2025 年 04 月 29 日 与传统风格相关性更低，A 股资产配置 新方向：大成中证全指自由现金流 ETF （159235）投资价值分析 ——指数基金产品研究系列报告之二百四十七 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 告 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 方思齐 A0230123090003 fangsq@swsresearch.com 联系人 方思齐 (8621)23297818× fangsq@swsresearch.com 益 量 化 研 究 权 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 第2页 共25页 简单金融 成就梦想 股 票 基 金 证券分析师 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 ⚫ 现金流 ETF 已经成为海外市场热门产品，国内产品申报火热。国内自由现金流产品目前 处于起步阶段，而海外现金流产品已经取得了丰硕的发展成果。其中规模领先的 COWZ 规模已超 200 亿美元。近期国内现金流 ETF 迎来集中申报浪潮， ...

Group 1 - As of April 28, a total of 495 stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets have experienced net outflows of main funds for five consecutive days or more [1] - The stock with the longest consecutive net outflow is Gao Meng New Materials, with 17 days, followed by *ST Jiu You with 16 days [1] - The largest total net outflow amount is from Light Media, with a cumulative net outflow of 2.024 billion yuan over five days [1] Group 2 - China Duty Free has seen a cumulative net outflow of 1.803 billion yuan over 13 days, ranking second in total outflow [1] - The stock with the highest net outflow ratio relative to trading volume is *ST Longyu, which has seen a 26.28% decline over the past six days [1] - The table lists various stocks with their respective net outflow days, amounts, ratios, and cumulative price changes, indicating a trend of declining stock prices among those with significant net outflows [1][2] Group 3 - The gold stock ETF (product code: 159562) tracks the CSI Hong Kong and Shanghai Gold Industry Stock Index and has seen a 1.39% decline over the past five days [4] - The ETF has a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.23 times and has experienced a net inflow of 3.337 million yuan, with the latest share count increasing by 1 million to 430 million [4]

Group 1: Market Performance - The three major indices experienced adjustments, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.2%, Shenzhen Component Index down 0.62%, and ChiNext down 0.65% [2] - Over 1,100 stocks rose in the two markets, with a total trading volume of approximately 1.06 trillion yuan [2] Group 2: Key Sectors and Stocks - PEEK materials saw significant gains, with New Han New Materials (301076.SZ) rising over 12% and Zhongxin Fluorine Materials (002915.SZ) up over 5% [2] - The gaming sector performed strongly, with Sheng Tian Network (300494.SZ) increasing over 9% and other companies like Youzu Network (002174.SZ) and Perfect World (002624.SZ) also rising [2] - Nuclear power concept stocks performed well, with Huayin Power (600744.SH) and Tianwo Technology (002564.SZ) both rising 10% [3] Group 3: Regulatory Developments - The National Press and Publication Administration approved 118 domestic online games in April 2025, with a total of 510 game licenses issued so far this year [2][3] - The approval of 10 new nuclear power units marks the first domestic nuclear power project approval in 2025, with an estimated total investment of around 200 billion yuan [3] Group 4: Sector Weakness - Real estate, beverage manufacturing, and white goods sectors faced significant declines, with companies like Shilianhang (002285.SZ) dropping nearly 10% [4] - The automotive and battery supply chain also weakened, with major players like BYD (002594.SZ) and CATL (300750.SZ) experiencing declines [4]

