随着人工智能数据中心对铜的需求预期飙升，加上美国以外地区的铜供应紧张，铜价正逼近每吨12,000 美元大关。 铜因其卓越的导电性而备受青睐，铜电线在为数据中心、电动汽车以及能源转型所需基础设施供电的电 网中至关重要。 包括风能和太阳能等可再生能源技术在内的能源转型预计也将提振铜需求。 麦格理预计，今年全球铜需求量将达到2,700万吨，比2024年增长2.7%，其中全球最大金属消费国中国 的需求量将增长3.7%。麦格理预测，明年除中国以外的全球铜需求量将增长3%。 麦格理分析师Alice Fox表示："市场看涨情绪主要受供应紧张的预期驱动，宏观经济新闻也起到了支撑 作用。" **美国铜价吸引交易商** 包括9月份自由港麦克莫兰公司位于印尼的巨型格拉斯伯格铜矿发生的事故在内的供应中断，以及嘉能 可等矿业公司下调2026年的产量指导，进一步加剧了市场对供应紧张的预期。 受采矿业中断和美国库存增加的影响，铜价今年迄今已上涨35%，并有望创下2009年以来的最大涨幅。 周五，铜价一度触及每吨11,952美元纪录新高。 "希望投资多种人工智能相关资产的投资者也会购买包含数据中心所需硬资产的金融产品，"Benchmark ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that European copper mining stocks are poised for their best annual performance since 2016, driven by rising U.S. copper futures prices and expectations for continued growth in copper demand [1][4] - Citigroup analysts favor Glencore as a top stock pick for 2026, predicting a 15% increase in its share price over the next 12 months due to efforts to boost copper production [1] - Oddo BHF highlights Rio Tinto's attractive development roadmap in copper, particularly with its Simandou project in Guinea expected to enhance iron ore production [1] Group 2 - The Stoxx 600 basic resources index has risen 22% year-to-date, ranking third among sectors in European stock markets, indicating strong investor sentiment in mining stocks [2] - Analysts warn that a significant slowdown in the Asian economy could negatively impact market sentiment, despite a positive outlook for copper in 2026 [2] - LME copper prices have increased over 30% this year, primarily driven by strong demand and a weakening U.S. dollar, which makes copper cheaper for investors holding other currencies [4] Group 3 - The construction of AI data centers by major companies like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta is creating explosive demand for copper, particularly for power transmission and high-performance electronic systems [5] - Analysts from Capital.Com support the bullish outlook for copper and silver, citing supply shortages and rising demand, but caution that economic growth concerns in Europe or Asia could pressure the broader mining market [5] - Diversified mining giants with strong balance sheets, such as Glencore and Rio Tinto, are seen as having a competitive advantage in 2026 due to their sensitivity to copper futures prices [6] Group 4 - Barclays has upgraded global mining stocks to "overweight," citing strong momentum in metal prices and favorable profit outlooks, alongside expectations for further easing from the Federal Reserve [6] - European investors currently have a net overweight position in the mining sector, the first positive reading since June, reflecting growing optimism [9] - UBS analysts recommend copper, aluminum, and lithium as metals likely to outperform market benchmarks due to supply constraints and increasing demand from energy, AI data centers, and the global defense industry [9]

Core Viewpoint - Silver has recently surpassed $60 per ounce for the first time in history, driven by global supply constraints and strong demand from industrial users and investors, marking a shift in investor focus from gold to silver and copper as preferred precious metals [3][6][9]. Group 1: Silver Market Dynamics - Since January, silver prices have more than doubled, with a significant supply shortage exacerbated by strong demand from industrial users and investors [6]. - The London Metal Exchange (LME) has experienced historic supply shortages in the silver futures market, with U.S. stockpiling further intensifying shortages in other regions [6][7]. - Current silver inventories on the New York Commodity Exchange are approximately 456 million ounces, three times the historical average [6]. Group 2: Investor Behavior and Trends - Institutional and retail investors are increasingly favoring silver over gold, with significant inflows into silver ETFs, surpassing those of gold ETFs [10]. - The average trading volume of micro silver futures contracts has reached its highest level since mid-October, indicating heightened retail interest [10]. - A notable surge in speculative options trading has occurred, with large volumes of call options being traded, reflecting bullish sentiment towards silver prices [10][11]. Group 3: Copper Market Outlook - Similar to silver, copper prices have accelerated due to U.S. stockpiling, with expectations of continued supply shortages driven by demand from AI data centers and clean energy projects [12][13]. - The average premium for copper remains around $330 per ton, despite a significant drop from previous quarters [12]. - Analysts predict that copper prices will continue to rise, with optimistic forecasts suggesting an average price of $13,000 per ton in the second quarter of next year, up from earlier predictions [13].

