投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 IICEREK 航运衍生品数据日报 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 卢钉毅 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind 投资咨询号: Z0021177 从业资格号: F03101843 2026/1/29 | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 | 中国出口集装箱运价 | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 综合指数SCFI | 指数CCFI | | | | | | 集 | 现值 | 1458 | 1209 | 2084 | 1294 | 2896 | 1595 | | | 前值 | 1574 | 1210 | 2194 | 1305 | 3163 | 1676 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | -7.39% | -0.09% | -5.01% | -0.84% | -8.44% | -4.83% | | # IE | | | | | | | | | | | SCFIS-西北欧 | SCFI-地中海 | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The EC spot - futures market is in a game situation intertwined with policies and geopolitical factors, showing a differentiation feature of short - term sentiment - driven and long - term fundamental support. The market has not formed a clear trend yet. Short - term trends are dominated by policy news and sentiment, while long - term trends depend on the global foreign trade recovery rhythm, capacity adjustment, and substantial improvement in terminal demand [8] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - The current values of Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, SCFI - Northwest Europe, SCFIS - Northwest Europe, and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1458, 1209, 2084, 1294, 2896, 1595, 1859, and 2756 respectively. The previous values are 1574, 1210, 2194, 1305, 3163, 1676, 1954, and 2983 respectively. The corresponding percentage changes are - 7.39%, - 0.09%, - 5.01%, - 0.84%, - 8.44%, - 4.83%, - 4.86%, and - 7.61% respectively [5] 3.2 Shipping Schedule - For CMA CGM's shipping schedules, on the European line FAL1, the last east - bound return ship passing through the Suez Canal is CMA CGM BENJAMIN FRANKLIN (expected to pass on February 1st with OMIT detour), and the first ship to resume east - bound return through the Suez Canal on April 6th is CMA CGM VASCO DE GAMA, corresponding to the Ocean Alliance's new annual Day10 route plan starting from April. On the European line FAL3, the last east - bound return ship is CMA CGM SEINE (expected to pass on January 25th) with no resumption plan. On the Mediterranean line MEX, the last east - bound return ship is CMA CGM GRACE BAY (expected to pass on January 22nd) with no resumption plan [5][6] 3.3 Market News - The additional tariffs on eight European countries are temporarily not imposed. US President Trump is preparing to hold a "Peace Committee Charter Signing Ceremony" during the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, marking the mechanism's transition from concept to public launch [6] 3.4 Spot Price - The current 40 - foot container freight rates on the European line are as follows: GEMINI Alliance's Maersk quotes $2430 in Week 5, Hapag - Lloyd quotes $2300 - $2500; OA Alliance quotes about $2500 - $2650, CMA CGM quotes $2793, and others are around $2600; PA Alliance quotes about $2400, Yang Ming quotes as low as $2200 - $2435; MSC quotes $2640. In the next one or two weeks (end of January - early February), Maersk's Week 6 opening price drops to $2000 - $2100, Hapag - Lloyd maintains $2300 - $2500, OA Alliance may slightly drop to around $2500, PA Alliance may fluctuate in the range of $2200 - $2400, and MSC may slightly adjust downward with the market, showing a pre - holiday decline due to the pre - Spring Festival cargo volume vacuum period [7] 3.5 Market Analysis - The futures market is initially pushed up by short - term sentiment but then corrects due to weakened spot support and calmed sentiment. The far - month contracts are more resilient. The spot market is in a balance between shipping companies' price adjustments and supply - demand games. Some shipping companies lower short - term prices to compete for cargo volume. The market is affected by three variables: short - term rush - shipping expectations from photovoltaic export tax - rebate policy adjustments, Red Sea resumption expectations from geopolitical easing, and the differentiated economic recovery in the Eurozone [8] 3.6 Strategy - The cost - effectiveness of short - term shorting is reduced. Pay attention to shorting on rallies during the off - season [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the transportation industry [2] Core Views - The shipping sector is experiencing high oil tanker rates and improving bulk freight rates, while the express delivery industry is expected to see a growth rate of 