1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, and non - ferrous metals. It indicates that most markets will maintain a volatile trend in the short term, influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and macro - economic conditions. For example, the stock index futures market will remain volatile due to sector rotation and capital flow; the agricultural product market shows different trends in different varieties, with some facing supply pressure and others having potential price increases; the black metal and non - ferrous metal markets are affected by factors like raw material costs, production capacity, and international policies [19][20][25]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Core View: The market is volatile due to sector rotation. Large - cap indexes are stronger than small - cap indexes, and the technology sector shows signs of stabilizing. The short - term market will remain volatile [19][20]. - Trading Strategy: High - low trading in a high - level range; IM/IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; bullish spread options at low prices [20]. Treasury Bond Futures - Core View: The bond market continues to fluctuate with an obvious stock - bond seesaw effect. The yield downward space is limited, and the 30Y Treasury yield may have a top range of 2.20 - 2.25% [22]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see for single - side trading; hold short positions on the 30Y - 7Y term spread and try to go long on the T - contract inter - delivery spread [23]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - Core View: The supply pressure is improving, and the domestic near - month price has support, but the far - month has pressure. Rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate [25][26]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see for single - side and arbitrage trading; sell wide - straddle options [26]. Sugar - Core View: International sugar production in major regions may be lower than expected, and the international price has a bottom - grinding trend. The domestic market is expected to fluctuate in the short term and may face downward pressure in the long term [30][31]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in the range for the domestic market; wait and see for arbitrage and options [32]. Oilseeds and Oils - Core View: The increase in oil prices is limited, and they will maintain a volatile trend. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia and China shows different trends, and the supply and demand of soybean oil and rapeseed oil also vary [33][34][35]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see or trade in a high - low range; wait and see for arbitrage and options [35]. Corn/Corn Starch - Core View: The U.S. corn may fluctuate narrowly, and the domestic corn spot price is strong. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, but the upward space is limited [37][38]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on the 12 - contract corn on dips; wait and see for the 01 contract; wait for dips for the 05 and 07 contracts [38]. Live Hogs - Core View: The supply pressure increases, and the overall inventory is high. The short - term price may still face pressure [39][40]. - Trading Strategy: Short a small amount; wait and see for arbitrage; sell wide - straddle options [40]. Peanuts - Core View: The peanut spot price is strong, and the short - term market is expected to fluctuate strongly. The new - season peanut quality is lower, and the oil mill's procurement is limited [42][43]. - Trading Strategy: The 01 contract fluctuates at the bottom, and the 05 contract can try to go long lightly; wait and see for arbitrage; sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [43]. Eggs - Core View: The demand improves slightly, and the egg price rebounds slightly. The current inventory of laying hens is high, and the short - term price increase space is limited [44][45][47]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see in the short term and consider going long at low prices for far - month contracts; wait and see for arbitrage and options [47]. Apples - Core View: The new - season apple production decreases, and the cold - storage inventory is expected to be low. The market may fluctuate greatly when the new inventory data is released [48][49]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see; wait and see for arbitrage and options [50]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - Core View: The new cotton supply increases, and the demand enters the off - season. Considering the macro - economic situation, the short - term cotton price is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger [52]. - Trading Strategy: The U.S. cotton is expected to fluctuate, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger; wait and see for arbitrage and options [53]. Black Metals Steel - Core View: The raw material cost is under pressure, and the steel price fluctuates in a range. The construction steel production decreases more, and the inventory is still decreasing. The hot - rolled coil performs better than the rebar [57]. - Trading Strategy: Maintain a range - bound trend; go long on the coil - rebar spread at low prices; wait and see for options [58]. Coking Coal and Coke - Core View: The market sentiment cools down, and the price fluctuates and adjusts. The short - term driving force is not obvious, and there may be an opportunity to go long after a pullback in the medium term [59][60]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see in the short term; go long after a pullback in the medium term; hold a reverse spread for coking coal 1/5; wait and see for options [61]. Iron Ore - Core View: Adopt a bearish approach. The supply is at a high level, and the domestic demand is weak, so the ore price is expected to fluctuate bearishly [62][63]. - Trading Strategy: Go short; wait and see for arbitrage and options [63]. Ferroalloys - Core View: The cost provides