2025年倒数之际，白银和铜取代黄金成为投资者押注最大的两个贵金属。 蒙特利尔银行（BMO）的大宗商品分析师阿莫斯（Helen Amos）表示："我们预计大部分地区的白银供应紧张将持续 下去。"她补充称，散户投资者眼下也在追捧白银走高，特别是在北美地区，白银通常被称为"穷人的黄金"。 白银、铜取代黄金成为投资者最大押注 除了触及历史新高，随着2026年的临近，白银和铜已取代黄金成为热门金属交易品种，机构与散户交易者正为创纪录 的上涨行情布局。 白银价格年内大部分涨幅集中在过去两个月。Marex Group的分析师埃德·梅尔（Ed Meir）表示，银价反弹期间波动性 加剧。从图表来看，此次反弹的抛物线形态比以往更为陡峭，买盘更加集中，且持续时间大幅缩短。 由于全球供应紧缩，以及套利交易需求，白银本周稍早史上首次突破60美元/盎司。2025年倒数之际，白银和铜近期 取代黄金，成为投资者押注最大的两个贵金属。 "穷人的黄金" 自1月以来，白银价格年内已经翻了一番多。在多年供应不足的情况下，叠加工业用户和投资者强劲需求，10月白银 供应短缺加剧，出现严重的供应紧缩，伦敦金属交易所（LME）基准白银期货市场遭遇历史性供 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [6] - Arbitrage: Suspended [6] - Options: Short put [6] 2. Core View of the Report After the interest rate meeting, the Fed's 25 - basis - point rate cut met expectations. After the 15th delivery, the spot tightness may ease. High copper prices have led to strong downstream wait - and - see sentiment, so it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see attitude towards copper prices for now [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes On December 11, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 92,250 yuan/ton and closed at 92,210 yuan/ton, a 0.39% change from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 92,700 yuan/ton and closed at 94,080 yuan/ton, a 1.95% increase from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation According to SMM, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 50 to a premium of 60 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 5 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan drop from the previous day. The spot price ranged from 92,400 to 92,930 yuan/ton. Due to high copper prices approaching the downstream psychological threshold, market purchasing sentiment weakened, and with the year - end delivery approaching, sellers' willingness to sell increased. The premium of high - quality copper dropped from 80 yuan in the morning to 30 yuan. Non - registered copper had a large discount of 300 yuan due to scrap copper substitution. Although there may be some restocking demand on Friday, overall transaction prices will still be under pressure [2]. Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: In the US job market, the number of initial jobless claims last week increased by 44,000 to 236,000, the highest increase since March 2020. As of the week ending November 29, the number of continued jobless claims dropped to 1.84 million, the largest single - week drop in four years. The US trade deficit in September narrowed by nearly 11% month - on - month to $52.8 billion, significantly lower than the market expectation of $63.3 billion, the lowest since June 2020. Exports rose 3%, reaching the second - highest level in history, while imports only increased by 0.6% [3]. - **Mine End**: On December 10, Solis Minerals Limited announced that its 100% - owned Cinto copper project in southern Peru obtained a drilling permit. To lock in