13.6% year-on-year in 2025 [1][6][19] Shipping - Oil tanker rates remain high, influenced by geopolitical tensions, with the market sentiment showing signs of volatility [6][12] - The dry bulk shipping market is showing signs of improvement, with increased inquiries from Australian miners and rising grain prices from South America [14][15] - Key stocks to focus on include COSCO Shipping Energy, China Merchants Energy, Haitong Development, and Pacific Shipping [6][15] Infrastructure - Weekly data shows a slight increase in truck traffic, with 56.12 million vehicles recorded, a 1.87% increase week-on-week, but a 1.6% decrease year-on-year [16][17] - Port throughput reached 261.318 million tons, a 6.2% increase year-on-year, while container throughput increased by 7.5% [16][17] - Recommended stocks include Anhui Expressway, which is seen as a stable cash flow asset with low current valuations [17] Express Delivery - The express delivery industry saw a total volume of 199 billion items in 2025, a 13.6% increase year-on-year, with December showing a 2.3% increase [18][19] - The competitive landscape is expected to stabilize, with major companies like SF Express and ZTO Express showing potential for profit growth in 2026 [19] - Recommended stocks include SF Express, ZTO Express, and YTO Express [19] Aviation - The aviation sector is currently in a transitional phase due to the Spring Festival timing, with passenger numbers showing a 9.9% year-on-year decrease [20][21] - The industry is expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics and lower fuel prices in 2026 [21] - Key metrics to monitor include passenger volume and ticket pricing trends during the Spring Festival [21] Logistics - The logistics sector is seeing fluctuations in air freight prices, with a recent decrease of 2% week-on-week but a 7.4% increase year-on-year [22]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 II GER期货 航运衍生品数据日报 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 投资咨询号: Z0021177 卢钉毅 2026/1/23 从业资格号: F03101843 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 综合指数SCFI | 中国出口集装箱运价 指数CCFI | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 现值 | 1574 | 1210 | 2194 | | 3163 | | | 集 | | | | | 1305 | | 1676 | | | 前值 | 1647 | 1195 | 2218 | 1323 | 3128 | 1719 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | -4.45% | 1.25% | -1.08% | -1.36% | 1.12% | -2.50% | | pr T | | SCFIS-西北欧 | SCFI-地中海 | | | | | | 数 | | | | | | ...

FICC日报 | 2026-01-21 静态供给：交付现状层面，截至2025年12月31日。2025年至今交付集装箱船舶268艘，合计交付运力215.5万TEU。 12000-16999TEU船舶合计交付80艘，合计121.3万TEU；17000+TEU以上船舶交付13艘，合计277672TEU。交付预 期层面，12000-16999TEU船舶：2026年交付78.12万TEU（53艘），2027年交付94.45万TEU（64艘），2028年交付121.2 万TEU（82艘），2029年交付41.54万TEU（29艘）。 17000+TEU船舶： 2026年交付21.04万TEU（9艘），2027年交付86.28万TEU（40艘），2028年交付157.34万TEU（78 艘）,2029年交付137.55万TEU（67艘）。总体来看，2026年超大型船舶交付压力相对较小，2027年、2028年以及2029 年17000+TEU船舶年度交付量均超过40艘。2026年上半年交付17000+TEU以上船舶仅4艘。 动态供给：1月份月度剩余2周均运力34.22万TEU，WEEK4/5周运力分别为40.86/27.58 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The container shipping index (European route) is currently in a temporary consolidation phase, influenced by factors such as the accelerating decline of spot prices and the uncertainty in geopolitical situations. The market is affected by different factors in terms of supply (capacity), demand, and geopolitical risks, leading to different outlooks for various contracts. [1][10][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Performance - Yesterday, the container shipping index (European route) showed weak consolidation. The main contract 2604 closed at 1112.6 points, with a 77 - hand reduction in positions and a decline of 1.44%. The secondary main contract 2606 closed at 1317.4 points, with a 273 - hand reduction in positions and a decline of 0.33%. [1][9] 3.2 Capacity Analysis - The shipping schedules on the AEU7 and FE4 routes at the end of January were generally delayed. After adjustment, the capacity statistics for the 5th week (1/26 - 2/1) increased by 2 blank sailings, and the capacity statistics for February (2/2 - 3/1) decreased by 2 blank sailings. Overall, the capacity from 1/26 - 3/1 remained unchanged. In March, there were 8 blank sailings and 1 pending sailing. The weekly average capacity was revised up from 28.4 to 29.5 TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 9.5% and a month - on - month increase of 5.2%. [10] - The Spring Festival suspension of shipping was mainly concentrated from the end of February to the first week of March. The average capacities before, during, and after