some support, and the previous short positions can be reduced. The supply and demand of silicon iron and manganese silicon are weakening on the margin [64][65]. - Trading Strategy: Reduce previous short positions at low prices; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [65]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - Core View: The short - term strong - side volatile pattern continues. The U.S. government is about to restart, and the market is worried about fiscal stimulus and the change of the Fed's dovish camp, increasing the attractiveness of precious metals [66][68][69]. - Trading Strategy: Hold long positions based on the 5 - day moving average; wait and see for arbitrage; hold collar call option strategies [69]. Copper - Core View: The short - term trend is volatile. The macro - economic situation is favorable, but the supply and demand situation is complex. The copper price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range [70][71][72]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see; the long - term trend is bullish, and a low - long strategy can be adopted; the ratio may rebound; wait and see for options [72]. Alumina - Core View: Pay attention to production cuts. The supply and demand are significantly surplus, and the price may rebound after substantial production cuts [73][74][76]. - Trading Strategy: The price fluctuates weakly at the bottom; wait and see for arbitrage and options [76]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Core View: The price is strong due to the resonance of macro - economic and micro - economic factors. The overseas supply - demand is tight, and the domestic demand has resilience [77][78][79]. - Trading Strategy: Maintain a strong trend; wait and see for arbitrage and options [79]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Core View: The price fluctuates at a high level with the aluminum price. The cost provides support, but the demand is affected by the high price [80]. - Trading Strategy: The price moves strongly with the aluminum price; wait and see for arbitrage and options [80]. Zinc - Core View: Pay attention to the export volume. The supply may be eased, and the price fluctuates in a range. The upward space is limited [82][83]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in a range; hold the SHFE long - LME short arbitrage; wait and see for options [84]. Lead - Core View: Pay attention to the change of domestic social inventory. The supply is recovering, and the demand is weakening, so the price is under pressure [86][87]. - Trading Strategy: Try to short lightly at high prices; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [87]. Nickel - Core View: The cost is loosening, and the price fluctuates weakly. The supply is abundant, and the market is pessimistic about the quota adjustment [88][89]. - Trading Strategy: Short on rebounds; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [89]. Stainless Steel - Core View: The supply and demand are both weak, and the raw materials are under pressure. No specific trading strategy is provided in the given text [90].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic sector experienced a strong rebound following the Chinese Photovoltaic Industry Association's statement and JA Solar's clarification regarding false rumors, leading to significant inflows into the leading photovoltaic ETF (516290) [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of 14:30, the photovoltaic leading ETF (516290) rose by 1.39%, with intraday gains exceeding 2%, and a trading volume surpassing 84 million yuan, marking seven consecutive days of net inflows totaling over 180 million yuan [1]. - The index of the photovoltaic leading ETF (516290) saw strong performance with stocks like Sungrow Power (0.39% increase), TBEA (1.97% increase), and LONGi Green Energy (1.92% increase) showing notable gains [3][4]. Group 2: Industry Response - The Chinese Photovoltaic Industry Association issued a statement on November 12, refuting false information circulating online and emphasizing ongoing efforts to promote industry self-discipline and "anti-involution" initiatives [5][7]. - JA Solar released a clarification stating that its board secretary did not make any statements attributed to them, labeling the rumors as misleading and damaging to the company's reputation [5]. - Tongwei Co. expressed strong support for the photovoltaic "anti-involution" actions, believing that relevant policies will gradually be implemented [6]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of polysilicon has shown signs of pressure, with production expected to decrease below 120,000 tons in November due to the dry season, while demand has weakened following a significant increase in solar installations earlier in the year [8]. - The current inventory of polysilicon stands at approximately 460,000 tons, with a need for a further 30% reduction in production to normalize inventory levels by 2026 [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in the stock price of Canadian Solar (阿特斯) highlights the fragility of market sentiment, exacerbated by rumors regarding the photovoltaic industry, particularly concerning the failure of a multi-crystalline silicon storage platform, which led to panic selling across the sector [4][6]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On November 12, Canadian Solar's stock opened lower and closed at 20.56 yuan, marking a decline of 14.33%, with a trading volume exceeding 58 billion yuan [1]. - Following the significant drop, the stock continued to decline by 1.51% on November 13, reaching a low of 19.7 yuan before recovering [2]. - The stock price surged from a low of 12.3 yuan on October 29 to a high of 24.28 yuan on November 11, nearly doubling in just ten trading days, which contributed to the overall rise in the photovoltaic sector [4]. Group 2: Industry Context - The decline in stock prices was triggered by rumors about the failure of key initiatives aimed at curbing