早盘磷化工板块延续昨日强势，消息面上，美国宣布将元素磷及草甘膦等关键除草剂纳入国防关键物 资。此前2025年11月，美国内政部及USGS已新将磷酸盐纳入关键矿产清单。此举导致全球磷供应链重 构，国际磷肥价格突破700美元/吨。 华鑫证券指出，建议重视草甘膦、化肥、进口替代、纯内需、高股息资产等方向的投资机会。首先，建 议重视有望进入景气周期的草甘膦行业。草甘膦行业目前经营困难，底部特征明显，库存持续下降，价 格近期开始上涨，在海外进入补库存周期的大背景下，行业有可能进入景气周期；第二，在行业整体机 会不多的情况下，精选竞争格局和盈利能力相对较好且具备量增的成长性个股；第三，在关税不确定性 的影响下，出口预计会受到影响，内循环需要承担更多的增长责任，化工行业中产业链在国内且主要需 求也在国内的有化学肥料行业及部分农药行业中的子产品，其中氮肥和磷肥、复合肥自给自足内循环， 需求相对刚性。 数据显示，截至2026年1月30日，中证细分化工产业主题指数(000813)前十大权重股分别为万华化学、 盐湖股份、藏格矿业、天赐材料、华鲁恒升、恒力石化、巨化股份、宝丰能源、云天化、荣盛石化，前 十大权重股合计占比44.82% ...

华鑫证券表示，截至2026-02-23收盘，布伦特原油价格为71.49美元/桶，相较上周+4.14%；WTI原油价 格为66.31美元/桶，相较上周+3.98%。预计2026 年国际油价中枢值将维持在65美金。鉴于当前国际局势 不确定性和对油价下降的预期，我们看好具有高股息特征，同时受益原材料降价的中国石化等。 截至2026年2月25日9:40，中证石化产业指数(H11057)上涨0.33%，成分股和邦生物上涨9.92%，云天化 上涨6.91%，兴发集团上涨3.42%，川发龙蟒上涨3.29%，万华化学上涨2.27%。石化ETF(159731)多空胶 着，最新报价1.06元。流动性方面，截至2月24日，石化ETF近1月日均成交2.2亿元。 资金流入方面，石化ETF最新资金净流入104.70万元。拉长时间看，近11个交易日内有8日资金净流入， 合计"吸金"1.68亿元。石化ETF近3月份额增长15.35亿份，实现显著增长，石化ETF最新规模达18.58亿 元，创近1年新高。 石化ETF(159731)，场外联接(华夏中证石化产业ETF发起式联接A：017855；华夏中证石化产业ETF发 起式联接C：017856) ...

