] - Boyaa Interactive, another publicly traded company, has significantly increased its Bitcoin holdings, with a reported market value of $226 million as of the end of 2024, despite facing declining revenues in its core gaming business [10][11] - Other companies, such as NetDragon and various entertainment firms, have also disclosed their cryptocurrency holdings, indicating a trend of diversification into digital assets within the entertainment sector [8][10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [10]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the valuation reassessment of AI in the internet sector (including cloud computing, chips, and applications) is ongoing, driven by both domestic and global factors [3]. - The competition for entry points in the AI application market is intensifying, which is crucial for the monetization of AI applications [3]. - Key recommendations include major players like Tencent, Alibaba, Baidu, and Bilibili, focusing on their AI capabilities and growth potential [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections AI and Internet Sector - The report highlights the importance of self-reliance in AI technology as emphasized in the recent political meetings in China [3]. - Upcoming earnings reports from major US tech companies are expected to influence global AI investment narratives [3]. - The strategic expansion of OpenAI and ByteDance into various applications is noted as a significant trend [3]. Gaming Sector - The gaming sector has seen a correction, with previous high expectations now adjusted, making valuations more attractive [3]. - Companies like Huya and Bilibili are highlighted for their growth potential in the gaming market, with specific titles performing well [3]. - The report notes the long lifecycle and profitability of SLG games, with cash flow supporting new business explorations [3]. E-commerce and Entertainment - Pop Mart's stock price volatility reflects differing views on IP lifecycle management, with expectations for sales growth in North America [3]. - Mango TV is seen as stabilizing, with upcoming content expected to drive revenue growth [3]. - The report anticipates potential for increased membership and advertising revenues driven by popular content [3]. Valuation Table - A detailed valuation table is provided, showing market capitalizations and revenue projections for key companies in the gaming, cloud computing, and entertainment sectors [5]. - For instance, Tencent's projected revenue for 2025 is 74.64 billion RMB, with a net profit of 25.56 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15% [5]. Key Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong AI capabilities and growth potential, including Tencent, Alibaba, Baidu, and Bilibili, among others [3]. - It also suggests monitoring the gaming sector for emerging opportunities, particularly in companies like Huya and Bilibili [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the internet media industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [10]. Core Insights - The AI value reassessment is ongoing, with significant emphasis on self-reliance in core technologies such as models and chips in China, and the upcoming earnings reports from major US tech companies are crucial for global AI investment narratives [2][10]. - The competition for entry points in the AI application market is intensifying, which is seen as key for monetizing AI applications at scale [2]. - The gaming sector has adjusted to previously high expectations, with notable valuation opportunities emerging, particularly for companies like Huatuo and Bilibili [2]. Summary by Sections AI Applications - The report highlights the strategic moves by companies like OpenAI and ByteDance in expanding their AI capabilities into e-commerce and video platforms, indicating a trend towards monetization through quality data accumulation [2]. - Key recommendations include Tencent (AI advertising, WeChat agent, AI gaming), Alibaba (cloud computing, e-commerce), Baidu (cloud services, autonomous driving), Kuaishou (AI advertising), Bilibili (AI advertising, video podcasting), and Meitu (AI design) [2]. Gaming Sector - The gaming sector is noted for its resilience, with Huatuo's games showing strong performance in the mobile gaming rankings, and the company is well-positioned for future growth with ample cash flow [2]. - Bilibili is highlighted for its potential in AI video and gaming, with recent game releases performing well [2]. Other Key Companies - The report discusses the fluctuating stock price of Pop Mart, indicating differing views on the lifecycle of its IP, while also noting the potential for sales growth in North America [2]. - Mango TV is in a bottoming phase but is expected to see operational improvements driven by content supply and advertising revenue [2]. - Other recommended companies include NetEase Cloud Music, Damai Entertainment, and Shanghai Film, with a focus on high-dividend stocks like Focus Media and Yangtze Media [2]. Valuation Table - A detailed valuation table is provided, showing market capitalizations and revenue projections for key companies, with Tencent Holdings valued at 53.258 billion RMB and projected revenues increasing from 6.603 billion RMB in 2024 to 8.280 billion RMB in 2026 [4].

Core Insights - The main topic of discussion in the ToB enterprise service sector for 2025 is the implementation of enterprise-level AI applications, particularly in the logistics industry, where previously unimaginable demands are now being met due to advancements in AI technology [1][2] - There are significant challenges in standardization and the integration of AI hardware and software, despite the potential for AI to transform logistics operations [1] Group 1: AI Implementation in Logistics - AI is expected to have a limited immediate impact on revenue in the logistics sector, but it is anticipated to significantly influence income in the near future [2][15] - G7 Yiliu's edge AI products are currently in trial phases, addressing previously unsupported demands such as monitoring unloading conditions and providing real-time weather updates for drivers [2][15] - The shift towards a "pay for results" model has increased clients' willingness to pay for software solutions, enhancing the value proposition of AI applications in logistics [2][19] Group 2: Comparison of AI Development in China and the US - There is a notable gap in foundational AI models between the US and China, with OpenAI having released GPT-5 while most Chinese models are still exploring the capabilities of version 3.5 [2][12] - In the application domain, many US ToB companies are already profitable, whereas Chinese companies face challenges in customer payment willingness, necessitating deeper application development from the outset [2][12] Group 3: Observations from Industry Leaders - Insights from discussions with industry leaders, such as the recognition of a bubble in the current robotics industry, highlight the limitations of existing robotic vision technologies [4][6] - The emergence of innovative products, such as the 2.5D printer from Anker, showcases the potential of combining AI with hardware to create new market opportunities [9][10] Group 4: Future Directions and Events - G7 Yiliu plans to showcase new AI products and services at the upcoming 2025 Digital Logistics Conference, focusing on the technological advancements and benefits AI can bring to the logistics sector [21]