competition within the photovoltaic industry, which were perceived as authoritative due to their source [4][6]. - The photovoltaic industry is currently facing severe challenges, including overcapacity and price wars, leading to a difficult market environment across all segments, from polysilicon to solar modules [6]. - The rise of trade protectionism in overseas markets has further complicated the industry's growth prospects, necessitating industry consolidation and restructuring, which will take time to materialize [6]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The stock market often reacts to expectations, and Canadian Solar's recent positive news led to a buildup of profit-taking positions, which were quickly liquidated in response to negative rumors [7]. - The future performance of the photovoltaic industry will depend on improvements in fundamental conditions, such as capacity reduction, price stabilization, and the introduction of new technologies that can drive growth [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the price trends and key support and resistance levels of various futures contracts on November 13, 2025 [2][3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro News and Trading Alerts - China - Spain leaders met and witnessed the signing of 10 cooperation documents in economic, technological, and educational fields [7]. - Chinese and US economic officials emphasized the importance of economic and trade cooperation [7]. - Chinese officials welcomed foreign retail enterprises to invest in China [7]. - Seven Chinese government departments jointly issued an opinion to strengthen science and technology education in primary and secondary schools [7]. - The US House of Representatives will vote on a temporary appropriation bill, potentially ending the 43 - day government shutdown [8]. - The US Treasury Secretary announced upcoming "substantial" tariff news and a "tariff dividend" plan [8]. - Different Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts [8]. 2. Commodity Futures - related Information - On November 12, US and Brent crude oil futures prices fell, with OPEC lowering its global oil demand forecast [9]. - On November 12, international precious metal futures generally rose, driven by factors such as the approaching end of the US government shutdown and geopolitical risks [9]. - On November 12, most London base metals rose [10]. - The EIA adjusted its 2025 and 2026 crude oil price forecasts [10]. - The IEA believes that global oil and gas demand may continue to grow until 2050 [11]. - OPEC expects the oil market to achieve supply - demand balance in 2026 [11]. - The Simandou iron ore project officially started production, with proven reserves of 4.4 billion tons [11]. - On November 12, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar and the RMB central parity rate both rose [11]. - On November 12, the US dollar index fell slightly, and non - US currencies showed mixed performance [12]. 3. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast 3.1 Stock Index Futures - On November 12, the main contracts of stock index futures showed different trends, with overall weak rebounds [12][13][14]. - A - share markets were volatile on November 12, with some sectors rising and others falling [14]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange International Investors Conference was held, with officials announcing measures to optimize the capital market [15][16]. - Overseas investors' holdings of A - shares have increased, and institutions are generally optimistic about A - shares in 2026 [15][16]. - On November 12, the Hong Kong stock market rose, with different performances among sectors [16]. - On November 12, US and European stock markets showed different trends, and institutions are cautious about the future performance of US stocks [17]. - It is expected that stock index futures will oscillate and consolidate on November 13, 2025, and will have wide - range oscillations in November [18]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - On November 12, the main contracts of ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures rose slightly, with weak rebounds [33][39]. - On November 12, the central bank conducted 195.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 130 billion yuan [34]. - On November 12, short - term Shibor rates declined [34]. - It is expected that the main contracts of ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures will have wide - range oscillations on November 13, 2025 [36][40]. 3.3 Precious Metal Futures - On November 12, the main contract of gold futures had a slight decline, with weakening upward momentum [40]. - On November 12, the main contract of silver futures rose significantly, hitting a record high [48]. - It is expected that in November 2025, the main continuous contracts of gold and silver futures will have strong wide - range oscillations, and the silver futures will hit a record high. On November 13, 2025, both are expected to oscillate strongly [40][41][49][50]. 3.4 Base Metal Futures - On November 12, the main contracts of copper, aluminum, and tin futures rose slightly, with varying degrees of upward momentum [53][57][61]. - It is expected that in November 2025, the main continuous contracts of copper, aluminum, and tin futures will have strong wide - range oscillations. On November 13, 2025, they are expected to oscillate strongly [53][57][61]. 3.5 Other Commodity Futures - On November 12, the main contracts of polysilicon, lithium carbonate, rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, crude oil, fuel oil, and PTA futures showed different trends [65][66][72][75][77][84][89][94][96]. - It is expected that on November 13, 2025, polysilicon and lithium carbonate futures will have wide - range oscillations; rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, and PTA futures will oscillate weakly; crude oil and fuel oil futures will oscillate weakly [66][73][75][77][85][89][94][96].