the Spring Festival in 2026 were 30.6, 23.4, and 32.2 TEU, with year - on - year growth rates of - 0.1%, 9.1%, and 26.3% respectively. The capacity pressure after the festival was relatively higher. [10] 3.3 Geopolitical Situation - The instability in Iran has increased, and the geopolitical risks in the Middle East may fluctuate. Maersk announced that its independently operated MECL route connecting the East Coast of the United States and India/Middle East will resume structural operations at the end of January and has prepared contingency plans. After the market closed yesterday, CMA CGM decided to divert east - bound vessels on the FAL1, FAL3, and MEX routes around the Cape of Good Hope instead of passing through the Suez Canal. [11] 3.4 Demand Side - On January 8, 2026, China adjusted the export VAT rebate policy. The export rebate for photovoltaic products will be completely cancelled from April 1, 2026, and the export rebate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6% from April 1 to December 31, 2026, and completely cancelled from January 1, 2027. This may lead to 2 - 5 TEU of transportation demand for European routes and 4 - 7 TEU for European - Mediterranean routes being advanced from Q2 to Q1. The concentrated rush for shipping is expected to occur from late February to March. However, it is unlikely to change the oversupply situation in March. [12] 3.5 Spot Freight Rates - The FAK average in the 4th week may be around $2600/FEU. The Maersk's European base container prices in the 5th and 6th weeks decreased by about $700/FEU in total. Different alliances and shipping companies also had varying degrees of price adjustments. [13] 3.6 Contract Analysis - For the 2602 contract, the valuation may be around 1700 points, and it is expected to have narrow - range position - reducing fluctuations in the future. - For the 2604 contract, although there is a marginal positive impact from the rush of photovoltaic and battery product shipments in the first quarter, it cannot reverse the weak supply - demand balance in the off - season from March to April. It is recommended to consider rolling short positions in the next 1 - 2 months, with the upper pressure level in the range of 1200 - 1250 points. - For the 2606 contract, the short - term influencing factor is the resumption rhythm. If it fails to resume in June, it may be a relatively good long - position contract. It may have a small premium in the short - term and remain in a consolidation phase in the medium - term. It should be treated with a wide - range consolidation strategy. - For the 2610 contract, the upper pressure level refers to the settlement price of 1161 points for the 2510 contract. Short positions can be held as appropriate, and attention should be paid to the peace negotiations in Gaza and the geopolitical situation in Iran. [14][15] 3.7 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of the container shipping index (European route) is 0, indicating a neutral position. [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - MSC's online prices in February remain the same as in January, and the focus is on Maersk's WEEK6 quotation. The SCFIS at the beginning of February is an important point of contention for the settlement price of the February contract. The cargo volume in December and January is at a relatively high level within the year. The delivery of ultra-large vessels in 2026 has relatively less pressure, while the annual delivery volume of vessels over 17,000 TEU in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships. The cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic products may disrupt the off - season nature of the 04 contract, and the volatility of the 04 contract is expected to increase. Maersk's attempt to resume navigation through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal will affect the expectations of more distant - month contracts. The 2 - month contract is expected to fluctuate, and the 4 - month contract is driven by a bearish trend [1][2][3][4][6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Futures Price - As of January 19, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European route) futures is 62,201.00 lots, and the daily trading volume is 36,458.