来源：中国能源网 华鑫证券近日发布基础化工行业周报：工业级碳酸锂（四川99.0%min，7.58%），电池级碳酸锂（新疆 99.5%min，7.46%），PVC（CFR东南亚，6.06%），氯化铵（农湿）（华东地区，5.71%），硫酸（双 狮98%，3.85%），磷酸二铵（美国海湾，3.71%），尿素（河南心连心(小颗粒)，3.41%），PA6切片 （华东地区，3.30%），国际汽油（新加坡，3.13%），国际石脑油（新加坡，3.06%）。 判断理由：截至2026-02-23收盘，布伦特原油价格为71.49美元/桶，相较上周+4.14%；WTI原油价格为 66.31美元/桶，相较上周+3.98%。预计2026年国际油价中枢值将维持在65美金。鉴于当前国际局势不确 定性和对油价下降的预期，我们看好具有高股息特征，同时受益原材料降价的中国石化等。 化工产品价格方面，本周部分产品有所反弹，其中本周上涨较多的有：工业级碳酸锂上涨7.58%，电池 级碳酸锂上涨7.46%，PVC上涨6.06%，氯化铵（农湿）上涨5.71%等，但仍有不少产品价格下跌，其中 液氯跌幅-46.95%，硝酸跌幅-8.00%，冰晶石跌幅-6.76 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights significant price increases in industrial-grade and battery-grade lithium carbonate, while other products like liquid chlorine and nitric acid experienced substantial declines [2][4] - The report indicates that industrial-grade lithium carbonate rose by 7.58%, and battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 7.46%, with PVC and ammonium chloride also showing notable gains [2][4] - Conversely, products such as liquefied gas and liquid chlorine saw significant price drops, with liquid chlorine decreasing by 46.95% [2][4] Group 2 - The chemical industry is currently facing a weak overall performance, with mixed results across different sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [4] - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in glyphosate, fertilizers, and sectors benefiting from domestic demand and high dividend yields [4] - Specific recommendations include companies like Jiangshan Co., Xingfa Group, and Yangnong Chemical in the glyphosate sector, and China National Chemical Fertilizer as a key recommendation in the fertilizer industry [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Ningdong National Energy and Chemical Base is experiencing significant industrial growth, exemplified by Baofeng Energy's projected net profit of 11 to 12 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a growth of over 70% compared to previous years [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Baofeng Energy is expected to achieve a net profit of 110 to 120 billion yuan by 2025, up from 46 billion yuan in 2020, showcasing its strong resilience and leadership in the industry [1][2]. - The industrial output value of the Ningdong base is projected to exceed 200 billion yuan in 2024, placing it among the top ten chemical parks in China [2][9]. Group 2: Technological Innovation and Transformation - Baofeng Energy's growth is attributed to continuous technological innovation and a green transformation, including the establishment of a leading integrated hydrogen production project and the adoption of AI and IoT technologies [2][8]. - The base has achieved over 98% localization of key equipment through collaboration with national teams, enhancing its production capabilities [2][8]. Group 3: Industrial Ecosystem Development - The Ningdong base is evolving from a single enterprise model to a diversified industrial cluster, with key players like Baofeng Energy, Guoneng Ningmei, and Taihe New Materials driving innovation [2][9]. - The establishment of a complete industrial system from basic chemical raw materials to finished products has led to the creation of specialized clusters such as the "China Spandex Valley" [3][10]. Group 4: Innovation Ecosystem and Support - The Ningdong base has developed a high-level platform and innovation mechanisms to facilitate the integration of large and small enterprises, significantly reducing project entry times and attracting substantial social investment [4][11]. - Initiatives such as the AI intelligent coal blending system have improved efficiency and reduced costs for participating companies, promoting collaborative innovation [4][11]. Group 5: Future Development Strategies - The Ningdong base recognizes existing challenges in its industrial chain and aims to address these through targeted招商 and cultivation strategies during the 14th Five-Year Plan [5][12]. - Future plans include focusing on high-end polyethylene, electronic-grade chemicals, and high-performance fibers, while enhancing the resilience of the industrial chain through a "four-chain integration" approach [6][12].

Group 1 - Chemical ETF rose by 3.53%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.66 percentage points [1] - Elemental phosphorus and glyphosate were designated as critical defense materials by the U.S. government, which may benefit China's phosphate fertilizer and phosphate trade [1] - The U.S. EPA approved three glyphosate products for use on cotton and soybeans for two planting seasons [1] - The chemical fiber sector is entering a traditional peak season, with inventory depletion during the Spring Festival and rising prices for polyester and viscose fibers [1] - Tensions in the Middle East have led to an increase in oil prices, with ICE Brent crude at $71.54 per barrel, up 0.60% [1] Group 2 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to promote carbon peaking, with restrictions on high-energy-consuming products expected to be implemented, indicating a turning point for the chemical industry [2] - Real estate policies are showing signs of stabilization in first-tier cities, suggesting a gradual recovery in the industry, with a focus on investment opportunities in the chemical-real estate chain [2] - The chemical industry index (000813) rose by 3.39%, with significant gains in stocks such as Andong Biological and Xingfa Group, both up over 10% [2] - The chemical ETF closely tracks the chemical industry index, which consists of large, liquid listed companies to reflect the overall performance of the sector [2] Group 3 - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the chemical industry index (000813) accounted for 44.82% of the index, including companies like Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Industry [3]