high - quality drilling targets, Solis completed a series of pre - exploration work. Drilling rig entry and platform preparation will start in December 2025. Chile's Codelco's copper production in October was 111,000 tons, a 14.3% year - on - year decrease; BHP's Escondida copper mine's production in October was 120,600 tons, an 11.7% year - on - year increase; the Collahuasi copper mine's production in October was 35,000 tons, a 29.3% year - on - year decrease [4]. - **Smelting and Import**: On December 11, the US CFTC adjusted the schedule for releasing position reports for the remaining time in 2025. After resuming normal operations, it will release reports in chronological order, and the first report was released on November 19 (early morning of November 20, Beijing time) [4]. - **Consumption**: In November 2025, China's domestic copper tube production was 138,300 tons, a 13.55% increase from October. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate in November was 59.69%, a 7.12% increase from the previous month. The increase in household air - conditioner production in November was due to longer production cycles and market demand support during key nodes [5]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 700 tons to 165,850 tons compared to the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 2,530 tons to 31,461 tons. On December 11, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 163,000 tons, a change of 2,700 tons from the previous week [5]. Copper Price and Basis Data | Time | 2025 - 12 - 12 | 2025 - 12 - 11 | 2025 - 12 - 05 | 2025 - 11 - 12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot (Premium/Discount) - SMM: 1 Copper | 5 | 30 | 170 | 55 | | Premium Copper | 45 | 80 | 240 | 120 | | Flat - water Copper | - 25 | - 10 | 120 | 5 | | Wet - process Copper | - 75 | - 50 | 15 | - 55 | | Yangshan Premium | 48 | 48 | 48 | 46 | | LME (0 - 3) | 12 | 0 | 88 | - 15 | | Inventory - LME | 165,850 | 164,975 | 162,825 | 136,250 | | Inventory - SHFE | 88,905 | | 97,930 | | | Inventory - COMEX | 403,848 | 401,925 | 393,975 | 337,749 | | Warehouse Receipt - SHFE | 31,461 | 28,931 | 32,139 | 42,964 | | LME Cancelled Warehouse Receipt Ratio | 39.64% | 38.09% | 35.08% | 8.60% | | Arbitrage - CU2603 - CU2512 (Continuous Three - Near Month) | 110 | | 130 | 50 | | Arbitrage - CU2602 - CU2601 (Main - Near Month) | 30 | | 70 | 20 | | CU2602/AL260 | 4.20 | 4.19 | 4.12 | 4.00 | | CU2602/ZN260 | 4.01 | 3.98 | 3.98 | 3.82 | | Import Profit | - 1162 | - 946 | - 1621 | - 723 | | Shanghai - London Ratio (Main) | 7.79 | | 7.95 | 7.96 | 7.99 | [24][25][26][27]

日期 2025 年 12 月 12 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 行业 铜期货日报 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 铜价上涨，隔夜美联储如期降息 25BP，市场情绪受到提振，铜价上涨，沪铜主力 最高涨至 9.3 万，但日内随着 A 股开盘后持续走弱，市场抛售情绪增加带动铜价 回落。现货涨 965 至 92665，现货升水跌 25 至 5，临近年末持货商抛售情绪增加， 叠加 12 合约即将结束，现货升水快速下行。周内社库再度累库 0.27 万吨，高铜 价抑 ...