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2612 contracts are 1714.30, 1132.20, 1318.00, 1459.00, 1054.10, and 1300.00 respectively [7]. II. Spot Price - Online quotations from different shipping alliances are provided, including the prices of Maersk, HPL, MSC, ONE, HMM, CMA, EMC, and OOCL for different time periods from Shanghai to Rotterdam. The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price on January 16 is 1676 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price is 2194 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price is 3165 US dollars/FEU. The SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on January 19 is 1954.19 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 1305.27 points [1][7]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU. For 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, 80 ships have been delivered with a total capacity of 1.213 million TEU; for ships over 17,000 TEU, 13 ships have been delivered with a total capacity of 277,672 TEU. The expected delivery of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships from 2026 - 2029 is 781,200 TEU (53 ships), 944,500 TEU (64 ships), 1.212 million TEU (82 ships), and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) respectively. The expected delivery of ships over 17,000 TEU from 2026 - 2029 is 210,400 TEU (9 ships), 862,800 TEU (40 ships), 1.5734 million TEU (78 ships), and 1.3755 million TEU (67 ships) respectively [2][3]. - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly capacity in January is 342,200 TEU, with the capacities in WEEK4 and WEEK5 being 408,600 TEU and 275,800 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in February is 273,700 TEU, and the capacities in WEEK6, WEEK7, WEEK8, and WEEK9 are 255,800 TEU, 325,200 TEU, 292,100 TEU, and 221,800 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in March is 289,700 TEU. There are 2 TBNs and 8 blank sailings in February and 5 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in March [3]. IV. Supply Chain - Not provided with specific analysis content in the given text, only figure references are given V. Demand and European Economy - Not provided with specific analysis content in the given text, only figure references are given 4. Strategy - **Unilateral**: The 2 - month contract is expected to fluctuate, and the 4 - month contract is driven by a bearish trend [8]. - **Arbitrage**: None at present [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The集运指数（欧线）is in a temporary volatile market. Although the first quarter has marginal positive factors from the rush - shipping of photovoltaic and battery products, it cannot reverse the weak supply - demand balance in the off - season of the European line from March to April. Different strategies are recommended for different contracts, such as rolling short - selling for the 2604 contract, and treating the 2606 contract as a wide - range volatile market [10][11][13][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: The 2604 contract of the集运指数（欧线）closed at 1132.2 points yesterday, down 1.77% with a reduction of 744 lots in positions; the 2606 contract closed at 1318.0 points, down 2.33% with an increase of 420 lots in positions [10]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: The average FAK in the 4th week may be around $2600/FEU. Different shipping companies and alliances have different price trends, with most showing a downward or stable - to - downward trend [14]. 3.2 Capacity Side - **Capacity Adjustment**: The shipping schedules of the AEU7 and FE4 routes at the end of January are generally delayed. The capacity statistics in the 5th week (1/26 - 2/1) increased by 2 blank sailings, and the capacity statistics in February (2/2 - 3/1) decreased by 2 blank sailings. The weekly average capacity in March was revised up from 28.4 to 29.5 million TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 9.5% and a month - on - month increase of 5.2% [11]. - **Capacity Distribution around Spring Festival**: The Spring Festival suspension of shipping is mainly concentrated from the end of February to the first week of March. The average capacity before, during, and after the Spring Festival in 2026 is 30.6, 23.4, and 32.2 million TEU/week respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of - 0.1%, 9.1%, and 26.3% respectively, indicating greater capacity pressure after the festival [11]. 3.3 Geopolitical Side - The unstable situation in Iran has risen, and the geopolitical risks in the Middle East may fluctuate. Maersk announced that its independently operated MECL route connecting the US East and India/Middle East will resume structural operations at the end of January and has prepared contingency plans [12]. 