| 硅片现货价格(wafer) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目 | 最高价 | 最低价 | म्ह्येस्थ | 波动% | | P 型 M10 单晶硅片 -182*182 mm /150µm | | | | | | N 型 G10L 单晶硅片-182*183.75 mm /130μm | 1.3 | 1.28 | 1.28 | -2.29% | | N 型 G12R 单晶硅片 - 182*210 mm /130μm | 1.3 | 1.25 | 1.26 | -5.26% | | P 型 G12 单晶硅片-210*210 mm /150µm | | | | | | N 型 G12 单晶硅片-210*210 mm /130μm | 1.65 | 1.6 | 1.6 | -3.03% | 本周参与价格统计企业名单： 单位:元/片 更新日期:2025-11-13 价格根据 12 家企业 P型 M10 单晶硅片、N型 G10L 单晶硅片、N 型 G12R 单晶硅片、P 型 G 12 单晶硅片、N 型 G12 单晶硅片的季度产量占比,通过加权平均整理所得 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the determination of policies in the photovoltaic industry, indicating that the industry will not cease its efforts until it overcomes vicious competition [1] - As of November 13, 2025, the CSI Photovoltaic Industry Index (931151) rose by 2.84%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Shangneng Electric (300827) up by 20.00%, Lianhong Xinke (003022) up by 10.00%, and Jinlang Technology (300763) up by 8.17% [1] - The Photovoltaic ETF Fund (516180) increased by 2.34%, closing at 0.88 yuan, and has seen a cumulative rise of 2.89% over the past two weeks, ranking 2nd out of 11 comparable funds [1] Group 2 - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Photovoltaic Industry Index include Yangguang Electric (300274), Longi Green Energy (601012), and TBEA (600089), collectively accounting for 60.74% of the index [2] - The weight and performance of the top stocks are as follows: Yangguang Electric (17.58%, up 2.47%), Longi Green Energy (8.38%, up 3.42%), and TBEA (7.31%, up 3.40%) [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the recent rumors regarding the photovoltaic industry, which led to a significant decline in stock prices of major companies in the sector, with some experiencing a drop of over 5% in a single day [1] - The rumors included claims about a company secretary stating that certain industry self-regulation initiatives were failing, raising concerns about the progress of self-regulatory mechanisms within the photovoltaic industry [1] - In response to the rumors, major companies like JA Solar issued urgent clarifications, denying the statements attributed to them and emphasizing the importance of relying on official channels for accurate information [1] Group 2 - The photovoltaic industry has faced significant losses over the past two years due to supply-demand mismatches and low-price competition, prompting a "anti-involution" initiative that began in the second half of 2024 [2] - The initiative includes measures such as production cuts and price controls to ensure that prices do not fall below production costs, with a focus on the upstream polysilicon segment, which is critical for the overall supply-demand balance [2] - Despite some leading polysilicon companies like GCL-Poly and Daqo Energy achieving profitability by Q3 2025, many downstream companies in the silicon wafer, cell, and module sectors continue to report losses [2]

Core Viewpoint - The rumor regarding "JinkoSolar (002459) executives stating that the 'storage platform has failed'" has circulated widely, leading to a significant decline in the A-share photovoltaic equipment sector on November 12 [2] Company Response - JinkoSolar issued a clarification announcement (Announcement No. 2025-105) on the evening of November 12, stating that the company's board secretary did not make any such remarks in any internal or external meetings, and that the information is a baseless rumor that misleads the public and harms the company's and industry's reputation [2] - The company reserves the right to pursue legal action against those spreading false statements [2] Industry Reaction - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association quickly released a statement addressing the false information circulating online, responding to the rumors [2] - JinkoSolar urged investors, partners, and the public to obtain accurate information through the media designated by the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the company's official channels, emphasizing the importance of not believing or spreading rumors to maintain a healthy market order and public opinion environment [2]

截至2025年11月13日 10:24，光伏ETF(159857)盘中换手5.99%，成交1.71亿元。跟踪指数成分股上能电 气(300827)上涨18.41%，联泓新科(003022)上涨10.00%，微导纳米(688147)上涨8.72%，锦浪科技 (300763)，固德威(688390)等个股跟涨。 截至11月12日，光伏ETF(159857)最新规模达28.13亿元，最新份额达32.09亿份，均创成立以来新高。 从资金净流入方面来看，光伏ETF(159857)近4天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得1.66亿元净流入， 合计"吸金"3.93亿元。 11月12日，光伏板块受网络不实传闻影响出现大幅回调，行业及相关企业迅速回应澄清。当日晚间，晶 澳科技发布澄清公告称：近日，网络上流传关于公司的不实言论，引发部分关注。对此，公司澄清并郑 重声明如下：公司董事会秘书未在任何内部或外部会议上发表过网传言论。相关内容系网络谣传，严重 误导公众认知，损害公司及行业声誉。针对不实言论的传播行为，公司保留通过法律途径追究相关责任 的权利。 当日稍早之前，中国光伏行业协会官方发布声明，明确指出网络流传的相关小道消息均为不实 ...

Group 1 - The photovoltaic stocks have rebounded today, with New Special Energy (01799) rising by 4.4% to HKD 8.78, Flat Glass (601865) increasing by 2.86% to HKD 12.96, Xinyi Solar (00968) up by 2.41% to HKD 3.82, and GCL-Poly Energy (03800) gaining 2.27% to HKD 1.35 [1] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association issued a statement denying rumors about the collapse of a polysilicon storage platform, labeling the circulating information as false and malicious attempts to undermine the photovoltaic industry for profit [1] - Liu Yiyang, the Executive Secretary of the Photovoltaic Industry Association, emphasized the determination of policies and stated that the photovoltaic industry will not cease until it overcomes the vicious competition [1] Group 2 - JA Solar Technology (002459) clarified that its board secretary did not make any statements in internal or external meetings regarding the circulated rumors, asserting that the related content is a serious misrepresentation of public perception [1]