Market Overview - The main copper futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened at 92,250 CNY/ton and closed at 92,210 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.39% from the previous trading day. The night session saw the contract open at 92,700 CNY/ton and close at 94,080 CNY/ton, an increase of 1.95% [2][11]. Spot Market - The SMM 1 electrolytic copper spot price ranged from a discount of 50 to a premium of 60 CNY/ton, with an average premium of 5 CNY/ton, down 25 CNY from the previous day. The price range was 92,400 to 92,930 CNY/ton. Market purchasing sentiment weakened as copper prices approached psychological thresholds, and sellers increased their willingness to sell as year-end delivery approached [3][12]. Macroeconomic Insights - In the U.S. job market, initial jobless claims surged by 44,000 to 236,000, the highest increase since March 2020. However, continuing claims fell to 1.84 million, marking the largest single-week decline in four years. Additionally, the U.S. trade deficit narrowed significantly by nearly 11% to 52.8 billion USD in September, well below the expected 63.3 billion USD, the lowest since June 2020 [4][13]. Mining Developments - Solis Minerals Limited announced that its Cinto copper project in southern Peru has received drilling permits, paving the way for anticipated drilling in the coming weeks. The project is located near the Toquepala copper mine and is part of a significant geological system in southern Peru. Drilling preparations are set to begin in December 2025 [5][14]. - Chile's national copper company, Codelco, reported a copper production of 111,000 tons in October, a year-on-year decrease of 14.3%. In contrast, BHP's Escondida mine produced 120,600 tons, an increase of 11.7% year-on-year, while the Collahuasi mine saw a production drop of 29.3% to 35,000 tons [5][14]. Consumption Trends - According to Mysteel, domestic copper tube production in November 2025 reached 138,300 tons, an increase of 16,500 tons or 13.55% from October. The overall capacity utilization rate was 59.69%, up 7.12% month-on-month. The increase in production was supported by extended production cycles and demand from key market events [7][16]. Inventory and Warehouse Data - LME warehouse stocks decreased by 700 tons to 165,850 tons, while SHFE warehouse stocks increased by 2,530 tons to 31,461 tons. As of December 11, domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory stood at 163,000 tons, a slight increase of 2,700 tons from the previous week [7][16]. Strategy Outlook - The overall strategy for copper is neutral. Following the Federal Reserve's expected 25 basis point rate cut, the tightness in the spot market may ease post-delivery on the 15th. However, high copper prices have led to cautious sentiment among downstream buyers, suggesting a wait-and-see approach for the time being [8][17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - After the Fed's interest rate cut, the US dollar index fell, and commodities generally strengthened, with gold, silver, and copper rising significantly, while oil prices continued to adjust under the expectation of loose supply and demand. In China, the central economic work conference emphasized "seeking progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency," and the policy in 2026 will still focus on "stability" [2][3]. - The continued strengthening of the interest rate cut expectation supported the rise of precious metals, and the silver price reached a new high. The central economic work conference released positive signals, and the copper price is expected to continue to run strongly at a high level in the short term. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to inventory reduction, while the alumina price continues to be weak due to oversupply [4][6][8]. - The zinc price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the tightening of zinc ore supply and the decline of social inventory. The lead price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate due to low inventory and differentiated consumption. The tin price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to favorable fundamentals [12][13][14]. - The industrial silicon price is expected to decline weakly due to the weakening of demand. The steel price is expected to fluctuate due to general industrial data. The iron ore price is expected to be under pressure due to strong supply and weak demand. The double - coke price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to the weakening of demand in the off - season [16][17][18]. - The soybean meal futures are expected to stop falling and stabilize and enter a shock operation due to good soybean auction results. The palm oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range due to the rise of rapeseed oil and the expected increase in palm oil inventory [21][24]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomics - Overseas: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 44,000 to 236,000, the largest single - week increase in four and a half years. The stock market showed a differentiated trend, and the US dollar index fell to 98.1 after the Fed's interest rate cut [2]. - Domestic: The central economic work conference emphasized "seeking progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency," and the policy in 2026 will still focus on "stability." The A - share market fell on Thursday, and the bond market continued to rebound and repair [3]. Precious Metals - On Thursday, international precious metal futures continued to rise. COMEX gold futures rose 2.00% to $4309.30 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 4.83% to $63.98 per ounce. The market's bet on the continued interest rate cut in January was strengthened, and the silver price reached a new high, driving the synchronous rise of gold, platinum, and palladium [4]. Copper - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai copper continued to rise, and LME copper broke through the $11,800 line. The macro environment at home and abroad improved, and the supply of concentrates continued to tighten. It is expected that the copper price will continue to run strongly at a high level in the short term [6][7]. Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 21,970 yuan per ton, up 0.23%. The aluminum ingot inventory continued to decline, mainly due to transportation problems in the northwest. The low inventory supported the aluminum price to fluctuate strongly [8]. Alumina - On Thursday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2,469 yuan per ton, down 1.4%. The alumina market is in an oversupply pattern, and the market short - selling atmosphere is strong, so the price continues to be weak [10]. Cast Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of cast aluminum alloy futures closed at 20,965 yuan per ton, up 0.36%. The raw material supply is tight, the consumption is weak, and the demand side is waiting and seeing. It is expected that the cast aluminum price will fluctuate at a high level [11]. Zinc - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc first rose and then fell during the day and rebounded sharply at night. The supply of zinc ore continued to tighten, the processing fees at home and abroad were under pressure, and the social inventory decreased. It is expected that the zinc price will fluctuate strongly in the short term [12]. Lead - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated narrowly during the day and sideways at night. The production of primary and secondary lead smelters decreased, and the social inventory was at a low level, but the consumption was differentiated. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate and consolidate [13]. Tin - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated narrowly during the day and closed up at night. The supply of tin ore was affected by the conflict in Congo - Kinshasa, and the demand for AI semiconductors was optimistic. It is expected that the tin price will fluctuate strongly [14]. Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, industrial silicon fluctuated narrowly. The supply is converging, and the demand is weakening. The establishment of a polysilicon platform company may drag down the short - term demand. It is expected that the industrial silicon price will decline weakly [15][16]. Steel (Spiral and Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures fluctuated and fell. The industrial data was average, and the supply and demand were both weak. It is expected that the steel price will fluctuate [17]. Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures fluctuated and fell. The demand was weak, the supply was strong, and the inventory increased. It is expected that the iron ore price will be under pressure [18]. Double - Coke (Coking Coal and Coke) - On Thursday, double - coke futures fluctuated weakly. The demand in the off - season was weak, the supply was strong, and the inventory increased. It is expected that the double - coke price will fluctuate weakly [19]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, the 05 contract of soybean meal closed flat, and the 05 contract of rapeseed meal rose 0.35%. The soybean auction results were good, and there was news that the customs clearance time of imported soybeans might be extended. It is expected that the soybean meal futures will stop falling and stabilize and enter a shock operation [20][21]. Palm Oil - On Thursday, the 01 contract of palm oil rose 0.44%. The production of Malaysian palm oil in early December increased, and the inventory was expected to rise. The rapeseed oil price rose due to quarantine problems. It is expected that the palm oil price will fluctuate within a range [23][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - For non - ferrous metals, they are trending upwards, and a seller's neutral volatility strategy is recommended; for black metals, they are experiencing significant fluctuations, suitable for a short - volatility combination strategy; for precious metals, they are rebounding and rising, and a bull spread combination strategy is advisable [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Copper (CU2601): Latest price 94,080, up 1,800 (1.95%), volume 13.86 million lots (down 0.75 million), open interest 19.04 million lots (down 1.00 million) [3] - Aluminum (AL2601): Latest price 22,115, up 185 (0.84%), volume 11.33 million lots (down 4.65 million), open interest 17.23 million lots (down 1.35 million) [3] - Zinc (ZN2601): Latest price 23,660, up 660 (2.87%), volume 9.31 million lots (down 2.51 million), open interest 8.85 million lots (down 0.47 million) [3] - Other metals such as lead, nickel, tin, etc. also have detailed price, volume, and open - interest data provided [3] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Copper: Volume PCR 0.39 (down 0.00), Open Interest PCR 0.81 (up 0.05) [4] - Aluminum: Volume PCR 0.39 (up 0.02), Open Interest PCR 0.59 (down 0.01) [4] - Zinc: Volume PCR 0.61 (down 0.05), Open Interest PCR 0.89 (down 0.07) [4] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Copper: Pressure point 94,000, support point 84,000 [5] - Aluminum: Pressure point 22,000, support point 21,800 [5] - Zinc: Pressure point 23,400, support point 22,000 [5] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Copper: At - the - money implied volatility 16.80%, weighted implied volatility 20.57% (down 0.95%) [6] - Aluminum: At - the - money implied volatility 11.06%, weighted implied volatility 12.83% (up 0.15%) [6] - Zinc: At - the - money implied volatility 10.66%, weighted implied volatility 12.62% (down 0.25%) [6] 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Directional strategy - build a bull spread combination of call options; volatility strategy - build a short - volatility seller's option combination; spot long hedging strategy - hold spot long + buy put options + sell out - of - the - money call options [8] - Aluminum: Directional strategy - build a bull spread combination of call options; volatility strategy - build a short call + put option combination; spot long hedging strategy - hold spot long + buy put options + sell out - of - the - money call options [9] - Zinc: Volatility strategy - build a short call + put option combination; spot long hedging strategy - hold spot long + buy put options + sell out - of - the - money call options [9] 3.5.2 Precious Metals - Silver: Directional strategy - build a bull spread combination of call options; volatility strategy - build a short - volatility option seller's combination; spot hedging strategy - hold spot long + buy put options + sell out - of - the - money call options [12] 3.5.3 Black Metals - Rebar: Volatility strategy - build a short call + put option combination; spot long covered strategy - hold spot long + sell call options [13] - Iron ore: Volatility strategy - build a short call + put option combination; spot long hedging strategy - build a long collar strategy [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The IMF expects the global economic growth rate to slightly slow down to 3.1% in 2026. Overseas macro themes will return to global central bank monetary policies, the US dollar exchange - rate center, and AI - driven global industrial transformation. The US may see further fermentation of the Fed's easing expectations, while the eurozone will enter a cycle of low - inflation and weak recovery. China's economy is expected to maintain stable growth under the dual - loose tone of monetary and fiscal policies. Global electrification transformation and the AI technological revolution will drive copper consumption growth [4][115]. - In terms of supply, the growth rate of global copper concentrate supply in 2026 may be less than 1.5% due to slow resumption of overseas interrupted mines and limited release of new production capacity. Domestic refined copper production is expected to decline by 2.5% year - on - year in 2026 due to low processing fees and reduced imports caused by a shortage of overseas non - US supplies [4][115]. - In terms of demand, new energy vehicles are expected to maintain strong growth, grid investment will maintain a steady growth rate, the wind and photovoltaic industries will shift from high - growth to high - quality development, and AI computing power demand will drive the data - center construction into a new cycle. It is estimated that the domestic refined copper consumption growth rate will maintain at 2.1% in 2026, and there will be a supply gap of 630,000 tons in the domestic refined copper market [4][116]. - In 2026, copper prices are expected to continue rising under the background of a warming global macro - environment and a tight supply - demand fundamental situation. The main operating range of Shanghai copper is expected to be between 83,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton, and that of London copper is expected to be between 10,300 - 12,500 US dollars/ton [4][116]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. 2025 Market Review - The copper price in 2025 showed a trend of first hitting the bottom and then rebounding. In the first quarter, it rose from 73,000 to a maximum of 83,000 due to factors such as the easing of trade concerns and AI - driven optimistic expectations. In April, it dropped significantly due to US tariff concerns. In the second quarter, it rebounded due to China's export resilience and domestic macro - economic policies. In the third quarter, it rose again due to intensified overseas mine - end disturbances. In the fourth quarter, it reached a new high under the resonance of macro and fundamental factors. By December 5, the Shanghai copper main contract rose by 25.8% year - on - year, and the London copper rose by 32.8% year - on - year [11]. - Domestic copper inventory first increased and then decreased in 2025. The social inventory of electrolytic copper in the second half of the year remained at a low level below 200,000 tons. The overall supply - demand structure was in a tight - balance state, and it is expected that the tight - balance will continue in 2026 with a downward trend in absolute inventory [15][16]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - **US and Eurozone Economic Situations**: The IMF expects the global economic growth rate to be 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. The US economy is driven by traditional manufacturing and AI, but trade protectionism may challenge the global supply - chain elasticity. The eurozone economy shows a weak - recovery trend, with the performance of Germany and France diverging [18][19][20]. - **Monetary Policies**: The Fed may have about two interest - rate cuts in 2026, and inflation is expected to rise moderately in the first half of the year and then gradually return to the 2% target. The ECB is expected to maintain a stable monetary - policy stance, and the risk of inflation rising due to tariff policies is low [21][22][24]. - **China's Economic Situation**: China's economy maintained stable growth in 2025. In 2026, China will implement expansionary fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, focusing on high - quality development, and the "15th Five - Year Plan" will promote new economic growth points [25][26][27]. 