3.4 Demand Side - **Policy Impact**: The adjustment of export VAT rebate policies for photovoltaic and battery products may lead to 2 - 5 million TEU of transportation demand for the European line and 4 - 7 million TEU for the Europe - Mediterranean route being advanced from Q2 to Q1. The concentrated rush - shipping may occur from the end of February to March [13]. - **Loading Rate Concern**: The capacity level from February 23 to March 8 is relatively low, with an average of 20.1 million TEU/week. Attention should be paid to the loading rate during these two weeks. The probability of full - load and shipping companies announcing a GRI increase on March 1 is low, and it is difficult to change the over - capacity pattern in March [13]. 3.5 Contract Strategies - **2602 Contract**: The valuation may be around 1700 points. It is expected to have narrow - range, position - reducing fluctuations in the future [15]. - **2604 Contract**: Although there are marginal positive factors in the first quarter, the weak supply - demand balance in the off - season cannot be reversed. It can be considered for rolling short - selling in the next 1 - 2 months, with the upper pressure level in the range of 1200 - 1250 points [15]. - **2606 Contract**: It is expected to maintain a wide - range volatile trend, and the trading strategy should be based on this wide - range volatility [15]. - **2610 Contract**: Short positions can be held as appropriate, and attention should be paid to the progress of the Gaza peace negotiation and the geopolitical situation in Iran [16]. 3.6 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of the集运指数（欧线）is 0, indicating a neutral trend [17].

Group 1 - Bosch CEO confirmed that the company's sales for 2025 are expected to be around €91 billion, failing to meet targets, with actual revenue declining after excluding acquisition impacts [1] - The company's profit margin is significantly below 2%, far from the long-term target of 7%, attributed to tariffs and restructuring costs, with profitability goals expected to be achieved only after 2027 [1] Group 2 - Ten major brokerages have differing views on the A-share spring market outlook, but most believe there is still upward potential after short-term fluctuations [2] - The focus will shift to fundamental verification during the earnings disclosure period starting in late January, with attention on technology (AI hardware, applications, semiconductors) and cyclical sectors (non-ferrous metals, chemicals) [2] Group 3 - MSC continues its expansion strategy by acquiring at least 8 second-hand container ships in December, including a premium purchase from a Chinese shipowner [3] - This highlights MSC's strategy of exchanging capital for delivery certainty, while sellers successfully lock in substantial profit margins amid a tight second-hand ship market [3] Group 4 - The price of lithium carbonate has experienced significant volatility, yet upstream lithium battery companies remain confident in production expansion due to resource security and circular economy strategies [4][19] - Companies are optimistic about the future growth potential in energy storage and solid-state batteries, anticipating a balance in supply and demand by 2026 [19] Group 5 - The domestic pizza brand, Bige Catering, is pushing for an IPO with nearly ¥1.4 billion in revenue over the first three quarters of 2025, showing significant year-on-year growth [18] - The company, controlled by the founding couple, aims to open hundreds of new stores within three years to reach a target of 1,000 locations, although it faces challenges in southern market penetration [18] Group 6 - The National Energy Administration reported that China's total electricity consumption surpassed 10 trillion kilowatt-hours for the first time in 2025, reflecting a 5% year-on-year growth [21] - This growth is primarily driven by the tertiary industry and residential electricity use, indicating a robust economic performance and a shift towards high-tech and green low-carbon industries [21] Group 7 - SAIC Motor Corporation's profit forecast for 2025 indicates a staggering 438% to 558% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, yet the stock price remains stagnant, highlighting a mismatch between market value and performance [22] - The company faces challenges in market perception and must enhance its core business profitability to improve its market valuation [22] Group 8 - The State Grid's investment plan of ¥4 trillion during the 14th Five-Year Plan focuses on building a smart green power system, expected to drive significant growth in the power