2025年，中国住宅市场在政策持续优化调整与宏观经济复杂环境的双重作用下，总体呈现出"量价企稳、结构分化、预期重塑"的复杂态势。市场告别了 过去的高速增长模式，进入一个以"止跌回稳"为核心、推动高质量发展的新阶段。展望2026年，预计市场将继续在巩固调整中寻求新供求平衡，政策将 以巩固稳中有进态势、防范化解风险为主要方向，住宅市场成交规模将在低位筑底的基础上存在结构性回暖可能，而价格整体预计将保持窄幅盘整，城市 间的分化将进一步加剧。城市更新、好房子将成为行业重要的亮点，绿色、智能、健康、安全的产品将获得溢价，社区配套和服务的重要性凸显。 ◎ 文 / 克而瑞研究中心 总 结 01 市场综述 市场综述：全年总住房成交需求相对稳定 部分二三线城市同比正增长 2025年是中国房地产市场自深度调整周期迈入企稳修复阶段的关键一年。政策由"托底纾困"转向"优化提振"， 主基调延续了"因城施策"的灵活框架，从年初延续前 期"保交楼、稳需求、防风险"的托底措施，到年中以来，政策重心明显转向全面提振市场信心、激活合理住房需求。 行业发展新模式的内涵和外延进一步丰富完善，系统性政策支持框架成型。需求端支持全面强化：全国层面，首付 ...

Core Insights - The real estate industry is undergoing a structural transformation in 2025, moving away from large-scale expansion to a focus on "quality improvement" and "functional regeneration" [1][2] - The shift is characterized by a significant decline in traditional housing development, with a 15.9% drop in real estate development investment and a 7.8% decrease in commodity housing sales area in the first 11 months of the year [1][4] - Urban renewal is emerging as a key driver for industry stability and future growth, with investments in this area expected to exceed 9 trillion yuan by 2029 [4][5] Group 1: Industry Transition - The year 2025 marks a critical point for the transition from old to new models in the real estate sector, with the focus shifting to new operational models as risks from previous expansions are addressed [2][3] - The central government has recognized the significant changes in supply-demand dynamics within the real estate market, setting the stage for a new development model [2][4] Group 2: Urban Renewal - Urban renewal is increasingly recognized as a mainstream approach, moving from marginal exploration to a central strategy for stabilizing investment and expanding domestic demand [4][5] - The focus of urban renewal has shifted from maximizing land value through large-scale demolition to enhancing the functionality of existing buildings and spaces [5][6] Group 3: Investment and Market Dynamics - In the first 11 months of 2025, total real estate development investment reached 7.86 trillion yuan, reflecting a 15.9% year-on-year decline, while urban renewal investments continue to grow [4][9] - The market is experiencing a divergence, with second-hand housing prices dropping by 7.46% across 100 cities, while first-tier cities see price increases, indicating a complex landscape for real estate investment [9][10] Group 4: Business Model Evolution - Real estate companies are shifting from a "development-driven" model to a dual focus on "development and operation," with leading firms increasing their revenue from property management and services [10][11] - Companies are encouraged to adopt a mindset of asset management and urban operation, moving away from high-turnover development strategies to long-term value extraction [11]

Core Insights - The luxury housing market in first-tier cities is experiencing significant growth, particularly in Shanghai, where sales of high-end properties have surged in 2025, with total sales exceeding 100 billion yuan [3][4][5] - In Guangzhou, the luxury market is also thriving, with the Poly Yuexi Bay project achieving a record sales figure of approximately 106 billion yuan on its opening day [2][21] - Shenzhen's luxury market has seen remarkable sales, with three major projects collectively generating nearly 300 billion yuan, indicating strong demand and high prices [3][17][19] Shanghai Market Overview - In 2025, Shanghai's luxury residential market has shown a clear structural differentiation, with over 1,300 units sold at prices above 40 million yuan, totaling over 800 billion yuan [4][5] - The average price for luxury properties in Shanghai is significantly higher than in other cities, with the top projects achieving average prices exceeding 6 million yuan per unit [7][9] - The market is characterized by a concentration of high-value transactions, with Shanghai contributing 59.4% of the total sales of new homes priced above 30 million yuan across 30 major cities [6] Beijing Market Overview - Beijing's luxury market has seen a supply of 6,240 units priced above 15 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase in transaction volume of 10.6% [11][16] - The recent auction of land in Beijing yielded a total of approximately 1,427.42 billion yuan, reflecting strong demand and high premium rates [12] - The introduction of new high-end projects, such as the Anlan Beijing, is expected to further stimulate the market, with prices ranging from 15.4 million to 18 million yuan per