Group 1 - The chemical sector is experiencing a positive start, with the U.S. announcing on February 18, 2026, that phosphorus and glyphosate will be classified as strategic resources [1] - The price of urea in India has reached a new high, with East Coast CFR at $512 per ton and West Coast CFR at $508 per ton, reflecting an increase of approximately $85 per ton compared to January [1] - Guojin Securities indicates that rising oil prices may lead to expectations of chemical price increases, while a potential decrease in geopolitical risk premiums could lower industry cost pressures, suggesting a favorable long-term outlook for leading midstream and downstream chemical companies [1] Group 2 - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Chemical Industry Theme Index (000813) include Wanhua Chemical, Salt Lake Co., and others, accounting for a total of 44.82% of the index [2] - The Chemical ETF (159870) closely tracks the CSI Chemical Industry Theme Index, which consists of seven sub-indices reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in related sub-industries [1][2]

2026年2月24日早盘，截至11:04，中证细分化工产业主题指数强势上涨2.81%，成分股和邦生物上涨 10.08%，川发龙蟒上涨10.00%，云天化上涨7.35%，兴发集团，钛能化学等个股跟涨。 国海证券指出，反内卷有望重估中国化工行业，后续措施有望使全球化工行业产能扩张大幅放缓。中国 化工行业具有充沛的经营活动现金流净额，一旦扩张放缓，潜在股息率将大幅提升，有望实现从吞金兽 到摇钱树的转变；同时，供给端的改变将带来景气度的止跌回升，化工标的有望兼具高弹性和高股息的 优势。 华福证券认为，随着海内外经济回暖，主要化工品价格与需求均步入修复通道。化工行业龙头企业历经 多年竞争和扩张，具有显著规模优势，且通过研发投入持续夯实成本护城河，核心竞争力显著。 数据显示，截至2026年1月30日，中证细分化工产业主题指数前十大权重股分别为万华化学、盐湖股 份、藏格矿业、天赐材料、华鲁恒升、恒力石化、巨化股份、宝丰能源、云天化、荣盛石化，前十大权 重股合计占比44.82%。 化工ETF嘉实(159129)紧密跟踪中证细分化工产业主题指数，聚焦行业"反内卷"背景下新一轮景气周 期。 场外投资者还可以通过化工ETF联接基金 ...

Group 1 - The chemical sector is experiencing significant positive developments, particularly in four key areas: phosphorus chemicals, disperse dyes, titanium dioxide, and non-ferrous metals [1] - An executive order signed by Trump on February 18, 2026, aims to secure domestic production of phosphorus and glyphosate herbicides, addressing supply chain vulnerabilities, as the U.S. relies heavily on a single domestic producer [1] - Zhejiang Longsheng announced a price increase for disperse dyes effective February 24, with a notable rise of 2000 yuan per ton for disperse black [1] - Longbai Group has issued a price adjustment notice for titanium dioxide, with cumulative price increases of 1200 yuan per ton over November and December [1] - The non-ferrous metals market is shifting, with expectations of interest rate cuts potentially influencing the spring market dynamics [1] Group 2 - As of January 30, 2026, the CSI Chemical Industry Theme Index (000813) has its top ten weighted stocks, including Wanhua Chemical and Yanhua Co., accounting for 44.82% of the index [2] - The CSI Chemical Industry Theme Index closely tracks the performance of major listed companies in the chemical sector, reflecting the overall performance of the industry [2]

长江期货聚烯烃周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 【产业服务总部能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员： 张 英 执业编号:F03105021 投资咨询号:Z0021335 2026-02-24 01 资料来源：iFIND，隆众资讯，长江期货 核心观点总结 聚烯烃：地缘冲突加剧，预计偏强震荡 01 重点关注：下游需求情况、库存情况、委内瑞拉局势、伊朗局势、原油价格波动 1 市场变化：2月13日塑料主力合约收盘价6644元/吨，周环比-2.47%。LDPE均价为8700元/吨，环比-0.57%，HDPE均价为 7375元/吨，环比-0%，华南地区LLDPE（7042）均价为6930.56元/吨，环比-1.17%。LLDPE华南基差收于286.56元/吨，环 比-1.79%，5-9月差-65元/吨（-13）。聚丙烯主力合约收盘价6568元/吨，较上周末-123元/吨，环比-1.84%。生意社聚丙 烯现货价报收6640元/吨（+0%）。PP基差收72元/吨（123），5-9月差-32元/吨（1）。 2 基本面变化：1、供应端：本周中国聚乙烯生产开工率87.30%，较上周+1.39个百分 ...