长按即可参与 A股三大指数今日集体下跌，截至收盘，沪指跌0.2%，深成指跌0.62%，创业板指跌0.65%， 全市场成交额10767亿元，较上日缩量603亿元。全市场超4100只个股下跌。 盘面上， PEEK材料、银行、电力等涨幅居前，地产、消费等板块陷入回调。 01 近期泡泡玛特也发布了 发布了一季度财报。具体来看，2025年一季度，该公司收入同比增长 165%—170%，其中国内收入同比增长95%—100%，海外收入同比增长475%—480%。境内 线 下 渠 道 同 比 增 长 85%—90%； 线 上 渠 道 同 比 增 长 140%—145% 。 受 益 于 哪 吒 2 、 The Monsters x海贼王等热门新品的拉动，线上线下均继续呈现高速增长。 境外延续爆发式增长，欧美增速领跑。海外亚太地区同比增长345%—350%；美洲同比增长 895%—900%；欧洲同比增长600%—605%。 东兴证券推测，泡泡玛特已将发展重点转向欧美，效果显著，开店+IP本地化+线上布局快速提升 品牌影响力。欧美市场消费力强，未来空间广阔。美国关税方面影响较小，主要因关税以成本计 算，而海外毛利率在70%以上，且 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a slight decline in early trading, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.10% to 3291.73, the Shenzhen Component down 0.33% to 9884.70, and the ChiNext Index down 0.41% to 1939.11 [1] - The Hong Kong market showed mixed results, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.14% to 21948.98 and the Hang Seng Tech Index up 0.31% to 4998.33 [2][3] Banking Sector - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China reached a new historical high, with other banks like Chongqing Bank rising over 5% [4][6] - Several banks, including Qingdao Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and Beijing Bank, also saw gains [4] Consumer Sector - Pop Mart in Hong Kong surged over 10%, reaching a historical high, and ranked first on the US App Store shopping chart [6] - The consumer sector faced challenges, with significant declines in food and beverage stocks, including Youfu Food and Guoguang Chain, which hit the daily limit down [9][11] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector in A-shares showed weakness, with stocks like Tianbao Infrastructure and Yucheng Development hitting the daily limit down [11][12] - Other real estate companies, including Vanke and Greentown China, also experienced declines of over 3% [8] Cross-Border E-commerce - The cross-border e-commerce sector gained momentum, with Dongbei Group achieving four consecutive trading limit ups, and Ningbo United hitting the trading limit up [13] - The government approved the establishment of cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zones in Hainan and 15 other cities, which is expected to boost the sector [13] Bond Market - The bond market saw a rise in the 30-year main contract by 0.10%, while the 10-year contract increased by 0.09% [3][4]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a downward trend with all three major indices declining, where the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.33% to 3284.17, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.39% to 9878.43, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.53% to 1936.87 [1] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.2% to 21936.79, while the Hang Seng Tech Index saw a slight increase of 0.16% to 4990.78 [2][3] Sector Performance - The consumer sector in A-shares faced a significant pullback, with food and tourism stocks leading the decline. Notable declines included Youyou Foods and Guoguang Chain, which hit the daily limit down, and other stocks like Beiyinmei and Wanmei Biological dropping over 5% [5][7] - The real estate sector in A-shares also saw substantial losses, with Tianbao Infrastructure and Yuhua Development hitting the daily limit down, and several other stocks declining over 5% [7][8] Bond Market - The bond market showed strength, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.1%, the 10-year contract increasing by 0.09%, while the 5-year contract fell by 0.02% [3][4]

其 他 报 告 2025年04月28日 晨会纪要 | 国内市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 上证综合指数 | 3295 | -0.07 | 0.56 | | 深证成份指数 | 9917 | 0.39 | 1.38 | | 沪深300指数 | 3787 | 0.07 | 0.38 | | 创业板指数 | 1947 | 0.59 | 1.74 | | 上证国债指数 | 224 | 0.00 | 0.01 | | 上证基金指数 | 6776 | 0.19 | 0.71 | | | | 资料来源:同花顺iFinD | | | 海外市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 中国香港恒生指数 | 21981 | 0.32 | 2.74 | | 中国香港国企指数 | 8081 | 0.29 | 2.32 | | 中国台湾加权指数 | 19873 | 2.02 | 2.46 | | 道琼斯指数 | 40114 | 0.05 | 2. ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [5] Core Insights - The report indicates a narrowing of the underweight position in the real estate sector, with an increase in holdings of leading and quality private enterprises [10] - Public fund holdings in the real estate sector decreased by 1.98% quarter-on-quarter, totaling 54.84 billion yuan, with a relative underweight of 0.49 percentage points compared to standard industry allocation [10] - The report highlights a recovery in the market value of residential property development, with a 7.19% increase in holdings, while non-residential property development saw a significant decline of 52.14% [10] Summary by Sections Public Fund Holdings - Total market value of public fund holdings in the real estate sector was 54.84 billion yuan, down 1.98% quarter-on-quarter [10] - The sector's holdings accounted for 0.79% of total stock investment, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points from the previous quarter [10] - The underweight position relative to standard industry allocation decreased by 0.06 percentage points [10] Heavyweight Stocks - The threshold for the top 15 heavyweight stocks was 50 million yuan, down 75.05% from the previous quarter [18] - The top five stocks by market value were Poly Development, China Merchants Shekou, Binjiang Group, Vanke A, and Jindi Group, accounting for 27.95% of the sector's total market value, an increase of 2.85 percentage points [18] - A total of 15 real estate companies saw increased public fund holdings, with the top three being Jindi Group (+12 funds), Binjiang Group (+12 funds), and New Town Holdings (+11 funds) [20] Northbound and Southbound Capital - Northbound capital holdings in the real estate sector totaled 12.77 billion yuan, down 22.09% quarter-on-quarter [33] - The top five stocks for northbound capital were Poly Development, China Merchants Shekou, Vanke A, Zhangjiang Hi-Tech, and Daming City, accounting for 54.07% of the sector's total market value [33] - Southbound capital holdings increased by 8.59% to 88 billion yuan, with the top five stocks being China Resources Land, China Overseas Development, Country Garden Services, Vanke Enterprises, and Sunac China [40] Market Performance - The new housing market saw a transaction volume of 2.13 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 12.65% [4] - The second-hand housing market recorded a transaction volume of 2.27 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 18.76% [4] - The land market had a total transaction area of 1.314 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 17.1% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on non-state-owned enterprises benefiting from debt resolution, policy relief, and demand improvement [47] - Recommended stocks include quality non-state-owned enterprises such as Longfor Group, Jindi Group, New Town Holdings, and Binjiang Group [47] - Emphasis on regional enterprises with differentiated city fundamentals and market share growth logic [47]