square meter [13][16] Shenzhen Market Overview - Shenzhen's luxury market concluded 2025 with impressive sales figures, particularly with the launch of the CITIC Xinyue Bay project, which achieved over 100 billion yuan in sales within two hours [17][19] - The average transaction price for luxury units in Shenzhen has reached record levels, with some units selling for as high as 38 million yuan per square meter [17] - The upcoming supply of luxury properties in Shenzhen is expected to continue, with several key projects set to launch in 2026 [20] Guangzhou Market Overview - Guangzhou's luxury market has seen a significant increase in transactions, with over 6,000 units sold at prices exceeding 10 million yuan, marking a 42% year-on-year increase [20][21] - The Poly Yuexi Bay project has set a new benchmark for sales in Guangzhou, with total sales reaching 110.89 billion yuan [21] - The market is shifting towards high-end products that cater to affluent buyers, reflecting a change in consumer demand from basic needs to improved living standards [23][24]

证 券 研 究 报 告 房地产行业周报（2025 年第 52 周） 推荐（维持） 北京出台楼市新政，新房周成交环比上涨 行业研究 房地产 2025 年 12 月 31 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：单戈 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522110001 证券分析师：许常捷 邮箱：xuchangjie@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525030002 证券分析师：杨航 邮箱：yanghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525090001 行业基本数据 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -5.3% | 6.6% | -1.5% | | 相对表现 | -8.1% | -11.5% | -17.8% | -13% -2% 9% 21% 24/12 25/03 25/05 25/08 25/10 25/12 2024-12-31~2025-12-30 房地产 沪深300 相关研究报告 《房地产行业重大事项点评：北京楼市再宽松》 2025-12-26 《房地产行业周报（2025 年第 5 ...

Core Insights - The Beijing land auction market in 2025 experienced significant changes, including land type adjustments, last-minute modifications, and various strategies to attract bidders, resulting in a total of 40 residential land transactions generating 142.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 8.17% [44][47]. Group 1: Land Auction Dynamics - The land auction market in Beijing is characterized by a variety of strategies, including "fat and thin" combinations to facilitate the sale of commercial land alongside residential plots [9][10]. - The introduction of new land parcels often involves last-minute changes, such as the replacement of residential plots with commercial ones, which can impact the bidding process [4][11]. - The trend of combining residential and commercial land parcels has been noted, with examples from various districts, indicating a shift in land use strategy [18][22]. Group 2: Land Characteristics and Changes - Specific land parcels have undergone significant changes in their characteristics, such as adjustments in land area, building height limits, and usage types, which can affect their marketability [6][29]. - The total area for a new land parcel in Shunyi New National Exhibition is 59,700 square meters, with a planned above-ground construction area of 128,600 square meters, where residential use accounts for 64% and commercial use for 36% [6][7]. - The practice of adjusting land use types has been prevalent, with some parcels transitioning from industrial to residential use, reflecting a strategic response to market demands [37][40]. Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The 2025 land auction market has shown a tendency towards uncertainty, with various methods employed to sell land, including adjustments in regulations and land types [44][45]. - The overall performance of the land auction market in 2025 was less favorable compared to 2024, indicating potential challenges ahead for developers and investors [47]. - The hope for 2026 is to see a reduction in the complexity of land auction strategies, which could restore confidence in the market [47].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and real estate services sectors [7]. Core Insights - The new housing value-added tax policy, effective from January 1, 2026, aims to lower transaction costs by reducing the tax rate from 5% to 3% for properties held for less than two years, which is expected to enhance the efficiency of second-hand housing transactions and stabilize the real estate market [1][2][3]. - The policy reflects the central government's commitment to stabilizing the real estate market and is anticipated to create opportunities for capable real estate companies by improving the demand-side replacement chain and optimizing supply-side quality [1][4]. Summary by Sections Tax Rate and Policy Adjustments - The new policy significantly reduces the short-term holding tax rate from 5% to 3%, representing a 40% decrease in transaction costs. For a property priced at 1 million (excluding tax), the tax burden decreases from 53,000 to 31,000 [2]. - The policy eliminates regional differences in tax exemptions, standardizing the exemption period to two years nationwide [2]. Market Dynamics and Demand - The adjustment primarily targets properties held for less than two years, which currently have low transaction willingness due to self-use demand. However, the policy is seen as a signal to stabilize demand and relax restrictions on short-term transactions [3]. - The report notes a shift in the market from new housing to second-hand housing, with a 5% year-on-year increase in second-hand housing transactions, while new housing transactions have decreased by 4% [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several real estate companies based on their creditworthiness, product quality, and operational capabilities. Key recommendations include: - Companies with strong credit and product quality such as China Overseas Development, China Resources Land, and Longfor Group [5][9]. - Companies with robust cash flow management during market adjustments like New City Holdings and Longfor Group [5]. - Local Hong Kong real estate firms benefiting from market recovery, such as Sun Hung Kai Properties and Link REIT [5]. - Property management companies with stable cash flow and dividend advantages like Greentown Service and China Resources Vientiane Life [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a recent policy change where the value-added tax (VAT) rate for housing sold within two years has been reduced from 5% to 3%, effective January 1, 2026. This aims to lower transaction costs and stimulate the second-hand housing market [5][6] - The report notes a significant decline in second-hand housing transaction volumes in major cities during the fourth quarter of 2025, with year-on-year decreases of 24.9% in Beijing, 19.4% in Shanghai, and 30.8% in Shenzhen for October-November [7][11][14] - The adjustment in VAT is expected to stabilize market expectations and promote overall recovery in the real estate sector, with specific recommendations for companies that are well-positioned to benefit from these changes [8] Summary by Sections Policy Changes - The VAT rate for housing sold within two years is reduced to 3%, while sales of properties held for two years or more remain exempt from VAT. This change is projected to save approximately 9.25 million yuan in VAT for a property priced at 5 million yuan [5][6] Market Trends - The report indicates a notable drop in second-hand housing transactions in major cities, with cumulative year-on-year increases of 11.0%, 18.5%, and 28.7% for the first nine months of 2025, followed by significant declines in October and November [7][11][14] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and the ability to cater to improving customer demands, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Land & Investment, and China Resources Land. It also suggests companies that benefit from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, as well as high-quality property management firms [8]

Core Insights - The high-end real estate market in Shanghai is experiencing a significant increase in supply, with 30% of new homes priced over 100,000 yuan per square meter, marking a 45% increase from the previous month [1] - The last week of December saw approximately 20 projects launch, with 8 projects having an average price exceeding 100,000 yuan per square meter [1] - Notable sales include the "national land king" Anlan, which achieved sales of approximately 9.077 billion yuan, and Zhonghai·Huanyu Juzhang, which sold out its initial offering [1][2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The high-end market is characterized by a "phenomenal hot sales" trend, with significant sales figures reported for several projects [2] - In December, the Yangpu Dongwaidan project launched 119 units at an average price of 138,800 yuan per square meter, with 109 units sold on the opening day despite a price increase [3] - Throughout the year, 34 projects in the high-end market achieved "daylight" sales, with 22 of these projects priced above 100,000 yuan per square meter [5] Competitive Landscape - The competition among leading real estate companies is intensifying, particularly