equipment industry [24] - This initiative is anticipated to benefit leading companies in transformers, power automation, and energy storage, aligning with global energy transition trends [24]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The container shipping index (European Line) is expected to oscillate weakly. The 2602 contract is recommended for observation, the 2604 contract can consider rolling short positions, and the 2610 contract should hold short positions lightly and short on rallies in the medium - to - long - term. The trend strength of the container shipping index (European Line) is -1 [11][15]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Market Performance - The main 2604 contract of the container shipping index (European Line) closed at 1202.7 points, with an increase of 788 lots in positions and a decline of 0.07%. The secondary main 2602 contract closed at 1719.0 points, with a decrease of 1583 lots in positions and a rise of 0.5% [11]. 2. Fundamental Data 2.1 Futures Data | Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | Trading Volume/Open Interest (Yesterday) | Trading Volume/Open Interest (Day before Yesterday) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2602 | 1719.0 | 0.50% | 2673 | 8878 | -1583 | 0.30 | 0.54 | | EC2604 | 1202.7 | -0.07% | 40524 | 40832 | 788 | 0.99 | 1.13 | [1] 2.2 Freight Rate Index Data - SCFIS: European route was 1956.39 points, with a weekly increase of 8.9%; US West route was 1323.98 points, with a weekly increase of 5.9%. - SCFI: European route was $1719/TEU, with a bi - weekly increase of 1.7%; US West route was $2218/FEU, with a bi - weekly increase of 1.4% [1]. 2.3 Spot Freight Data - Different carriers' shipping prices from Shanghai to Rotterdam in the short - term European line vary. For example, Maersk's $/40'GP is 2420 and $/20'GP is 1510 [1]. 2.4 Exchange Rate Data - The US dollar index was 99.35, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 6.97 [1]. 3. Capacity Analysis - In January, the weekly average capacity was 30.9 million TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.4%. In February, the weekly average capacity was revised down to 27.1 million TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 17.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.5%. In March, the weekly average capacity was 28.4 million TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% and a month - on - month increase of 5%. The Spring Festival suspension is mainly concentrated from the second half of February to the first week of March. The average capacities before, during, and after the Spring Festival in 2026 were 31.3, 22.1, and 30.7 million TEU/week respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of 2.3%, 3.3%, and 20.4%. The capacity pressure after the festival is relatively greater [12]. 4. Geopolitical Situation - Hamas officials are ready to transfer their responsibilities to the Palestinian technocratic institution. Trump is closely monitoring the situation in Iran and keeping all options open. Maersk's MECL route will resume structural operation at the end of January and has a contingency plan [13]. 5. Demand Analysis - In January, most shipping companies felt that the BCO/NVO cargo volume was good, but the FAK side was average. The peak of cargo volume usually occurs around mid - January and then declines. The Ministry of Finance's tax - refund policy adjustment is expected to boost the overall demand for container shipping (European Line) from January to March and have a negative impact on demand after April [14]. 6. Spot Freight Forecast - It is expected that the average FAK from the 3rd to 4th week will be adjusted down to the range of $2600 - 2670/FEU, which will set the first - phase delivery settlement price of the 2602 contract on January 26 [14]. 7. Strategy Suggestions - For the 2602 contract, the valuation center may fall in the range of 1700 - 1750 points, and it is recommended to wait and see. For the 2604 contract, although there is a marginal benefit of the rush - shipping of photovoltaic and battery products in the first quarter, it cannot reverse the weak supply - demand balance in the off - season from March to April, and it can consider rolling short positions, with the upper pressure level referring to the range of 1200 - 1250 points. For the 2610 contract, hold short positions lightly and short on rallies in the medium - to - long - term, with the upper pressure level referring to the delivery settlement price of 1161 points of the 2510 contract [15].