各行业超级龙头，"漂亮50"：A50ETF基金（159592）跟踪的A50指数布局各行业超大市值龙头股，这 些绩优大白马在供给侧改革的趋势下受益于市场集中度提升，在业绩披露期或更受资金青睐。 A500指数成份股中，广誉远、珀莱雅涨超10%，卫星化学、新易盛、沪电股份、甘李药业涨超7%，中 际旭创、胜宏科技涨超5%，其余成份股积极跟涨。 A50指数成份股中，爱尔眼科、万华化学涨超4%，立讯精密、中国铝业涨超2%，洛阳钼业、紫光股 份、万科A涨超1%。 A股核心资产代表，"A股的标普500"：A500ETF（159339）跟踪的A500指数以不足A股市场10%的成份 股数量，覆盖全市场63%的总营收和70%的总净利润，或是大家长期布局我国资本市场高质量发展趋势 的有力工具。 消息面上，今年一季度，我国GDP同比增长5.4%，经济增速在全球主要经济体中名列前茅。4月政治局 会议会议强调，要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币 政策。今年以来，地方新增专项债发行提速，一季度新增专项债累计发行量接近1万亿元；2025年超长 期特别国债也已开启发行。相关方面表示，我国政策空间仍然较足 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [13]. Core Insights - Increasing the supply of high-quality housing is expected to positively impact consumer demand and stabilize land finance. Housing serves as both an investment and a consumer good, with high-quality housing representing a new consumption category that can alleviate pressures from oversupply and income expectations [2][10]. - The policy goal of stabilizing the market is becoming more proactive, with improved market expectations. The rapid decline in industry volume and price may have passed, highlighting structural opportunities in core areas and quality properties [6][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality housing supply in opening up new market space amid weak overall supply-demand dynamics, which is crucial for boosting consumer demand and stabilizing land finance [10]. Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index decreased by 1.13% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 by 1.51%, ranking 30 out of 32 industries. Year-to-date, the index is down 3.74%, with a slight outperformance of 0.02% relative to the CSI 300 [7][16]. - The performance of the development sector was primarily negative, while property management and rental sectors saw some gains [7]. Policy Developments - The Central Political Bureau meeting highlighted the need to increase the supply of high-quality housing and optimize existing property acquisition policies. Local policies, such as Xiamen's new housing voucher initiative, aim to enhance flexibility and efficiency in housing choices [8][18]. - The report notes that the focus on urban renewal and the construction of a new real estate development model is crucial for maintaining market stability [10][18]. Sales Data - In sample cities, new home sales showed a year-on-year decline of 6.8%, while second-hand home sales increased by 20.1%. Year-to-date, new home sales are up 1.0%, and second-hand sales are up 29.3% [9][19]. - The report indicates that the sales performance of new homes is under pressure, while second-hand homes are performing relatively well [9][19].