3. Copper Ore Supply Analysis - **Supply Disturbances and TC Forecast**: In 2025, global mainstream copper mines faced frequent supply disturbances, and the actual growth rate of copper concentrate supply was low. The annual long - term contract TC is expected to hit a new low in 2026 [28][32]. - **Growth Rate Forecast**: Without considering interference factors, the global mainstream mines will contribute about 980,000 tons of new copper - concentrate output in 2025, but the actual growth rate is only 1%. In 2026, the new output will be 533,000 tons, and the actual growth rate may be less than 1.5% [34]. 4. Refined Copper Supply Analysis - **Domestic Production and Reduction Plan**: China's electrolytic copper production increased in 2025. However, the state will strictly control the expansion of electrolytic - copper smelting capacity, and CSPT members may jointly cut production by more than 10% in 2026. It is expected that the domestic refined - copper output will decrease in 2026 [44][45][46]. - **Overseas Capacity Release**: Overseas refined - copper capacity release in 2026 is limited. Some overseas smelters have stopped or reduced production, and the net new capacity is only about 600,000 tons, accounting for 2.1% of the global total in 2025 [47][48]. - **Import Volume Forecast**: China's refined - copper imports showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing in 2025. In 2026, imports are expected to decline to 3.1 - 3.2 million tons due to high premiums of overseas US - dollar supplies [51][52]. - **Scrap - Copper Import and Recycling**: In 2025, China's scrap - copper imports shifted from the US to Southeast Asia. In the future, China will strengthen the internal recycling of scrap - copper resources, and the refined - scrap price difference is expected to narrow slightly in 2026 [65][66]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of November 26, 2025, the global visible inventory increased significantly. Overseas inventory had a structural mismatch, and non - US inventory may remain at a low level. Domestic inventory is expected to decline slightly in 2025 [71]. 5. Refined Copper Demand Analysis - **Grid Investment**: China's grid investment in 2025 was lower than the target. During the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, the total grid investment will exceed 5 trillion yuan, and the investment growth rate in 2026 is expected to be 3 - 3.5% [75]. - **Real Estate**: The real estate market in 2025 was in a downturn. In 2026, the industry will focus on high - quality development, but the copper consumption in the real estate sector is expected to decline by more than 10% [76][77][78]. - **Air - Conditioning Industry**: The air - conditioning industry in 2025 faced challenges such as the uncertainty of national - subsidy policy continuation and weak external demand. The copper consumption growth rate in 2026 is expected to drop to 4 - 5% [79][80][81]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: In 2025, new energy vehicles maintained strong growth. In 2026, although the purchase - subsidy policy will be adjusted, the sales are still expected to reach 1.85 million vehicles, and the copper - consumption growth rate will drop to about 15% [82][83][84]. - **Photovoltaic and Wind Power**: The global photovoltaic - installation capacity is expected to decline in 2026. China's photovoltaic - installation capacity will remain between 235 - 270GW. The wind - power growth rate may gradually get out of the trough, but the copper - consumption growth rate in the photovoltaic and wind - power industries is expected to decline [86][88]. - **AI Data Centers**: The demand for AI computing power is driving the data - center construction into a new cycle. The global data - center scale is expected to reach 95GW in 2026, bringing about 1 million tons of copper - consumption increment [91][92]. - **Overall Consumption Forecast**: In 2026, new trends will drive domestic refined - copper consumption growth, and the consumption growth rate is expected to be 2.1% [95]. 6. 2026 Market Outlook - **Macroeconomic and Fundamental Factors**: The global economic growth rate will slow down slightly in 2026. The supply of global copper concentrate will be tight, and domestic refined - copper supply will decline. The demand for refined copper will maintain growth, resulting in a supply gap of 630,000 tons in the domestic market [115][116]. - **Price Forecast**: Copper prices are expected to continue rising in 2026, with the main operating range of Shanghai copper between 83,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton and that of London copper between 10,300 - 12,500 US dollars/ton [116].