among top players like China Resources, China Merchants, and Poly Development, as they strive for year-end performance [6] - As of November, China Resources led with 28.729 billion yuan in sales, closely followed by China Merchants at 28.505 billion yuan, with a narrow margin of only 2.24 billion yuan between them [6][9] - Zhonghai Real Estate is also leveraging its high-end projects, including Anlan and Huanyu Juzhang, to boost its annual performance, having reported 16.838 billion yuan in sales by November [7] Market Outlook - The high-end market is expected to remain a crucial support for Shanghai's real estate sector in 2025, with significant sales anticipated [10] - The competitive landscape among real estate firms is likely to evolve, with product innovation and marketing strategies becoming increasingly important for success [10] - Shanghai's luxury market is projected to account for a substantial portion of national sales, particularly for properties priced over 30 million yuan [10]

Group 1 - The article highlights the behavior of margin traders, indicating that investors are looking for investment opportunities through their activities [1] - On December 30, a total of 3,757 stocks received margin buying funds, with the top three stocks being Sanhua Intelligent Controls at 2.296 billion, Zhongji Xuchuang at 2.293 billion, and Xinyi Sheng at 1.910 billion [1] - Among the stocks with significant margin buying, 10 stocks had a margin buying amount that exceeded 30% of their total trading volume [1] Group 2 - The top stocks by margin buying amount and their respective trading volumes and percentages are detailed, with notable mentions including Qingtang City at 24.35 million and Daya Shengxiang at 12.86 million [2] - The data shows that the margin buying percentage for several stocks is high, with Qingtang City at 43.09%, Daya Shengxiang at 40.80%, and Guangming Meat Industry at 35.66% [1][2] - The article provides a comprehensive table listing various stocks, their margin buying amounts, total trading amounts, margin buying percentages, and daily price changes [1][2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The recent policy change on the value-added tax (VAT) for personal housing sales, reducing the rate from 5% to 3% for properties sold within two years, aims to lower seller transaction costs and help restore the transaction chain [2][4]. - The real estate industry has undergone significant adjustments since 2021, with front-end indicators (sales, land acquisition, and construction) declining by 50-70%, and back-end indicators (completion and investment) dropping by 30-40% [4]. - The cumulative decline in second-hand housing prices from July 2021 to September 2025 is 37%, surpassing the average decline of 34% across 42 countries [4]. - The report emphasizes the need for policies to support demand-side recovery to stabilize the market, particularly in core cities [4]. Summary by Sections Policy Changes - The new VAT policy effective from January 1, 2026, will exempt individuals from paying VAT on properties sold after two years of purchase, while those selling within two years will pay a reduced rate of 3% [5]. Market Analysis - The report highlights the critical need for repairing household balance sheets to address the ongoing challenges in the real estate market, with expectations for further supportive policies to stabilize the market [4]. - Anticipated policy measures include reductions in mortgage rates, optimization of purchase restrictions and taxes in first-tier cities, accelerated land acquisition, and support for real estate financing [4]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies two key investment opportunities: the revaluation of quality commercial real estate and the emergence of strong product capabilities in core cities [4]. - Recommended companies for investment include: 1. Commercial real estate: China Resources Land, New World Development, Kerry Properties, Hang Lung Properties, Longfor Group, with a focus on Swire Properties and New World Development. 2. Quality housing companies: Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, Greentown China, and China Jinmao. 3. Undervalued recovery companies: Jianfa Shares, China Merchants Shekou, Yuexiu Property, China Overseas Development, and Poly Developments. 4. Property management: China Resources Vientiane, Greentown Services, China Merchants Jinling, Poly Property, and China Overseas Property. 5. Second-hand housing intermediaries: Beike-W [4].